Should David Melding be reaching for his P45?
Tuesday, February 06, 2007

A strong Conservative performance in May's Assembly election could spell the end of David Melding's political career.

I've had the Excel spreadsheets out again and it seems that if the Tories gain Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan, Melding's days are numbered - he's relying on occupying the top berth in the South Wales Central regional list in order to get elected.

But even if the Tories gain only Cardiff North, the best dressed man in the Assembly could be making for the exit if the Lib Dems put in a slightly improved performance in the regional vote.

Intriguingly, a strong Tory performance could most benefit Plaid Cymru. Presuming the Conservatives take the Vale and Cardiff North and then calculating the distribution of regional seats using average votes won in 1999 and 2003, Plaid would win three of the four regional seats in South Wales Central.

These figures may be distorted, however, by Plaid's abnormally good performance in 1999. Using only the 2003 figures in this scenario would see Plaid win two and Labour and the Lib Dems win one top-up seat each.

Either way, the Tories are likely to cancel out every seat they win in the South Wales Central region. And this must give encouragement to Labour, who could pinch a regional seat here and in Mid & West Wales, thereby putting a gloss on what is likely to be an otherwise drab performance.

Labels: , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 7:50 am, ,