Vaughan y bwci - Vaughan the bookie

Mae Vaughan Roderick o'r BBC yn rhedeg eitem difyr dros ben ar ei flog yn yr wythnosau nesaf: betio gwleidyddol Cymraeg. Blog Vaughan yw'r unig man ym Mhrydain lle mae modd i chi osod betiau ar ganlyniadau etholaethol yr etholiad.

Dyna'r 'plug', Vaughan. Ga i swydd felly?
The BBC's Vaughan Roderick is offering odds on constituency seats for the forthcoming elections. He begins today with marginal Aberconwy. The odds are as follows:

Plaid 6-4
Con 7-4
Lab 7-4
Lib Dem 25-1

He then quotes 'expert pundit' Karl Williams, who says; "I think Plaid will take it because of the strength of their candidate and the row over Llandudno hospital. The constituency border changes have been particularly unfavourable to Labour and Denise doesn't have much of a majority even as it stands."

UPDATE: While we're plugging Vaughan we might also give him some credit for getting hold of some of the raw data that put the Tories in second place according to last week's NOP/ITV poll.

In fact, more people said they'd vote Plaid Cymru (182) than Conservative (180). But Dr Denis Balsom, acting as an election expert, made his predictions based only on how many people said they were absolutely certain to vote. I fear, however, that the damage has already been done. The UK media has gobbled up this rare poll as it was presented to them (see Iain Dale in the Telegraph today for example). As Vaughan says, Plaid have a right to feel a little aggrieved.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 10:04 am,


At 11:13 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Listen to Karl he is a bookie and bookie do not often get it wrong

At 2:00 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vaughan - 'Y Bwci-bo' dyliem ni alw fe nawr efallai?!


At 6:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Vaughan and any other South Walian 'expert' ought ot actually come up to Aberconwy.

There has been nothing seen of either Gareth Jones or Denise Idris Jones anywhere over the last few weeks.

As for the hospital issue, you would be interested to know that Plaid are losing support over this issue and Gareth Jones has been lambasted in the local press for trying to takeover the Llandudno Hospital campaign.

Not a foregone conclusion by any means...

At 7:44 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That’s true Anon .I was up North a couple of weeks back and my goodness the paper was full of Dylan Jones -Evans He must have a great PR sense as well as some good ideas -Never thought I would agree with a Tory - not having a blue rinse my self

At 2:16 pm, Anonymous Mike Wood said...

Other polling companies such as MORI also base their "headline figures" on those who say that they are certain to vote.

These have tended to be more accurate in the last couple of general elections and so it's not unreasonable for NOP to do the same for the Assemly elections.

Plaid think that their supporters are more likely to turn out to vote. That might be true of their core supporters, but doesn't necessarily apply to those floating voters who choose Plaid when asked by a pollster.

At 10:26 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If NOP (not Denis Balsom) didn't use certain to vote Labour would have had 42% of the vote.

Plaid would have been quite annoyed by that I imagine....


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