Latest poll shows Plaid surge as Tories falter #2

The Western Mail has now published its poll. And to the delight of Plaid and the dismay of almost everyone else, the results reinforce yesterday's ITV poll. Can we now call this a trend? Even if - given our idiosyncratic electoral system - the science is a bit dodgy, is there not a pattern emerging?

UPDATE: William Hill puts the Tories much closer to Plaid than the great Welsh public (or at least a contentiosuly drawn sample of them). Worth a bet?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 9:54 am,


At 11:11 am, Blogger Marcusian said...

A man of your intellectual ability, despite being hampered by having to get a response knows this isnt a trend. You cannot scrutinise these polls with any intellectual rigour, the science isnt 'dodgy' its just not scientific full stop. Basically the polls tell us nothing about the three-ways, knife-edge seats or list seats. Isnt that the area where seats will be won and lost? I mean how does this poll offer any more understanding beyond what we already know. It basically says 'all the really safe seats wont change the hands, but the seats where is doubt or local issues we have know idea about'.

Before anyone gets on their high horse and says 'you wouldnt be saying that if Labour were doing well'...Rubbish! I am an MA student who is doing a politics related academic subject, which includes public opinion, as an academic i just do not accept that these polls can offer anything once academic scrutiny has been applied. Nothing to do with parties...

Every single person who makes a prediction on this thread or any other blogs should answer this question...

What factual and academically rigorous evidence have enabled you to predict the result? do you accept that a lack of the above evidence seriously hinders any notion of this prediction telling us anything beyond non-scientific indicators such as 'hunch' or my own personal favourite 'on the doorstep feedback'?

At 11:39 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

all i can say is that political journalists and bloggers don't like the fact Plaid seems to be doing better than the Tories

silly me i thought we lived in a
democracy where other people were allowed to have an opinion and express it

At 12:10 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Marcus, that's nonsense. Good luck with the MA and all that, but it doesn't take a genius to work out that two very different polls, conducted in very different ways and producing similar results is something to sit up and take note of.

At 12:12 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmm..did anyone see that pompous twat Douglas Hamilton [?] on Question Time last night. He nearly blew a fuse when Adam Price dared to suggest that Wales could cope with the kind of democracy that neo-con seems hell bent on inflicting on Iraq...

At 12:46 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...


Its not nonsense, two minor polls show nothing more than a bit of gossip for us lot to argue the toss over. Tell me what the poll has helped with regards predictions for seats? go o

At 1:46 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

I am an MA student"

"as an academic..."

Lol. That's funny, you pompous self-important Labour hack.

You can call yourslf an academic when you've got a PhD, a couple of refereed publications and have sat through a load of tedious presentations by your peers at conferences.

As I'm sure we all know, polls are samples of the population and little of the crucial background information about either poll has actually been revealed (which as someone who teaches methodology at uni is actually the interesting bit imo).

However, it's an interesting coincidence that two conducted in roughly the same period of time should show the same pattern of voting intentions.

...and when these 'coincidences' happen in the same direction, they become a trend.

At 2:23 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Ok, i wasnt aware of the definition of an 'academic', it is looking like i will be doing a phd in the near future (money allowing), i promise to never speak as myself as an academic again until i complete it.

So here goes "As someone who isnt an academic, but is currently completing a module looking at the how public opinion is formed and represented in a post-graduate MA program. I feel that the lack of an abundance of data, coupled with a lack of qualitative data to accompany the scant quantitive data would indicate that any predictions on the elections are not sufficiently informed by these two polls."
I just thought i would chuck a self important comment just for kicks. Ce la vie :)

Where do you teach methods? could really pick your brain on the focus groups i have to conduct for my dissertation.

At 4:59 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marcusian you should check the spelling of programme.

At 10:39 pm, Blogger Cymro said...

Just for the record on an independent website, false and defamatory allegations have been made against me on Martin Eaglestone's blog.


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