Blamerbell Briefs

The End

2007-06-26T12:46:00.000+01:00

I had hoped to bring you news of a potentially historic step forward for Welsh politics. But as usual, the politicians have contrived to delay proceedings.

Plaid's assembly group was due to meet today to make a final decision on whether to recommend a Rainbow or a Red-Green coalition to its National Council on July 7. However, they've decided to postpone that meeting until tomorrow because Labour's Welsh Executive meets this evening.

I understand that the momentum is still with the 'Brown' deal. In the short term it may seem less ambitious, but in the long term it would deliver more powers to Wales (if they can win a referendum) and bring Plaid closer to its long-term aim of independence.

Perversely, an election campaign spent convincing people that government mattered more to Plaid Cymru than distant objectives of autonomy looks to have put Plaid in a position to push for the latter while surrendering the opportunity to take overall control of the former. It seems also that Labour's veiled threat to make life difficult for a Rainbow government in Westminster has carried some weight.

But there's also the problem of the Liberal Democrats. At the outset, they could have had a deal with Plaid or Labour. But now, a significant chunk of AMs from both parties have serious reservations whether they can be trusted. After all, they will host a leadership election in the next few months and there's no telling whether that would preempt another flip flop.

So, I won't get closure in time for my last ever post. But as this chap knows only too well, there's never a good time to bow out.

I had written a long and tortuous adieu. But I've shelved that. Instead, take a look at the archives, if you wish, and judge for yourselves.

All I will say is that I've had great fun writing this blog and watching it grow. By the end, it was almost a part-time job (albeit one that paid even less than I got on the fruit counter at Tesco). Now that I have a full-time job, I'm afraid it's not going to be possible to continue.

It's a shame, because it's been a blast. It has never ceased to amuse me that I'm hated by some for being 'anti-Plaid' and loathed by others for being 'anti-Labour'. The Tories are too jolly to care and the Liberal Democrats are just happy to be talked about. In the context of Welsh politics, that's probably just about the right mix.

This is my 600th post - time to say goodbye and hang up the briefs.

Thanks for reading.

Hwyl fawr!

It's not over till it's over

2007-06-25T12:00:00.000+01:00

The Western Mail is today reporting that the 'Brown' coalition is more or less a done deal. Just a few days ago, all their correspondents were still predicting a rainbow coalition.

They've also called a Lab-Lib deal and a previous rainbow pact as a formality before now.

If there's one thing this circus of tribalism and talks has taught us, it's that there's no telling what will happen next.

Plaid have a group meeting tomorrow, and the only thing that's certain is that it will go on for bloody ages. I can think of at least five AMs who will dig in for a fight. Don't expect the Rainbowistas to simply bend over and accept their fate.

UPDATE: BBC Wales' Westminster Correspondent David Cornock has given up asking his bosses for a blog and pushed ahead with his own. It's helpfully titled notabbcblog.blogspot.com

The Blamers 2007 - A star-bereft award ceremony

2007-06-24T18:20:00.000+01:00

The more prescient among you may have come across whispers in some far-flung corner of the internet hinting that this blog will soon be following Tony Blair into retirement. These whispers have some truth, because I started them. (As Peter Black writes today, why would cheeky Wales on Sunday Journalist Matt Withers find his own stories when he can just pinch them from someone else?)

More on that later. In the meantime, I shall press on with my end of year political awards. Of course, it's not the end of the year and on current form no politician really deserves an award, but now is my last chance.

Regular readers will know that this blog has been enriched over the past eight months by references to certain characters who have very kindly allowed me to reduce their incredibly complex personalities to simple stereotypes. Either that, or they've been too stupid or lazy to notice:)

So, I would like to present The Blamers 2007. A pair of my crusty briefs will be finding its way to the lucky winners, with grateful thanks from Wales' first and only blogespondent.

Heinz Ketchup Award for Best Source: Jonathan Morgan
After taking part in my Honest John experiment, Tory golden boy Jonathan Morgan really got into blogging. So much so, in fact, that he began to email me with other feature ideas. Would I like to start an item about 'hilarious' anecdotes from the campaign trail? JM's own offering went something like this:

"Towards the end of the discussion a man stood up and introduced himself as being from Germany. As a pro European I have no problem with this although he proceeded to lecture us on the environmental damage caused by war, and how the illegal Iraq war had been a disaster... Being lectured by a German on international conflict is a bit like being lecture by King Herod on 1st century AD methods of childcare!"

Jonathan, that's why I'm the journalist and you're the politician. Let's keep it that way.

Marmite Award for Splitting the Audience: Huw Lewis
You either love him or hate him, it seems. I need only mention his name and you will split into your various tribal camps, either extolling his virtues or hoping to wipe your behinds with his political career. I do hope he becomes First Minister one day, because I suspect a medieval battle will break out on the streets of Cardiff.

Poor Huw. I reckon what he needs is a Red-Green coalition and a great big hug from Mohammad Ashgar. They have more in common than you might think.

Carol Voredman Award for Services to Spelling: Glyn Davies
This was a close one, because Alun Cairns' crap spelling has taken on an aquatic theme of late, what with Alex Salmon AND Salmon Rushdie in the news recently. But Glyn still pips it for his 'bulldozer' approach to blogging and the English language generally, which always makes for an entertaining read.

Oxfam Award for Buying the Ties Most People Wouldn't Even Use to Hang Themselves: Peter Black
Proof that there's nothing geeky about being a blogger.

British Heart Foundation Award for Buying the Scarves Most People Wouldn't Even Use to Hang Themselves: Helen Mary Jones
It took me a long time before plucking up the courage to take the piss out of HMJ for her loyalty to pashminas. I genuinely thought she had some sort of hideous neck disfigurement and therefore it would be in poor taste to make jokes at her expense.

Turns out she just happens to really like scarves, which is to be admired as scarf-wearing can sometimes be a hazardous activity.

Armitage Shanks Award for Taking all the Shit: Rhodri Glyn Thomas
Runner-up: Carl Sargeant
By April, I considered this blog to be doing reasonably well. I made absolutely no attempt to remain anonymous and for obvious reasons, most people in Plaid Cymru knew who was behind the briefs. I was shocked, therefore, to discover that in the run up to the election Rhodri Glyn Thomas had been probing the BBC's political editor to find out the identity of the 'diawl' who continually mocked him on the internet. Perhaps if he spent less time eating buffet lunches he'd have been able to work it out himself:)

Joseph Goebbels Award for Frank and Open debate: Leighton Andrews
You lot are a volatile bunch, and no matter what I write, someone usually likes to take offence. That's why I've steered clear of taking on all of you en masse. You are most dangerous when you are united (even if you do write an awful lot of rubbish in the comments sometimes!). Unfortunately, nobody told Leighton Andrews (and if they did, he pressed on anyway). The result? This little ding dong. Hopefully the blogosphere has emerged all the stronger for it. Group hug.

Just William Award for Services to Short Trousers: Alun Cairns
Runner-up: Ioan Bellin
According to his Facebook page, the Conservatives' new baby-faced Education spokesman has been out clubbing twice this week AND he's been frolicking with the rah-rahs in the annual Hunt Ball. Despite that, he still gets asked for I.D. when trying to buy bottles of Pimm's for the gymkhana and he's never been allowed onto the scariest rollercoasters at Alton Towers.

Nevertheless, Alun continues to punch above his weight in the assembly, if only because he weighs less than Eleanor Burnham's make-up bag.

And that concludes The Blamers 2007. No politicians were harmed in the making of this blog entry, though certain egos have again taken a bit of a beating:)

Britain's got boring

2007-06-23T11:57:00.000+01:00

Pol Pot singing Nessun Dorma? Now, that really would be a must-see. Firstly, he'd have to rise from the grave (an achievement matched only in showbiz by Bob Monkhouse's apparent ability to be funnier dead than alive), and secondly, whatever you think about his politics, the act would at least be different.

Paul Potts, on the other hand, is just another media-manufactured 'ringtones to riches' personality. His voice is OK, but if you're ever queuing outside Madame Tussaud's in London and hear the warbles wafting across the street from the Royal Academy of Music, you'll hear better.

His story is good: mobile phone salesman to celebrity singer, we like that. But he might as well have been a hairdresser, a lollipop lady or a stuttering sixth-former. We've all seen this formula before.

Absolutely the worst aspect of this phenomenon, however, is its one trick ponyness which is, frankly, driving me potty.

Pavarotti has already done Nessun Dorma to death, so much so that it's been top of Classic FM's most whistled for decades. And boy, can Pavarotti sing. In an operatic context, the aria lives on. But in the bastardised world of 'pop-classical', other performances inevitably sound no better than a broken karaoke machine.

'Nessun Dorma' translates as 'Let no one sleep', of which there is no danger when Port Talbot's Paul is screaming down the telly. I really do wish the chap well, but I can't help thinking that if he cared so much about music, he'd have had the balls to sing something else. Becuase not only is he a pale imitation of Luicano Pavarotti, he's also a pale imitation of Russell Watson.

Working class nobody struggles against the odds to sing Nessun Dorma repeatedly on television? Yep, the media's told that story before. Frankly, what's different about Paul Potts? Answer: nothing.

No doubt, PP can make a fortune singing on floating stages and in football stadiums. But if I'm not mistaken, his ambition was to be an opera singer. Unfortunately, the world of opera doesn't drop everything to accommodate celebrity. Roles are earned through hard graft, years of training and talent.

All the signs are that Paul Potts' career will be a lot more Madame Tussaud's than Madame Butterfly. I do hope he proves me wrong.

Big fat amnesty event

2007-06-22T13:29:00.000+01:00

Not another sausage roll and wine in a box gathering to keep Rhodri Glyn Thomas nourished and lubricated, I hear you cry.

Well, no.

Instead, it's my somewhat novel and absolutely not likely to happen suggestion to clear the air if or when the assembly gets full law-making powers and twenty extra members.

Over the last tortuous couple of months, one thing has become abundantly clear: some AMs are in the wrong political party.

Of course, they'd never own up to it, and there's something very British about that. It's like when we accidentally take the wrong turning in the car. The easiest thing to do is to turn around right away and double back. But something in us makes us persevere - 'If I just take this left and then follow that road it'll all be... ah, bollocks!'.

Some of our AMs, I fear, are lost in the Stevenage roundabout network. Their political compasses are way off track.

And so, when the assembly inevitably expands some time in the future, why not have an amnesty so that politicians can start again with a clean slate and stand on a different ticket?

We already know that Glyn Davies voted Plaid Cymru, Leighton Andrews was a Liberal and Alun Davies was a big fish in Plaid. As for Mohammad Ashgar, there's a story doing the rounds that he tried to join every other party (bar the BNP) before eventually stumbling into bed with Newport's hordes of Welsh nationalists.

More recently, it seems there are people in Labour who should be in Plaid and people in Plaid who should be with the Tories. There are people with the Tories who should be in UKIP and as for the Lib Dems, well, they could probably take their pick.

They know who they are. Perhaps we should send them the membership forms, just to give them something to think about?

Farcembly?

2007-06-21T13:12:00.000+01:00

Today's twist: Labour MPs have told Rhodri to cut out his after dark soirees with Adam Price and IWJ and snuggle up to Mike German and the Lib Dems instead.

The Western Mail's Tomos Livingstone is now predicting a Rainbow coalition will rise from the ashes of the Red-Green talks, while Peter Black says everyone should get a move on.

Quite right. With more waffle than a Birdseye potato processing factory flying through the air in Cardiff Bay, little actual work has been going on. There are still no committees, for instance, so Thursdays are just used for filing fan mail and eating subsidised lunches.

Those in the Welsh political bubble think this is all just fine. These are exciting times. This is the new politics. And other such guff.

But outside, in the real world, it doesn't look quite so groundbreaking. People are simply wondering why they aren't getting on with it.

At the outset, every new twist seemed to offer endless intrigue and interest. But now, 'developments' are treading over old ground. Labour + the Lib Dems? We've been there before.

How many times, I wonder, can this cycle repeat itself before the whole thing descends into farce?

Labour u-turn a sign of things to come

2007-06-20T19:34:00.001+01:00

It is exactly two weeks since Rhodri Morgan wrote to Ieuan Wyn Jones and Mike German outlining the terms of a possible agreement to keep him in government.

Since then, Plaid have been negotiating a beefed up deal with Labour, the underlying document of which is just about finished, I understand.

Now, whaddyaknow - Business and Budget Minister Jane Hutt has announced an independent commission to review the Barnett Formula and consider tax-varying powers for the assembly.

A fortnight ago, Labour offered Plaid and the Lib Dems a "seen to be independent inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat." In other words, not an independent inquiry at all.

In just fourteen days, Labour have gone from stubborn refuseniks to willing co-conspirators. They are, [cough, splutter, vomit] experimenting with [shh, don't tell Tony]... compromise.

We've heard a lot about the 'new politics' which is a necessity now that power hangs in the balance between the parties in Wales. Well, here's an an example of it in operation.

And if Labour can announce this before the Red-Green agreement is even finalised, just imagine what could be coming our way if and when the deal is done.

What Ieuan wants

2007-06-20T13:54:00.001+01:00

No decision yesterday in Plaid's group meeting, so that means the future governance of Wales is likely to hinge on next Tuesday's weekly get-together.

Some people have already been speculating about the way Plaid AMs will vote, with almost everyone agreeing that Ieuan Wyn Jones is in the Rainbow camp.

Of course, he would just say he wants whatever's best for Wales, which is a bit like that ruthless lady from the Apprentice saying she wants what's best for Alan Sugar.

His own personal political inflections (and ambitions) must inevitably be playing a huge part in his thinking. It's just that he hasn't bothered sharing them with the rest of us. The BBC reports that he'll be meeting party members across Wales shortly to "explain the choice he believes Plaid should make." I'd wager he'll be doing a lot more tergiversating (love that word) than explaining, given that the details of the Red-Green pact have yet to be revealed.

IWJ is a very shrewd politician, even if there is something Yorkshire Terrieresque about his television appearances. And you can bet that whichever way the group votes next Tuesday (if indeed it is next Tuesday), it will subsequently appear to be the option Ieuan has 'preferred' for some time. If you like, he has hard-boiled the egg before it has had a chance to splatter all over his face.

But in the meantime, he can influence that decision. In the end, whether we advance towards a Rainbow or a Red-Green government comes down to the fancy of fifteen Plaid AMs. Ieuan need only convince seven of them and history is his (although a few of them need no convincing).

There is, however, one problem: the deal the negotiating team have been working on feverishly with Labour. What if that document ends up matching the All-Wales Accord on most issues, and trumping it on the key issues of the Welsh language and a referendum on further powers? After all, Adam Price is involved again, and we all know what he wants.

If that were the case, the Rainbow might become very difficult to defend and some of its advocates may be forced to recognise that perhaps one of its attractions was getting closer to the Tories all along.

What Ieuan wants may not necessarily be what he gets. Either way, though, he won't let on.

1414 UPDATE: In one minute I will be respecting a moment of contemplation and support for BBC journalist Alan Johnston (left) who has now been missing for 100 days. You can sign the petition and read more about the BBC's campaign for his release HERE.

On an altogether different note, everyone's favourite dog-handling, vest-wearing bald guy has written his idyosyncratic take on the world of Welsh blogging, which you can read HERE.

The Gordon Brown meme

2007-06-20T13:35:00.000+01:00

I've been tagged by Iain Dale and Matt Wardman to say two things about Gordon Brown.

Two words, of course, would be easy. Good off! Or bugger luck! Or something like that:)

Anyway, heregoes...

Two things Gordon Brown should be proud of:
His (Ed) Balls
His Cow's lick

Two things he should apologise for:
Supporting the England football team
Cardiff North (or was that Cherie's fault?)

Two things he should do immediately when he becomes PM:
Promote Peter Hain
Demote Peter Hain

Two things he should do while he is PM:
Favours for rich people
Make St David's Day a national ~~binge drinking day~~ holiday

I hereby tag fresh-faced newbie Seneddwr, Sanddef (because he loves everything to do with blogging), and anyone who'd like to share their wisdom with us in the comments because I am still ~~struggling~~ striving to be non-political and so I don't think I've really done this properly!

Assembly FC

2007-06-19T12:07:00.000+01:00

From Alun Davies AM:

Dear all,

Somewhat surprisingly, and certainly unbelievably [no kidding], I have been asked to captain the Assembly's Football Team in the annual Parliamentary Shield competition supported [somewhat ironically] by McDonald's.

This year the [pissup] event takes place in London on the weekend of the 4th and 5th August, giving us the chance to play against elected representatives from Westminster, the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Scottish Parliament for the Parliamentary Shield and a [happy meal] cheque for the charity of our choice.

By taking part in the tournament we not only have the opportunity to show off our footballing skills (!) and win money for charity but we also have the chance to [get drunk with] meet many colleagues from the different Parliaments and Assemblies across the UK, talk tactics with our celebrity manager Ian Rush and watch the Community Shield match between Manchester United and Chelsea at the new Wembley stadium the following day (Sunday 5th August)! [uh oh, freebie alert]

If you don't feel you are able to join in the actual football game (but have
a husband, wife or partner who would) then you are more than welcome to join the team! [Note further gratuitous use of the exclamation mark!]

If you are interested in joining us or would like to find out more about the
tournament then please contact me and I will endeavour to answer any
questions that you may have. [!!!]

Places in the squad are limited to 15 so if I could ask that you let me know
of your interest before Thursday (21st June) so that I can ensure you are
sent all of the relevant details ASAP.

Best regards,
Alun

Alun Davies AC / AM

Llafur - Y Canolbarth a'r Gorllewin
Labour - Mid and West Wales
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Well, isn't that droll? Anyway, I'm appointing myself manager, so heregoes:

Goalkeeper: Dafydd El. Nothing gets past him, and if it did he'd glass them with a bottle of Ty Nant.

Left Back: Huw Lewis. Didn't get promoted, see.
Right Back: Where we started if Mike German does another u-turn.
Centre Back: Rosemary Butler. The James Collins of AFC.
Centre Back: Carl Sargeant. Charged with mopping up.

Left Wing: Helen Mary Jones
Right Wing: Ieuan Wyn Jones
Deputy Midfield Ball-winner with responsibility for passing sideways: Leighton Andrews
Playmaker: Alun Cairns (if he can get time off school)

Up front: Eleanor Burnham and Peter Black

Referee: Trish the Law

UPDATE: Page six of today's Western Mail - can anyone spot something funny?

What has Tony Blair done for us?

2007-06-19T10:26:00.001+01:00

During the election campaign, Tony Blair made one fleeting visit to Wales. Even that was enough for the Beeb's Betsan Powys, who struggled to pin him down for an interview.

By contrast, Blair made four visits to Scotland. Also by contrast, Labour lost Scotland and hung on in Wales.

It's probably fair to say that by 2007, Blair isn't quite the same electoral asset he was. "Give him the send off he deserves," cried Plaid Cymru's election advert - evidently believing Tony Blair deserved an ambivalent election result followed by continual flitting between various different coalition permutations.

So, in ten years, what has TB done for us?

Devolution. Yes, that's a big one.

Alun Michael. Not such a big one.

Introduced top-up fees so the assembly could scrap them. Bit of a messy one.

We've been called the 'F*cking Welsh' for daring not to vote Labour in droves and he's been called Lionel for not being someone more famous at Rhodri Morgan's mum's breakfast table.

But otherwise?

Answers on a Best of Luck in your New Job card please...

Hain, Gay, Cornish, Cym

2007-06-18T19:13:00.000+01:00

Now, there's a title which is sure to wreak havoc with the search engines:)

Anyway, thank you, dear readers, for your patience with yet another post about possible coalitions. Heaven forbid that anything else should be happening in the world. But I do get emails and messages from time to time from people with various motivations (not all of them sanitary), so I thought I'd flag up a few...
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A chap called Philip Hosking emails to ask for my views on the 'Cornish Question'. Much to my surprise, it is not "butter or clotted cream or both?" (to which the answer would be both), but rather the extent to which Cornwall be granted autonomy from the United Kingdom:

"I am a Penryn born Cornishman from the United Kingdom and a growing Cornish and Breton speaker. I have been raised by a family and community that has endowed me with what can be best described as a Cornish national identity, another way to look at it would be of Cornish ethnicity.

The UK government has so far failed to recognise the Cornish people under the Council of Europe's framework convention for the protection of national minorities.

The UK government has failed to give the people of Cornwall the democratic referendum on greater autonomy and a devolved assembly that they have shown a demand for.

I would like to know your position on national and linguistic minorities and in particular the Cornish question in the United Kingdom."

Personally, I'm all for the idea of Cornish independence, if only because it would create a nation with a worse football team and indigenous accent than Wales.
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Peter Hain will leave no stone unlobbied in his bid not to finish last in the Labour party's Deputy Leadership Contest.

He might not get more votes than the other candidates, but he proudly writes on his blog that he has more Facebook friends than them. That's still almost a thousand friends fewer than Ming Campbell, who by Hain's logic must be the most successful politician of all time.

So that's the yoof and the unions covered, they mutter at PHHQ, now for the gays...

Hain informs us (his devoted Facebook chums) that PinkNews is running a Labour leadership survey, which you can sabotage HERE:) The message is accompanied by a list of all the wonderful things he's ever done for the LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bacon and Tomato) community, though he makes no mention of services to tanning.
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And Sion Jobbins of dotcym.org (who would surely prefer to be Sion Jobbins of dotcym.cym) emails to remind me of the ongoing campaign to put cym on the map (just as long as we don't tell the Russian porn barons how to pronounce it).

Lib Dems won't do a 'Lib Dem'

2007-06-18T13:33:00.000+01:00

A while back, I wrote a post titled Red + Green = Brown. It seems I was being more prophetic than I had intended, since it was written on the day Gordon Brown came to town. From that moment, the Red-Green deal has had a whole lot more momentum.

Why?

Well, Gordon doesn't really fancy beginning his premiership with two rogue Celtic states gnawing at his ankles. A rainbow coalition in Wales would see the Tories back in power and would give David Cameron a huge PR boost. Worse still, Labour would look like a party of opposition again.

New Labour arguably won the last two general elections on the waning momentum of their enormous first victory in 1997. Ten years ago, Tony Blair had his cake and ate it, feeding on a Britain bloated with optimism. Now, there's barely a crumb of that good will left.

Gordon Brown is going to have to rebuild. Scotland is already lost, but he can't afford to lose too much more ground. Rhodri Morgan says he spoke to the PM in waiting about the situation in Wales. I'd imagine it was the other way around. Brown probably spoke to Rhodri and told him to sort it out.

But Rhodri being Rhodri decided he'd muddy the waters by opening the door to the Lib Dems again and the media have rushed to have a merry little walk around Mike German's well-worn garden path.

There isn't much else Mike German can say other than if Plaid and Labour agree on a document, he'll go back to his party and "look again". He's still "committed" to the All-Wales Accord and has no intention of "steering that ship up onto the rocks". Hardly the words of a man with his hands on the rainbow rug, poised to pull.

And if he did pull, he might only fall flat on his arse. By that time, a Red-Green document would already have been drawn up. Much like the All-Wales Accord, it would be released to the public and, if the election results are anything to go by, it would excite more people than any Lib-Lab alternative. But much worse than that, it was the Lib Dems who were ridiculed for steering the rainbow ship up onto the rocks; they could really suffer from sinking the Red-Green ship too.

UPDATE: Something for the Lib Dems to sing and dance about at last: Britain's Got Talent winner, Pol Pot, is a former Lib Dem councillor.

Blamerbell en Paris

2007-06-17T12:54:00.000+01:00

What's happening then?

Don't expect me to tell you:)

As you may know, I've been away at the CNN European blog awards, which I'm pleased to say I won.

I went to Paris for the ceremony on Friday and it was actually rather a big deal. There was a huge media fair being held at the Porte de Versailles which, for future reference, is not really taxiable from the centre of town (unless you are willing to remortgage your maison).

The awards ceremony itself was quite a grand affair - there were a number of elaborate speeches before I was eventually called. I was given the prize by a chap called Emmanuel Chain, who is sort of the French Jeremy Paxman (for looks, think David Ginola rather than Tony Adams). I'm sure he said some nice things about my blog but it was all in French and all I can remember from GCSE is how to ask for an ice cream or report that my cello has been stolen.

And that is very much how the rest of the evening went - much French being spoken and much failing to understand on my part. Later, I went to a student party with the guy who runs the second placed blog, drank a couple of beers and asked for lots of ice creams.

Incidentally, if you want a taxi in Paris, don't automatically assume that a taxi sitting in a taxi rank with its light on and door open is necessarily willing to take you anywhere. I got in, sat down, said 'Gare du Nord', even said please (though now I wish I hadn't bothered) before I was unceremoniously ejected by an all too rude Frenchman.

So, it's good to be back in the UK. And it's great to see that Welsh politics has been as unpredictable as ever in my absence.

Hopefully, I'll catch up with all that later, though I hear Plaid are now leaning towards a deal with Labour, if only because Labour will find it almost impossible to deliver it.

What's happening to the assembly on the telly?

2007-06-14T15:51:00.001+01:00

Once upon a time I went for a chat with someone in the assembly's Cathays Park building.

I had to wait a while before the meeting, so I sat in the lobby. It's quite a grand place actually - lots of marble and columns and that kind of guff.

Anyway, my most vivid memory of this little spell was sitting next to a giant screen which, after a while, began broadcasting live coverage of the latest plenary session.

The receptionist, clearly fed up with the likes of Janice Gregory and Eleanor Burnham breaching her peace, stood up and turned it off. And that was that. Even the assembly can't stand to watch the assembly.

So it's no surprise, then, that it may soon be impossible to watch proceedings live on television. S4C2 currently broadcasts those thrilling debates each Tuesday to Thursday when the assembly is in session. But it now has plans to broadcast Welsh language children's programmes instead.

This story appeared in the Western Mail at the beginning of May and Sanddef flagged it up soon afterwards. Then, a fortnight later, S4C published THIS consultation paper detailing three possible ways forward:

Option 1
• Continue to broadcast the proceedings of the National Assembly during term and fit the new programmes around it.

Option 2
• Cease broadcast of proceedings of National Assembly and broadcast an uninterrupted New Service 7 days a week.

Option 3
• Continue to broadcast National Assembly proceedings as at present and also broadcast an uninterrupted New Service 7 days a week using additional and new capacity. (unlikely)

I'm not entirely sure where we are with this at the moment, but I've heard that the service could be moved entirely online. Given the reliability of the assembly's website, this would be a real blow.

Statistically, I wouldn't be surprised if more people watch the Ironing Channel than S4C2's political coverage. So in the end, it comes down to profitability versus public service, and nothing obliges S4C2 to continue to pump out the Senedd's mostly inconsequential drones.

Nevertheless, I'd be sad to see it go - I really like the 'totty' who present it:)

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By the way, I'm now off to Paris for the CNN Blog Awards ceremony so I'm afraid there will be no posting until Sunday evening at the earliest.

That means I won't be able to react to Plaid Cymru's National Executive meeting on Saturday or any other minor political events I would normally blow out of all proportion. There are, of course, plenty of other great blogs to check out in the meantime, including THIS offering from the Western Mail's new Senedd correspondent.

Something else!

2007-06-13T15:12:00.000+01:00

Some of you may have seen an earlier version of this post, relating to the CFJ/CNN European award for the best student news blog.

Suffice to say, though, that I am nominated for the award, where I will have to fight off tough competition from France and Serbia.

(Even that) is something of a shock really, given that I mostly specialise in strained metaphors and the kind of news most people wouldn't touch with a bargepole covered in their own faeces.

Thank you all for contributing not just to this blog but to the emerging Welsh blogosphere in general, which was virtually non-existent (with some notable and excellent exceptions) when I started back in October.

As I sit and watch assembly members coax each other into a deep and intensely boring slumber in the Senedd, it's good to know that there's a potentially unlimited space online for lively political debate. The medium has certainly proved itself in recent months and long may it continue.

On another note, Rosemary Butler is chairing her first session in the chamber. Pink jacket, red hair - is that wise?

Plaid won't do a 'Lib Dem'

2007-06-13T12:22:00.000+01:00

There's been a lot of chatter over the past few hours about Plaid re-opening talks with Labour over a formal coalition.

Some of the usual suspects, bless them, have been getting quite upset. Stomp, stomp, stomp. We want our bloody rainbow.

Well, as I said yesterday, they are still odds on to get it. So kem down.

Have any of Plaid's rainbowista AMs publicly changed their position? No.

Has Plaid's leader given any indication that he's keen on a deal with Labour? No.

Has Gordon Brown suggested that he'd whip up Labour MPs to get a referendum on further powers through parliament? No (in fact Tomos Livingstone reports Labour MPs saying quite the opposite).

Were Tory and Plaid AMs drinking together in the Eli Jenkins last night? Probably.

Do we know who the identity of the 'senior source' that broke the red-green story? No.

Worth bearing in mind, I think, that I've seen people quoted as 'senior sources' before who were fourth placed constituency candidates in the assembly election. Can this chap persuade the majority of the party's AMs, party members and national council to change their mind? You decide.

But taking all that's been said in the past few weeks, it seems Plaid's assembly group still overwhelmingly back a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. They wouldn't have dismissed the red-green option so quickly on the previous occasion if that wasn't the case.

And it is they, ultimately, who will make the decision which will go forward to the national council in July. The national exeucitve, which meets on Saturday in Aberystwyth, is merely an advisory body. So, whatever happens, there will not be another Lib Dem moment, whereby a bunch of obscure councillors and receding hairlines overrule directly elected politicians.
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Plenary Live:

Alun Cairns has had a hair cut - makes him look even more like the work experience kid.

Eleanor Burnham just attempted to break the world speed-speaking record while asking her tabled question to the new Sustainability Minister, Jane Davidson.

According to Ms Davidson's website, incidentally, she's still the Education Minister.

Of course, to the majority of the population, all this means nothing at all, so I may stop now. They're talking about footpaths again...

Has Brynle Williams been sunbathing - or has he just done up his shirt collar too tight? He's certainly very red. Perhaps he's getting worked up about those badgers he's prattling on about.

Now, the moment we've all been waiting for: Questions to the Minister for Education, Culture, the Welsh Language, Laid-back Self-confidence, Going Grey Gracefully and Everything Else on the Universe just to make Jane Davidson feel bad.

Alun Davies quotes from Alun Cairns' blog. The little man favours academic selection. Of course, I expect Alun Cairns to retaliate with a quotation from Alun Davies' blog: 'Happy Christmas'.

How long has Rhodders got?

2007-06-12T16:00:00.001+01:00

That's the question I was asked today. And for once I didn't chafe my precious parts sitting on that well-worn pundit's fence. Instead, I leapt tentatively into the 'He'll be gone by autumn' camp.

Predictions are usually wrong in Welsh politics and there are plenty of twists and turns yet. But you'd have to say that, on current form, the rainbowistas look set to make a move, perhaps before the summer's out.

Quite simply, Ieuan Wyn Jones wants it too much. Tactically, it might be better to keep the Labour option open as long as possible to at least make it look like the rainbow was forced to make a move. But at the moment, IWJ's poker face is about as convincing as a Didier Drogba dive.

If it were to go ahead, though, I think one of the biggest changes might be in 'foreign affairs'. I know that isn't exactly part of the assembly's remit, but with a nationalist first minister in Scotland and a sympathetic ear in Northern Ireland, the rainbow would look to put pressure on Westminster as part of an alliance with the other devolved institutions.

This could be anything from stating a view on foreign policy (remember Rhodri's refusal to have a view on Iraq?) to demanding greater representation in negotiations with the European Union. I had a chat with Plaid's Adam Price MP about this yesterday before a programme on Radio Scotland, and he suggested the Celtic clout of the devolved governments would look to work as a pincer movement on Westminster to secure, for example, a better financial settlement.

Alex Salmond has already made calls for the resumption of Joint Ministerial Committees between the devolved institutions, and also 'Council of the Isles' style meetings (including the Republic of Ireland), with the UK government.

Of course, these may go ahead whether Rhodri stays or not, but I imagine a Plaid-led government would be anxious to sign-up and secure added legitimacy for the assembly as a national institution in its own right.
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The latest offering from the sparingly-used poll tool:

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UPDATE: Impeccable timing as ever.

Vaughan Roderick reports that Plaid are set to agree to further talks on a deal with Labour in their meeting this evening.

Labour have apparently offered at least three cabinet positions and firm promises on a referendum on further powers, a commission to review the Barnett formula and a Welsh Language act.

To be updated...

Sources in Plaid say it'll have to be an offer they can't refuse. Could Brown sanction the passage of a referendum through the Houses of Parliament? After all, he can't be keen on the idea of starting his premiership with Labour in opposition in both Scotland and Wales.

Either that, or Ieuan Wyn Jones has finally got control of his poker face. This might just be the smokescreen that enables him to say Labour can't deliver.

Wee bits and bobs

2007-06-11T19:25:00.000+01:00

I'll be taking part in a live debate over on BBC Radio Scotland this evening (10pm) about the future of devolution.

The new Scottish government, led by Alex Salmond, isn't too pleased that Tony Blair apparently struck a deal which could lead to the Lockerbie bomber being sent back to Libya to complete his prison sentence without informing it.

Meanwhile, the Secretary of State and the First Minister in Wales are on such good terms that Rhodri Morgan is backing Harriet Harman for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour party.

You can listen to the programme, Scotland at Ten, online this evening.

I am also booked to pop up again on tomorrow's AM/PM on BBC 2 Wales - better than Big Brother every time:)

In other news, Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones has torn up Labour's olive branch, ground it into sawdust, shoved it in his mouth and sprayed it all over Rhodri Morgan's surprised face shouting "Boo hoo to you, Sir!"

He still fancies forming his own government, you see.

Tories Cook up a storm

2007-06-11T15:22:00.001+01:00

You all scoffed last week when I hinted the Conservatives might try and bring down the government over lack of movement on a new Welsh language act.

But with travel agent Thomas Cook appearing stubbornly monoglot in its unwillingness to embrace the Welsh language, the Tories made the first move.

They are calling for a review of the Welsh language act. You'll remember that Labour's legislative proposals stopped short of it, though it's a big deal in the proposed rainbow coalition programme for government.

Plaid have since chipped in with their own calls for increased Welsh language legislation. Well, they do everything together these days, don't they?

Labour's masterplan is to exclude the Conservatives from the consensus they have been seeking. They are trying to raise issues which isolate the Tories. But the men in blue are attempting quite the reverse and on today's form, seem to be having some success.

UPDATE:
Q: What's the worst thing you can do when you're embroiled in a storm about the Welsh language?

A: Put up a bi-lingual sign which butchers it.

Even Jade Goody would do a better job of public relations than that.

A Great British Summer

2007-06-11T13:28:00.000+01:00

Apologies in advance that blogging will be somewhat intermittent this week. I have limited internet access while I try to get my life sorted.

In the meantime (the possibility of any work permitting) I'm hoping to indulge in a few of the summer activities I missed out on last year in Japan.

First it's off to Cambridge for a garden party. Chinos, Pimm's and chamber music: lovely.

Then, I'm hoping to go to Wimbledon to see some tennis. I'll bring my own strawberries this time after choking on the nine carat gold pips of the world's most expensive fruit on previous visits (read THIS for my previous take on overpriced fruit - yes, I write articles about everything).

If I'm still unemployed in July, I'll take in some Proms. These are quite wonderful occasions which are unfortunately marred by the sweaty, vapid flag-fest of the last night (read THIS to see exactly what I think about that).

What strikes me about these activities, though, is that they are all unquestionably British affairs. And while I'm all for cultural independence, I'm in favour of a good dose of cultural interdependence aswell.

Perhaps I'm just out of the loop, but what exactly would a Welsh summer entail? I know a fair few of this blog's readers will be roughing it in whichever town the Eisteddfod happens to collide with this August, but other than that we don't seem to make the most of the summer months here in Wales.

Or maybe we should just get over our inverse snobbery and gorge on a bit of croquet instead? It's much more fun than you'd think.

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By the way, please do keep those little tidbits of gossip coming for my Wales on Sunday column. It's for one week only.

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UPDATE: This blog is one of twelve to be nominated for the CNN blog awards - a contest to find the best student blog in Britain and France. Whooppee!

Blamerbell on Sunday

2007-06-10T20:20:00.001+01:00

This week, I shall be deputising for Matt Withers while Wales' ~~favourite~~ only Sunday political journalist goes off to Italy to bronze his bald patch.

The column is called 'Spin Doctor' because 'Matt Withers' didn't sound sexy enough for the cesspit of sleaze and crap metaphors that is contemporary Welsh politics.

And so, I am asking you please to send me little tidbits of gossip and amusing goings-on from the Welsh political world this week. There's got to be something interesting happening. Do it for the sake of your own vanity, or to bugger your boss. Whatever, just whop it in an EMAIL to me.

It kind of defeats the point if you write it in the comments section, so let's reserve that for made-up gossip instead.

I'll make a start...

Peter Black is Swansea West Warhammer champion, 2007.

Carl Sargeant turned down the Economic Development, Health and Education portfolios before eventually settling for the 'You get to sit around the cabinet but you can't make notes' brief.

Jonathan Morgan has announced he won't be contesting Cardiff North in the next general election so he can concentrate solely on becoming Nick Bourne's biographer.

And Plaid's Gang of Four are currently in the recording studio preparing to release a single - "4 become 1". It's thought to include the lyrics, "Be a little wiser baby, put it off, put it off."

And that's as near as you'll get to a popular culture reference from me:)

Email address: blamerbell@googlemail.com

Before Thursday please.

I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Red + Green = Brown

2007-06-09T02:03:00.000+01:00

Hardly the most inspiring colour, is it?

And yet, whether Wales is a car or an aeroplane, there seems to be mileage in the red-green Plaid-Labour idea again. Adam Price is all for it. And Edwina Hart used her first interview since the twentieth century to put her weight behind it too.

(Quite how any assembly member has managed to dodge the Welsh press for so long is a complete mystery. After all, there are only sixty of them. There should probably be a Dragon's Eye rota, just to even it out. At least that would give Helen Mary Jones some well-earned time off to go scarf shopping.)

Plaid and Labour in a grand coalition? Lefties everywhere are getting erect nipples just thinking about it.

But they haven't had to face Ieuan Wyn Jones. Does this man really fancy playing second fiddle to Rhodri's 'same-old' septet?

No.

He'd quite like to captain the ship himself. That's why the opposition are already behaving like a government in waiting in Cardiff Bay, with joint strategies and chummy tell-all telephone conversations between the leaders.

Adam Price is evidently doing everything he can to make a deal with Labour more palatable. After all, his father was a miner don't you know.

For all it matters, Ieuan Wyn Jones' father might as well have been Aneurin Bevan. He's still pushing for the rainbow.

Six weeks, then, to make or break a government. And at the end of it, most of the parties in Wales could be faced with seismic splits.

Labour is set for an internal battle whether it teams up with Plaid Cymru or not. And if Plaid go with Labour, Ieuan Wyn Jones' position would look very shaky. But then again, a deal with the Tories would cause a massive rupture with the left of the party. Meanwhile, Mike German and Nick Bourne really need to deliver the rainbow coalition to be sure of their jobs.

My prediction: I'll go out on a limb and say that three of the parties will have different leaders by the next assembly election. Within the next few months there'll be some sort of deal between the parties. And that means losers as well as winners.

Bob Atkins

2007-06-08T02:39:00.000+01:00

I will not be blogging today as a mark of respect for Bob Atkins, Director of the Diploma in Broadcast Journalism at Cardiff University, who died last week. His funeral will be held today at Thornhill Crematorium.

Bob was probably the best broadcast journalism trainer in the UK for the past fifteen years and I feel greatly privileged to be among the last few to learn from him.

Before that, Bob was editor at Radio Wales and an executive producer at the BBC World Service.

There's hardly a newsroom in the country that doesn't have someone fed and nurtured on the Atkins diet. He was a stickler for accuracy and good writing above all else, and I'll always value the advice he has given me over the last year.

I still can't believe he's gone. He was a funny, kind and inspirational character whose dedication to his students was so great he'd even listen again to our breakfast shows in the bath at home.

Journalism won't be the same without him.

Cheers, Bob.

What is Wales?

2007-06-07T10:13:00.001+01:00

A little known fact about the new Government of Wales Act is that there is now provision for a minister, outside the cabinet, with responsibility for metaphors.

So far, the theme has been transport.

"We have got a new car," said Rhodri after the election. "We are certainly not going to leave it in the garage."

Then, this week...

"Wales is an aircraft, and I am its pilot," Rhodri told the Queen.

"Can you ask the trolley lady to bring me a little something," said Dafydd El.

Still to come, Wales is a boat, a bicycle and a blimp.

After that, we'll be moving on to vegetables.

Rhodri's letters

2007-06-06T17:07:00.001+01:00

Here's what Rhodri Morgan is offering Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems in exchange for keeping him in power. Compare and contrast...
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Dear Ieuan,

How about some of this?

1. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determins the way the Assembly is funded.

2. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.

3. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.

4. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.

5. a joint group to be set up involving Plaid Cymru and Labour members in the assembly and Westminster to assess the pre-conditions suitable for a referendum to be triggered on Scottish-style powers and to advise on the preparations which would need to be put in place prior to a referendum being called.

6. regular meetings between the First Minister and the leader of the opposition e.g on a weekly basis.

Tories r evil 4 eva.

Rhodri. xxx
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Dear Mike,

Fancy a ride on my aeroplane? Here's what's on board:

1. an opportunity to work with government ministers on bidding for the powers to legislate on the Welsh Language and affordable housing.

2. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a
Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determines the way the Assembly is funded.

3. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.

4. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.

5. to set up a cross-party team to explore and report upon the practical experience of introducing proportional representation (the single transferable vote system) in local government in Scotland.

6. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.

Let's do it. Yeah. Groovy.

Rhodders. X
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So, Rhodri's taken the sting out of the health issue by giving in on hospital reconfiguration, for the time being.

But how come the Lib Dems get offered deals on the Welsh language and housing and not Plaid?

Looks like Rhodri's trying to become the prism which splits the rainbow.

The opposition parties could, of course, do most of this themselves with Labour in opposition. But without taking power "willy nilly", will they be given the opportunity to get worked up enough to justify a vote of no confidence?
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Plaid's Adam Price MP is blogging again. Today he sets out his conditions for a deal with Labour, which he says is preferable to an arrangement with the Tories. These include a formal coalition with Plaid AMs in the cabinet, a joint programme for government and a referendum on full law-making powers within four years.

Reasons to disagree on first day back at the office

2007-06-06T00:34:00.000+01:00

Rhodri Morgan today unveils ~~the Labour manifesto~~ his government's legislative programme, with the emphasis on CONSENSUS.

So committed is he to this cause, he failed to take part in a televised debate with the leaders of the other parties to explain to the people of Wales what this might actually mean in practice.

If the intention was damage limitation, the effect was quite the opposite; the other leaders spent almost the entire programme reminding viewers of the first minister's absence.

Never mind, Carwyn Jones was deputising and, as ever, sounded like someone from a self-help tape. He managed to tell those agitated nurses to bugger off in really the most relaxing way.

Anyway, the point that the would-be rainbow coup leaders made repeatedly was that the assembly is today being presented with a legislative programme, and yet there was no consultation with the other parties in advance. Labour seem to be saying take it or leave it.

Mike German got as close as possible to facial expression number 3: visibly annoyed. And the others didn't seem too happy either.

I gather the front page (or thereabouts) of the Western Mail will report Ieuan Wyn Jones saying the government has six weeks to deliver or face being kicked out by him and his triple alliance lieutenants. He denied that on television. Apparently he said there would be a 50:50 chance of a ~~putsch~~ vote of no confidence within that time frame.

As I said right back when the Lib Dems finally got their knickers out of Alex Carlile's twist, people will expect the rainbow to move quickly if it is to move at all.

The six weeks figure is a calculated move from Plaid to give Rhodri the spooks. It's playing politics again. But this game is getting a little tiring, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any disagreement today.

Labour are expected to put forward the same bunch of policies they previewed so enthusiastically during the election campaign. For the other parties, there's not much to get worked up about except, perhaps, the issue of the Welsh language.

If Labour go with the legislation they proposed back in April, they will set in motion the process of appointing a Dyfarnydd, falling well short of the new Welsh Language Act demanded by the opposition parties and a number of lobbying organisations. Carwyn Jones tried to prepare the ground for this last week. But it went down as well as a vomit smoothie.

This could well be the first sticking point for the new consensus-building regime. And if there's no agreement - what then? Do the Tories topple Labour because there aren't enough rights for the Welsh language? Or can a government only be brought down over something a bit more life and death?

All the signs are that there'll be a lot of huffing and puffing in the next few weeks, but not much blowing the house down.

Time to talk

2007-06-05T00:43:00.000+01:00

It's 'don't turn up' Tuesday.

First of all, Plaid AMs Leanne Wood and Bethan Jenkins will give the Queen's official opening of the assembly a miss, then Rhodri Morgan will be the only party leader absent from a Week in Week Out special examining what the hell is going on at the top of Welsh government.

Fresh from gaining Wales' first super-ministry, Carwyn Jones will deputise. A sign of things to come, perhaps? Nevertheless, the first minister's absence does rather undermine the point of the programme.

We want answers, and only Rhodri Morgan truly knows what ~~cocked up~~ went on over the past few weeks. It'll certainly be interesting to see how upfront the leaders of the other parties are willing to be about a timetable for a possible rainbow coalition coup.

What are the bottom line issues? And even then, can the government do anything to save its back?

The reality is, surely, that the opposition parties can keep upping the anti. If Labour put all their eggs in one basket, the rainbow partners can just crack them in their face. Labour may offer concessions over hospital reconfiguration, for example, but if they don't go as far as Ieuan Wyn Jones and his buddies demand, then they could have the rug pulled from beneath them at any time.

Personally, I can't see consensus politics going beyond agreeing that this afternoon's champagne is indeed a very good vintage.

Which brings me back to those dungaree-clad social workers, as some of you have so crassly described them in the comments to what was an otherwise quite interesting debate.

And that is surely the point. We had a debate.

Whether or not you agree with Bethan and Leanne, it is vital that we have the argument about the role of the monarchy from time to time. Unfortunately, there is almost no space for the type of views held by these two politicians in the mainstream media, despite the fact that they are shared by a sizable proportion of the population.

Do we elect our leaders or does the Queen appoint them? Are we subjects or citizens? Who decides whether or not we go to war? And is the Queen really the best person to open our assembly?

These are all questions of fundamental importance. They deserve to be discussed. Regrettably, opportunities to do so are all too rare.

More new blogs (don't tell Leighton)

2007-06-04T15:22:00.000+01:00

The Welsh blogosphere continues to expand like a nineteenth century Western empire. The only difference being that we don't throw pineapples at ~~Alun Cairns~~ pygmies. We're much more friendly than that.

As far as I'm aware, the latest additions to the Welsh blogging family are as follows: (I use family in the dysfunctional mother hates father has three illegitimate children with uncle, two of whom enter the civil service while the third lives in a squat in Aberystwyth with a parrot called Cynog Dafis sense of the word)

Assembly Notes, gwe, Amanwy, Sion Owain, Petha' Bach, Glamorganshire, The Silurian.

If you've been overlooked, holler in the comments. I'll be putting these in the sidebar shortly. If you don't link back, I'll pee in your letterbox.

Everyone's a winner on the Tory front bench

2007-06-04T11:45:00.000+01:00

The Conservatives have announced their new shadow ministerial team.

Alun Cairns makes the Education portfolio a Bridgend affair. He is also just about the only assembly member who could literally squeeze into Carwyn Jones' shadow.

All the baggage that goes with that brief has been dished out to Paul Davies, who takes Welsh language, Culture and Sport. Expect this chap to be wheeled out as the Tories' token Mr Welsh over the next four years.

Elsewhere, Brynle Williams gets 'Farming', which is a bit like giving Darren Millar 'Christianity' (unfortunately he gets Environment instead) and Jonathan Morgan sticks with Health.

You can see the full list HERE.

The Queen

2007-06-03T00:59:00.000+01:00

I hate to spoil a surprise, so you'll have to wait until later today or even buy the Wales on Sunday to find out the identity of the two Plaid AMs who are giving the Queen's assembly visit a miss next week.

They'll be visiting a homeless charity in Swansea instead, as you do. And a number of eminent republicans are backing them.

But why aren't there more of these eminent republicans within the ranks of Plaid itself? After all, this is a party which wants to see an independent, socialist Wales. One would have thought the idea of a British monarchy was pretty inimical to that goal.

Of course, Welsh nationalism has often gone hand in hand with a sort of soft royalist tradition which has served both sides well. After all, much of the idea of 'Welshness' we now treasure was concocted by dreamy sycophants in nineteenth century London boozers.

Are Plaid Cymru today really so different?

M4 Ministers

2007-06-02T00:47:00.000+01:00

Much has been made of Rhodri's so-called 'Glamorganshire Cabinet' (see below for Mumph's take on it). It is certainly odd that the only people deemed to have any ministerial talent hark from a narrow corridor in South Wales.

This plays right into the hands of Ieuan Wyn Jones, of course. He still wants to form an all-Wales government, albeit one with barely a constituency seat to show for itself in and around the capital.

But as far as valleys dwellers are concerned, the man is from a different planet. He may bang on about supporting the Newport Gwent Dragons, but most people in these parts put on 888 even when he's speaking in English.

And so, if and when a rainbow coalition makes its move, they'll have the very opposite problem. How can a bunch of North and West Walian nationalists propped up by dickie bow wearing Tories possibly earn the trust of South Wales' industrial heartlands?

Answer: the gang of four won't just have to get behind a rainbow coalition if that's what their party decides - they'll have to be its chief cheerleaders. This will be (a) hilarious and (b) very unlikely. I can't see Helen Mary Jones polishing off her pom poms to extoll the virtues of Toryism just yet.

At the moment, the assembly seems to be split along regional lines, with Labour ruling from the centre and the fringes poised to give the capital a kick up the backside. I think it's true to say, therefore, that if there were such a thing as a a genuine all-Wales agreement it would have to involve a Plaid-Labour pact rather than a rainbow coalition deal. Glamorganshire sausages with some country spice, if you like.

The problem is Rhodri's M4 cabinet doesn't appear to feature in Ieuan's roadmap to power. For the time being, at least, all roads lead to Anglesey.

Gone fishin'

2007-06-01T12:38:00.000+01:00

No blogging today.

Making the most of the sun and the relatively calm waters of Cardiff Bay.

In the meantime, thanks to anon for flagging up the latest musings of Simon Jenkins (no relation):

Wales's Labour administration under Rhodri Morgan has been much the same. It is proto-nationalist in all but name, denying affinity to its London parent and buying the Plaid Cymru ticket on everything from broadcasting to bloated public payrolls. It has backed Welsh language and culture, but neither Morgan nor his nationalist rivals have shown concern for such emblems of Welsh nationhood as its landscape and coastline or its historic houses towns and villages, or even its chapels. Instead, if the British want to give Wales money to despoil the Cambrian mountains (like the Highlands and islands in Scotland) with wind turbines, then nationalism means grab the money.

I have no doubt that if Birmingham and Liverpool proposed to flood Welsh valleys for cash today, as they did in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the Welsh assembly would ask simply, how much?

Good job I only buy the Guardian for the sport these days.

Plotters snubbed as Rhodri sticks to familiar faces

2007-05-31T15:30:00.000+01:00

Rhodri Morgan's new cabinet:

First Minister: Rhodri Morgan

Minister for Health and Social Services: Edwina Hart

Minister for Education, Culture and the Welsh Language: Carwyn Jones

Minister for the Economy and Transport: Dr Brian Gibbons

Minister for Sustainability and Rural Development: Jane Davidson

Minister for Social Justice and Public Service Delivery: Andrew Davies

Minister for Budget and Business: Jane Hutt

In addition to the seven Cabinet posts above, the First Minister has appointed Carl Sargeant as Chief Whip and Deputy Business Minister. He will attend all Cabinet meetings. The First Minister will also announce the appointment of new Deputy Ministers shortly.

To be updated...

So, here it is at last. The cabinet which will govern Wales for at least the next fortnight.

Despite earning a reputation as an absolutely gafftastic First Minister, Rhodri Morgan ain't stupid. He's identitified three issues which might cause a flare up between the government and the opposition (thus precipitating a vote of no confidence and a rainbow coalition coup) and put Plaid's best friends in charge of each.

Edwina Hart takes control of health to try and weather the storm over hospital reconfiguration, Jane Hutt will have to negotiate the budget (if indeed we get that far) and Carwyn Jones gets a new super ministry to try and ease fears over education and the Welsh language.

All the signs are, therefore, that Rhodri will make it as difficult as he absolutely can for Ieuan Wyn Jones to overthrow his government. That's why he's left the more hostile Leighton Andrews and Huw Lewis out in the cold (though they may still get Deputy Ministerial posts).

But it's a big risk. If the nationalist wing of the Labour party can't deliver the sort of consensus politics which will keep them in power, the unionist camp would be perfectly placed to take the reins and give the rainbow a damn good kicking from the opposition benches.

This is Rhodri's last throw of the dice. But I'm not convinced Ieuan Wyn Jones is willing to miss his turn. Putting Plaid-friendly faces in the key posts is one thing - keeping them there is going to be almost impossible.

UPDATE:

Reaction from Plaid (Rhodri Glyn Thomas): "Rhodri Morgan’s latest cabinet has no change of personnel and therefore there has to be a change of policy and a new sense of urgency if this government is going to make a real difference to lives across Wales.

"We have here the same old tired faces; it is unlikely this cabinet will contain renewed ambition for Wales to go with the new powers of the Assembly."

Reaction from the Conservatives (Nick Bourne): "This has all the hallmarks of the same old Labour pantomime with the same old cast, and the same old lines we've heard for the last eight years.

"This is the cabinet of Labour's Glamorgan mafia. There is no-one west of Swansea, east of Cardiff or north of Pontypridd. So much for governing for the whole of Wales."

Reaction from the Lib Dems: "Umm, who, what, where? Why isn't Mike German in it?"

Pleidiol wyf i'm beth?

2007-05-31T11:11:00.000+01:00

Ydy Cymru'n gwlad yntai'n genedl? Dyna dw i'n gofyn yn fy ngholofn yn Golwg yr wythnos hon.

Ymhlith yr holl drafodaethau clymbleidio rhwng y pleidiau wedi'r etholiad, mae'n debyg fod y mater hwn wedi dod i'r brig. Yn ol pob son, roedd yna gwrthwynebiad egwyddorol yn y Blaid Lafur ac ymysg y Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol i'r gair 'cenedl' yn nogfen Plaid Cymru. Yn wir, newidiodd y Blaid Lafur yr is-deitl 'Adeiladu Cenedl' yn nogfen Plaid Cymru i 'Gymru Cryfach' yn ei ddogfen ei hun.

Ond beth ar wyneb y ddaear sy’n bod â’r gair 'cenedl'? Wedi’r cyfan, mae’n syniad sydd wedi codi mewn nifer o areithiau amlycaf Gordon Brown.

Dwn i ddim. I fi mae Cymru yn gwlad ac yn genedl. Mae Prydain yn wladwriaeth ac mae Ewrop (ar hyn o bryd) yn gawlach llwyr.
******************************************************
A topic pinched from my column in Golwg this week...

One of the sticking points in the post-election coalition negotiations was over the alleged nationalist rhetoric in Plaid Cymru's proposals.

Members in both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats were apparently unhappy with the subtitle 'Building a nation' in Plaid's negotiation document. Indeed, so unacceptable was this offending phrase that Labour had changed it to 'A Stronger Wales' by the time it came back to the Plaid office.

Why?

After all, one of Gordown Brown's favourite soundbites is to talk about the 'Nations and regions of Great Britain', of which Wales is surely one of the former. Is the Unionist/Nationalist split in Cardiff Bay really so infantile as to be quibbling about silly little things like this?

Giggs buggers off

2007-05-30T16:50:00.000+01:00

Just as David Beckham is relaunching his England career, his former teammate Ryan Giggs has decided that Saturday's game against the Czech Republic will be his last for Wales.

The idea of 'retiring' from international football has always struck me as odd. I don't think any self-respecting countryman should give up on the chance to represent his nation.

In truth, Giggs has always been a bit iffy about turning out for Wales. And if he's not keen on carrying on, he should take his hairy little frame back to Manchester for good. He's the captain, for God's sake. What sort of message does that give out? If at first you don't succeed, give up and have a personalitiless sulk with Paul Scholes?

The bailing out culture of modern football has got to stop. These guys are paid astronomical amounts of money and whether they like it or not they are role models to children all over the globe. With John Toshack snubbing experienced pros and experienced pros snubbing John Toshack, there's a real lack of quality in the current Wales camp. Giggs is hanging us out to dry.

Stop internet repression

2007-05-30T12:20:00.000+01:00

Some people just don't get free speech.

I've written many times about the people who abuse it. But back in October (readership: zero) I wrote about the people who try to restrict it. And that's a far worse crime.

Amnesty, though, is on the case.

The worst we have to deal with when we step out of line is Leighton Andrews getting a bit cross. But in China and Egypt people are sent to jail just for having their say. And Microsoft, Yahoo! and Google help to put them there.

There will be a live internet solidarity event on Wednesday 6 June at 18:30. In the meantime, check out their website: irrepressible.info

Who'll be in the Labour government cabinet?

2007-05-30T00:53:00.000+01:00

When Rhodri Morgan announces his cabinet tomorrow, Labour will be left with as many or fewer rank and file assembly members than any of the other political parties except for Trish Law and the six independents formerly known as the Lib Dems.

Quite simply, Labour's twelve backbenchers (I'm not counting the DPO) are going to be stretched. From now on, the assembly isn't a glorified council chamber, it's a would-be government. That means more responsibility for ministers and non-ministers alike.

Tomorrow, Rhodri will form a government of all the talents. And after he's done that, he'll make up the numbers to fill the remaining posts.

I'm not going to go through them one by one, because frankly the Welsh cabinet is much of a muchness with a few notable exceptions. The key questions are:

(1) What will he do with health?
Easy. He sends Brian Gibbons back to Sesame Street and puts a big name in to try and sort it out. This chalice won't just be filled with poison, it will be brimming with all the shit Plaid and the Tories can squeeze into it in an attempt to engineer some 'no confidence' in advance of a rainbow coalition coup. With hospital reconfiguration top of the agenda, this requires careful handling, so expect it to go to ~~Carl Sargeant~~ one of Edwina Hart, Jane Davidson or Carwyn Jones.

(2) How to deal with the plotters from the valleys?
Hug them close and strangle them with one of Helen Mary Jones' scarves. Huw Lewis for Social Justice Minister and Leighton Andrews for Deputy Somethingorother.

(3) Who will be the token North Walian?
Decided by a Big Brother style contest. Lock them all in a committee room with basic supplies and rolling footage of the Urdd Eisteddfod. See who starts dancing first and give him or her the Culture portfolio. In the meantime, maybe we could help him out with another quick opinion poll:

German Retriever

2007-05-29T12:10:00.000+01:00

On Saturday afternoon Mike German pulled the Lib Dems back from the brink as they voted overwhelmingly in favour of sharing power with Plaid and the Conservatives. But will he be the Golden Shepherd of this mongrel coalition project? Or will his party kick him out before he gets his hands on that ministerial Mondeo?

The Lib Dem ~~joke book~~ constitution states that there must be a leadership election within twelve months of an assembly election. We know this because they keep telling us, not because we've actually seen it. The document itself is kept in a Mid Wales hovel, eagerly guarded by two old ladies from Radnorshire who are worried about catching a STV.

What's certain is that there are now only eleven months left before there must be a leadership election. If Plaid green light the rainbow coalition, there may be a case for holding the contest before they enter government. After all, they'd be voting for Deputy First Minister as well as party leader.

With that in mind, here's a bit of half-term hwyl. The very first Blamerbell Briefs opinion poll.

RESULT:
It's a resounding victory for Wil Cwac Cwac's mute little brother, Won't. Unusually for a Lib Dem, he won't duck the issue. Oh dear.

First of the serious contenders, though, was Kirsty Williams. Despite the somewhat unscientific nature of this poll it seems she still has her supporters after last week's debacle. Mike German would push her all the way, however, while Jenny Randerson would be in with a shout. Mick Bates is out of it and Peter Black voted for himself 9 times.

Cerdd Dant Ache

2007-05-28T15:40:00.000+01:00

It's that time of year again. S4C shelves the farming programmes for a week and dedicates its entire airtime to that festival of over-exaggerated facial expressions otherwise known as the Urdd Eisteddfod.

Tune in on Monday for seven year-olds straining their cheekbones to convey some hackneyed emotion or other through speech or song.

Tune in on Saturday and all that's changed is the trouser measurements.

But worst of all must be the bloody Cerdd Dant. We Welsh are enormously proud of this unique art form. Unique, that is, because the rest of the world wouldn't go near the idea (except for this website in Japan, which as far as I can make out seems unusually keen on it).

Cerdd Dant is a performance for harp and voice (or voices - equally bad). And this is how it works: The harp plays a 'cainc' - a traditional melody. The voice sings a counter-melody. Literally. This is about as contrary to the notion of melody as you will ever hear.

It is completely musically backwards and about as tuneful as a Lembit Opik and Gabrielle Irminia mouth organ session.

Worse still, the Urdd is somehow of the opinion that eight year-olds are capable of singing it. Well, they aren't.

I've watched that 'gwyl' on TV and I can tell you that those cute little kids can barely hold a normal melody, let alone an upside down and back to front melody with harp non-accompaniment.

Back in the studio they heap on the praise, deliberately ignoring shots of audience members tearing their hair out and stuffing it desperately into their ears. Bloody hell, they've just starting clog dancing. Time to sign out...

Wish you were there?

2007-05-28T00:32:00.000+01:00

Whoppee! It's the Whistun break and our hard-working politicians are enjoying a week in the sun. All except those who've decided to holiday in Wales, that is.

So what's the state of the nation? Well, it's a complete and utter shambles. Good job, bring on the Pina Coladas.

On Friday, Rhodri Morgan became first minister of a minority Labour administration. On Saturday, the Lib Dems voted to pursue a rainbow coalition with Plaid and the Tories which would necessitate his removal.

The ball is now very much in Plaid's court. But rather than smash it down the line for a winner, Ieuan Wyn Jones is hanging on to it for a game of keepie uppies.

The noises coming from the Plaid camp are that they now have time to discuss the rainbow option in earnest. I was on a panel with Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other day and he suggested they wouldn't necessarily need to make a move before the summer. Speaking on yesterday's Maniffesto programme, Ieuan Wyn Jones implied that the party's national council wouldn't even be discussing the proposals until July.

In the meantime, Rhodri Morgan will announce a cabinet and get on with the job. But he is a first minister on probation in charge of a government in paralysis. Plaid should beware, however. The longer he's in charge, the more difficult it will be to remove him.

Mathematically and constitutionally, Plaid can take as long as they like. But realistically, they will need a bloody good reason. We're not used to putsch politics here in Wales. Coups are for chickens, not for Cardiff Bay.

It may be possible for the opposition parties to engineer disquiet over hospital reconfiguration or the budget which would prompt a vote of no confidence. But they would be taking power in very different circumstances then compared to now.

At the moment, the election still isn't too far gone. A cabinet hasn't been named and the machinery of administration is still in cold storage. Moreover, the rainbow is still widely seen as an alternative to Labour rather than a calculated plot to oust the government. People may not look upon the idea so favourably in a few months time.

But while the Lib Dems and the Tories have now played their hand, let's not forget that Plaid have emerged strengthened. For the next couple of weeks, at least, they have the threat of the rainbow to keep Labour on its toes. A red-green deal is not out of the question.

And yet there's still that glint in Ieuan Wyn Jones' eyes which suggests he's keen to govern. If that's so, there's nothing to stop him moving fast. Otherwise, there's every danger the assembly will be a national joke by the time he finally makes his move. This comedy of errors has gone on quite long enough.

Who are you?

2007-05-26T00:05:00.000+01:00

It's Saturday. Everyone's resigned to the fact that we've got a new first minister. And yet the Liberal Democrats are still plugging away.

After ruining both the prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition and a Rainbow Coalition they are now focusing on tearing themsevlves apart. Today, they meet for a special conference. And yet the only remaining chance of a rainbow is in one of Peter Black's increasingly repulsive ties. How many Lib Dem activists, I wonder, would like to tighten that particular knot?

But amidst the recriminations, don't you think we have a right to know who voted against the triple alliance on Wednesday night? I'm told there were 18 people eligible to vote in the national executive ballot which sent the rainbow coalition crashing back to earth. But Lib Dem members never got a chance to have their say. Instead, they were shafted by a bunch of councillors and party stooges.

Here's a list of the Lib Dem national executive:

Alastair Baker
Treasurer, Welsh Liberal Democrats National Executive Committee

David Bourne
National Executive Committee

Eleanor Burnham
National Executive Committee Policy Committe

Nick Burree
National Executive Committee

Jon Burree
Secretary, Welsh Liberal Democrats National Executive Committee

Michael German
Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the National Assembly National Executive Committee

Alison Goldsworthy
Vice Chair, National Executive Committee

Dominic Hannigan
Campaigns & Candidates Committee MIDR Cymru National Executive

Rob Humphreys
President, Welsh Liberal Democrats Chair, National Executive Committee

Jim Kelleher
National Executive Committee

John Last
Chair, Campaigns & Candidates Committee National Executive Committee

Ben Lloyd
National Executive Committee

Elgan Morgan
Policy Committee
Chair, Conference Committee
National Executive Committee

Aled Morris Jones
National Executive Committee

Lembit Öpik
Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
Federal Vice President
National Executive Committee

Veronica Watkins
National Executive Committee

Kirsty Williams
National Executive Committee
AC
Michael Woods
Chair, Policy Committee
Campaigns & Candidates Committee
National Executive Committee

One of these people cast the vote which changed the course of Welsh politics for years to come. Shouldn't we be told who it was and why?

By the way, as I now feel compelled to share every aspect of my life with you, I should tell you I met Labour's David Taylor for the first time last night. He's adamant he wasn't behind that short-lived Arsembly effort. And in the flesh, he's quite an amiable chap. He even lets Leighton Andrews write his own blog sometimes...

UPDATE: The Lib Dem special conference has voted 125-77 in favour of reviving the coalition project they spectacularly shelved on Wednesday night. But Wales has now got a first minister and there doesn't seem to be much appetite from Plaid Cymru to resurrect the rainbow in the short term.

Today was billed as Super Saturday. But the triple alliance now has about as much momentum as Rhodri's static caravan in Mwnt.

It's time, then, to put the feet up, watch the footy and take a break. I don't think there'll be a revolution this weekend after all.

The dawn of an old era

2007-05-25T09:46:00.000+01:00

After weeks of haggling, bitching, briefing, capitulating and then recapitulating it's come down to this: another minority Labour government.

Rhodri Morgan will today resume the post of first minister. And he'll do it with only 25 of the 60 available votes.

Despite all the rhetoric of the election campaign, Wales has neither a 'stable government' nor an 'agreed policy programme'. We did our bit - the electorate went to the polls with a slightly increased turnout and gave their verdict. But the politicians have, quite simply, failed to deliver.

So, what next?

Well, fresh from failing to agree even to disagree gracefully, they will now stall and stutter for weeks and months to come. There's a lack of trust and general sense of deflation in Cardiff Bay, which is just what you need at the start of another four year term.

But there's also a great deal of instability and division. Because the men who spectacularly failed to broker a deal last time may not be trusted to do so again. Most of the parties have leadership issues waiting to explode.

So it's back to square zero for the foreseeable future.

On the plus side, a Lib Dem Focus leaflet popped through my letterbox this morning. Glad to see they're sticking to what they do best.

The final twist?

2007-05-24T14:31:00.000+01:00

You never quite know what you're going to get with Lib Dem activists.

Yesterday, their national executive turned its back on a coalition document which would have given them PR in local government and the free toothbrushes they so desperately craved. You can now see that document HERE or you can download your own copy HERE.

But it seems some of them haven't give up the fight. They're hoping to call a special conference on Saturday after all. I'm told activists are collecting signatures to force a meeting.

So could there be a final twist in this post-election political farce?

Maybe. But it will most likely be a twist of the knife in their leader's back - a public stage upon which to to complete the extraordinary self-destruction of the Liberal Democrats over the past three weeks.

UPDATE: Plaid confirm plenary will go ahead tomorrow as planned. Rhodri Morgan will become first minister and the inquest will begin.

UPDATE: Believe it or not I actually have things to do today. But I can't resist dipping into the document now and again to have a peep at what might have been.

The first little gem: "xii. We will keep adult neuro-surgery services in Swansea."

Oh dear. Wasn't that Peter Black's personal crusade during the election campaign?

UPDATE: Conference is on. This from the Lib Dems:

Elgan Morgan, Chair of Conference Committee, said:

"The Chief Executive has today received requests from 20 conference representatives to go ahead with a special conference to discuss the document negotiated with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives in the Assembly. Under the party's rules, it is now up to conference committee to arrange such a conference. Given that Saturday is already in diaries, I have decided that special conference will go ahead this Saturday at the Metropole Hotel, Llandrindod Wells. Starting at 10.30am."

So, as things stand: Rhodri Morgan will become first minister tomorrow. He will lead a minority Labour administration - there is no deal with Plaid Cymru. The Lib Dems will have a special conference on Saturday regardless. But it seems the only thing they've got to discuss is themselves.

Shafted!

2007-05-24T02:51:00.000+01:00

It's no secret that the Lib Dems' six AMs don't get on. Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.

This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.

The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way politics is conducted in Wales has been scuppered by just one unelected officer on an internal Lib Dem council.

The consequences are enormous. Not only is Mike German's leadership now under severe threat but people will be left wondering, a la Simon Jenkins, what on earth are the Lib Dems for?

They've turned their noses up at the offer of PR in local government, which is the one big thing that set them apart. Now, it seems, they'd rather snipe from the sidelines than implement their own policies. No doubt we'll be hearing very soon what was lined up in the coalition document. It is certain, however, to make their election promise of maximum votes for maximum Lib Dem policies completely redundant.

On hospital reconfiguration, reducing class sizes and making the green switch they've turned down the chance to have it their own way.

Peter Black tells me that "in the end the party did not have the stomach for coalition." The rationale is that they can reinvent in opposition. But it is going to be stupendously difficult.

Because whatever government eventually takes power in Cardiff Bay, the Lib Dems will be coalition partners by proxy. By bailing out, they've left few alternatives and very little time. The government's mistakes will be the Lib Dems' mistakes because they engineered the circumstances which put them there.

They are, quite frankly, knee deep in it. To be an effective opposition, you must be free to criticise the government. But every time the Lib Dems open their mouths, the other parties will be quick to remind them that they had their chance and blew it.

Yesterday afternoon, the rainbow coalition document came back from its civil service going over - as if a sign was needed about how advanced the process had become.

The Plaid-Labour document, by contrast, never made it out of Helen Mary Jones' handbag. By committing to the rainbow route, Ieuan was obviously keen to shed his wobble. But had he adopted the more cautious approach of the 'feisty foursome' the next few hours might not be such a scramble.

It seems pretty clear that a Plaid-Tory deal is a non-starter. I put this to Nick Bourne on Tuesday and he laughed it off.

So, Plaid and Labour are left with barely 48 hours to cobble together a programme of government for Wales. And thanks to Labour, there's a 28-page document sitting there ready to go. Who knows, the politicians might finally find something to agree about.

Will Black spoil the rainbow? UPDATE: Yes!

2007-05-23T22:02:00.000+01:00

Two key meetings tonight, both in Llandrindod. The Conservatives' management board are meeting in the ~~1930s~~ Metropole Hotel - I'm told it's a shoo in. Meanwhile the Lib Dem National Executive is getting together in the Media Resource Centre.

This is much more difficult to call. Even though they voted by 9-3 to suspend talks with Labour last week, a number of Lib Dem legends and Peter Black are thought to be against teaming up with Plaid and the Tories. Activists were out in numbers - thought to be at least 12 - to make their opposition known.

"What do we want?"

"Constitutional reform and the introduction of a single transferable voting system in local government," they shouted.

"When do we want it?"

"After a majority vote in the national executive, a special conference in an unspecified location and even then not really," they cried.

To be updated.

UPDATE: The Lib Dems have voted to halt all talks. That means the end of the rainbow.

Lib Dem leader (for the moment) Mike German said: "We had a very throughtful discussion... it was clear that there was a deep division on this matter and the party decided that it would not be possible to move forward and to recommend this to a special party conference.

"There will be no vote from our party to support a first minister next week."

Whatever happened to more votes, more seats, more power, more influence?

They'd won the PR argument (a huge coup for such a small party). No doubt there were other Lib Dem policies in there too. Perhaps it came down to the toothbrushes...

The deal Plaid left behind

2007-05-23T09:49:00.000+01:00

More details are emerging of the deal Plaid turned down to concentrate solely on forming a rainbow coalition. It is thought Labour were offering a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, a review of the Barnett formula AND a new Welsh Language Act (in some form).

I also understand that at the time Plaid voted to sever talks with Labour, Rhodri Morgan's team were perusing the very same document on health reconfiguration which had been submitted to the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even though Labour had earlier rejected the idea of a moratorium on the reconfiguration programme, the four AMs who voted against suspending negotiations clearly thought there was still hope of reaching an agreement on this and other key issues.

Nevertheless, the other Plaid AMs decided that talks were not progressing at a sufficient pace. And yet, had this offer been on the table on May 4th, surely they would have snapped it up?

UPDATE: It seems others within Plaid are contesting this version of events. They say that a Welsh Language Act wasn't on the table, only the watered-down promise of a 'Dyfarnydd' which appeared in Labour's manifesto. They also say that Rhodri Morgan was prepared to offer an assembly vote on a referendum, but stopped short of guaranteeing his members would support it.

The return of two party politics

2007-05-23T00:46:00.001+01:00

Problem is, they're both Plaid Cymru.

The decision, yesterday, of the party's assembly group to stop negotiating with Labour and take Wales within touching distance of a rainbow coalition government was far from unanimous. After hours of debate, four women remained unconvinced. They will now make the case for rejecting a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems in the run up to Saturday's key vote of the National Council, which must authorise any potential alliance.

Helen Mary Jones, Leanne Wood, Bethan Jenkins and Nerys Evans form a feisty female quartet, intent on spilling what they consider to be a rapidly diminishing pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There are two major sticking points.

Firstly, they say: "We fought this election on a platform to deliver a proper Parliament for our nation. A deal with the Conservatives would undermine the chance of delivering that goal."

There's no reference here to Tories actively blocking plans for further devolution. I don't believe they are. Rather, the obstacle to delivering a proper Parliament is the Labour party. They are the ones with the ability to block such a move in Wales and in Westminster. Only a deal with Labour could have made sure that a vote on further powers would make it past the first hurdle.

And yet, we've been led to believe that Labour fell short of offering such a guarantee. Why, then, do the dissenting foursome consider this just cause to vote against a rainbow coalition? Did they wonder if Rhodri was ever pushed far enough? And did they believe there was still time to push him further?

Secondly, they say: "There is a clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives. That is why we believe an arrangement between us would be unsustainable in the long-run and not deliver the stable government for which we all strive."

It can't be the language issue. It can't be the devolution issue. It can't even be PR in local government. The Tories are already much closer to Plaid than Labour in all these areas. It must, therefore, come down to ideology - tantamount to saying Plaid and the Tories could never work together.

And that's perfectly understandable. After all, it's what almost everyone thought just six months ago. But that wasn't the message of the election campaign. Plaid won 15 seats by saying 'Kick Labour into touch and we'll rustle up something better'.

So which of the much-promoted 7 4 07 is causing such an almighty 'clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives'?

I'd be surprised if the Tories would veto any of them (except free laptops for journalists - that was ridiculous). Because this isn't an argument about policies - at least the ones put forward in the manifesto. It is, rather, an argument about the social fabric of the people in the constituencies these dissenting AMs represent. The people who vote for Leanne Wood don't teeter pensively above the Conservative box before casting their vote in favour of socialism. If they have to think twice, they'll think about what Labour's done for them recently.

Both the rainbowistas and the rebels want to see Plaid gain a foothold in the valleys to truly challenge Labour as the party of Wales. The former want to do it from government with the help of the Tories. The latter believe Plaid could deliver a winning lottery ticket to every door and still be tarnished by such an association.

So, those four brave women will now attempt in earnest to convince the National Council. They are, in effect, campaigning for a minority Labour government. And if the vote goes their way, Labour would be in the driving seat again. Can Welsh politics really get any weirder?

Happy Birthday Ieuan

2007-05-22T14:45:00.000+01:00

"It's just what I've always wanted. Thanks Dafydd."

"No problem," said Mr Wigley. "It's a lovely Welsh frame, though that photo of me is quite old now. I'll even sign it if you want, Ieuan."

"That won't be necessary, Dafydd.

"And what's this Helen - a scarf?"

Today, Ieuan Wyn Jones celebrates his birthday. It looks set to be one he'll never forget.

At 3pm, Plaid have their group meeting. They'll be discussing the document that looks set to make him First Minister.

This morning, I had a chat with Nick Bourne - Deputy First Minister elect. He was in good spirits. Mike German will have to settle for Assistant Deputy First Minister or Deputy Deputy First Minister. Whichever makes him sound less desperate:)

But he will, at least, have something to sell to his members at the Lib Dems' special conference on Saturday. While Peter Black remains "fundamentally opposed" to any kind of coalition, Mike German will be on the verge of delivering the closest thing the party has to a raison d'etre - PR in local government. They may have to settle for local referendums on the issue rather than seeing it rolled out with immediate effect, but at least it's something to shout about.

Labour AMs were in scarce supply today. Their world has been turned upside down. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems (all six of them) were still frantically negotiating and the Tories were practising their swagger.

Plaid are now in a huddle, but they are unlikely to spring any birthday surprises on Ieuan Wyn Jones. Rhodri, meanwhile, is having his cake and eating it.

UPDATE: Face to face talks between Plaid Cymru and Labour. It would have to be an absolutely incredible deal. Even then it's doubtful whether Labour's assembly members would sanction it. After all, when Rhodri is gone, they'll have to live with the consequences.

UPDATE: BBC are reporting that the triple alliance document has been sent to civil servants to take a look at. Are the Plaid-Labour talks an elaborate bluff? If Plaid go ahead with a rainbow coalition, they'll want to make it look like the last resort. That seems to be what they're engineering at the moment.

UPDATE: First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones. You'd better start getting used to the sound of that. Plaid have suspended talks with Labour.

On the verge of power or the brink of despair?

2007-05-22T01:12:00.000+01:00

After two years waiting, I have finally watched City of the Lost Children. And I didn't understand a minute of it.

An awful lot of Welsh people probably feel the same way. We went to the polls almost three weeks ago and yet most voters will still be none the wiser as to what's going on.

The film is a sort of dystopian fantasy in which people pull out each other's eyeballs and eat them. Not dissimilar, some Plaid members would say, to life under a rainbow coalition.

By the end of play today, it should be almost certain who'll be forming a government as the next first minister of Wales. Barring a miracle, it'll be Ieuan Wyn Jones.

This will make some Plaid supporters very very cross. Back in December I wrote that "most Plaid AMs would rather cut off their right leg, put it in a mincer and eat it between two slices of certain death than go into coalition with the Tories."

It's still true, of course, it's just that some of them now think that's a price worth paying.

But I wrote those words long before an election campaign which saw Plaid define every inch of themselves as the party that wasn't Labour. While there was hardly an ill word said about the Tories, Plaid spent an awful lot of money telling us to 'Kick Labour into touch' or that Wales was 'Going nowhere fast under Labour'.

The main issue was the health service and the mess Labour was said to be making of it. The buzzword was change. Plaid produced a manifesto full of grinning kids out of the Adams catalogue and everyone thought it was terribly professional. We're ready for government, they hollered. Only if you team up with the Tories, the media hollered tirelessly back.

It should come as no surprise, therefore, that this is exactly what looks set to happen. The people who are muttering about setting up a breakaway party or cancelling their membership must have spent the entire election campaign on another planet (or at least somewhere east of Shrewsbury). It's about as much of a shock as a Catherine Tate punchline.

The first few weeks will be critical. Plaid must present a united front and start looking like a party capable of governing. There will be a lot of scepticism at first, especially in South Wales where people will be wondering why on earth that lovely old lady who used to be on the council isn't in government anymore.

And if Plaid's own members aren't even behind them, what hope for the valleys man who hates the fact that the automated voice in the post office has to repeat everything in Welsh?

Government is for grown ups. And Plaid will need to learn fast if they aren't going to look like the lost children of Cardiff Bay.

Flash in the arse

2007-05-21T14:26:00.001+01:00

He's gone. And so soon after his relaunch too.

I wonder what tipped him over the edge?

Job vacant: Leader, Welsh Labour

2007-05-21T00:27:00.000+01:00

Perhaps not quite yet. But soon.

A new administration in Cardiff Bay will need a new opposition. Why should Rhodri hang around for two years to size up against a government he'll never face in an election. Why should Labour AMs let him?

All the signs are that they won't. And Carwyn Jones' status as Leader in waiting has never looked more precarious. He's considered to be far too chummy with the nationalists to provide the bite Labour would require in opposition.

So who might it be then - Jane Davidson, Andrew Davies, Edwina Hart? Or does someone else have their eyes on the prize? Let's see...

Who was straight out of the blocks, doing the tricky interviews in the immediate aftermath of the election?

Who was calling for the Labour party to reflect and change?

Who was quoted in the Western Mail alongside the 'leaked' draft document that Labour proposed, rubbishing it before it got to the table?

Who hates the Tories almost as much as he hates Plaid Cymru?

~~Huw~~ He would be perfect, wouldn't he?

.

Sense and responsibility

2007-05-20T00:04:00.000+01:00

Something very strange happened to me yesterday.

I was sitting in the pub watching the FA cup. (not strange)

Drinking coke. (not strange)

My mate shouted "C'mon United, get into those STUPID CHEL-SAY TU-WATS". Very loudly. The pub chuckled. (not strange)

And then, a bunch of replica shirt wearing fellows behind me started discussing coalitions. (very strange)

Would a triple alliance have any legitimacy, they wondered. After all, Labour is by far the largest party.

I can't quite describe how excited I felt. This has never happened before. Up until now, the only people I've ever heard talking about Welsh politics have been geeks or opportunists (otherwise known as the media and political elite).

Whether or not we do eventually get a rainbow coalition government, the prospect of one has certainly made people take a bit more interest in who is proposing to do what with the running of the country.

Cue the scare stories. Paranoid Plaid supporters talk about 'losing the valleys', the Tories' 'privatisation agenda' and their fear of what is sure to be a fierce Labour bark in opposition.

But they must judge whether the benefits of a potential alliance would outweigh the negatives. Let's skip ahead a little and imagine what the criticisms of a Plaid-led government may be: (1)Too much emphasis on the Welsh language and a self-interested pursuit of power and (2) too little emphasis on encouraging entrepreneurial spirit and economic growth.

Plaid Cymru are very good at the former and not so great at the latter. The answer? Let the other parties take care of them all. A number of people in Plaid secretly admire some of the Conservatives' ideas for promoting business. So, Alun Cairns gets the Enterprise portfolio. As for PR and leading the charge for further devolution, let the Lib Dems take the initial flak. Why not give them Culture too, and the task of bringing in a new Welsh Language Act? These are, after all, policies from the Lib Dem manifesto.

Meanwhile, Plaid is left relatively unfettered to pursue its aims of social justice in health and education. It can take the credit for the other policies when credit is due. But in the meantime it is free to put all its high-profile resources into the public services that will, they hope, win them the valleys and possibly the next election too.

Then, of course, it's a question of whether or not they have the ability to make a difference. If there's fear in the Plaid camp, it shouldn't be about the Tories. Plaid are in a very strong position and have the right to negotiate on their own terms.

No, if there are doubts, they aren't about Nick Bourne. They're about Ieuan Wyn Jones and the other 14 Plaid AMs who will have to fight the 2011 election having proved that they really have delivered a change for the better.

I'm off to enjoy Glyn Davies' shrubbery today. Perhaps we'll do a joint blog if anything interesting comes of the lunchtime politics programmes:)

Dealbreakers

2007-05-18T10:09:00.000+01:00

The reason Ieuan Wyn Jones might just be sworn in as first minister by the end of the month is that there is actually a remarkable amount of overlap between the parties looking to form a rainbow coalition. I know because I read the bloody manifestos. And if the Lib Dems ever dare to produce a document as long and tedious as that again I'll ram it up their letter box:)

Beyond the really important issues, like the free laptops, lightbulbs and toothbrushes, there is agreement (or wiggle room) in a number of key areas. Whether it's a new Welsh language act, moves towards a referendum on further devolution, PR in local government or making the green switch, the parties have much in common. And now that talks are underway, they'll finally be able to stop pretending they are all so incredibly different.

It's the Tories, however, who have most to lose in terms of traditional ideological ground. While Plaid and the Lib Dems may be bargaining on the basis of specific policy commitments, the Conservatives might prefer to negotiate in terms of future influence. The price they could extract in exchange for caving in on PR, for example, is more likely to be a prominent role in cabinet than an equivalent policy initiative.

Nick Bourne said yesterday that the Tories are in this to govern. There's no reason not to believe him.

There's no red in rainbow

2007-05-17T22:28:00.000+01:00

The Lib Dems' National Executive has voted to suspend talks with Labour and concentrate solely on discussions with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives on forming a rainbow coalition.

The Conservatives have also confirmed that they are negotiating with Plaid Cymru with a view to an official agreement which would see Tory AMs joining the cabinet under Ieuan Wyn Jones.

This development gives real momentum to the prospect of a non-Labour government in the assembly for the first time in its history. Labour intend to put forward Rhodri Morgan as first minister whatever the outcome of the other parties' negotiations. But a Plaid deal with the Lib Dems and the Tories would see Ieuan Wyn Jones mirror the achievement of his Scottish counterpart and become Wales' first nationalist leader.

[In a separate incident, a shocked shop owner from Montgomeryshire reported that a former Conservative AM rushed into her store earlier this evening and bought her entire supply of party poppers. Margaret Gilmore, 53, told this blog that she initially feared for her safety as the man, named locally as Glyn Davies, methodically popped each one in turn and shouted "NOW DO YOU BELIEVE ME?"]

UPDATE: Lib Dem leader Mike German has just spoken on Dragon's Eye. He said: "We've given a clear direction here of the direction we'd like to travel. We wish to see if we can formulate a strong and robust three party government for Wales. This is a potential solution to that fresh start that people in Wales want."

There's still plenty of talking to do, of course. But as it stands, Plaid Cymru are in the driving seat. They have a straight choice: to back up Labour in a confidence and supply agreement or form a government themselves. They may never get a better chance.

An extra 28 days to negotiate (with minimal death)

2007-05-17T00:23:00.000+01:00

Time is running out for our plucky AMs. If they can't get behind a first minister by next Friday (Saturday at a push) the whole of the country will grind to a halt instantly and there will be bedlam on the streets.

What's that, you say? Wales has been chugging along quite happily without a government? S4C2 hasn't been inundated with sackfulls of requests to play library footage of plenary sessions? Oh.

But, if the suited and the scarved in Cardiff Bay really need a couple of extra weeks to cut a deal, there is a possible way out.

All they need to do is come up with an evil murderous plot.

Much like the offering of a sacrificial virgin in Russian folklore, all assembly members must do is select one of their own to die for the cause of Welsh politics. First they nominate a first minister, then they kill him. That's because the government of Wales Act allows the assembly 28 days to nominate a first minister in the event that he passes away. Simple.

In fact, they need not even kill the chosen one. According to the legislation, merely rendering him "permanently unable to act" is sufficient enough. A bit like the cast of Belonging then.

Anyway, that's the method. All they need now is a victim...

Rainbow selecta

2007-05-16T10:12:00.001+01:00

After yesterday's Labour group meeting, Rhodri Morgan conceded that he'd knocked on a few doors but nobody would come out and play.

Meanwhile, Ieuan Wyn Jones might just be fastening his velcro straps in readiness to pounce.

Lib Dem leader Mike German is bouncing around eagerly, waiting to share his limited selection of toys. And Tory chief Nick Bourne is carefully guarding his Transformer set, in case IWJ can supply him with the batteries to fire it up.

Plaid Cymru group meeting: today, 10am.

If Ieuan Wyn Jones wants the top job, he can have it.

By the way, they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. This new blog doesn't seem to know who it wants to copy:)

Also, I'll be on AM/PM (BBC 2) at lunchtime to talk about ~~the etymology of the word 'fudge'~~ coalitions and stuff.

UPDATE: Plaid Cymru will now begin proper negotiations with Labour on the one side and the Lib Dems and the Tories on the other. They'll meet again next week to decide on their preferred option. Meanwhile, a source inside the Conservative party tells me that Ieuan Wyn Jones and Nick Bourne have spoken on a "number of occasions" since the election, and that "with every 24 hours that passes, a non-Labour government becomes more likely."

Presiding officer, Dafydd Elis Thomas, has set Friday May 25 as the deadline for an agreement, so that he can call a plenary session to be held on Wednesday the 30th (as Peter Black points out, that falls somewhat inconveniently before the Lib Dems and Plaid are set to hold meetings to discuss that very same problem!).

There's still 10 days, then, for Ieuan Wyn Jones to decide if he wants to be first minister after all. If the Tories are serious about backing him, they'll agree to PR in local government - a key policy commitment for both Plaid and the Lib Dems and one which they hope will finally loosen Labour's hold on grass-root politics in Wales.

UPDATE II: Mae Rhys Llwyd wedi dechrau iDdeiseb yn galw ar wleidyddion Cymru i sefydlu llywodraeth asap er lles pobl Cymru. Dydy o ddim yn dweud pa fath o lywodraeth, serch hynny. Cewch chi gyd cytuno felly:)

Rhys Llwyd has setup an ePetition calling on assembly members to form a government as soon as possible for the benefit of the people of Wales. He doesn't say which kind of government he'd prefer so if you sign it and then don't like what you get, tough!

When a defeat feels like a defeat

2007-05-15T21:49:00.000+01:00

Remember back before the election, when Rhodri Morgan said he'd "leave the stage" if he thought Labour had suffered a defeat? Then, like spoons to a chocolate fudge cake in fat camp, we all leapt in with wild estimations about what that might constitute.

Most people settled on 24 seats. Yeah, that would be a bad enough result all right.

But.

He didn't say anything about number of seats.

Instead, what he talked about was translating votes into a Labour government: "If they want Labour to continue, then Labour voters have got to come out and vote Labour - that's the key message."

So, could it still be a 'defeat' if the other three parties come together to form a rainbow coalition?

Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can't persuade one of the other parties to join a formal coalition?

Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can only secure 'general support' and not the 'confidence and supply' arrangement which would put the government in a more secure position?

Who knows (apart from Rhodri), 26 seats could be a 'defeat' after all...

Tenei Te Tangata Puhuruhuru*

2007-05-15T00:14:00.000+01:00

Keep a keen eye on airport departure lounges over the next few weeks. The assembly has a further 22 days to elect a first minister, which would take them conveniently into their Whitsun holidays.

In the meantime, nobody except Mike German is returning Rhodri's calls. So Wales goes on without a government. And the longer it goes unresolved, the more people are talking about Labour going it alone with Plaid or the Lib Dems backing them up in a confidence and supply type arrangement.

This, we are endlessly told, is the New Zealand model. They even sent over a cabinet minister to give Rhodri some tips on how it's all supposed to work.

But hang on a minute, why are we taking lessons from a country that's only got one vowel sound?

Their election was won narrowly by the Labour party, but only after what has been described as a "dirty campaign punctuated by threats and bullying". Even then, the auditor general found they overspent by $768,000 and ordered them to pay it back.

Despite the predilection for rugby and sheep farming, New Zealand is not Wales. Neither is their much-lauded governmental agreement necessarily transferable.

For instance, in New Zealand the government is supported by minority parties in exchange for ministers outside of the cabinet. But Welsh legislation wouldn't permit such a deal here.

In the Senedd, it's cabinet or bust. And nobody seems to want to share a table with Brian Gibbons. So, Labour would have to fill the 13 seats themselves. That means means half of Labour's assembly members would end up in government. Bearing in mind that Rosemary Butler is deputy presiding officer, the other 12 would have to spread themselves very thinly indeed across the various scrutiny committees which will be central to the new system.

Martin Shipton will be polishing his axe with relish, because if some of the women in Labour's ranks weren't up to it last time around, they'll find a minority government under the new system even tougher.

In New Zealand, meanwhile, there are 20 members of the ruling party in the government, leaving a further 29 to perform backbench functions.

Neither situation is ideal, but at least down in Mordor there's a somewhat more realistic ratio between ministers and ordinary members within the ruling party.

No doubt some people will use this as an opportunity to call for more assembly members. But that misses the point. The system is designed to work when there are a reasonable amount of people in government. In the end, it might come down to a call from Rhodri to decide whether he considers his 26 members numerous and capable enough to pull it off. As they say in New Zealand, 'He who stands, lives, he who sleeps, dies.'

*lit. 'this is the hairy man'. Line five of the haka, apparently.

Veto or not veto?

2007-05-14T00:50:00.000+01:00

Things are hotting up in Cardiff Bay. You could poach an egg with the steam rising from Peter Black's cranked up assault on his own party's leadership. And elsewhere, there are mutterings and counter-mutterings about what sort of shape the next Government of Wales might take. My confident prediction is pear.

Anyway, before we get on to all that, there's a loose end to tidy up. This weekend, I posted on the practical inevitability of a referendum on conferring further legislative powers on the assembly. But there's been some debate in the comments (and also on other blogs) about whether the Welsh Secretary, currently Peter Hain, could veto such a move.

This is what the Government of Wales Act has to say about it:

(3) The Secretary of State must, within the period of 120 days beginning
immediately after the day on which [the referedum request, section 103(1)] is received—
(a) lay a draft of a statutory instrument containing an Order in Council
under section 103(1) before each House of Parliament, or
(b) give notice in writing to the First Minister of the Secretary of State’s
refusal to do so and the reasons for that refusal.

The answer is emphatically, yes!

Let's say, hypothetically, a Plaid-Tory-Lib Dem coalition takes power. After miraculously winning a two thirds majority vote in the Senedd, Ieuan Wyn Jones, as first minister, activates section 103(1) of the act requesting a referendum. It is, you'll recall, a manifesto commitment for Plaid as it is for the Lib Dems. And yet the Secretary of State still has the statutory footing to kick it into touch.

Of course, the most obvious reason to do so would be that the proposition failed to jump through one of the myriad legislative hoops set out in the act. But with a brand spanking new Counsel General waiting in the wings to advise the new executive, that would be unlikely.

If Peter Hain were to use the veto, then, it would cause an almighty stir.

This may be fantasy politics, but it does point to a potentially sticky situation in which the collective will of the elected representatives of Wales is quashed by one man in Westminster. If he wouldn't use it, why is it there?

Please sir, can we have some more?

2007-05-12T11:41:00.000+01:00

If you read the Government of Wales Act, really read it, you get the sense that the evolution of the assembly into a law-making body is a practical inevitability.

In fact, you get the sense that the legislative purgatory in which the institution currently finds itself is ludicrously arbitrary. When a child begs and begs for an ice cream, you don't snatch it away before it gets a chance to eat the cone.

Much depends, of course, on how the assembly deals with its present extension in powers. But given the cross-party will for an assembly which creates proper 'acts', and which does so independently of the Secretary of State, I would be surprised if this wasn't put to a referendum before the next full term begins.

If anything, the debate over independence in Scotland has made people realise quite how limited our devolved agreement is. Even Northern Ireland out-powers us (though it must be said that ill-feeling in the province is nothing compared to the troubled relationship between certain Plaid Cymru and Labour members). And so, Welsh pride takes another beating. The question 'Are we somehow lesser people than the Scots?' was wondered aloud frequently during the pre-election debate programmes.

I think it will be difficult to resist activating the referendum clause in the Government of Wales Act (though it first requires a two-thirds majority in the Senedd and in parliament). After all, you wouldn't buy yourself tickets to see Madonna and then leave them on the shelf.

The question, then, is when? And there are plenty of options. We could nip it in the bud and have it at the same time as the local elections next year or even the European elections the year after. Or we could have it at the same time as the next general election to encourage maximum participation or at the same time as the next assembly election, for the sake of convenience.

Whatever happens, I don't think it will be long before the assembly is making decisions without Peter Hain's approval. Which is why Plaid Cymru shouldn't sell their soul to win a referendum in the current coalition/agreement negotiations. By 2011, it will be almost impossible for the government to deny Welsh people a say on the way forward. And I believe they will say yes, providing the politicians don't cock it up in the meantime.

Housekeeping

2007-05-11T11:07:00.000+01:00

Thought I'd do a bit of post-election spring cleaning. There's been movement in the sidebar, with some candidate blogs moving up to become AM blogs (OK, just the one) and others disappearing altogether.

I think it's unfortunate, incidentally, that certain candidates and ejected AMs have decided to delete their blogs. Blogging is, after all, a conversation. And when you're having a chat with someone and it doesn't go your way, you don't punch their lights out and tell them to forgot everything you've ever told them. I would have preferred to see those blogs preserved as relics of the 2007 election campaign. They might have made interesting reading in twenty years time.

Never mind, we are never short of new blogs entering the fray. I am now linking to Thoughts of Oscar, Glas, New Welsh Right, Matt Wardman, Llanelli Political Journal, Cascittuni, Mynydd Llwydiarth and View from the Glen. As ever, if you're not on the list, do get in touch. Good luck with it.

There are no new Labour blogs, by the way. And I don't mean no 'New Labour' blogs (only elected representatives seem bold enough to write those), I mean that there are no new blogs from Labour supporters at all.

Ten years ago, when Blair became prime minister, Labour was the 18-30 party. The man was chillin' out with Oasis for God's sake. But what struck me during my own time at university was the relative weakness of the Labour youth movement compared to the Tories and the Lib Dems. So, when commentators such as Simon Jenkins write off the Lib Dems, I think they're being a little premature. They have phenomenal support among the current generation of students and recent graduates. And these chaps may well mature into loyal Lib Dem voters if the party can get the right leader.

Labour, on the other hand, has been tarnished by Iraq and tuition fees. Students like to indulge their radical streak. They like to shout about injustices and societal wrongs. They aren't terribly keen on defending what all their pseudo-intellectual chums are calling the indefensible. A change of leadership is probably just what the Labour party needs to make young people feel a little bit less embarrassed about supporting it. Who knows, they may even start blogging.

PLAID BRACED FOR DIFFICULT RYDER

2007-05-10T09:55:00.001+01:00

Plaid Cymru activists are plotting to remove the party's only list representative in North Wales to pave the way for Dafydd Wigley to return to the assembly. Despite polling over 50,000 votes on the regional list and taking four of the 13 seats available in the region, many were dissappointed by the way the campaign was conducted.

A former Plaid Cymru candidate who stood for election in a North Wales constituency on May 3rd has told this blog that Ms Ryder "will be asked by senior party members in North Wales to stand aside in favour of Wigley." The candidate, who did not wish to be named said: "If she chooses not to she may face an internal party investigation into her conduct in the period before the election and afterwards. It will be made clear to her she does not command the support of the party membership or of the senior activists she needs to be able to do her job properly."

The controversy centers upon what Ms Ryder is alleged to have told activists in Rhuthun, part of the marginal Clwyd West constituency. According to today's edition of Golwg, Plaid's candidate, Phil Edwards, said: "Four or five members of the Rhuthun branch have spoken to me since the election. They claim that Janet Ryder led them to believe that it would be more difficult to get Dafydd Wigley elected if they voted for me in Clwyd West."

Plaid's official line during the election campaign was to urge people to 'Vote Plaid Twice', but a number of people in North Wales have voiced concerns that Ms Ryder was only interested in protecting her own seat. Ms Ryder was the principal beneficiary of what is being called the 'Wigley effect', a swing to Plaid in North Wales attributed to the candidacy of Dafydd Wigley. Ironically, this secured Ms Ryder's return to the assembly, but it fell far short of the number of votes required to bring about the election of the former Plaid leader.

In a further twist, it appears that members of the Wigley camp are central to the plot to oust Ms Ryder, though there is no suggestion that he is implicated. If Ms Ryder were to stand down, however, as the second list candidate Mr Wigley would be set for a sensational return to frontline politics.

Ms Ryder declined to comment when Golwg contacted her before going to press.

Read more on this story along with the first of my columns in today's edition of GOLWG.

UPDATE: Tony Blair has announced that he is standing down as Prime Minister. Thank God Desperate Housewives was squeezed in last night before the inevitable colonisation of the airwaves.

Maes-e ar gau

2007-05-10T01:29:00.000+01:00

Erthygl 10 o'r Confensiwn Ewropeaidd ar Hawliau Dynol (wedi addasu ar gyfer y we):

"Mae gan bawb yr hawl i ryddid mynegiant (Ar wahan i bobl sydd am wneud sylw ar maes-e). Bydd yr hawl hon yn cynnwys rhyddid i gael barn ac i gael a rhoi gwybodaeth a syniadau heb ymyriad gan awdurdod cyhoeddus (Ar wahan i'r bobl sy'n rheolu mae-e) a heb ystyried ffiniau (Ar wahan i ffiniau maes-e). Ni fydd yr Erthygl hon yn atal Gwledydd rhag pennu gofyniad i drwyddedu mentrau darlledu, teledu neu sinema."

Dim ond eisiau mynegi barn ydw i...

Buremaberu Burifusu

2007-05-09T17:27:00.000+01:00

In case any of you have ever wondered what I got up to last year, here's a clue:

http://www.daiichi-ue.ac.jp/

It shouldn't take you long to spot me:)

Scotland 0 - 1 Wales

2007-05-09T11:21:00.000+01:00

While there's little chance of a scoreline like that in football at the moment, we are at least pushing ahead with the business of running our country.

Seems that the chaps up north are too busy arguing over the size of each other's cabers to get on with electing a presiding officer, so they've postponed it until next week.

In the Senedd, this afternoon, Dafydd Elis Thomas will win the top job, with Labour's Rosemary Butler set to be his deputy.

I'm off to witness the mêlée and to see if I can detect any hints from the body language of the party leaders. It's rumoured that Mike German will sacrifice his usual seat on the right side of the chamber to sit on Rhodri Morgan's lap instead.

UPDATE: Just back from the Senedd. Rosemary Butler was elected Deptuty Presiding Officer, as expected. She received a hearty round of applause and even a couple of requests to sing. This opens up a potential can of worms in the event of a Plaid-Labour agreement, which you can read about HERE.

I was there today as brother of one of the newly elected AMs. We have a very small family and I was the only one who could make it. It's a daunting place to have to be for a first day at work so it's important that somebody was there. I won't, therefore, report on anything I saw or heard outside what could be seen publicly.

For me, though, what was notable was how the Lib Dems marched off and left the rebellious Peter Black alone at the end of the session. It seems that all is not well in the golden camp.

In the blue camp, they're still hoping to be part of coalition negotiations. A spot quizz on the names of the new Tory intake caught the press officer unaware. The name of the new AM for Clwyd West momentarily escaped him. I expect, however, that we'll all be hearing a lot more about Darren Millar in the coming weeks and months.

As for Labour and Plaid, both looked jolly. One thing I noticed: Carl Sargeant was sitting on the front bench... surely not?

Said and done

2007-05-09T02:07:00.000+01:00

Without doubt, the most common criticism of politicians is that they allow torrents of unmitigated tosh to spew forth from their mouths at every available opportunity. Normal people can tell that they are talking complete rubbish. For some strange reason, politicians cannot.

This election campaign was no different.

Here's my handy guide to what they said, as opposed to what actually happened:

Rhodri Morgan (Labour)
"If we don’t get our vote out and the three minor parties do, a Tory-led coalition will trundle Wales backwards as a country at a rate of knots.

This election is the choice between a return to a grim Tory past and a bright Labour future.

This election is about that stark choice between seeing the dole queues continue to get shorter and shorter under Labour or risking a return to 120,000 people on the dole in Wales, with the Tories in charge."

Imagine my disappointment when I woke up on May 4th and, despite there being no Labour majority, Wales wasn't hurtling backwards at a rate of knots outside my window. Neither was there any kind of Tory-led coalition to speak of. Nor a 120,000-long dole queue snaking down the street. The only queue was for the ice cream van down the road, and I don't think any of those people had even bothered to vote.

Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid)
"We can win five seats in North Wales. Me as the First Minister elected from Anglesey (if the party does well in the rest of Wales) and Dafydd Wigley on the list aswell with Janet Ryder”"

Number of seats won by Plaid in North Wales: 4
Number of votes between Dafydd Wigley and a return to Welsh politics: 6,644

Nick Bourne (Conservative)
"Plaid Cymru's vague aspirations and wild spending plans will not fool voters. They are a clear indication that the nationalists are neither responsible nor a serious political party."

Number of seats won by Plaid Cymru: 15 (+3)
Number of seats won by the Conservatives: 12 (+1)
Conclusion: Voters were 'fooled' by Plaid Cymru's 'vague aspirations and wild spending plans'. Idiots.

Mike German (Lib Dems)
"The more votes we get, the more seats we win, the more influence we will have in the new Assembly government.

Our party has great hopes on the regional lists. But I have to tell you the regional list is more misunderstood than Richard Brunstrom in a room full of Labour MPs.

We can win extra seats in every part of Wales."

Number of extra seats won in every party of Wales: 0
Number of extra seats won in any part of Wales: 0
Lib Dem share of the regional vote in 2003: 12.7%
Lib Dem share of the regional vote in 2007: 11.8%
Number of leaflets delivered by Lib Dem activists: 4,367,892,562,099,454,235,861...

As stable as a unicyclist with a flat tyre

2007-05-08T12:52:00.000+01:00

At the moment, all the talk coming from the leaders of the four parties is about securing a stable government.

But, let's be frank. It ain't going to happen.

Take the prospect of a Lab-Lib pact. Rhodri says it's an 'inedible' choice. Great start - like telling your date she's a minger before you've even got to the main course. Meanwhile, a 'senior Labour source' says, "we should try to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. Our philosophy towards them should be, ‘hug them close and strangle them slowly’." There is something very disturbing about that philosophy, and it does not bode well for a future stable government.

Take the prospect of a Plaid-Labour pact. Rhodri says it's an 'unpalatable' choice. But is it really? Incest or perhaps even watching golf are unpalatable choices. Rhodri is simply talking about forming a responsible government for Wales.

Never mind, Plaid Cymru would prefer to sacrifice their best ever chance of power, with Ieuan Wyn Jones as first minister in a rainbow coalition, because they aren't confident enough they could make a difference.

You know what they always say about Iraq - there was no exit strategy. Well, you could say the same about this election. The biggest lie of all was that 'the people of Wales will decide the composition of the next assembly government', spouted by politicians from all directions. That's simply not true. Some people voted Plaid on the understanding they'd stay in opposition, others on the presumption they'd work with Labour and others on the offchance they'd team up with the Tories. Despite constant pushing from the media, it was never clear where their preference lay. They certainly didn't say they'd prefer to stay in opposition, which is what Deputy Leader Rhodri Glyn Thomas has said today.

So, in the end, the politicians will decide the composition of the next assembly government. And the people might not be best pleased.

UPDATE: May I welcome readers from The Times. I must warn you, though, that there's rather a lot of talk about Welsh stuff here. We're the country to the left of Shrewsbury - adopted homeland of your next Deputy Prime Minister:)

Presiding over chaos

2007-05-08T00:46:00.000+01:00

The new Welsh assembly meets for the first time tomorrow, and Dafydd Elis Thomas is a cert for the Presiding Officer's chair. Frankly, the chances of him surrendering that seat are about as likely as Charlotte Church naming her baby 'Christian'.

But the race for the position of Deputy Presiding Officer is much more open. I've heard the names Jenny Randerson, Gwenda Thomas and Lorraine Barrett floated, though for comedy value I'd like to see Carl Sargeant rise to the challenge.

This time around, however, the assembly can't elect a PO and DPO from the same political group. They also can't elect a PO and DPO from different political groups where both or neither have an executive role. In other words, unlike for the last eight years, one of the presiding officer roles has to be taken by someone from the ruling party/coalition.

Problem is, I doubt very much there will be a ruling coalition by tomorrow. At the moment, the situation in the assembly is like a primary school classroom when the teacher has nipped out for a crafty pee. Nobody knows who's in charge.

But the identity of the Deputy Presiding Officer might at least give us a clue about how coalition talks are going. My hunch is that a Labour bod will be put forward this time around as Rhodri Morgan flutters his eyelashes in Ieuan Wyn Jones' direction. If, however, we see the Lib Dems' Jenny Randerson in the chair, we'll know that Mike German has been warming Rhodri's bed, with Kirsty Williams squeezed in beside them.

It is quite likely, however, that a PO and DPO could be elected who later turn out to be on the same side of the political divide. That means they'll have to resign unless someone proposes a motion for them to stay. How convenient that there's such a get out clause enshrined in the standing orders. Sums up Welsh government, really, doesn't it? 'Right, so either you stay and I go, or I stay and you go, or we both go, or... we activate the loophole and keep our extra £40,000 a year.'

Anyway, for what it's worth, many politicians now believe it's Labour's turn to take one of the vote-nullifying administrative roles. If they can find someone who is happy and content to break bread with Dafydd El, then they should put them forward. After all, £72,000 a year just for sipping spring water and telling Rhodri Glyn Thomas to shut his trap isn't such a bad deal.

You, my friends, signify nothing

2007-05-07T00:08:00.000+01:00

I'm so sorry to have to tell you this... But you, my friends, signify nothing.

That's the message from Rhondda AM Leighton Andrews. Returning to his normal blog, the man who is now in possession of one of the largest Labour majorities in Wales has given the following appraisal of the Welsh political blogosphere:

I wasn't that impressed with the so-called 'Welsh blogosphere' during the campaign...

Too many blogs, including this one, seemed more interested in gossip and rumour. When that spreads to the BBC, it's bad news. The Beeb should apply the same standards to its blogs as to the rest of its news coverage. I do agree with this one that the absence of competition in the Welsh news media gives more opportunity for bloggers, but having now caught up with some of the blogging from election night itself, it seems to have been largely based on rumours which were being broadcast on the mainstream media anyway. Welsh bloggers need better sources if they are going to make waves...

To me, this seems like an odd analysis of the contribution blogs have made to the election, and one which is at odds with everything I've heard from other notable personalities and plenty of ordinary Joes too.

So, I posted this reply:

Leighton, you appear to fundamentally misunderstand the purpose of the blogosphere.

If it's to break stories, well then, that's news to me:)

Its most significant contribution has been to provide a platform for analysis and debate. To allow people, no matter if they're a mam from Merthyr, a politician experimenting with being honest or a pensioner from North Wales, to have their say. If it's interesting enough, people will read it.

It is, after all, a meritocracy out there...

To my surprise, Mr Andrews responded almost instantly:

Yes, I thought my comments would upset you.

Having blogged for two and a half years, I'm afraid my conclusion is that the Welsh so-called blogosphere is a self-referential realm, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Having a blog has improved the hit rate on my web presence ten-fold; it's been a useful platform for some of my campaigns; but its influence on Welsh politics - and overall, the Welsh media - is zilch.

By the way, were you born pompous?

Well, no, I replied, assuming that Mr Andrews was joking. (Huw Edwards, by the way, was definitely joking, we cleared that one up!)

Also, I can't speak for you lot, but this blog is devoid of any 'fury'. The only time I've got worked up is in support of my beloved Cardiff City. And as a fellow bluebird, I'm sure Mr Andrews would understand.

What he appears not to understand, however, is the contribution YOU have made to this election by insisting on having your say, whether in your own blogs (and there are new ones every day) or in the comments section of others.

The overwhelming political sentiments of recent times are apathy and an erosion of trust in our elected politicians. The blogosphere, used appropriately, is a partial remedy to both. Surely, something is better than nothing?

Sunday lunch coalition update

2007-05-06T12:49:00.000+01:00

We've just learnt a lot more about what sort of shape the government of Wales might take. Thanks to the BBC, of course.

Liberal Democrats aren't keen on a coalition with Labour (no matter what their leader thinks). Back at you, say Labour, who aren't keen on a coalition with the Liberal Democrats either. Neither are the unionist wing of the party sold on a deal with Plaid. Merthyr AM Huw Lewis said he was personally opposed to any outcome which involved Plaid ministers in cabinet.

Step forward Lord Dafydd Elis Thomas with yet another option: an 'agreement' between Plaid and Labour in which Plaid AMs abstain on key votes to stop the government from collapsing. What Dafydd-El didn't say was that Plaid would demand a big prize in exchange for sanctioning such a deal. A referendum on further devolution by 2011 springs to mind.

Bloody hell, he's only gone and read this blog between finishing the Politics Show and appearing on S4C's Maniffesto programme. Speaking in Welsh, he said that for him, the dealbreaker would be a referendum on Scottish style powers to further the cause of devolution. I suspect other Plaid AMs think the same.

So, that's the carrot for Plaid supporters. However, the stick would inevitably be used to prop Labour up, which is exactly what they said they wouldn't do.

Auf Wiedersehen Mike

2007-05-06T00:16:00.000+01:00

I am no Peter Snow. But I shall now use simple statistics to demonstrate how Mike German has fared as Liberal Democrat leader since 1999. His days ~~are numbered~~ in numbers:

1999 6 seats
2003 6 (=)
2007 6 (=)

On a graph, that performance would look something like this: -------------------------------------------------------------------
It bears more than a passing resemblance to a flat line. That's why we call it flatlining.

In general, politicians like this line to go up. That means they are making progress. If the line doesn't go up, that means they are not making progress. If they are not making progress, people start looking around for alternatives. For the Welsh Lib Dems, the search has begun.

As you can tell from the numbers above, the Lib Dems only have six assembly members. Three of them are agitating for a change of leader, one of them is keeping quiet (because she's the person they are agitating on behalf), another is staying loyal to Mike German and the last one is Mike German. If that's an endorsement, it's ringing about as loudly as a lonely castanet. The message is, as the photo suggests, that the Lib Dems under Mike German are a little bit lost.

One of the agitators, Peter Black, has admitted that he "questioned Mike German's leadership in the AM Group and the National Executive." It is his wish that these objections are now on the record in public. He has also quoted uncritically on his blog from an article which states that "after three campaigns at the helm, Mike German can’t avoid responsibility."

Indeed, in three campaigns, Mike German has tallied 666. The omens are not good. At this rate, I'd be surprised if he survives the lunchtime politics programmes.

1240 UPDATE: Peter Black has just called for a leadership contest. Speaking on the BBC's Politics Show (reinforced by a blog post on the same subject) he said that if Mike German wants to take the party forward he'd have to win a vote. He also stated that he wanted the Lib Dems to be in opposition for the next assembly term, the precise opposite of what Mike German has been saying for the past weeks and months.

101 ways to prop up a 'failed Labour administration'*

2007-05-05T12:53:00.000+01:00

Peter Black, newly re-elected Lib Dem AM for South Wales West, knows exactly what he is doing.

Yesterday's blog post got the ball rolling. 'It is clear that we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think,' he wrote. For 'radical re-think' read 'leadership contest,' I responded. He had opportunities to deny this both on my blog and on Radio Wales. He chose not to do so.

And today, he's at it again: 'My instincts are that the Welsh Liberal Democrats do not have to be the deal-makers in this process. We have our own issues to sort out first around where we are going as a party and what sort of image we project to the Welsh public.'

It's now acknowledged that the leaders of Lib Dem councils are not keen on a Lab-Lib pact. Their long-term strategy is based on undermining Labour, not propping it up. In addition, one third of the Lib Dem assembly group have now spoken out against a Labour coalition. OK, so that only adds Eleanor Burnham to the mix (so far), but that's the Lib Dems' fault for only getting six assembly members. When the numbers are this small the fractions are more significant.

These prominent dissenting voices make a coalition with Labour increasingly unlikely. It was also the least preferred option of people quizzed in the little-reported BBC election night poll.

So, where does that leave Welsh governance? Heading towards either a rainbow coalition or a Plaid/Labour agreement, I guess. And as I trawled through the archived articles of the election period, I came across this quotation from Plaid, time and time again: 'We would not go into coalition under a Conservative First Minister and we would not prop up a Labour Government either.'

Only once did a caveat pop up. And it popped up as Ieuan Wyn Jones and Matt Withers were licking the froth off their coffee spoons in Cardiff Bay. 'We wouldn't prop up a Labour government simply by agreeing on minor issues,' said IWJ as a spot of cappucino foam inadvertantly perched itself on the end of his nose.

I would've thought, then, that working out what constitutes a major issue would have been a priority for the new Plaid group as it met for the first time yesterday.

*-100

FINAL SCORE: Winners and losers

2007-05-04T15:13:00.000+01:00

Bugger. You just knew it was going to happen, didn't you? After all that hype about it being the most closely fought election ever, it was inevitable that the result itself would conspire to be as clear as mud (mixed up with a bit of boot polish for good measure).

Lib Dems: The big losers of the night. Sure, they consolidated in certain areas and have a few second-placed platforms to build on for next time. But for this strategy to work, it had to be accompanied by list gains. It wasn't. To win no additional seats has to be seen as a failure. South Wales West AM Peter Black has already written on his blog that "it is clear we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think as to where we are going and how we sell ourselves, our policies and our philosophy to the Welsh electorate."

Sounds to me like the prelude to a leadership contest. In which case, Brecon AM Kirsty Williams would surely be favourite. Crucially, a change of hands at the top would make a Lab-Lib coalition easier to stomach for Lib Dem activists. Alternatively, Kirsty might sever the ties with what she's consistently called a 'failing Labour administration' and shake things up by entering a rainbow coalition. Either way, if they need a "fresh approach", they know they've got one ready and waiting.

1830 UPDATE: I've just spoken on Radio Wales about this very issue. Next up for interview was Peter Black. It was notable, I think, that he sounded distinctly unimpressed by the prospect of a Lab-Lib coalition and he fell way short of giving his leader, Mike German, a vote of confidence.

Labour: People keep saying this has been a bitter sweet night for Labour. Would Rhodri have resigned on 24 seats? We'll never know. What's certain is that a return of 26 seats and a loss of five consituency seats is a significant erosion of Labour's power base. Depending on the shape of our politics for the next four years, this election may have laid down the ground for further missions into Labour territory in places like Vale of Clwyd, Newport East & West, Delyn, Vale of Glamorgan, Neath and even Caerphilly.

The overall picture is more complicated than the final tally of seats will probably suggest. It's impossible to spin this as any kind of victory. For Labour to be on the ropes like this in so many parts of Wales is a wake up call. If this result it to be 'spun', perhaps it can be done in such a way that the people of Wales are under the impression that its government has learned a few lessons.

Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives: I know you're going to have a go at me for clumping these two together. But at the time of writing, South Wales West still hasn't declared. * And anyway, don't you think it's nice seeing those two names side by side? Both winners, though who comes out definitively on top will be revealed shortly.

OK. I'll say it. Just this once. You've only got to look at the final figures to see that Plaid were the biggest winners in this election. They ran the most professional campaign and they had the most memorable policies (whether you agree with them or not, especially on student fee repayment apartheid:). We'll have to wait and see if Ieuan Wyn Jones will seize on this momentum to take Plaid into government in Wales for the first time in its history.

*Just spoken to a source at the count. It looks like Plaid have hung on to the second list seat putting them on 15 (+3) to the Tories' 12 (+1).

1647 UPDATE: Plaid take two seat in South West Wales, Tories 1, Lib Dems 1.

1830 UPDATE: I'm told Ieuan Wyn Jones is backtracking on what constitutes 'propping up a failed Labour administration'. In fact, I was told live on Good Evening Wales and was somewhat stumped by it. IWJ is now saying he wouldn't want a day-to-day agreement - so he's hinting at something more permanent. A coalition, then? After the campaign Plaid have fought, I'm shocked that they appear to be considering such an option so soon after the result. They need time to reflect, and time to work out what 'propping up' really means.

THE FINAL RESULT IS AS FOLLOWS:
LAB 26 (-3)
PC 15 (+3)
CON 12 (+1)
LD 6 (=)
IND 1 (-1)

Election 2007 in words and numbers

2007-05-04T08:52:00.000+01:00

Scottish people seem to have got terribly confused between numbers and letters. Bless them. That's slowed things down up north.

Here in Wales, the picture is much clearer. And it looks something like this:

Constiuency gains
Labour:
Wrexham, from Independent

Plaid:
Aberconwy, from Labour
Llanelli, from Labour

Conservatives:
Cardiff North, from Labour
Clwyd West, from Labour
Preseli, from Labour
Carmarthen West, from Labour

Regional Vote
North Wales:
CON 2 (=), PC 1 (=), LD 1 (=)

South Wales East:
PC 2 (+1), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (=)

Mid & West Wales:
LAB 2 (+2), CON 1 (-2), PC 1 (=)

South Wales Central (probable):
PC 2 (=), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (+1)

South Wales Central (actual outcome):
PC 2 (=), CON 2 (=)

South Wales West (probable):
PC 2 (=), LD 1 (=), CON 1 (=)

Total seats:
LAB 26 (-3), PC 15 (+3), Con 12 (+1), LD 6 (=), IND 1 (-1)
* or PC 14, CON 13 depending on South Wales West regional.

Likely coalition:
Lab-Lib most likely. But the Lib Dems would have to sell this to their members. They may make demands Labour are unwilling to deliver. One possible outcome is that Jenny Randerson (Lib Dem, Cardiff Central) occupies the vacant Deputy Presiding Offcier's chair and that Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon) enters the cabinet along with the party leader Mike German. But Plaid haven't gone to all this effort for nothing. Don't rule out a move from them later today.

Glyn, Goodbye and Good Luck

2007-05-04T08:05:00.000+01:00

From inside the BBC's election hub there has been universal cross-party, cross-media sadness that Glyn Davies has been the unfortunate victim of the Conservatives' success in the Mid and West Wales region. It's a sentiment sure to be echoed in Plaid, Labour and Lib Dem HQ. There cannot have been a more respected politician in the Senedd during the last four years.

Gaining Preseli was always on the cards for the Conservatives. But Carmarthen West was an outside shot. It should have been Plaid's. It wasn't, and the Tories paid dearly on the list.

Glyn's blog and his attitude towards politics in general are a credit to his profession. Indeed, Glyn's honesty and frankness set him apart from his peers. Even on the last day of campaigning he stayed true to his principles and would not speak ill of the Polish immigrants in his constituency in order to earn a few cheap, slimy votes.

Glyn, you will be missed. And I sincerely hope you continue to blog. As long as it's not about gardening.

Not a Labour meltdown but a definite thaw

2007-05-04T06:29:00.000+01:00

Good Morning, Bore Da! If you've been following all night, imagine I'm saying that in a Berkshire accent.

Top lines:

Labour get almost half the seats with less than a third of the vote.

There is a Cameron effect. The Tories have picked up an extra four constituencies in Wales and came very close in three others.

Plaid have pushed on. This was a professional campaign, with clearly defined goals. With the exception of Carmarthen West, they were achieved.

For the Lib Dems this was an election for consolidation. They are now well-placed for 2011.

BNP perform worryingly well - scoring over 5% of the vote on the North Wales regional list.

But, Plaid elect the first ethnic minority assembly member - Mohammad 'Oscar' Asghar in South Wales East. Good for him. He's a great dancer too.

No sensational returns for Dafydd Wigley and Ron Davies.

At the time of writing (6.30am) there's a third recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour are apparently ahead by 82 votes.

This has been a Labour capitulation, but without the accompanying loss of seats.

It looks like they'll end up with 26 seats. Rhodri Morgan will be picking up the phone. And Lib Dem leader Mike German will be answering it.

Final prediction:
Lab 26
Plaid 14
Con 12
Lib Dems 7
Ind 1

Good night all. And thank you very much for your company. It's been a blast, even if the result has been disappointingly damp and ambivalent.

0750 UPDATE: Mid & West Wales Regional. Lab 2, PC 1, Con 1. The PR system comes to Labour's rescue. The Tories trade two constituency seats for two regionals. Such is life.

The Vale of Glamorgan is now being called as a Labour hold. But by just 82 votes. Jammy jammy Jane the Hutt.

Oh, and in South Wales West, which resumes at 2pm, it's a straight fight for the fourth regional seat between Dai Lloyd (Plaid) and Chris Smart (Tories). But I'll be buggered if I'm staying awake till then. Head on the block, I'm calling this for Plaid.

RESULTS THREAD

2007-05-04T02:13:00.000+01:00

THANK YOU: Excellent work tonight chaps. Thank you all for your contributions, especially those who commented and even more so those who blogged live for the duration. We knocked the socks off England and Scotland.

This blog received an inordinate amount of hits and a total of 188 comments up until the more reflective posts this morning. I think I read them all. On top of that I've been having some great email exchanges - one with a teenage girl who's curious to know more about politics, good for you and keep in touch; another with Kirsty Willliams' sister who is based in Australia and followed proceedings on this blog. There were many more besides. Let's hope the people we've elected tonight can deliver a more engaging brand of politics than they've managed so far. That's the only way to keep this exciting conversation going.

Regional roundup:
North Wales - CON 2, PC 1, LD 1; South Wales East - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1; South Wales Central (probable) - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1, Mid & West LAB 2, CON 1, PC 1,; South Wales West (probable) - PC 1/2, LD 1, CON 1/2.

Bridgend: Labour hold and the majority even goes up slightly. Now, what was the point of that? I've concluded the counters in Bridgend and Ogmore are inept.

Plaid's haul so far: Ten seats. But they look like getting another two in South Wales West and maybe another in Mid & West Wales.

Vale of Glamorgan: Look to be spent for the night. Counters being sent home. Resuming at 9am. South Wales West list saying another two hours. Noooo. Please. Nooo. Actually, no. South Wales West saying not until 2pm!

Other regions: No change in South Wales West, we think. Loads of results missing in South Wales Central so difficult to call, although it looks like PC2, Con1, LD1. As for Mid & West Wales, that looks like being Lab2, Con 1, and the last list seat???? possibly Plaid? Sorry, Glyn.

Bridgend: What's going on there? Why the wait? Is this the end of the 'nationalist wing' of the Labour party?

South Wales East Regional: Mohammad Ashgar becomes the first AM from an ethnic minority background. He will really liven the assembly up. When ever I need a giggle I cast my mind back to the Plaid autumn conference and Mohammad Ashgar doing a crazy dance on the stage as Ieuan Wyn Jones looked on bewildered. PC 2, LD 1, CON 1. Laura Anne Jones is a gonner. Shame, as an Oxbridge type I much prefer young Tory women to middle-aged Labour mums as a general rule.

Ogmore: At last. Almost tempted not to blog it out of spite. Labour hold.

Alun Pugh: Former Assembly Member. "Clwyd West has reverted to type." Hardly a ringing endorsement of ten years of Labour rule though, is it?

North Wales Regional: CON 2, PC 1, LD 1. BNP get 5.1% of the vote and finish fifth. No return for Dafydd Wigley. I think that's the last we'll see of him unless he fancies following Dafydd-El into the House of Lords. No change.

Cameron effect: I think it's fair to say there is one. Tories have already made three constituency gains compared to Plaid's one.

Clwyd West: Have we seen the last Alun Pugh gaffe as an elected assembly member? PC 7,162 CON 8,905 LAB 7,309. Well, yes indeed we have. Another Tory GAIN. Bet Iain Dale is gutted he's missing this.

Carmarthen West: CON 8,590 PC 8,340 LAB 8,492. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm. Big big shock. Should have been a Plaid gain, but the Tories take it from Labour.

The Great UK Blog-off: Bloggers still awake and active at 05:30. England 0ish, Scotland 2?, Wales 6. We've stormed it bois bach (even if there's one notable absentee:). Even celebrity uber-blogger Iain Dale has packed it in and gone to sleep.

Aberconwy: Dylan Jones-Evans fought long and hard, but this has all the signs of being a Plaid gain (or notional hold if you want to go in for all that jizz)... And so it is. Plaid now on seven seats overall.

Still to come: Carmarthen West (Tory gain), Bridgend (Probably Lab, but Tories are pushing), Clwyd West (Still too close to call), Aberconwy (Plaid, surely?), Ogmore (what's their game? Get a move on!), Vale of Glamorgan (we're hearing that Labour are behind, second recount underway). And then there's the small matter of the regional seats. It could be the end of the road for affable Tory Glyn Davies. But could Labour, despite polling less than a third of the popular vote, keep pulling off compensatory gains - perhaps even *three* of four in Mid & West Wales.

Pobl y Cwm set update: I've cracked. I'm now drinking it.

Carmarthen West: Tory gain, I'm told. Is this the end for Glyn Davies? Nooooo.

Clwyd South: Labour hold.

Cardiff North: Tory GAIN. And a five thousand majority gain at that. The Labour vote held up, but the Tory vote hit it with its rhythm stick and danced on its grave.

Vale of Glamorgan EXCLUSIVE: Second recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. And cabinet minister Jane Hutt could be behind. This is a loss that Labour will struggle to make up elsewhere. One to watch...

EXCLUSIVE: BNP are going to be the FIFTH placed party on the regional list. Staggering. In Wrexham they've polled over 9%. It's pulled down in other areas so they won't get an assembly member. But they are by now by far the strongest minority party.

Wrexham: So as the former Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis Thomas romps home, his sparring partner and Deputy, John Marek loses out in Wrexham. I think this is my first incorrect prediction. Bugger. Labour GAIN from Ind.

Rhondda: Leighton Andrews holds for Labour. Another leadership contender is still in there. How long before the plotting begins?

Brecon: For my readers down under. Kirsty Williams polls over 50% of the vote, increasing the Lib Dems' share. Definitely one for the future. Perhaps the not so distant future.

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tories NEED this. And they've got it. A huge turnaround. Tory GAIN. From a 1,300 Labour majority to a 3,200 Tory majority.

Carmarthen East: Rhodri 'who the f*ck is that Blamerbell chap' Thomas holds for Plaid with a hefty majority. Turnout 55.7% and the majority effectively doubled. Wish I was at the Plaid party now. Got an invite but they're packing up at 6am. Where can I get a drink at that time of the morning?

Aberconwy update: Tory candidate Dylan J-E says result will be 5am at the earliest. It's close.

Cardiff West: Rhodri Morgan's seat... And his majority is SLICED IN HALF (By a 21 year old)! What does he have to say for himself then? He's on an athletics analogy at the moment. I thought they were Ming's speciality... "It looks as though Labour will be by far the largest party in the Assembly. It's very dangerous to tempt fate, but it looks better now than it did a few hours ago... I feel very upbeat about the state of Welsh Labour and our relationship with the Welsh people." Upbeat. But in a few hours he could be banging the funeral drum.

Gower: Labour hold. But majority is down 4496! That's huge. Holding on, says the Labour MP in the studio, but holding on to seats they should never have been in any danger of losing.

Scarf watch: I can't see any TVs other than those silly election 2007 graphics behind me. Tell me about the scarf. Is it a new one? I like to log them all in an excel spreadsheet so I need to know. Do you think she got it from Dorothy Perkins?

EH?: Recount in the Rhondda. I don't think it's because Plaid are anywhere near Leighton Andrews. But apparently a load of ballot papers ended up in the wrong pile. Plaid complained and now they're counting again.

Newport East: EXCLUSIVE! John Redwood is doing a turn as returning officer. [Pissing myself here]. Labour hold. A 3,464 majority falls to 900. Good result for the Lib Dems.

Ieuan Wyn Jones: "The electorate has voted for change. I stand ready to play my part in discussions with other parties." Don't go away. Coalition talk to come.

Monmouth: Tories hold Monmouth. As Pink Floyd would say: 'Is there anybody out there?'

BNP Alert: They're polling four figure returns in a lot of regional votes. A worrying development.

Alyn & Deeside and Torfaen are both Labour holds. I've just had a cheese croissant. They really do look after you here. Dave Rodway joins us from a Holiday Inn. I do hope he's wearing some clothes.

Ynys Mon: Plaid hold. Independent candidate Peter Rogers storms into second place. Poor show from the Tories. Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones (still in with a shout as the next First Minister?).

Newport West: The returning officer is a loon. Anyway, Tories again come close, but no cigar. As in Clwyd South and Delyn they can't get to that finishing line. Will they pull it off in Preseli?

Delyn: Labour hold. So far my predictions are going well.

Llanelli (for real this time): PLAID GAIN FROM LABOUR. And it's a hammering. A 21 vote Labour majority becomes a Plaid majority of almost 4,000!! This is the first seat that was predictably marginal. So it's all to play for from here on in.

Ceredigion: Plaid hold comfortably. Lib Dems got 3,000 more voters out but Plaid learnt the lesson from 2005.

Llanelli: DRUM ROLL. Remember, Labour have conceded this already. But never say never... 21 votes in it last time. Squeaky bums, squeaky bums. Will the scarfed seductress make it back? That's Helen Mary Jones by the way. I'm high on caffeine now. Pobl y Cwm booze is still tempting.

Cardiff Central: Lib Dem hold.

Neath: Labour hold. Gwenda 'open vowels' Thomas hangs on. Majority down by 3,000. Plaid up 18.6% from last General Election.

Whisper: Carmarthen West heading for a recount.

Dwyfor Meirionydd: Dafydd Elis Thomas popping the champers already? Yes indeedy. Plaid majority up a grand.

Caerphilly: Ron Davies to let Plaid in through the back door??? No, but it was damn close. A 4,000 majority sliced in half. Labour hold.

Scotland: Alex Salmond elected to Scottish parliament in Gordon. Game on.

Whisper: Labour to lose deposit in Ceredigion.

Aberavon: Labour hold. No kidding.

Vale of Clwyd: Labour hold by just 92 votes. Skin of the teeth. Still, if we're going to use words like 'meltdown' these are the kind of seats you'd Labour would have to lose.

Arfon: Can Martin Eaglestone pull off a miracle for Labour? No. Plaid increase their majority. Plaid hold.

Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold. Another reduced majority.

Swansea West: Labour hold. A future First Minister makes his way back to the Senedd. (He'll be watching Rhodri's movements with great interest). Lib Dems (they were right on the second placed tip), finish ahead of Plaid Cymru.

Montgomeryshrie: Lib Dem hold.

Pontypridd: Labour hold but again, majority down by around 20%

Swansea East: Labour hold. Lib Dems in second as predicted.

Merthyr Tydfil: Labour hold but majority down 23%. Plaid vote down.

Whisper: Tories ahead in Vale of Clwyd. By a whisker.

Nonsense prediction: Plaid to win Merthyr. Would require a swing of 23%. Anyone there or know anyone who is there? If it's true I'll streak through the BBC studio.

Cynon Valley: Labour hold. Just over the mountain from me. Plaid up, Labour down. No big shakes there.

Blaenau Gwent: Independent candidate Trish Law romps home with a staggering 12,722 votes, 54.1% of the vote. Hold.
In her victory speech, 'Trish' as she is affectionately known, said: "The people of Blaenau Gwent have once again sent a message to the main political parties that they really must put people before politics." The Independent culture (no not the one Plaid Cymru won't talk about) of Welsh politics lives on.

Lib Dem update: 'we're set for second place'

2007-05-04T02:06:00.000+01:00

After all that fuss about Newport East, Lib Dems are now saying they are set for second in Newport East, Monmouth, Swansea East and West. And despite a huge effort, second in Ceredigion too.

We got all excited about the prospect of a Lib Dem constituency gain. Doesn't look like it's going to happen. Still, they're in with a shout for a couple of regionals.

ISLWYN: FIRST RESULT

2007-05-04T02:00:00.000+01:00

Kevin Etheridge (IND) 6,665
Irene James (LAB) 8,883
Mark McGuire (LD) 1,135
Alan Pritchard (PC) 5,084
Paul Williams (CON) 1,797

Tame start to proceedings. You'll note that we predicted this one a long time ago.

BUT. Last time this was a majority of around 8,000. Now it's just over 2,000. That's a drop of 18% (or 27% since the General Election).

Unfortunately, I don't think Islwyn is a seat we can realistically take as a microcosm of the way Wales will vote. More to come...

The very latest predictions

2007-05-04T01:26:00.000+01:00

- S4C are apparently calling NEATH the possible surprise story of the night. You won't be surprised to hear that Plaid insiders have been telling me this for ages. They even persuaded Dafydd Wigley to have a walk around in the town centre. Plaid are saying they've probably won the election day vote. But the postal votes should still see Labour through.

- Bridgend update. Tories say it's "very close".

- ABERCONWY UPDATE: From Tory candidate Dylan Jones-Evans. He says he still has no idea which way it will go. Labour looks to be out of it and the Lib Dems (as expected) are non-existent. Still all to play for then, but I hear Plaid are very optimistic.

- Some of you are asking about the Rhondda. Expert analysis from the Beeb's Guto Thomas is that after Burberry only God could beat Leighton. Well, he didn't actually say that. I made it more dramatic. But still, you get the gist.

- Bridgend looking dodgy. Who'll be the next leader of the Labour party if Carwyn Jones doesn't make it through the nigh?

- Tories set to take Delyn.

- Newport East, Newport East, Newport East. But could it finish off Lib Dem leader Mike German? Kirsty Williams (safe in Brecon) is poised.

Berkshire????

2007-05-04T01:12:00.000+01:00

Doesn't Huw Edwards know I hark from the rolling hills of Merthyr?

Nuff said.

*An email tells me that it may not be clear in the studio that I am simply relaying comments and emails from visitors to my blog. Apparently it seems like I'm accusing Huw Edwards of accent fraud. No way, I think it's lovely.

Five minute first past the post quiz

2007-05-04T00:59:00.000+01:00

Hmm. Quizzes are notoriously difficult to pull off on blogs because you just end up copying each other's answers.

So, here's the deal. It's called a five minute first past the post quiz, because you have to wait until five minutes after the post time to publish your answers. Then, it's a free for all and the first commenter with a complete set of answers is the winner. Unless it goes on for ages. In which case I'll penalise you for every five minutes you delay. There, it's simple!

Prize: something I can steal from the BBC without them noticing.

Remember, you can't post your answers for five minutes or you're disqualified.

1. In which constituency will you find the village of Penisarwain?
2. What do Felipe Calderon, Benjamin Netanyahu and Rhodri Morgan have in common?
3. If Welsh Lib Dem leader Mike German wasn't a politician, what would he be?
4. Before this year, how many people popular Welsh surname 'Jenkins' have stood for election to the national assembly?
5. Which candidate had the following conversation with an irrate constituent?

X: Good afternoon
Constituent: Did you vote for that smoking ban?
X: Yes I did
Con: (angrily) Then I will never vote for you ever again!
X: Sorry to hear that.
Con: (accusingly) Youv'e been listening to Doctors haven't you?
X: Err....yes.
Con: Thought so. They told me to give up too!
X: The scientists are pretty clear too - passive smoking kills about 400 people every year in Wales.
(Constituent's husband (silent till now) joins in...
Husband: People in this Country fought in two World Wars.....
X: Sorry?
Hubby: People died for freedom
X: I don't want anyone dying
Con: Us smokers are being treated as if we are coloureds
X: (visibly flinching) Would you like a leaflet?
Con: No.

G'luck!

Come on chaps. It's not that hard, is it?

UPDATE: Never mind five minutes, it's Friday morning and I'm still waiting. You're all useless. Though I suppose I can see why you might have been just a little bit brain dead.

Labour concede Llanelli!

2007-05-04T00:47:00.000+01:00

Whispers are that Labour knew the writing was on the wall as early as this afternoon. Plaid were reluctant to make capital in case it dissuaded some of their core vote. Vaughan Roderick is reporting that Labour have now conceded it.

Start of a meltdown or just one of those we always thought would go?

I wouldn't get too carried away. Yet.

But if what we are hearing about Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Clwyd West, Delyn, Preseli, Aberconwy... if that's all true. Well, then. Squeaky bums.

Campaign killers and May the Fourthcasts

2007-05-04T00:07:00.001+01:00

This campaign has taken the political manifesto to new levels. We've seen manifestos for absolutely everything: old people, young people, North Wales, South Wales, green stuff, sports stuff... you name it. Any excuse for a photo opportunity.

The four main manifestos were, in all honesty, boring enough. The 20+ supplementary ones were a complete waste of paper. They said absolutely nothing new.

Plaid were churning out manifestos quicker than an East Asian sweatshop churns our Burberry polo shirts. But they were all to blame so I'm not going to take points off any one party in particular.

As for the rest of the campaigns, here's my assessment:

Labour: Talked a lot about what they've already done and even more about who they don't want in power after the election. They didn't talk much about what they'd still like to do if the good people of Wales were to allow them.
Defining moments: 'saving' hospitals only the government could have been in a position to put under threat; imploding after that infamous leak.
Derek says: dark clouds overhead, competing weather fronts could lead to a turbulent period ahead.

Plaid Cymru: Slicker than ever before. Unfortunately, this meant we heard a lot about free laptops, a policy which still screams election gimmick no matter how hard they try and put a socialist-redistributive spin on it. Ahead in the debate on health, undoubtedly the number one issue in this election.
Defining moments: Ieuan Wyn Jones winning over the audience in both leaders debates even though he's as easy on the ear as a four year old's first violin lesson; weathering the storm on finances in the final few days.
Derek says: if the sun doesn't break through the clouds, expect sudden showers and a stark wet wake up call.

Conservatives: Made good use of their leader David Cameron. Whether or not that will have the desired 'effect' remains to be seen. Policy-lite, but sounding conciliatory enough to do the unthinkable and team up with Plaid in a rainbow coalition.
Defining moments: free lightbulbs - whose bright idea was that?; the gay thing - may actually earn them more votes.
Derek says: mild weather will continue, with possibly a few sunny spells in the North and West.

Lib Dems: Manifesto was late. When it finally arrived it was repetitive and verging on impenetrable. Used the same old tricks on their leaflets and devoted a lot of time and effort to Ceredigion, even though they've no chance of winning it.
Defining moments: the manifesto arriving; tackling hard on Labour's controversial and extraordinarily convenient last minute health pledge.
Derek says: no earthquakes forecast here, but if they team up again with Labour they could really rain on Plaid's parade.

What do you think? Do tell. And feel free to give up on the crappy weather analogies.

Rumours, Whispers, Gossip

2007-05-03T23:02:00.000+01:00

Plonk them in the comments or an email and I shall, in turn, plonk them in here...

- Another plug from Huw Edwards. Something about blogs being written by incontinent saddos. Definition of incontinent: 'lacking in moderation or self-control, esp. of sexual desire.' Oh dear, good job my mum isn't watching.

- Plug from Huw Edwards. He obviously doesn't know what a blog is:) Thanks anyway.

- Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East!!

- Islwyn safe. Upset in 1999, not in 2007.

- Lib Dems talking up Newport East. For them to win they'd need a staggering 14.3% swing. Apparently the Tories are predicting this as a Lib Dem gain - unconfirmed at present.

- Rhodri Morgan and Sue Essex spotted outside Tesco next to Whitchurch library at 8.40 urging people to vote. Also, I'm told in M&S. Rhodri could be buying some slippers for his retirement. Last minute desperation?

- Tories talking up Newport West.

- Turnout LOW in Ynys Mon. Plaid jittery?

- Labour vote collapsed in Aberconwy but holding up in Neath/Aberavon.

- Elfyn Llwyd says Plaid close but not close enough in Clwyd West. Another 12 activists and another week of campaigning might have swung it for them, he says. Looks like a straight race between Labour and Tory.

- More postal votes have been returned in Bristol than the council actually sent out!!!

Predicitions: make them now coz postdicting is cheating

2007-05-03T22:31:00.000+01:00

It's already late. And it's just going to get later. So, I'll keep this concise. Unlike other commentators I'm not going to dilly dally and play it safe. Daran from Positif Politics wanted a mention so here it is: people are paying you for political advice and you still don't have the balls to call Llanelli!:) Humph. I'd rather have egg on my face than no eggs at all. You can't have an election without eggs (blimey, that's bollocks isn't it? Caffeine kicking in...)

Marginals:
Aberconwy: Plaid gain from Labour (though notionally a hold due to boundary changes). Sorry Dylan.
Caerphilly: Labour Hold. Ron Davies has badgered the incumbent Labour AM with all his will. But unless Caerphilly has a collective moment of madness, this seat is safe.
Cardiff North: Tory gain from Labour. Cherie and Gordon some Howe fail.
Carmarthen West: Plaid gain from Labour. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm.
Clwyd West: Tory gain form Labour. Being Christian and a little bit iffy on homosexuality didn't stop George W. Bush.
Delyn: Labour hold. Tory candidate Antoinette Sandbach goes back to being a character from a period novel.
Llanelli: Plaid gain from Labour. Helen Mary Jones buys herself a new scarf to celebrate.
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tory gain from Labour. It's a close one. Tamsin Dun-goody, but not goody enough.

Overall:
Labour 25
Plaid 15
Tories 11
Lib Dem 7
Others 2

Done. And if any of you are still chaffing in the groin area - jump off that bloody fence. NOW!

WHISPERS, GOSSIP, RUMOURS. IF YOU'RE AT A COUNT OR PARTY HQ GIVE ME A CALL OR DROP ME AN EMAIL: blamerbell@googlemail.com

Let's throw a few spanners in the works...

Blamerbell at the Beeb...

2007-05-03T20:49:00.000+01:00

So, I'm sitting here in the semi-outside with Joe Allen. There's loads of booze opposite me, which is great as it's my birthday. Problem is it's from the Pobl y Cwm set so it's probably fake.

Word in the Beeb is that turnout is variable (whoaa, revelation), but probably very high in the hyper-marginals. There were queues this morning at one polling station in Newport East, apparently. Did I say polling station? I meant family planning clinic.

Elsewhere, it seems it's a straight race between Plaid and the Tories in Aberconwy and there are whispers that Labour are already lowering the bar about what constitutes a 'defeat' tonight.

Guto Thomas has just joined us. Suddenly it smells of chips.

Don't go away tonight chaps. Still to come I've got five minute quizzes, predictions and much more anoraky madness.

Also, if you've got any gossip from counts or the inside, do get in touch. Email me: blamerbell[at]googlemail.com

Adrian Masters has just come by to tell us he has a dressing room, for the first time ever. And a bowl of fruit. He's just taken a photo of us anoraks with his mobile phone. That probably makes him geekier than us.

UPDATE: Some of you have requested a list of all the bloggers intending to live blog tonight. Joe is currently working on this and it will appear on Wales Elects shortly.

I encourage you all to get blogging tonight. If you've never blogged for, start now. Email me or post a comment to let you know what you're up to and join in the parade. It's YOUR chance to shine. Otherwise come along and post in the comments here. I figure that's the only way we're all going to stay awake.

WHISPERS: Just come back from makeup where I bumped into Lembit Opik, Elfyn Llwyd and Kevin Brennan. Lembit was the only one who hadn't heard the Lib Dems were talking up Newport East. Elfyn Llwyd says Aberconwy will be very very close. Tried to get him to call it 100% but he refused. Wanted to ask Lembit if his girlfriend's twin was free for a drink tomorrow night. Decided not to push my luck.

What have we done?

2007-05-03T14:08:00.001+01:00

This is my life: brief flirtation with football, passionate and elaborate relationship with classical music and academia, audacious attempt to learn Japanese from scratch and then finally, return home to have a bash at being a journalist and as an almost accidental consequence, a Welsh political blogger.

With the exception of those formative years with a football (I played for Merthyr schoolboys don't you know), I've only ever been involved in niche pursuits. I have shouted and screamed about their importance. But I've almost always had to concede that the majority of the population will never really understand nor share my enthusiasm.

So, when Alwyn ap Huw ponders on his blog if the internet has had an affect on this election, I'd like to think that it has. Because it's not necessarily important that people share your enthusiasm - what's important is that they acknowledge it exists and are sufficiently impressed by it. The best political correspondents seem to be irrepressibly excited about their subject. Blogging is no different. That's the only way to get people to take note.

Today, in the Welsh blogosphere, there are an awful lot of people talking about politics with great vigour. When Iain Dale compiled his list of all those who will be blogging through election night, it was dominated by people from Wales. And he'd missed about two thirds off the list!

OK, so the success of the Welsh blogosphere may be in part due to the relative weakness of our mainstream media. But who cares if the result is that people are expressing themselves in more innovative and less constrictive ways?

And it does have an influence. These blogs are not only read by journalists, politicians and ordinary chaps/chapettes right across the country, they are also the world's window on Welsh politics. And when they peer inside what they'll see, unlike some of our more powerful neighbours, is a real hubbub of activity. Unless, of course, they tune in at 4am tomorrow morning when I'm anticipating that it will just be myself and Joe holding hands in the semi-outside.

SYLWCH: Mae'r BBC wedi danfon bathodyn blogio'r etholiad yn Gymraeg (o'r diwedd). Croeso i chi eu ddefnyddio ar eich blogiau.

GYDA LLAW: Mae gen i golofn yn Golwg o wythnos nesaf ymlaen. Da ni'n chwilio am deitl bachog iddo. Cynigion yn y sylwadau os gwelch yn dda. Does dim clem gen i, ond hoffwn i ddefnyddio fy enw go iawn y tro 'ma...

What floats your vote? #2

2007-05-03T00:49:00.000+01:00

Ever since I've been interested in politics, I've wondered what it must be like to live in a marginal constituency.

Over the years, I got to know my local MP, Ted Rowlands, reasonably well. We met at various music events as his wife gave out the prizes. All I knew was that my Dad didn't like him very much. And time after time I'd watch the election results come in, and it would always be the same. 'What's the point of that?', I thought.

But two years ago in Cambridge, it got a bit more interesting. I remember thousands of people queuing in market square just to catch a glimpse of Charles Kennedy. The Guildhall was so full he came out and gave an impromptu speech. It wasn't the best, but he delivered it without falling off his soap box and the crowd gave a huge cheer.

It felt like politics mattered and that change was in the air. In the end, the Lib Dems gained the seat in what turned out to be a miserable night for Labour. (I should stress that I have a natural disinclination towards any mass-participation shouting/cheering activities and I was there purely as an interested observer.)

Now, as I push open my front door and the inevitable avalanche of Lib Dem leaflets pushes back, it seems like I'm back to square one. There's simply no chance of anyone else winning in Cardiff Central.

But this is where Wales' much-maligned electoral system comes into its own. Because on the regional list, my vote may actually make a difference.

I'm still floating, but I'm now more of an Onken mousse than a packet of Maltesers. I've narrowed the field and I'm ready to plunge my electoral spoon. (That's about as far as this metaphor can go:)

Also plunging spoons will be Rhodri Morgan, voting at 8am in a caravan, and Nick Bourne, voting at 10.30am in Cardiff South. Note that even he's not voting for himself in Mid & West Wales - and if Glyn Davies, second on that list, loses out by one or two votes he'll be fuming as he goes back to a life of driving around in a tractor with no trousers on.

So it's all to play for and my vote's still up for grabs. The other day I asked Jenny Randerson to sort out my bins. She still hasn't done it. Maybe that will cost her.

By the way, the Conservative candidate for Cardiff Central came along to Bloggers drinks the other night. If there's anything more sad than being a blogger, it's not being a blogger and going along to a blogger's party. I can't decide whether to vote for him out of sympathy or question his sanity, and therefore the legitimacy of his candidacy.

Election night, watch the blogs don't bite

2007-05-02T00:12:00.000+01:00

It'll never work. But let's have a bash anyway.

Here's the idea: I'll be sitting somewhere in the BBC with Joe Allen of Wales Elects. I'm told it's going to be semi-outside so I might wear the Doctor Who coat.

The two of us will have computers. This is bad news. It's impossible not to look like a techie geek if you're sitting in front of a computer on television. We might even be wearing glasses.

We were both probably bullied at school.

Anyway, the idea is (I think) that we live blog from within the BBC's election hub in Llandaf. This is, by the way, just about the only kind of hub the Lib Dems haven't promised in their manifesto.

But more than that, we'll be monitoring your blogs too and discussing the best of them through the night on the BBC's output in Welsh and English.

There is, of course, a very real danger that nobody will have written anything. Welsh politics is quite a small world at the best of times. And at 4 o'clock in the morning it's probably about as active as Nick Griffin's left eye.

So whether you're a politician, a crony, an observer or a pleb, get blogging on election night so that we can attempt the kind of multi-media convergence the BBC hasn't seen since Sara Edwards once accidentally answered a telephone in the newsroom. It doesn't matter how early or late you post. You don't even have to blog at all, you might simply wish to comment on what other people have written. Just give us a flavour of how you think it's all going and we'll lick it up and spit it out again.

If you want a badge to let us know you're joining in, then shove this picture on your site. Otherwise, just blog away. I'm sure it won't be hard to find you.

By the way, Scottish and even English bloggers are more than welcome to pinch this badge. Some have already done so.

Here's a framed one in case you're a noncy type.

Perhaps we could all cross-fertilize on the night itself? I'm told if Scottish people write stuff down it's just about possible to understand them:)

And on the sixth day, God made Leighton

2007-05-01T12:04:00.000+01:00

For them, politics is like a cult. They congregate around certain figures, whom they hold in great esteem. It's almost like hero-worship. If you can call a man in a suit a hero.

They are, of course, the followers - the political enforcers who will not have a word said against their man. And for some reason, don't ask me why, they tend to congregate around the right wing of the Labour party.

For England, see Blairism. For Wales, see Leightonism.

Whatever you might say about Leighton Andrews, he is first and foremost a very effective Labour assembly member for the Rhondda. He is outspoken and combative - just the type of guy the assembly needs. Perhaps followers are an inevitable consequence of strong leaders (although Mr Andrews leads nothing much yet). What's certain is that they exist, and they put themselves about.

Let's take for example, David Taylor, Mr Andrews' researcher. He has a track record to make the Labour right proud:

2003: DT registers the domain shortchange.org.uk - a vicious attack on Clare Short after she resigned her cabinet post over the Iraq war.

June - October 2004: DT writes a blog under his own name in which he calls Liberals 'stupid' and Welsh nationalists 'unashamedly racist'. Leighton Andrews tries to defend his colleague on his own blog HERE.

August 2004: DT goes off to help with the Hartlepool by-election campaign. His friend, Adrian McMennamin, is heavily involved in it. Liberal Democrat candidate Jody Dunn is the first ever candidate to use a blog to try and get through to voters. It is savaged by anonymous comments of the most personal nature. The campaign becomes so heated the police are called in to break-up a Labour placard offensive!

April 2005: DT creates the rememberredwood.com website - an election time reminder of the Tory days.

July 2005: A bitter anti-nationalist website called Natwatch is launched. DT denies being the man behind it.

2005: Is there no end to this chap's online empire? DT is also the man behind shutthebackdoor.co.uk - a campaign to stop failed constituency candidates getting elected on the regional list. We know from the early days of his blog that this was a pet hate. Anyway, the petition only gets seven signatories. Six of those are spam. Nevertheless, the latest government of Wales act means the door is now firmly shut. Success!

September 2005: DT is famously rumoured to have ejected Walter Wolfgang from the Labour party conference, shouting, "You can hear the f***ing heckling on Sky News. Shut them up, or take them out."

January 2006: DT's mobile phone number appears on the advert for a service called New Media Council, offering "hands-on strategic targeting helping hundreds of individuals and organizations in getting their message across." It is hosted anonymously in America by DomainsByProxy.com.

(In May 2006, natwatch.org is registered in the same way, as is arsembly.org in April 2007. This service is used by thousands of people who prefer to remain anonymous).

September 2006: DT sets up a website called keepingthefaith.org.uk. It's devoted to "backing Tony Blair against a minority of MPs who want to bring him down." The page was quickly hijacked by people who'd prefer to see the back of Tony Blair, the amusing archived results of which can be seen HERE.

September 2006: DT registers the domain gordonbrown.org, offers it for sale and links to articles which do not show the Chancellor in the best light.

September 2006: It's a busy month for DT. He registers the domains johnson4leader.org.uk, johnson4leader.co.uk, johnson4leader.org AND johnson4leader.com, leading to speculation about a 'plot by Blairites to undermine the Chancellor and push Alan Johnson as the next Prime Minister'.

October 2006: Wherever Leighton Andrews goes, David Taylor is not far behind. This time it's the Keep Burberry British campaign. DT did the website.

April 2007: Remember DT's rememberredwood.com? It now also hosts the official Welsh Labour election 2007 website.

DT is currently the registrant of a number of Welsh Labour websites including: leighton4rhondda.com, votehuw.com, rhondda.tv, sandymewies.com, huwlewis.co.uk and marktami.co.uk

It is, I'm sure you'll agree, a fairly impressive CV. There's evidence of a lot of graft here, and I can't imagine it's been done for no reason. These people are well-organized and ruthless. The territory, it seems, has been set. And after this election, there may just have to be a battle.

So, how long will it be, do you think, before that crucial Leighton4leader domain gets registered too?

Generous hat doffs to Tim Ireland, Dizzy and The Register.

'Pre-approved and ready to go!'

2007-05-01T00:03:00.000+01:00

A moment of excitement at the end of ITV's Wales Decides. Never mind the fact that half the audience are from a wind farm pressure group. Rhodri Morgan has let the cat out of the bag: Labour are already working with Peter Hain's Welsh Office on implementing their manifesto pledges for the 2007-11 assembly term. Peter Hain, of course, has to approve all the new assembly measures before they can become law. But right at the end of the show, Rhodri let slip that Labour's proposals are 'pre-approved and ready to go'.

That's funny, I was under the impression that political parties needed a mandate from the electorate before they could start the business of government. Can Labour really be so sure of a majority that they can begin their legislative programme before a single vote has even been cast?

Labour candidate concedes defeat, four days early

2007-04-30T16:42:00.000+01:00

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it still the official Labour line to say 'we are the only party who can form a majority government'? That's certainly what Rhodri Morgan was banging on about during the leaders debate last night. In fact, I seem to recall him saying it was 'arrogant' of Ieuan Wyn Jones to suggest otherwise.

If that is the case, why is Labour's number one candidate on the North Wales regional list predicting they will fall four seats short of a majority?

Writing for the New Statesman online, Ken Skates says: "My forecast is that Labour in Wales will not do as badly as the national polls suggest. We’ll fall to 27 (down two) whereas the Tories will gain a handful."

And it gets worse. Those who follow the party line have no choice but to predict an increase in the Labour vote, since that's the only way they could possibly claw back a majority in the Senedd. Not so Mr Skates, who says "I reckon Carl Sargeant will be the only Labour AM to increase both the size and proportion of Labour’s vote."

Ken has clearly been thinking too much about his own political fortunes. As a list candidate he stands more chance of getting elected if Labour perform poorly in the constituencies. Still, as I'm sure the party's press people would be the first to tell him: you're not supposed to admit that just four days before an election!

UPDATE: After this story somehow came to the attention of the wider Welsh political community, Labour's press people apparently got in touch with Mr Skates and he in turn asked the New Statesman to remove his comments. It's now the top story on New Statesman online.

May 2 UPDATE: This story is now in the Western Mail. Labour are accused of 'control freakery' and refuse to comment.

Four days to go and...

2007-04-30T10:48:00.000+01:00

Lib Dem leader Mike German is in Aberystwyth again. He might as well buy a second home there. That'll please Elin Jones. Still, he might need somewhere to lie low on election night. Can you really see Plaid making the same mistake twice?

Labour say it's all about partnership. Peter Hain and Rhodri Morgan are going to comb each other's hair for the press sometime this afternoon. Activists will be choking on their clear red water.

Plaid Cymru have finally persuaded some chap called Eurfyl ap Gwilym to come down from London to take the flak over their finance programme. Expect Labour and the Tories to sling the mud with venom. I fear for poor Eurfyl it's going to be like trying to volley it away with a tennis racket - much of it is going to splatter over the brave little soldier's face. And why do Plaid need to 'call in' an expert anyway? Can't any of their AMs do sums?

And the Tories have brought in a notorious vote winner to help them with the final push. Unfortunately, he wasn't available so they've got Michael Howard instead.

1540 UPDATE: Just one measly sentence on the Welsh elections in the Guardian today. "Polls in Wales suggest Labour will remain the largest party but it is struggling to maintain its majority in the assembly." One measly sentence, and even that is bollocks.

Also, further proof that it's more exciting in Scotland. The Web 2.0 generation has politicised facebook by changing profile pictures to election slogans and writing political graffiti on friends' walls. More from Luke Pollard.

Election 2007: The Debate

2007-04-30T00:00:00.000+01:00

The leaders went head to head, but only after each giving a two minute pregeth to the nation. I have no idea why politicians insist on this kind of unrestricted airtime. Someone should tell them that debate programmes are about people holding them to account and speaking their minds, not sitting captive so they can be brainwashed. Anyway, since Martin Shipton has lifted the taboo on elaborate (and subjective) ranking features, I've come up with my own:

Rhodri Morgan (Labour)

'... And that's 500,000 reasons to vote Labour.' What, in two minutes? I was jotting them down and only got to number five by the time he started freestyling. Stumped by Mike German and Ieuan Wyn Jones and heckled by the audience. Not his finest hour.

5/10

Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid)

Yap. Yap. Yap. But less so than normal. Probably the audience's favourite with two heartening rounds of applause. Nick Bourne asked him if people really wanted Plaid's policy of a seat in the United Nations, to which he replied 'of course not'. Right, so why bovva then?

7/10

Nick Bourne (Tory)

Came out fighting after a tough week. Made the Conservative case very clearly and was untroubled by all that was thrown at him. Except that bloke wearing the patch at the end, but surely everyone thought he was a bit weird?

6/10

Mike German (Lib Dem)

Won the two minute spiel and was otherwise competent. Managed to avoid sounding too cocky about the fact he'll soon be leaving such events in a ministerial car. Also won the battle of the postures. A good night, will probably celebrate with a ryvita and some half-fat cream cheese.

7/10

Secrets and lies (and cowards)

2007-04-29T00:35:00.000+01:00

The car slows down. A head pops out the window.

"You F*cking C*nt," shouts the primitive idiot at the pedestrian.

The car pulls away.

We've all seen it. We all think it's lousy and stupid, but nevertheless an unfortunate sign of our times.

Now, thanks to the exciting world of the internet, you can be a gutless thug online. The practice of writing anonymous comments to slag people off is a strange one. Because clearly there are some people out there who are as bitter as they are cowardly. What on earth could you possibly gain as a human being by attempting to smear someone's good name while sniggering from beneath the cloak of anonymity?

This week has, in many ways, been a great one for the Welsh blogosphere. Not only were blogs used to break big news stories, but they also became a major melting pot for debate. Unfortunately, there is a side effect to that culture. And when it came to the controversy over the alleged homophobic remarks made by a Conservative candidate, some people could not resist. Indeed, there are certain sites where you can, if you wish, continue to defame and deride in equal measure. These sites are almost entirely sustained by comments of this kind, many of them penned by the authors themselves.

Anonymity makes you feel powerful. Bullying can give you a real kick. And what we're seeing in certain corners of the internet is the online equivalent of the Jade Goody Big Brother saga. It's fun to feel part of the club, isn't it? Well, it's no fun if you're on the receiving end.

Personally, I have no time for slurs about the sexuality or appearance of our politicians. Their private lives should remain private unless there is an overwhelming public interest to the contrary.

Yes, Dave, I've got my zing back. Blogs have already given this election campaign a new dimension - we've certainly showed Scotland a thing or two. And I have no doubt that blogging will do (and is already doing) great things for the worlds of politics and journalism.

But it absolutely must be about opening this business up, about reaching more people and not imploding into a closed world where the best we can do is laugh about who has called who a big gay c*nt today. It might feel like a hoot if you're sitting in the car doing the shouting. But outside on the street you just end up looking like a moron.

UPDATE: Need ideas for a leisurely Sunday activity? Blamerbell suggests taking in a sock puppet show. I've only been awake an hour and already they're everywhere. Enjoy!

Don't know, don't care

2007-04-28T20:15:00.000+01:00

Perhaps it's just because Cardiff City lost at home again. Or perhaps it's because I haven't been invited to any post-election parties yet... But I'm coming clean: this election is exciting nobody except those politicians and journos whose lives depend on it. There are others who are getting into the spirit, but their interest is the political equivalent of hanging around guiltily to watch a neighbour's house burn down.

Fair play to the Western Mail, they've given this election a right old bash. But their front page today - 'Election 2007: What you say'- should really have been followed by the line, 'Couldn't give a shit'.

The paper dedicated its first five pages to election coverage, headlining their exclusive poll. But time after time, the most voluminous answer came under 'Don't know/Don't care'.

And if we are really, truly and honestly talking about the 'reaction on the doorsteps', it is the same. I've had the privilege of going out with a few canvassers and watching/producing an awful lot of vox pops and debate programmes. The overwhelming reaction is that assembly members are simply not worth their £50,000 a year.

With just a few days left until the polls, I doubt very much that the mood will change. The manifestos and policy pledges are all in place. But they simply aren't exciting enough. Who knows (or cares) who their local AM is anyway? So, if turnout is up at this election (which I expect), politicians should not interpret this as a vote of confidence in the political system. A significant proportion of those who will vote will do so grudgingly.

There has been much talk recently about Martin Shipton's low ranking of female Labour AMs, with some suggesting women don't get a fair deal in the 'Western Male'. Perhaps that's an easy way of avoiding the reality that some of our politicians simply aren't engaging with the electorate in the way Wales deserves.

So it was refreshing, this afternoon, to see Plaid Cymru's Cardiff West and Cardiff South candidates leafleting outside Ninian Park. Never mind if it was a tad opportunistic (they were having a dig at Sports Minister Alun Pugh for snubbing a recent UEFA event in Cardiff). Statistically, there can't be many votes in a football crowd, but you've got to get at people however you can in these crucial closing stages. Believe it or not, this is the first time I've seen candidates campaigning in a non-media staged event.

I'm sure all you politicians will rush to contradict me - 'we've been here and there and even all the way up the hill to Pen-y-celwydd and the doorsteps have been saying the most wonderful things'. But ordinary people know that's simply not true. And depending on the result of the election, things could get even worse. When the assembly reconvenes sometime before May 11th, it may be without some of its best performers; people like Glyn Davies, Jonathan Morgan and Helen Mary Jones. And the new blood may not include those heavyweight figures - Dafydd Wigley and Ron Davies - who could give the place the boost it so desperately needs.

Whatever happens, there will be a new intake and the assembly will have new powers (if Peter Hain permits). Hopefully, there can be a renewal both in terms of political personnel and their relationship, through the media, with the public. Because if 'Don't know/Don't care' is the prevailing attitude of 2011, the third assembly term will be as much of a failure as the previous two.

For Christ's sake, don't cock it up!

2007-04-27T10:55:00.000+01:00

The Tories are polling badly. But it’s OK. Priority marginals like Clwyd West are going well. Just make sure the candidate doesn’t say anything stupid…. Damn!

Up steps Darren 'my evangelicalism won’t effect my campaign' Millar with a couple of gems at a hustings last night.

According to the Labour party (so we only have one side of the story so far), the Conservative candidate for Clwyd West said that "creationism should be taught in Welsh science lessons" and "homosexuality is a sin".

In the interests of proper journalism, I’ve checked the manifesto. But I can’t seem to find the 'in God’s name we shall purify' section.

David Cameron, renowned for taking a hard line on the politically incorrect, will not be best pleased.

UPDATE: The Tories say the remarks about homosexuality were not Mr Millar's own and that he merely referred to texts which said that homosexuality was a sin. His comments about creationism being taught in schools were (apparently) in the context of faith schools. My understanding, however, is that faith schools are as obliged as any other to follow the national curriculum. Even the Archibishop of Canterbury is against teaching creationism in schools!

UPDATE: Some people may have mistaken this as a place where you can post anonymous comments about people's private lives. It's not. I have absolutely no time for anyone who insults/smears another person while themselves remaining comfortably anonymous. It is gutless and callous. If you'd like to email me with your name and telephone number, I'd be more than happy to discuss this personally with you:)

UPDATE: Jane Davidson has entered the row, calling Darren Millar a 'mad evangelist'.

Latest poll shows Plaid surge as Tories falter #2

2007-04-27T09:54:00.000+01:00

The Western Mail has now published its poll. And to the delight of Plaid and the dismay of almost everyone else, the results reinforce yesterday's ITV poll. Can we now call this a trend? Even if - given our idiosyncratic electoral system - the science is a bit dodgy, is there not a pattern emerging?

UPDATE: William Hill puts the Tories much closer to Plaid than the great Welsh public (or at least a contentiosuly drawn sample of them). Worth a bet?

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