Should David Melding be reaching for his P45?

A strong Conservative performance in May's Assembly election could spell the end of David Melding's political career.

I've had the Excel spreadsheets out again and it seems that if the Tories gain Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan, Melding's days are numbered - he's relying on occupying the top berth in the South Wales Central regional list in order to get elected.

But even if the Tories gain only Cardiff North, the best dressed man in the Assembly could be making for the exit if the Lib Dems put in a slightly improved performance in the regional vote.

Intriguingly, a strong Tory performance could most benefit Plaid Cymru. Presuming the Conservatives take the Vale and Cardiff North and then calculating the distribution of regional seats using average votes won in 1999 and 2003, Plaid would win three of the four regional seats in South Wales Central.

These figures may be distorted, however, by Plaid's abnormally good performance in 1999. Using only the 2003 figures in this scenario would see Plaid win two and Labour and the Lib Dems win one top-up seat each.

Either way, the Tories are likely to cancel out every seat they win in the South Wales Central region. And this must give encouragement to Labour, who could pinch a regional seat here and in Mid & West Wales, thereby putting a gloss on what is likely to be an otherwise drab performance.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 7:50 am,

13 Comments:

At 2:29 pm, Anonymous seren said...

Psephology is like crack cocaine - you'd like to give it up, but it's addictive. Walk away now Blam before it's too late.
The Tories have plateau-ed throughout Wales - any constituency seat means losing a list seat. How sad, never mind.

 
At 7:42 pm, Blogger Martin Eaglestone said...

I think it is valid speculation and, as the voters cast their two votes, several current non-headline stories could emerge.

For example if Plaid want Wigley back but from 2nd on the North Wales list then they must, in my view, loose a constituency. They can't gain Conwy - as they currently claim -and have 2 list seats - as someone speculated :
"Vote Eaglestone-Get Wigely"

 
At 8:32 pm, Blogger Welsh Spin said...

"Using only the 2003 figures in this scenario would see Plaid win two and Labour and the Lib Dems win one top-up seat each."

The problem with this is that assuming a uniform swing in Vale were replicated across the whole region then Labour's list vote would be correspondingly depressed. They stand precious little chance of winning a list seat anywhere other than mid & west.

Speculation about list seats is psephological masurbation - bring it on ...

 
At 10:15 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"The problem with this is that assuming a uniform swing in Vale were replicated across the whole region then Labour's list vote would be correspondingly depressed."

You're right, of course. So far, I've only been speculating using previous vote counts, not fabricated ones.

Plaid will be pleased to hear that they would be well placed to take three regional seats in such a situation.

However, Labour's vote has been pretty robust in this region in the past and so I certainly won't be ruling them out of pinching the top-up seat.

As for Wigley and North Wales - that debate is still to come, if Martin can bear to wait:)

There's still a good three months of bloggage until the elections and I'm afriad, Seren, that I'm not done with the psephology yet.

 
At 10:53 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They can't gain Conwy - as they currently claim -and have 2 list seats - as someone speculated :
"Vote Eaglestone-Get Wigely"

Vote for me and this other more popular bloke in another party gets elected!

wot a knob

 
At 11:09 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

"Plaid will be pleased to hear that they would be well placed to take three regional seats in such a situation."

I'd like to think that the parties have enough people between them to work out the different possibile outcomes....

btw is that really the slogan you're going to be selling to people in Arfon, Martin?

 
At 9:42 am, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"I'd like to think that the parties have enough people between them to work out the different possibile outcomes...."

And they'll be presenting them to us clearly and honestly will they?

scoff:)

 
At 11:05 am, Anonymous Bangor chicken said...

Eaglestone, i like Wigley i really do but if that means letting in a new Labour selfserving, NHS ruining, warmonger who is in politics in order to gain power for powers sake, i think i will have to stick to some one like Mr Jones who is already doing a great job and will continue to do so for another four years.

 
At 6:18 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

I wouldn't expect them to present their expectations honestly, but I'd like to think they'd know the outcomes. I'm sure that Plaid (and the other parties) know what they need to achieve in each region come May 3rd!

Bearing that in mind, surely Melding being on the list shows what the Conservatives are expecting.

After all, as a Barry resident, he would be an obvious candidate in the Vale of Glamorgan if they really thought they were going to win the constituency, wouldn't he?

 
At 8:39 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Well, I maintain they'd be pleased to here it nonetheless. They don't get much good press:)

With regards Melding, what the Conservatives expect and what might happen are entirely different matters.

Election nights usually throw up some surprises. The Vale might just be it this year, perhaps at Melding's expense.

 
At 9:50 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

For the sake of the residents of the Vale of Glamorgan, I hope not!

The Conservative candidate hasn't exactly covered himself in glory at county council level here!

 
At 3:10 pm, Anonymous daran said...

It's perfectly possible that, on the back of a modest uplift to the Conservative regional vote in South Wales Central, they could win two seats and hold a list place. Since winning the Vale would probably be on the back of such an uplift, I wouldn't write off David Melding just yet.

 
At 4:38 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Maybe. But we needn't necessarily assume that people will vote the same way in the constituencies as in the regions.

 

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