Who's doing Ieuan's maths?

Nobody would pay for me to go to Caernarfon, so I'm afraid you'll have to go elsewhere for the big news on Plaid's conference. Like, for instance, Ieuan Wyn Jones' apparent inability to spell.

But some would doubt his aptitude for Maths too.

Right at the very end of his appearance on the BBC's Dragon's Eye on Thursday, Plaid's leader gave his prediction of the way North Wales will vote in May's election. He said:

We can win five seats in North Wales. Me as the First Minister elected from Anglesey (if the party does well in the rest of Wales) and Dafydd Wigley on the list aswell with Janet Ryder. I think this is an election where Plaid are going to make significant advances.


Significant indeed. That result would suggest a phenomenal collapse of the Labour vote. It would also suggest a big increase in the Plaid vote on the regional list at the expense of the other parties.

You can't fault Ieuan for his optimism. Plaid have said that from now on they're going to be positive about their politics. And apart from all the attack ads and negative soundbites, that's exactly what they're doing.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:36 pm,

10 Comments:

At 2:25 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If all of them were elected in Ieuan's fantasy world, do you realise that the average age of the representation from Plaid Cymru in North Wales would be 60 years of age, with no new blood coming in at all into the Assembly.

So much for a party for the future of Wales.

No wonder they want to increase the amount of council tax rebate to pensioners...

 
At 3:08 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would like the best person to be chosen to do a job.....I don't care about sex, colour, age. Every body else should feel the same way too.

 
At 4:14 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the exception of Wigley, I would hardly call this bunch the best people for the job. They have hardly distinguished themselves in the Assembly during the last eight years.

There are certainly better and younger candidates within Plaid who should be carrying the flame. It is a shame they didn't get the chance to be elected as the old guard closed ranks in North Wales

And if gender didn't matter, then Wigley would not have to be playing second fiddle to Janet Ryder.

 
At 4:16 pm, Blogger Alwyn ap Huw said...

That result would suggest a phenomenal collapse of the Labour vote. It would also suggest a big increase in the Plaid vote on the regional list at the expense of the other parties.

That there will be a collapse in the Labour vote and an increase in the Plaid vote is highly likely. Whether that will be enough to elect Dafydd Wigley remains to be seen. A third factor will be how well the Conservatives do. They may well lose one or both of their list seats if they gain two or three constituencies, leaving a place for Wigley to fill.
I am not convinced that Wigley will be returned to the Bay but it is within the realms of possibility and not something that can be discounted as fantasy or a delusion of dodgy arithmetic.

 
At 4:46 pm, Blogger sanddef said...

I would hardly call this bunch the best people for the job. They have hardly distinguished themselves in the Assembly during the last eight years

And Labour have??? I think not!

 
At 5:33 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"A third factor will be how well the Conservatives do. They may well lose one or both of their list seats if they gain two or three constituencies, leaving a place for Wigley to fill."

The problem with these argumemts is that if the Tories really did that well in the constituencies you'd expect them to get a similarly spectacular boost in the regional vote.

Nevertheless, the obvious beneficiaries of Tory and Plaid gains would be Labour and the Lib Dems, not Dafydd Wigley.

 
At 9:19 pm, Blogger Martin Eaglestone said...

Well we visited Plaid, and offered Mr Jones the chance to sign the non-Tory pledge. Lots of Plaid people came to greet us, but no Mr Jones, nor Alun Ffred Jones.See blog for updates.

However they sent an MP - why for an Assembly pledge??, who greeted me as a "socialist" but then even he couldn't quite sign the non-Tory pledge. Why - well he rushed back inside to tell the tv cameras he was up for a deal with the Tories.

Special guest speaker next year at Plaid's conference - John Redwood on "The benefits of coalition government in a new Europe" !!!

 
At 8:11 pm, Blogger Mike Cridland said...

"However they sent an MP - why for an Assembly pledge??, who greeted me as a "socialist"

I think you should take legal action for calling you that!

Defamation of character, I think!

 
At 2:07 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well considering that Plaid already have 3 seats in North Wales, are highly likely to win a fourth in Aberconwy, it isnt exactly nonsensical to suggest Plaid could win an extra seat with Dafydd Wigley on the regional list.

To Mr Eaglestone you appear to be running an opurtunistic and spineless campaign worthy of the Liberal Democrats. Yes Plaid would not sign his silly contract. However the most shocking news is that Mr Eaglestone would not sign Plaids contract signing up for no more hospital closures, illegal wars and nuclear weapons!

Its quite clear Mr Eaglestone has little to offer Arfon or North Wales if the most he can do is reject promising no hospital closures and instead cause trouble outside conferences!

And its rather dishonourable to promote your election by suggesting to vote for you in order so Dafydd Wigley can win!

Heres looking forward to another Labour defeat in North Wales!

 
At 2:57 pm, Blogger Aled said...

Plaid know Labour are on track to win Arfon following the boundary changes hence all the barracking they give Martin Eaglestone.

Im a traditional Plaid Cyrmu voter but cannot stomach the fact that they wont rule out a coalition with the Tories.

Its funny what short term memory loss Adam Price and others appear to be suffering - having told us for years what damage the Tories would/have caused Wales and yet they are rushing to do a grubby deal with the devil.

I'm switching my vote to Labour for the first time ever in May. A lot of my neightbours are doing the same.

Plaid - you've blown it....

 

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