Farcembly?
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Today's twist: Labour MPs have told Rhodri to cut out his after dark soirees with Adam Price and IWJ and snuggle up to Mike German and the Lib Dems instead.
The Western Mail's Tomos Livingstone is now predicting a Rainbow coalition will rise from the ashes of the Red-Green talks, while Peter Black says everyone should get a move on.
Quite right. With more waffle than a Birdseye potato processing factory flying through the air in Cardiff Bay, little actual work has been going on. There are still no committees, for instance, so Thursdays are just used for filing fan mail and eating subsidised lunches.
Those in the Welsh political bubble think this is all just fine. These are exciting times. This is the new politics. And other such guff.
But outside, in the real world, it doesn't look quite so groundbreaking. People are simply wondering why they aren't getting on with it.
At the outset, every new twist seemed to offer endless intrigue and interest. But now, 'developments' are treading over old ground. Labour + the Lib Dems? We've been there before.
How many times, I wonder, can this cycle repeat itself before the whole thing descends into farce?
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 pm,
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Lib Dems won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Monday, June 18, 2007
A while back, I wrote a post titled Red + Green = Brown. It seems I was being more prophetic than I had intended, since it was written on the day Gordon Brown came to town. From that moment, the Red-Green deal has had a whole lot more momentum.
Why?
Well, Gordon doesn't really fancy beginning his premiership with two rogue Celtic states gnawing at his ankles. A rainbow coalition in Wales would see the Tories back in power and would give David Cameron a huge PR boost. Worse still, Labour would look like a party of opposition again.
New Labour arguably won the last two general elections on the waning momentum of their enormous first victory in 1997. Ten years ago, Tony Blair had his cake and ate it, feeding on a Britain bloated with optimism. Now, there's barely a crumb of that good will left.
Gordon Brown is going to have to rebuild. Scotland is already lost, but he can't afford to lose too much more ground. Rhodri Morgan says he spoke to the PM in waiting about the situation in Wales. I'd imagine it was the other way around. Brown probably spoke to Rhodri and told him to sort it out.
But Rhodri being Rhodri decided he'd muddy the waters by opening the door to the Lib Dems again and the media have rushed to have a merry little walk around Mike German's well-worn garden path.
There isn't much else Mike German can say other than if Plaid and Labour agree on a document, he'll go back to his party and "look again". He's still "committed" to the All-Wales Accord and has no intention of "steering that ship up onto the rocks". Hardly the words of a man with his hands on the rainbow rug, poised to pull.
And if he did pull, he might only fall flat on his arse. By that time, a Red-Green document would already have been drawn up. Much like the All-Wales Accord, it would be released to the public and, if the election results are anything to go by, it would excite more people than any Lib-Lab alternative. But much worse than that, it was the Lib Dems who were ridiculed for steering the rainbow ship up onto the rocks; they could really suffer from sinking the Red-Green ship too.
UPDATE: Something for the Lib Dems to sing and dance about at last: Britain's Got Talent winner, Pol Pot, is a former Lib Dem councillor.
Labels: Mike German, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:33 pm,
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How long has Rhodders got?
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
That's the question I was asked today. And for once I didn't chafe my precious parts sitting on that well-worn pundit's fence. Instead, I leapt tentatively into the 'He'll be gone by autumn' camp.
Predictions are usually wrong in Welsh politics and there are plenty of twists and turns yet. But you'd have to say that, on current form, the rainbowistas look set to make a move, perhaps before the summer's out.
Quite simply, Ieuan Wyn Jones wants it too much. Tactically, it might be better to keep the Labour option open as long as possible to at least make it look like the rainbow was forced to make a move. But at the moment, IWJ's poker face is about as convincing as a Didier Drogba dive.
If it were to go ahead, though, I think one of the biggest changes might be in 'foreign affairs'. I know that isn't exactly part of the assembly's remit, but with a nationalist first minister in Scotland and a sympathetic ear in Northern Ireland, the rainbow would look to put pressure on Westminster as part of an alliance with the other devolved institutions.
This could be anything from stating a view on foreign policy (remember Rhodri's refusal to have a view on Iraq?) to demanding greater representation in negotiations with the European Union. I had a chat with Plaid's Adam Price MP about this yesterday before a programme on Radio Scotland, and he suggested the Celtic clout of the devolved governments would look to work as a pincer movement on Westminster to secure, for example, a better financial settlement.
Alex Salmond has already made calls for the resumption of Joint Ministerial Committees between the devolved institutions, and also 'Council of the Isles' style meetings (including the Republic of Ireland), with the UK government.
Of course, these may go ahead whether Rhodri stays or not, but I imagine a Plaid-led government would be anxious to sign-up and secure added legitimacy for the assembly as a national institution in its own right.
********************************************
The latest offering from the sparingly-used poll tool:
***************************************************
UPDATE: Impeccable timing as ever.
Vaughan Roderick reports that Plaid are set to agree to further talks on a deal with Labour in their meeting this evening.
Labour have apparently offered at least three cabinet positions and firm promises on a referendum on further powers, a commission to review the Barnett formula and a Welsh Language act.
To be updated...
Sources in Plaid say it'll have to be an offer they can't refuse. Could Brown sanction the passage of a referendum through the Houses of Parliament? After all, he can't be keen on the idea of starting his premiership with Labour in opposition in both Scotland and Wales.
Either that, or Ieuan Wyn Jones has finally got control of his poker face. This might just be the smokescreen that enables him to say Labour can't deliver.
Labels: Joint Ministerial Committees, Labour, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 4:00 pm,
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Wee bits and bobs
Monday, June 11, 2007
I'll be taking part in a live debate over on BBC Radio Scotland this evening (10pm) about the future of devolution.
The new Scottish government, led by Alex Salmond, isn't too pleased that Tony Blair apparently struck a deal which could lead to the Lockerbie bomber being sent back to Libya to complete his prison sentence without informing it.
Meanwhile, the Secretary of State and the First Minister in Wales are on such good terms that Rhodri Morgan is backing Harriet Harman for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour party.
You can listen to the programme, Scotland at Ten, online this evening.
I am also booked to pop up again on tomorrow's AM/PM on BBC 2 Wales - better than Big Brother every time:)
In other news, Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones has torn up Labour's olive branch, ground it into sawdust, shoved it in his mouth and sprayed it all over Rhodri Morgan's surprised face shouting "Boo hoo to you, Sir!"
He still fancies forming his own government, you see.
Labels: Colin MacKay, Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Radio Scotland, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan, Scotland at ten
posted by Blamerbell @ 7:25 pm,
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Red + Green = Brown
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Hardly the most inspiring colour, is it?
And yet, whether Wales is a car or an aeroplane, there seems to be mileage in the red-green Plaid-Labour idea again. Adam Price is all for it. And Edwina Hart used her first interview since the twentieth century to put her weight behind it too.
(Quite how any assembly member has managed to dodge the Welsh press for so long is a complete mystery. After all, there are only sixty of them. There should probably be a Dragon's Eye rota, just to even it out. At least that would give Helen Mary Jones some well-earned time off to go scarf shopping.)
Plaid and Labour in a grand coalition? Lefties everywhere are getting erect nipples just thinking about it.
But they haven't had to face Ieuan Wyn Jones. Does this man really fancy playing second fiddle to Rhodri's 'same-old' septet?
No.
He'd quite like to captain the ship himself. That's why the opposition are already behaving like a government in waiting in Cardiff Bay, with joint strategies and chummy tell-all telephone conversations between the leaders.
Adam Price is evidently doing everything he can to make a deal with Labour more palatable. After all, his father was a miner don't you know.
For all it matters, Ieuan Wyn Jones' father might as well have been Aneurin Bevan. He's still pushing for the rainbow.
Six weeks, then, to make or break a government. And at the end of it, most of the parties in Wales could be faced with seismic splits.
Labour is set for an internal battle whether it teams up with Plaid Cymru or not. And if Plaid go with Labour, Ieuan Wyn Jones' position would look very shaky. But then again, a deal with the Tories would cause a massive rupture with the left of the party. Meanwhile, Mike German and Nick Bourne really need to deliver the rainbow coalition to be sure of their jobs.
My prediction: I'll go out on a limb and say that three of the parties will have different leaders by the next assembly election. Within the next few months there'll be some sort of deal between the parties. And that means losers as well as winners.
Labels: coalition, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labout, Plaid Cymru, politics, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:03 am,
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What is Wales?
Thursday, June 07, 2007
A little known fact about the new Government of Wales Act is that there is now provision for a minister, outside the cabinet, with responsibility for metaphors.
So far, the theme has been transport.
"We have got a new car," said Rhodri after the election. "We are certainly not going to leave it in the garage."
Then, this week...
"Wales is an aircraft, and I am its pilot," Rhodri told the Queen.
"Can you ask the trolley lady to bring me a little something," said Dafydd El.
Still to come, Wales is a boat, a bicycle and a blimp.
After that, we'll be moving on to vegetables.
Labels: Government of Wales Act, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 10:13 am,
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Rhodri's letters
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Here's what Rhodri Morgan is offering Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems in exchange for keeping him in power. Compare and contrast...
**********************************************
Dear Ieuan,
How about some of this?
1. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determins the way the Assembly is funded.
2. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.
3. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.
4. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.
5. a joint group to be set up involving Plaid Cymru and Labour members in the assembly and Westminster to assess the pre-conditions suitable for a referendum to be triggered on Scottish-style powers and to advise on the preparations which would need to be put in place prior to a referendum being called.
6. regular meetings between the First Minister and the leader of the opposition e.g on a weekly basis.
Tories r evil 4 eva.
Rhodri. xxx
**********************************************
Dear Mike,
Fancy a ride on my aeroplane? Here's what's on board:
1. an opportunity to work with government ministers on bidding for the powers to legislate on the Welsh Language and affordable housing.
2. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a
Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determines the way the Assembly is funded.
3. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.
4. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.
5. to set up a cross-party team to explore and report upon the practical experience of introducing proportional representation (the single transferable vote system) in local government in Scotland.
6. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.
Let's do it. Yeah. Groovy.
Rhodders. X
**********************************************
So, Rhodri's taken the sting out of the health issue by giving in on hospital reconfiguration, for the time being.
But how come the Lib Dems get offered deals on the Welsh language and housing and not Plaid?
Looks like Rhodri's trying to become the prism which splits the rainbow.
The opposition parties could, of course, do most of this themselves with Labour in opposition. But without taking power "willy nilly", will they be given the opportunity to get worked up enough to justify a vote of no confidence?
**********************************************
Plaid's Adam Price MP is blogging again. Today he sets out his conditions for a deal with Labour, which he says is preferable to an arrangement with the Tories. These include a formal coalition with Plaid AMs in the cabinet, a joint programme for government and a referendum on full law-making powers within four years.
Labels: coalition, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 5:07 pm,
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Reasons to disagree on first day back at the office
Rhodri Morgan today unveils
So committed is he to this cause, he failed to take part in a televised debate with the leaders of the other parties to explain to the people of Wales what this might actually mean in practice.
If the intention was damage limitation, the effect was quite the opposite; the other leaders spent almost the entire programme reminding viewers of the first minister's absence.
Never mind, Carwyn Jones was deputising and, as ever, sounded like someone from a self-help tape. He managed to tell those agitated nurses to bugger off in really the most relaxing way.
Anyway, the point that the would-be rainbow coup leaders made repeatedly was that the assembly is today being presented with a legislative programme, and yet there was no consultation with the other parties in advance. Labour seem to be saying take it or leave it.
Mike German got as close as possible to facial expression number 3: visibly annoyed. And the others didn't seem too happy either.
I gather the front page (or thereabouts) of the Western Mail will report Ieuan Wyn Jones saying the government has six weeks to deliver or face being kicked out by him and his triple alliance lieutenants. He denied that on television. Apparently he said there would be a 50:50 chance of a
As I said right back when the Lib Dems finally got their knickers out of Alex Carlile's twist, people will expect the rainbow to move quickly if it is to move at all.
The six weeks figure is a calculated move from Plaid to give Rhodri the spooks. It's playing politics again. But this game is getting a little tiring, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any disagreement today.
Labour are expected to put forward the same bunch of policies they previewed so enthusiastically during the election campaign. For the other parties, there's not much to get worked up about except, perhaps, the issue of the Welsh language.
If Labour go with the legislation they proposed back in April, they will set in motion the process of appointing a Dyfarnydd, falling well short of the new Welsh Language Act demanded by the opposition parties and a number of lobbying organisations. Carwyn Jones tried to prepare the ground for this last week. But it went down as well as a vomit smoothie.
This could well be the first sticking point for the new consensus-building regime. And if there's no agreement - what then? Do the Tories topple Labour because there aren't enough rights for the Welsh language? Or can a government only be brought down over something a bit more life and death?
All the signs are that there'll be a lot of huffing and puffing in the next few weeks, but not much blowing the house down.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, legislation, Mike German, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:34 am,
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Time to talk
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
It's 'don't turn up' Tuesday.
First of all, Plaid AMs Leanne Wood and Bethan Jenkins will give the Queen's official opening of the assembly a miss, then Rhodri Morgan will be the only party leader absent from a Week in Week Out special examining what the hell is going on at the top of Welsh government.
Fresh from gaining Wales' first super-ministry, Carwyn Jones will deputise. A sign of things to come, perhaps? Nevertheless, the first minister's absence does rather undermine the point of the programme.
We want answers, and only Rhodri Morgan truly knows what
What are the bottom line issues? And even then, can the government do anything to save its back?
The reality is, surely, that the opposition parties can keep upping the anti. If Labour put all their eggs in one basket, the rainbow partners can just crack them in their face. Labour may offer concessions over hospital reconfiguration, for example, but if they don't go as far as Ieuan Wyn Jones and his buddies demand, then they could have the rug pulled from beneath them at any time.
Personally, I can't see consensus politics going beyond agreeing that this afternoon's champagne is indeed a very good vintage.
Which brings me back to those dungaree-clad social workers, as some of you have so crassly described them in the comments to what was an otherwise quite interesting debate.
And that is surely the point. We had a debate.
Whether or not you agree with Bethan and Leanne, it is vital that we have the argument about the role of the monarchy from time to time. Unfortunately, there is almost no space for the type of views held by these two politicians in the mainstream media, despite the fact that they are shared by a sizable proportion of the population.
Do we elect our leaders or does the Queen appoint them? Are we subjects or citizens? Who decides whether or not we go to war? And is the Queen really the best person to open our assembly?
These are all questions of fundamental importance. They deserve to be discussed. Regrettably, opportunities to do so are all too rare.
Labels: abolition of monarchy, Bethan Jenkins, Leanne Wood, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:43 am,
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M4 Ministers
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Much has been made of Rhodri's so-called 'Glamorganshire Cabinet' (see below for Mumph's take on it). It is certainly odd that the only people deemed to have any ministerial talent hark from a narrow corridor in South Wales.
This plays right into the hands of Ieuan Wyn Jones, of course. He still wants to form an all-Wales government, albeit one with barely a constituency seat to show for itself in and around the capital.
But as far as valleys dwellers are concerned, the man is from a different planet. He may bang on about supporting the Newport Gwent Dragons, but most people in these parts put on 888 even when he's speaking in English.
And so, if and when a rainbow coalition makes its move, they'll have the very opposite problem. How can a bunch of North and West Walian nationalists propped up by dickie bow wearing Tories possibly earn the trust of South Wales' industrial heartlands?
Answer: the gang of four won't just have to get behind a rainbow coalition if that's what their party decides - they'll have to be its chief cheerleaders. This will be (a) hilarious and (b) very unlikely. I can't see Helen Mary Jones polishing off her pom poms to extoll the virtues of Toryism just yet.
At the moment, the assembly seems to be split along regional lines, with Labour ruling from the centre and the fringes poised to give the capital a kick up the backside. I think it's true to say, therefore, that if there were such a thing as a a genuine all-Wales agreement it would have to involve a Plaid-Labour pact rather than a rainbow coalition deal. Glamorganshire sausages with some country spice, if you like.
The problem is Rhodri's M4 cabinet doesn't appear to feature in Ieuan's roadmap to power. For the time being, at least, all roads lead to Anglesey.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Labour cabinet
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:47 am,
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Plotters snubbed as Rhodri sticks to familiar faces
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Rhodri Morgan's new cabinet:
First Minister: Rhodri Morgan
Minister for Health and Social Services: Edwina Hart
Minister for Education, Culture and the Welsh Language: Carwyn Jones
Minister for the Economy and Transport: Dr Brian Gibbons
Minister for Sustainability and Rural Development: Jane Davidson
Minister for Social Justice and Public Service Delivery: Andrew Davies
Minister for Budget and Business: Jane Hutt
In addition to the seven Cabinet posts above, the First Minister has appointed Carl Sargeant as Chief Whip and Deputy Business Minister. He will attend all Cabinet meetings. The First Minister will also announce the appointment of new Deputy Ministers shortly.
To be updated...
So, here it is at last. The cabinet which will govern Wales for at least the next fortnight.
Despite earning a reputation as an absolutely gafftastic First Minister, Rhodri Morgan ain't stupid. He's identitified three issues which might cause a flare up between the government and the opposition (thus precipitating a vote of no confidence and a rainbow coalition coup) and put Plaid's best friends in charge of each.
Edwina Hart takes control of health to try and weather the storm over hospital reconfiguration, Jane Hutt will have to negotiate the budget (if indeed we get that far) and Carwyn Jones gets a new super ministry to try and ease fears over education and the Welsh language.
All the signs are, therefore, that Rhodri will make it as difficult as he absolutely can for Ieuan Wyn Jones to overthrow his government. That's why he's left the more hostile Leighton Andrews and Huw Lewis out in the cold (though they may still get Deputy Ministerial posts).
But it's a big risk. If the nationalist wing of the Labour party can't deliver the sort of consensus politics which will keep them in power, the unionist camp would be perfectly placed to take the reins and give the rainbow a damn good kicking from the opposition benches.
This is Rhodri's last throw of the dice. But I'm not convinced Ieuan Wyn Jones is willing to miss his turn. Putting Plaid-friendly faces in the key posts is one thing - keeping them there is going to be almost impossible.
UPDATE:
Reaction from Plaid (Rhodri Glyn Thomas): "Rhodri Morgan’s latest cabinet has no change of personnel and therefore there has to be a change of policy and a new sense of urgency if this government is going to make a real difference to lives across Wales.
"We have here the same old tired faces; it is unlikely this cabinet will contain renewed ambition for Wales to go with the new powers of the Assembly."
Reaction from the Conservatives (Nick Bourne): "This has all the hallmarks of the same old Labour pantomime with the same old cast, and the same old lines we've heard for the last eight years.
"This is the cabinet of Labour's Glamorgan mafia. There is no-one west of Swansea, east of Cardiff or north of Pontypridd. So much for governing for the whole of Wales."
Reaction from the Lib Dems: "Umm, who, what, where? Why isn't Mike German in it?"
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Labour cabinet
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:30 pm,
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Who'll be in the Labour government cabinet?
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
When Rhodri Morgan announces his cabinet tomorrow, Labour will be left with as many or fewer rank and file assembly members than any of the other political parties except for Trish Law and the six independents formerly known as the Lib Dems.
Quite simply, Labour's twelve backbenchers (I'm not counting the DPO) are going to be stretched. From now on, the assembly isn't a glorified council chamber, it's a would-be government. That means more responsibility for ministers and non-ministers alike.
Tomorrow, Rhodri will form a government of all the talents. And after he's done that, he'll make up the numbers to fill the remaining posts.
I'm not going to go through them one by one, because frankly the Welsh cabinet is much of a muchness with a few notable exceptions. The key questions are:
(1) What will he do with health?
Easy. He sends Brian Gibbons back to Sesame Street and puts a big name in to try and sort it out. This chalice won't just be filled with poison, it will be brimming with all the shit Plaid and the Tories can squeeze into it in an attempt to engineer some 'no confidence' in advance of a rainbow coalition coup. With hospital reconfiguration top of the agenda, this requires careful handling, so expect it to go to
(2) How to deal with the plotters from the valleys?
Hug them close and strangle them with one of Helen Mary Jones' scarves. Huw Lewis for Social Justice Minister and Leighton Andrews for Deputy Somethingorother.
(3) Who will be the token North Walian?
Decided by a Big Brother style contest. Lock them all in a committee room with basic supplies and rolling footage of the Urdd Eisteddfod. See who starts dancing first and give him or her the Culture portfolio. In the meantime, maybe we could help him out with another quick opinion poll:
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, opinion poll, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Labour cabinet
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:53 am,
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Wish you were there?
Monday, May 28, 2007
Whoppee! It's the Whistun break and our hard-working politicians are enjoying a week in the sun. All except those who've decided to holiday in Wales, that is.So what's the state of the nation? Well, it's a complete and utter shambles. Good job, bring on the Pina Coladas.
On Friday, Rhodri Morgan became first minister of a minority Labour administration. On Saturday, the Lib Dems voted to pursue a rainbow coalition with Plaid and the Tories which would necessitate his removal.
The ball is now very much in Plaid's court. But rather than smash it down the line for a winner, Ieuan Wyn Jones is hanging on to it for a game of keepie uppies.
The noises coming from the Plaid camp are that they now have time to discuss the rainbow option in earnest. I was on a panel with Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other day and he suggested they wouldn't necessarily need to make a move before the summer. Speaking on yesterday's Maniffesto programme, Ieuan Wyn Jones implied that the party's national council wouldn't even be discussing the proposals until July.
In the meantime, Rhodri Morgan will announce a cabinet and get on with the job. But he is a first minister on probation in charge of a government in paralysis. Plaid should beware, however. The longer he's in charge, the more difficult it will be to remove him.
Mathematically and constitutionally, Plaid can take as long as they like. But realistically, they will need a bloody good reason. We're not used to putsch politics here in Wales. Coups are for chickens, not for Cardiff Bay.
It may be possible for the opposition parties to engineer disquiet over hospital reconfiguration or the budget which would prompt a vote of no confidence. But they would be taking power in very different circumstances then compared to now.
At the moment, the election still isn't too far gone. A cabinet hasn't been named and the machinery of administration is still in cold storage. Moreover, the rainbow is still widely seen as an alternative to Labour rather than a calculated plot to oust the government. People may not look upon the idea so favourably in a few months time.
But while the Lib Dems and the Tories have now played their hand, let's not forget that Plaid have emerged strengthened. For the next couple of weeks, at least, they have the threat of the rainbow to keep Labour on its toes. A red-green deal is not out of the question.
And yet there's still that glint in Ieuan Wyn Jones' eyes which suggests he's keen to govern. If that's so, there's nothing to stop him moving fast. Otherwise, there's every danger the assembly will be a national joke by the time he finally makes his move. This comedy of errors has gone on quite long enough.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:32 am,
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Happy Birthday Ieuan
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
"It's just what I've always wanted. Thanks Dafydd."
"No problem," said Mr Wigley. "It's a lovely Welsh frame, though that photo of me is quite old now. I'll even sign it if you want, Ieuan."
"That won't be necessary, Dafydd.
"And what's this Helen - a scarf?"
Today, Ieuan Wyn Jones celebrates his birthday. It looks set to be one he'll never forget.
At 3pm, Plaid have their group meeting. They'll be discussing the document that looks set to make him First Minister.
This morning, I had a chat with Nick Bourne - Deputy First Minister elect. He was in good spirits. Mike German will have to settle for Assistant Deputy First Minister or Deputy Deputy First Minister. Whichever makes him sound less desperate:)
But he will, at least, have something to sell to his members at the Lib Dems' special conference on Saturday. While Peter Black remains "fundamentally opposed" to any kind of coalition, Mike German will be on the verge of delivering the closest thing the party has to a raison d'etre - PR in local government. They may have to settle for local referendums on the issue rather than seeing it rolled out with immediate effect, but at least it's something to shout about.
Labour AMs were in scarce supply today. Their world has been turned upside down. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems (all six of them) were still frantically negotiating and the Tories were practising their swagger.
Plaid are now in a huddle, but they are unlikely to spring any birthday surprises on Ieuan Wyn Jones. Rhodri, meanwhile, is having his cake and eating it.
UPDATE: Face to face talks between Plaid Cymru and Labour. It would have to be an absolutely incredible deal. Even then it's doubtful whether Labour's assembly members would sanction it. After all, when Rhodri is gone, they'll have to live with the consequences.
UPDATE: BBC are reporting that the triple alliance document has been sent to civil servants to take a look at. Are the Plaid-Labour talks an elaborate bluff? If Plaid go ahead with a rainbow coalition, they'll want to make it look like the last resort. That seems to be what they're engineering at the moment.
UPDATE: First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones. You'd better start getting used to the sound of that. Plaid have suspended talks with Labour.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Nick Bourne, Plaid Cymru, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:45 pm,
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When a defeat feels like a defeat
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Remember back before the election, when Rhodri Morgan said he'd "leave the stage" if he thought Labour had suffered a defeat? Then, like spoons to a chocolate fudge cake in fat camp, we all leapt in with wild estimations about what that might constitute.Most people settled on 24 seats. Yeah, that would be a bad enough result all right.
But.
He didn't say anything about number of seats.
Instead, what he talked about was translating votes into a Labour government: "If they want Labour to continue, then Labour voters have got to come out and vote Labour - that's the key message."
So, could it still be a 'defeat' if the other three parties come together to form a rainbow coalition?
Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can't persuade one of the other parties to join a formal coalition?
Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can only secure 'general support' and not the 'confidence and supply' arrangement which would put the government in a more secure position?
Who knows (apart from Rhodri), 26 seats could be a 'defeat' after all...
Labels: coalition, defeat, National Assembly for Wales, Rainbow Coalition, resign, resignation, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 9:49 pm,
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As stable as a unicyclist with a flat tyre
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
At the moment, all the talk coming from the leaders of the four parties is about securing a stable government.But, let's be frank. It ain't going to happen.
Take the prospect of a Lab-Lib pact. Rhodri says it's an 'inedible' choice. Great start - like telling your date she's a minger before you've even got to the main course. Meanwhile, a 'senior Labour source' says, "we should try to do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. Our philosophy towards them should be, ‘hug them close and strangle them slowly’." There is something very disturbing about that philosophy, and it does not bode well for a future stable government.
Take the prospect of a Plaid-Labour pact. Rhodri says it's an 'unpalatable' choice. But is it really? Incest or perhaps even watching golf are unpalatable choices. Rhodri is simply talking about forming a responsible government for Wales.
Never mind, Plaid Cymru would prefer to sacrifice their best ever chance of power, with Ieuan Wyn Jones as first minister in a rainbow coalition, because they aren't confident enough they could make a difference.
You know what they always say about Iraq - there was no exit strategy. Well, you could say the same about this election. The biggest lie of all was that 'the people of Wales will decide the composition of the next assembly government', spouted by politicians from all directions. That's simply not true. Some people voted Plaid on the understanding they'd stay in opposition, others on the presumption they'd work with Labour and others on the offchance they'd team up with the Tories. Despite constant pushing from the media, it was never clear where their preference lay. They certainly didn't say they'd prefer to stay in opposition, which is what Deputy Leader Rhodri Glyn Thomas has said today.
So, in the end, the politicians will decide the composition of the next assembly government. And the people might not be best pleased.
UPDATE: May I welcome readers from The Times. I must warn you, though, that there's rather a lot of talk about Welsh stuff here. We're the country to the left of Shrewsbury - adopted homeland of your next Deputy Prime Minister:)
Labels: coalition, National Assembly for Wales, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:52 pm,
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'Pre-approved and ready to go!'
Tuesday, May 01, 2007
A moment of excitement at the end of ITV's Wales Decides. Never mind the fact that half the audience are from a wind farm pressure group. Rhodri Morgan has let the cat out of the bag: Labour are already working with Peter Hain's Welsh Office on implementing their manifesto pledges for the 2007-11 assembly term. Peter Hain, of course, has to approve all the new assembly measures before they can become law. But right at the end of the show, Rhodri let slip that Labour's proposals are 'pre-approved and ready to go'.
That's funny, I was under the impression that political parties needed a mandate from the electorate before they could start the business of government. Can Labour really be so sure of a majority that they can begin their legislative programme before a single vote has even been cast?
Labels: Assembly Measure, Peter Hain, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Labour
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:03 am,
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Four days to go and...
Monday, April 30, 2007
Lib Dem leader Mike German is in Aberystwyth again. He might as well buy a second home there. That'll please Elin Jones. Still, he might need somewhere to lie low on election night. Can you really see Plaid making the same mistake twice?
Labour say it's all about partnership. Peter Hain and Rhodri Morgan are going to comb each other's hair for the press sometime this afternoon. Activists will be choking on their clear red water.
Plaid Cymru have finally persuaded some chap called Eurfyl ap Gwilym to come down from London to take the flak over their finance programme. Expect Labour and the Tories to sling the mud with venom. I fear for poor Eurfyl it's going to be like trying to volley it away with a tennis racket - much of it is going to splatter over the brave little soldier's face. And why do Plaid need to 'call in' an expert anyway? Can't any of their AMs do sums?
And the Tories have brought in a notorious vote winner to help them with the final push. Unfortunately, he wasn't available so they've got Michael Howard instead.
1540 UPDATE: Just one measly sentence on the Welsh elections in the Guardian today. "Polls in Wales suggest Labour will remain the largest party but it is struggling to maintain its majority in the assembly." One measly sentence, and even that is bollocks.
Also, further proof that it's more exciting in Scotland. The Web 2.0 generation has politicised facebook by changing profile pictures to election slogans and writing political graffiti on friends' walls. More from Luke Pollard.
Labels: Elin Jones, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Peter Hain, Plaid Cymru, Rhodri Morgan, Tories, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 10:48 am,
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Election 2007: The Debate
The leaders went head to head, but only after each giving a two minute pregeth to the nation. I have no idea why politicians insist on this kind of unrestricted airtime. Someone should tell them that debate programmes are about people holding them to account and speaking their minds, not sitting captive so they can be brainwashed. Anyway, since Martin Shipton has lifted the taboo on elaborate (and subjective) ranking features, I've come up with my own:
Rhodri Morgan (Labour)'... And that's 500,000 reasons to vote Labour.' What, in two minutes? I was jotting them down and only got to number five by the time he started freestyling. Stumped by Mike German and Ieuan Wyn Jones and heckled by the audience. Not his finest hour.
5/10
Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid)Yap. Yap. Yap. But less so than normal. Probably the audience's favourite with two heartening rounds of applause. Nick Bourne asked him if people really wanted Plaid's policy of a seat in the United Nations, to which he replied 'of course not'. Right, so why bovva then?
7/10
Nick Bourne (Tory)Came out fighting after a tough week. Made the Conservative case very clearly and was untroubled by all that was thrown at him. Except that bloke wearing the patch at the end, but surely everyone thought he was a bit weird?
6/10
Mike German (Lib Dem)Won the two minute spiel and was otherwise competent. Managed to avoid sounding too cocky about the fact he'll soon be leaving such events in a ministerial car. Also won the battle of the postures. A good night, will probably celebrate with a ryvita and some half-fat cream cheese.
7/10
Labels: Assembly Election 2007, BBC Wales, debate, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Mike German, Nick Bourne, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:00 am,
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Top 5 campaign car crashes
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
It's election time, so politicians everywhere are creeping out of their hovels and stepping into dodgy tracksuits, bin bags, go-karts... anything to get a picture in the local rag. But some moments have just been plain bizarre, and there's still over two weeks to go!1. Rhodri Morgan's 'ironic' train journey on the day South Wales' trains ground to a halt. Cue headlines: First Minister running out of steam etc.
2. Rhodri on yet another mode of transport. This time it's a boat. He's donned his life jacket and is off out on a little jolly with Tony Blair. Cue headlines: Labour's sinking ship, Labour in need of a lifeline etc. Worse still, Rhodders and Tony get off the boat and embark on a steep uphill struggle back to base. They might as well just write their own scripts.
3. Dafydd Wigley squeezes into a shellsuit for the first time since 1983. This is to make old people feel better about exercising. But it just makes them feel better about not exercising in the same place as Dafydd Wigley.
4. Labour's manifesto launch is a treasure hunt for kids in oversized t-shirts. More than a week later and nobody's told Lib Dem leader Mike German that the competition is over.
5. Plaid's Adam Price MP and Labour's Arfon candidate Martin Eaglestone have a very public tiff in a North Wales car park. 'Sign my contract'. 'No, you sign my contract'. 'I asked first'. 'He wot smelt it dealt it' etc. They are suddenly interrupted when an electronic wheelchair pulls up and gets stuck into the action. Eaglestone then becomes embroiled in a Ricky Gervaisesque exchange with a very stubborn Plaid supporting disabled person. There is no exit strategy.
I apologise for the lack of balance in this item. Labour win the innovative press call hands down so it's inevitable a few will go a bit wonky.
Labels: car crash tv, Dafydd Wigley, Martin Eaglestone, Mike German, Rhodri Morgan, Tony Blair, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:02 am,
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