What will it take for Rhodri Morgan to quit?

He suggested he'd resign if he failed to get the budget through. Then, he changed his mind.

So, what would it take for the First Minister to stand down?

In particular, how many seats is enough on May 3rd?

The line from Labour is that they'd plod on with just 27 seats. That in itself would be a very poor result. But there's every chance they could get as few as 26 or even 25.

There are candidates waiting in the wings - notably Carwyn Jones and Jane Davidson. What will it take for them to make a move?

Welsh politics isn't scrutinised half as much as it should be. All the parties (perhaps with the exception of the Tories) have reasons to be concerned with their leaders and in most other political climates this would be front page news.

There's no doubt there are those in Cardiff Bay brandishing knives.

When, and in what circumstances, will they wield them?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 4:02 pm,

7 Comments:

At 7:41 pm, Anonymous Oli said...

From the BBC article you link to:

"First Minister Rhodri Morgan said he will only resign if opposition AMs passed a no-confidence motion in him."

Sounds painful.

 
At 8:16 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Ouch! They do say big men rise to the occasion...

 
At 12:29 am, Blogger cymrumark said...

The Tories have a problem with their leader for two reasons. 1: He messed up the potential coalition that has split their own party (in the main they kept their splits hidden which reflects well on their discipline) and 2 he asked for a leading opponent of his strategy to be kicked off the list of approved candidates. Two months on the said candidate is still on the list which reflects badly on the tory leaders judgement.

 
At 12:30 am, Blogger cymrumark said...

The Tories have a problem with their leader for two reasons. 1: He messed up the potential coalition that has split their own party (in the main they kept their splits hidden which reflects well on their discipline) and 2 he asked for a leading opponent of his strategy to be kicked off the list of approved candidates. Two months on the said candidate is still on the list which reflects badly on the tory leaders judgement.

 
At 9:31 am, Anonymous seren said...

25 is being generous... Labour is going to lose Conwy, Clwyd W, Llanelli and Cardiff N with no guarantee of a list seat as compensation (except perhaps in Mid & W Wales). Other seats are vulnerable, again with no guarantee of getting a list seat as compensation.

 
At 1:16 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"He messed up the potential coalition that has split their own party"

I guess that's where your personal politics might come in. The Tories and the Lib Dems have done a good job on the 'Wobbly' Wyn Jones line, making Plaid's response seem very defensive.

"he asked for a leading opponent of his strategy to be kicked off the list of approved candidates."

True, but I doubt it's a resigning or a dethroning issue.

"25 is being generous"

Possibly. But you never know. We shouldn't automatically expect that Plaid will do well - they didn't last time. And the Tories may well have peaked in 2003.

It's worth at least entertaining these other possibilities.

 
At 11:51 pm, Anonymous seren said...

I'm not counting chickens either, but I have been knocking on doors for the past year and, in this previously safe Labour seat, their vote is in meltdown.

Solid Labour voters, even the older generation, are just saying "never again" with Blair/Brown/Morgan for a host of reasons.

I agree the Tories have peaked because any constituency gain will mean a list loss. The Lib Dems are flat-lining. There is no fifth party, although I expect Trish Law and Marek will retain their seats.

That leaves Plaid.

Is there a credible alternative for any left-of-centre voter?

 

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