It's between Labour and the Lib Dems here
Sunday, April 15, 2007

Haven't you heard? The whole of Cardiff is a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems. At least that's what they will tell you.

Laughing in the face of the actual statistics, the Lib Dems argue with some gall that 'everyone knows the Conservatives and Plaid can't win here'. Well, it's news to me, and news to Tory candidate Jonathan Morgan too I'm sure; he'll be devastated to learn he has no chance in Cardiff North despite being 6,400 votes closer to Labour than his Lib Dem counterpart.

So, how do they do it? Surely it's not an outright lie? No, even for politicians that would be going too far. Instead, the Lib Dems cheekily use council election results to calculate their graphs, making it look as if they are in second place, whereas they are actually in third. But where they genuinely lead, as in Cardiff Central, suddenly the council election results are an irrelevance and assembly election history is of primary importance.

The most staggering thing about this ploy is that it's about as convincing as a Didier Drogba 'injury'. If you're motivated enough to vote you're probably curious enough to wonder why the Lib Dems are bragging about council seats in the middle of an assembly election campaign. Why bother?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 7:50 pm,

23 Comments:

At 8:38 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The best the Lib Dems can hope to do is widen the gap between Labour and a victorious Jonathon Morgan.

 
At 9:39 pm, Blogger Deleted said...

They are apprently doing it in Swansea West too. Plaid Cymru candidate Ian Titherington blogged on it.

Particularly odd, since they could have used the General Election result in that seat.

 
At 10:56 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Typical Liberal deception and they usually claim in the next breath that they are different from others and to be trusted!

 
At 11:23 pm, Blogger bethan said...

shouldn't you give a hat tip to Ian Titherington of Plaid for writing this same blog but about Swansea a while ago on his Blog?

 
At 11:38 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"shouldn't you give a hat tip to Ian Titherington of Plaid for writing this same blog but about Swansea a while ago on his Blog?"

No.

Hat tips are for when a blogger is alerted to a specific subject and subsequently writes a complementary post on it.

I can now see the resemblance, but since it wasn't intentional I don't think I'll go about crediting other people if it's all the same to you.

I first asked a Cardiff Lib Dem candidate about these graphs in December last year. She was adamant that they weren't misleading anyone. I remain unconvinced.

 
At 11:47 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why bother? Because it works! It convinces people that it really is a two horse race and it wins them seats and so people vote tactically for them to beat the other guy. It's as simple as that.

 
At 12:03 am, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"It convinces people that it really is a two horse race and it wins them seats and so people vote tactically for them to beat the other guy. It's as simple as that."

Do you think voters are that stupid?

If people want Labour out they'll vote for second place. In Cardiff North everyone knows the Tories are a close second; it's one of the most high-profile seats of the whole campaign. That's why this seems so bizarre.

 
At 1:27 am, Blogger Damon Lord said...

Tongue in cheek: We've seen them doing this sort of thing in Cardiff Central for years. Statistics are and have been particularly used by the Liberals to 'support' any old vague argument they make.

After all, Charles Kennedy said at one point during the Iraq War that the majority of the country agreed with him. That's because although they may have settled down in the direction they take on it now, at the time they changed their tune so often that at one point they would have said something that probably everyone would have agred with.

 
At 2:24 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's almost like saying that the English Democrats are the main challenge to the Welsh Conservatives, just because they have the 2nd Highest number of candidates in South East Wales !

They'll be transferring Counties from one Country to another next !

Opps - they did !

 
At 3:54 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They'll be transferring Counties from one Country to another next !

Opps - they did !

No, not really, just returned it to its rightful place (try reading History)

 
At 4:27 am, Blogger Damon Lord said...

Just a thought: where will Mr Blamerbell Briefs be on the Big Noght of the count itself? I hope to be at a count myself. Will he be at one?

 
At 6:45 am, Blogger Praguetory said...

Blamerbell will have a lot to celebrate on May 3rd.

 
At 7:46 am, Blogger Professor Dylan Jones-Evans said...

Interesting post because Plaid Cymru have been trying to do exactly the same here in Aberconwy.

In adverts recently, they have been using their own internal poll from Beaufort as "evidence" that they are in second place to Labour nationally and saying that the "Conservatives are irrelevant."

They have also conveniently ignored the fact that Aberconwy is a completely new seat and on all their literature, have been saying that there is only 76 votes between Plaid Cymru and Denise Idris Jones and that the Conservatives are in 'a poor third'.

As your more informed readers will know, the recent Thrasher and Rawlings study put only 400 votes between the three main parties if Aberconwy had been a constituency in the last election.

Fortunately, as Blamerbell states and as we have found on the doorstep, the voters are not that stupid.

However, if Plaid Cymru are so confident of victory here (they have been saying they have had Aberconwy 'in the bag' since last summer to anyone who will listen), then why resort to such spin?

Oh well. As this is my first election, I suppose that expecting your opponents to behave 'honourably' was bit naive....

No wonder some voters on the doorstep are put off by politics and I am spending most of my time trying to get them out to vote, never mind to vote for my party.

 
At 8:27 am, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"Just a thought: where will Mr Blamerbell Briefs be on the Big Noght of the count itself? I hope to be at a count myself. Will he be at one?"

Normally, I'd be in a gutter somewhere. As Praguetory suggests - it's my birthday.

This time, though, will be different. I'll be in a gutter on May 4th instead:)

 
At 8:57 am, Blogger Praguetory said...

At least you don't deny being part of the gutter press.

 
At 9:22 am, Blogger Ian James Johnson said...

Surely using a current national opinion poll from a recognised source is a slightly different tack from using three year old results from a different type of election manipulated to make it look as if you are the main challengers?

Spare a thought for the poor residents of Penarth - that graph of Cardiff City councillors is even more meaningless to them.

 
At 1:26 pm, Blogger Welsh Spin said...

Have you never previously encountered the expression "to lie like a Lib Dem bar chart"?

Truly Ciaran you have led a sheltered life ...

 
At 5:29 pm, Blogger cymrumark said...

I almost feel sorry for poor Dylan Jones Evans...I mean fancy a political opponent pointing out your weeknesses and emphasising their strengths never heard of such a thing.

Those of us who have fought Tories for years know they often resort to far worse tactics.....

 
At 7:32 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In adverts recently, they have been using their own internal poll from Beaufort as "evidence" that they

The Bookies favour Plaid in Aberconwy as well.

 
At 9:36 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

DJE - keep the faith!

If you fight as honest and hardworking a campaign as Guto Bebb did in 2003 and 2005, you will be fine.

This was despite certain tactics - such as bogus letter writing into local papers - by opposition parties. This didn't stop Guto from gaining a far higher swing than the other parties at both contests.

Mark David Jones of Plaid Cymru may think that innuendo and spin is acceptable behaviour in politics but the vast majority of the general public do not, which is why they are staying at home during elections.

I wonder what his colleague Gareth Jones thinks of such tactics?

 
At 12:12 pm, Blogger Deleted said...

Just received a Focus newsletter this morning. For the NEATH constituency. It has 3 pictures on it, Jenny Randerson & Jenny Willott, Jenny Randerson & Jenny Willott again, and finally George W Bush & Tony Blair.

Lots of "Sheila Waye says" quotes, but unless she's a dead-ringer for any of the above, she isn't pictured :)

 
At 9:12 pm, Blogger Ian said...

When I first raised the spectre of the dodgy Lib Dem graph on my blog, I did not claim that Plaid was whiter than white. However, the Fib Dems have taken it to a new level of misleading politics.

Another example is the threat to Morriston Neurosurgery, where all the local Fib Dems are claiming that they will save the service-while neglecting to mention that 5 of their 6 AMs voted against a Plaid motion to keep it open (along with several Tories and most of Labour)!

I like to think that I would never stoop that low.

Ian Titherington

 
At 12:29 pm, Blogger Man in a Shed said...

The Lib Dems have the same thing going in Woking - but witrh various variations. They compare the same percentage of two figures - but show the absolute values in a bar chart here, and use council seats ( not votes ) here. They gained control of Woking last time despite being out voted by the Conservatives by 5% - not that any of this slows the Lib Dems down.

Based on your post and other I've see I'd say they have an underlying philosophy of deceit and wickedness.

 

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