What Ieuan wants
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
No decision yesterday in Plaid's group meeting, so that means the future governance of Wales is likely to hinge on next Tuesday's weekly get-together.
Some people have already been speculating about the way Plaid AMs will vote, with almost everyone agreeing that Ieuan Wyn Jones is in the Rainbow camp.
Of course, he would just say he wants whatever's best for Wales, which is a bit like that ruthless lady from the Apprentice saying she wants what's best for Alan Sugar.
His own personal political inflections (and ambitions) must inevitably be playing a huge part in his thinking. It's just that he hasn't bothered sharing them with the rest of us. The BBC reports that he'll be meeting party members across Wales shortly to "explain the choice he believes Plaid should make." I'd wager he'll be doing a lot more tergiversating (love that word) than explaining, given that the details of the Red-Green pact have yet to be revealed.
IWJ is a very shrewd politician, even if there is something Yorkshire Terrieresque about his television appearances. And you can bet that whichever way the group votes next Tuesday (if indeed it is next Tuesday), it will subsequently appear to be the option Ieuan has 'preferred' for some time. If you like, he has hard-boiled the egg before it has had a chance to splatter all over his face.
But in the meantime, he can influence that decision. In the end, whether we advance towards a Rainbow or a Red-Green government comes down to the fancy of fifteen Plaid AMs. Ieuan need only convince seven of them and history is his (although a few of them need no convincing).
There is, however, one problem: the deal the negotiating team have been working on feverishly with Labour. What if that document ends up matching the All-Wales Accord on most issues, and trumping it on the key issues of the Welsh language and a referendum on further powers? After all, Adam Price is involved again, and we all know what he wants.
If that were the case, the Rainbow might become very difficult to defend and some of its advocates may be forced to recognise that perhaps one of its attractions was getting closer to the Tories all along.
What Ieuan wants may not necessarily be what he gets. Either way, though, he won't let on.
1414 UPDATE: In one minute I will be respecting a moment of contemplation and support for BBC journalist Alan Johnston (left) who has now been missing for 100 days. You can sign the petition and read more about the BBC's campaign for his release HERE.
On an altogether different note, everyone's favourite dog-handling, vest-wearing bald guy has written his idyosyncratic take on the world of Welsh blogging, which you can read HERE.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:54 pm,
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The Gordon Brown meme
I've been tagged by Iain Dale and Matt Wardman to say two things about Gordon Brown.
Two words, of course, would be easy. Good off! Or bugger luck! Or something like that:)
Anyway, heregoes...
Two things Gordon Brown should be proud of:
His (Ed) Balls
His Cow's lick
Two things he should apologise for:
Supporting the England football team
Cardiff North (or was that Cherie's fault?)
Two things he should do immediately when he becomes PM:
Promote Peter Hain
Demote Peter Hain
Two things he should do while he is PM:
Favours for rich people
Make St David's Day a national
I hereby tag fresh-faced newbie Seneddwr, Sanddef (because he loves everything to do with blogging), and anyone who'd like to share their wisdom with us in the comments because I am still
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, l Assembly for Wales, meme, NationaGordon Brown, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition, two things
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:35 pm,
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Plaid won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
There's been a lot of chatter over the past few hours about Plaid re-opening talks with Labour over a formal coalition.
Some of the usual suspects, bless them, have been getting quite upset. Stomp, stomp, stomp. We want our bloody rainbow.
Well, as I said yesterday, they are still odds on to get it. So kem down.
Have any of Plaid's rainbowista AMs publicly changed their position? No.
Has Plaid's leader given any indication that he's keen on a deal with Labour? No.
Has Gordon Brown suggested that he'd whip up Labour MPs to get a referendum on further powers through parliament? No (in fact Tomos Livingstone reports Labour MPs saying quite the opposite).
Were Tory and Plaid AMs drinking together in the Eli Jenkins last night? Probably.
Do we know who the identity of the 'senior source' that broke the red-green story? No.
Worth bearing in mind, I think, that I've seen people quoted as 'senior sources' before who were fourth placed constituency candidates in the assembly election. Can this chap persuade the majority of the party's AMs, party members and national council to change their mind? You decide.
But taking all that's been said in the past few weeks, it seems Plaid's assembly group still overwhelmingly back a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. They wouldn't have dismissed the red-green option so quickly on the previous occasion if that wasn't the case.
And it is they, ultimately, who will make the decision which will go forward to the national council in July. The national exeucitve, which meets on Saturday in Aberystwyth, is merely an advisory body. So, whatever happens, there will not be another Lib Dem moment, whereby a bunch of obscure councillors and receding hairlines overrule directly elected politicians.
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Plenary Live:
Alun Cairns has had a hair cut - makes him look even more like the work experience kid.
Eleanor Burnham just attempted to break the world speed-speaking record while asking her tabled question to the new Sustainability Minister, Jane Davidson.
According to Ms Davidson's website, incidentally, she's still the Education Minister.
Of course, to the majority of the population, all this means nothing at all, so I may stop now. They're talking about footpaths again...
Has Brynle Williams been sunbathing - or has he just done up his shirt collar too tight? He's certainly very red. Perhaps he's getting worked up about those badgers he's prattling on about.
Now, the moment we've all been waiting for: Questions to the Minister for Education, Culture, the Welsh Language, Laid-back Self-confidence, Going Grey Gracefully and Everything Else on the Universe just to make Jane Davidson feel bad.
Alun Davies quotes from Alun Cairns' blog. The little man favours academic selection. Of course, I expect Alun Cairns to retaliate with a quotation from Alun Davies' blog: 'Happy Christmas'.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:22 pm,
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How long has Rhodders got?
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
That's the question I was asked today. And for once I didn't chafe my precious parts sitting on that well-worn pundit's fence. Instead, I leapt tentatively into the 'He'll be gone by autumn' camp.
Predictions are usually wrong in Welsh politics and there are plenty of twists and turns yet. But you'd have to say that, on current form, the rainbowistas look set to make a move, perhaps before the summer's out.
Quite simply, Ieuan Wyn Jones wants it too much. Tactically, it might be better to keep the Labour option open as long as possible to at least make it look like the rainbow was forced to make a move. But at the moment, IWJ's poker face is about as convincing as a Didier Drogba dive.
If it were to go ahead, though, I think one of the biggest changes might be in 'foreign affairs'. I know that isn't exactly part of the assembly's remit, but with a nationalist first minister in Scotland and a sympathetic ear in Northern Ireland, the rainbow would look to put pressure on Westminster as part of an alliance with the other devolved institutions.
This could be anything from stating a view on foreign policy (remember Rhodri's refusal to have a view on Iraq?) to demanding greater representation in negotiations with the European Union. I had a chat with Plaid's Adam Price MP about this yesterday before a programme on Radio Scotland, and he suggested the Celtic clout of the devolved governments would look to work as a pincer movement on Westminster to secure, for example, a better financial settlement.
Alex Salmond has already made calls for the resumption of Joint Ministerial Committees between the devolved institutions, and also 'Council of the Isles' style meetings (including the Republic of Ireland), with the UK government.
Of course, these may go ahead whether Rhodri stays or not, but I imagine a Plaid-led government would be anxious to sign-up and secure added legitimacy for the assembly as a national institution in its own right.
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The latest offering from the sparingly-used poll tool:
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UPDATE: Impeccable timing as ever.
Vaughan Roderick reports that Plaid are set to agree to further talks on a deal with Labour in their meeting this evening.
Labour have apparently offered at least three cabinet positions and firm promises on a referendum on further powers, a commission to review the Barnett formula and a Welsh Language act.
To be updated...
Sources in Plaid say it'll have to be an offer they can't refuse. Could Brown sanction the passage of a referendum through the Houses of Parliament? After all, he can't be keen on the idea of starting his premiership with Labour in opposition in both Scotland and Wales.
Either that, or Ieuan Wyn Jones has finally got control of his poker face. This might just be the smokescreen that enables him to say Labour can't deliver.
Labels: Joint Ministerial Committees, Labour, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 4:00 pm,
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Tories Cook up a storm
Monday, June 11, 2007
You all scoffed last week when I hinted the Conservatives might try and bring down the government over lack of movement on a new Welsh language act.
But with travel agent Thomas Cook appearing stubbornly monoglot in its unwillingness to embrace the Welsh language, the Tories made the first move.
They are calling for a review of the Welsh language act. You'll remember that Labour's legislative proposals stopped short of it, though it's a big deal in the proposed rainbow coalition programme for government.
Plaid have since chipped in with their own calls for increased Welsh language legislation. Well, they do everything together these days, don't they?
Labour's masterplan is to exclude the Conservatives from the consensus they have been seeking. They are trying to raise issues which isolate the Tories. But the men in blue are attempting quite the reverse and on today's form, seem to be having some success.
UPDATE:
Q: What's the worst thing you can do when you're embroiled in a storm about the Welsh language?A: Put up a bi-lingual sign which butchers it.
Even Jade Goody would do a better job of public relations than that.
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Tories, Welsh Labour, Welsh language
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:22 pm,
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Red + Green = Brown
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Hardly the most inspiring colour, is it?
And yet, whether Wales is a car or an aeroplane, there seems to be mileage in the red-green Plaid-Labour idea again. Adam Price is all for it. And Edwina Hart used her first interview since the twentieth century to put her weight behind it too.
(Quite how any assembly member has managed to dodge the Welsh press for so long is a complete mystery. After all, there are only sixty of them. There should probably be a Dragon's Eye rota, just to even it out. At least that would give Helen Mary Jones some well-earned time off to go scarf shopping.)
Plaid and Labour in a grand coalition? Lefties everywhere are getting erect nipples just thinking about it.
But they haven't had to face Ieuan Wyn Jones. Does this man really fancy playing second fiddle to Rhodri's 'same-old' septet?
No.
He'd quite like to captain the ship himself. That's why the opposition are already behaving like a government in waiting in Cardiff Bay, with joint strategies and chummy tell-all telephone conversations between the leaders.
Adam Price is evidently doing everything he can to make a deal with Labour more palatable. After all, his father was a miner don't you know.
For all it matters, Ieuan Wyn Jones' father might as well have been Aneurin Bevan. He's still pushing for the rainbow.
Six weeks, then, to make or break a government. And at the end of it, most of the parties in Wales could be faced with seismic splits.
Labour is set for an internal battle whether it teams up with Plaid Cymru or not. And if Plaid go with Labour, Ieuan Wyn Jones' position would look very shaky. But then again, a deal with the Tories would cause a massive rupture with the left of the party. Meanwhile, Mike German and Nick Bourne really need to deliver the rainbow coalition to be sure of their jobs.
My prediction: I'll go out on a limb and say that three of the parties will have different leaders by the next assembly election. Within the next few months there'll be some sort of deal between the parties. And that means losers as well as winners.
Labels: coalition, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labout, Plaid Cymru, politics, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:03 am,
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The Queen
Sunday, June 03, 2007
I hate to spoil a surprise, so you'll have to wait until later today or even buy the Wales on Sunday to find out the identity of the two Plaid AMs who are giving the Queen's assembly visit a miss next week.
They'll be visiting a homeless charity in Swansea instead, as you do. And a number of eminent republicans are backing them.
But why aren't there more of these eminent republicans within the ranks of Plaid itself? After all, this is a party which wants to see an independent, socialist Wales. One would have thought the idea of a British monarchy was pretty inimical to that goal.
Of course, Welsh nationalism has often gone hand in hand with a sort of soft royalist tradition which has served both sides well. After all, much of the idea of 'Welshness' we now treasure was concocted by dreamy sycophants in nineteenth century London boozers.
Are Plaid Cymru today really so different?
Labels: monarchy, Plaid Cymru, queen
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:59 am,
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Pleidiol wyf i'm beth?
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Ydy Cymru'n gwlad yntai'n genedl? Dyna dw i'n gofyn yn fy ngholofn yn Golwg yr wythnos hon.Ymhlith yr holl drafodaethau clymbleidio rhwng y pleidiau wedi'r etholiad, mae'n debyg fod y mater hwn wedi dod i'r brig. Yn ol pob son, roedd yna gwrthwynebiad egwyddorol yn y Blaid Lafur ac ymysg y Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol i'r gair 'cenedl' yn nogfen Plaid Cymru. Yn wir, newidiodd y Blaid Lafur yr is-deitl 'Adeiladu Cenedl' yn nogfen Plaid Cymru i 'Gymru Cryfach' yn ei ddogfen ei hun.
Ond beth ar wyneb y ddaear sy’n bod â’r gair 'cenedl'? Wedi’r cyfan, mae’n syniad sydd wedi codi mewn nifer o areithiau amlycaf Gordon Brown.
Dwn i ddim. I fi mae Cymru yn gwlad ac yn genedl. Mae Prydain yn wladwriaeth ac mae Ewrop (ar hyn o bryd) yn gawlach llwyr.
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A topic pinched from my column in Golwg this week...
One of the sticking points in the post-election coalition negotiations was over the alleged nationalist rhetoric in Plaid Cymru's proposals.
Members in both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats were apparently unhappy with the subtitle 'Building a nation' in Plaid's negotiation document. Indeed, so unacceptable was this offending phrase that Labour had changed it to 'A Stronger Wales' by the time it came back to the Plaid office.
Why?
After all, one of Gordown Brown's favourite soundbites is to talk about the 'Nations and regions of Great Britain', of which Wales is surely one of the former. Is the Unionist/Nationalist split in Cardiff Bay really so infantile as to be quibbling about silly little things like this?
Labels: cenedl, clymbleidio, cymru, Golwg, gwlad, Lib Dems, Llafur, Plaid Cymru
posted by Blamerbell @ 11:11 am,
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Wish you were there?
Monday, May 28, 2007
Whoppee! It's the Whistun break and our hard-working politicians are enjoying a week in the sun. All except those who've decided to holiday in Wales, that is.So what's the state of the nation? Well, it's a complete and utter shambles. Good job, bring on the Pina Coladas.
On Friday, Rhodri Morgan became first minister of a minority Labour administration. On Saturday, the Lib Dems voted to pursue a rainbow coalition with Plaid and the Tories which would necessitate his removal.
The ball is now very much in Plaid's court. But rather than smash it down the line for a winner, Ieuan Wyn Jones is hanging on to it for a game of keepie uppies.
The noises coming from the Plaid camp are that they now have time to discuss the rainbow option in earnest. I was on a panel with Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other day and he suggested they wouldn't necessarily need to make a move before the summer. Speaking on yesterday's Maniffesto programme, Ieuan Wyn Jones implied that the party's national council wouldn't even be discussing the proposals until July.
In the meantime, Rhodri Morgan will announce a cabinet and get on with the job. But he is a first minister on probation in charge of a government in paralysis. Plaid should beware, however. The longer he's in charge, the more difficult it will be to remove him.
Mathematically and constitutionally, Plaid can take as long as they like. But realistically, they will need a bloody good reason. We're not used to putsch politics here in Wales. Coups are for chickens, not for Cardiff Bay.
It may be possible for the opposition parties to engineer disquiet over hospital reconfiguration or the budget which would prompt a vote of no confidence. But they would be taking power in very different circumstances then compared to now.
At the moment, the election still isn't too far gone. A cabinet hasn't been named and the machinery of administration is still in cold storage. Moreover, the rainbow is still widely seen as an alternative to Labour rather than a calculated plot to oust the government. People may not look upon the idea so favourably in a few months time.
But while the Lib Dems and the Tories have now played their hand, let's not forget that Plaid have emerged strengthened. For the next couple of weeks, at least, they have the threat of the rainbow to keep Labour on its toes. A red-green deal is not out of the question.
And yet there's still that glint in Ieuan Wyn Jones' eyes which suggests he's keen to govern. If that's so, there's nothing to stop him moving fast. Otherwise, there's every danger the assembly will be a national joke by the time he finally makes his move. This comedy of errors has gone on quite long enough.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:32 am,
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Shafted!
Thursday, May 24, 2007
It's no secret that the Lib Dems' six AMs don't get on. Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.
This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.
The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way politics is conducted in Wales has been scuppered by just one unelected officer on an internal Lib Dem council.
The consequences are enormous. Not only is Mike German's leadership now under severe threat but people will be left wondering, a la Simon Jenkins, what on earth are the Lib Dems for?
They've turned their noses up at the offer of PR in local government, which is the one big thing that set them apart. Now, it seems, they'd rather snipe from the sidelines than implement their own policies. No doubt we'll be hearing very soon what was lined up in the coalition document. It is certain, however, to make their election promise of maximum votes for maximum Lib Dem policies completely redundant.
On hospital reconfiguration, reducing class sizes and making the green switch they've turned down the chance to have it their own way.
Peter Black tells me that "in the end the party did not have the stomach for coalition." The rationale is that they can reinvent in opposition. But it is going to be stupendously difficult.
Because whatever government eventually takes power in Cardiff Bay, the Lib Dems will be coalition partners by proxy. By bailing out, they've left few alternatives and very little time. The government's mistakes will be the Lib Dems' mistakes because they engineered the circumstances which put them there.
They are, quite frankly, knee deep in it. To be an effective opposition, you must be free to criticise the government. But every time the Lib Dems open their mouths, the other parties will be quick to remind them that they had their chance and blew it.
Yesterday afternoon, the rainbow coalition document came back from its civil service going over - as if a sign was needed about how advanced the process had become.
The Plaid-Labour document, by contrast, never made it out of Helen Mary Jones' handbag. By committing to the rainbow route, Ieuan was obviously keen to shed his wobble. But had he adopted the more cautious approach of the 'feisty foursome' the next few hours might not be such a scramble.
It seems pretty clear that a Plaid-Tory deal is a non-starter. I put this to Nick Bourne on Tuesday and he laughed it off.
So, Plaid and Labour are left with barely 48 hours to cobble together a programme of government for Wales. And thanks to Labour, there's a 28-page document sitting there ready to go. Who knows, the politicians might finally find something to agree about.
Labels: Conservatives, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:51 am,
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The deal Plaid left behind
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
More details are emerging of the deal Plaid turned down to concentrate solely on forming a rainbow coalition. It is thought Labour were offering a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, a review of the Barnett formula AND a new Welsh Language Act (in some form).
I also understand that at the time Plaid voted to sever talks with Labour, Rhodri Morgan's team were perusing the very same document on health reconfiguration which had been submitted to the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even though Labour had earlier rejected the idea of a moratorium on the reconfiguration programme, the four AMs who voted against suspending negotiations clearly thought there was still hope of reaching an agreement on this and other key issues.
Nevertheless, the other Plaid AMs decided that talks were not progressing at a sufficient pace. And yet, had this offer been on the table on May 4th, surely they would have snapped it up?
UPDATE: It seems others within Plaid are contesting this version of events. They say that a Welsh Language Act wasn't on the table, only the watered-down promise of a 'Dyfarnydd' which appeared in Labour's manifesto. They also say that Rhodri Morgan was prepared to offer an assembly vote on a referendum, but stopped short of guaranteeing his members would support it.
Labels: deal, Labour, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 9:49 am,
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The return of two party politics
Problem is, they're both Plaid Cymru.
The decision, yesterday, of the party's assembly group to stop negotiating with Labour and take Wales within touching distance of a rainbow coalition government was far from unanimous. After hours of debate, four women remained unconvinced. They will now make the case for rejecting a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems in the run up to Saturday's key vote of the National Council, which must authorise any potential alliance.
Helen Mary Jones, Leanne Wood, Bethan Jenkins and Nerys Evans form a feisty female quartet, intent on spilling what they consider to be a rapidly diminishing pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There are two major sticking points.
Firstly, they say: "We fought this election on a platform to deliver a proper Parliament for our nation. A deal with the Conservatives would undermine the chance of delivering that goal."
There's no reference here to Tories actively blocking plans for further devolution. I don't believe they are. Rather, the obstacle to delivering a proper Parliament is the Labour party. They are the ones with the ability to block such a move in Wales and in Westminster. Only a deal with Labour could have made sure that a vote on further powers would make it past the first hurdle.
And yet, we've been led to believe that Labour fell short of offering such a guarantee. Why, then, do the dissenting foursome consider this just cause to vote against a rainbow coalition? Did they wonder if Rhodri was ever pushed far enough? And did they believe there was still time to push him further?
Secondly, they say: "There is a clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives. That is why we believe an arrangement between us would be unsustainable in the long-run and not deliver the stable government for which we all strive."
It can't be the language issue. It can't be the devolution issue. It can't even be PR in local government. The Tories are already much closer to Plaid than Labour in all these areas. It must, therefore, come down to ideology - tantamount to saying Plaid and the Tories could never work together.
And that's perfectly understandable. After all, it's what almost everyone thought just six months ago. But that wasn't the message of the election campaign. Plaid won 15 seats by saying 'Kick Labour into touch and we'll rustle up something better'.
So which of the much-promoted 7 4 07 is causing such an almighty 'clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives'?
I'd be surprised if the Tories would veto any of them (except free laptops for journalists - that was ridiculous). Because this isn't an argument about policies - at least the ones put forward in the manifesto. It is, rather, an argument about the social fabric of the people in the constituencies these dissenting AMs represent. The people who vote for Leanne Wood don't teeter pensively above the Conservative box before casting their vote in favour of socialism. If they have to think twice, they'll think about what Labour's done for them recently.
Both the rainbowistas and the rebels want to see Plaid gain a foothold in the valleys to truly challenge Labour as the party of Wales. The former want to do it from government with the help of the Tories. The latter believe Plaid could deliver a winning lottery ticket to every door and still be tarnished by such an association.
So, those four brave women will now attempt in earnest to convince the National Council. They are, in effect, campaigning for a minority Labour government. And if the vote goes their way, Labour would be in the driving seat again. Can Welsh politics really get any weirder?
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, rebels
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:46 am,
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Happy Birthday Ieuan
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
"It's just what I've always wanted. Thanks Dafydd."
"No problem," said Mr Wigley. "It's a lovely Welsh frame, though that photo of me is quite old now. I'll even sign it if you want, Ieuan."
"That won't be necessary, Dafydd.
"And what's this Helen - a scarf?"
Today, Ieuan Wyn Jones celebrates his birthday. It looks set to be one he'll never forget.
At 3pm, Plaid have their group meeting. They'll be discussing the document that looks set to make him First Minister.
This morning, I had a chat with Nick Bourne - Deputy First Minister elect. He was in good spirits. Mike German will have to settle for Assistant Deputy First Minister or Deputy Deputy First Minister. Whichever makes him sound less desperate:)
But he will, at least, have something to sell to his members at the Lib Dems' special conference on Saturday. While Peter Black remains "fundamentally opposed" to any kind of coalition, Mike German will be on the verge of delivering the closest thing the party has to a raison d'etre - PR in local government. They may have to settle for local referendums on the issue rather than seeing it rolled out with immediate effect, but at least it's something to shout about.
Labour AMs were in scarce supply today. Their world has been turned upside down. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems (all six of them) were still frantically negotiating and the Tories were practising their swagger.
Plaid are now in a huddle, but they are unlikely to spring any birthday surprises on Ieuan Wyn Jones. Rhodri, meanwhile, is having his cake and eating it.
UPDATE: Face to face talks between Plaid Cymru and Labour. It would have to be an absolutely incredible deal. Even then it's doubtful whether Labour's assembly members would sanction it. After all, when Rhodri is gone, they'll have to live with the consequences.
UPDATE: BBC are reporting that the triple alliance document has been sent to civil servants to take a look at. Are the Plaid-Labour talks an elaborate bluff? If Plaid go ahead with a rainbow coalition, they'll want to make it look like the last resort. That seems to be what they're engineering at the moment.
UPDATE: First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones. You'd better start getting used to the sound of that. Plaid have suspended talks with Labour.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Nick Bourne, Plaid Cymru, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:45 pm,
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On the verge of power or the brink of despair?
After two years waiting, I have finally watched City of the Lost Children. And I didn't understand a minute of it.
An awful lot of Welsh people probably feel the same way. We went to the polls almost three weeks ago and yet most voters will still be none the wiser as to what's going on.
The film is a sort of dystopian fantasy in which people pull out each other's eyeballs and eat them. Not dissimilar, some Plaid members would say, to life under a rainbow coalition.
By the end of play today, it should be almost certain who'll be forming a government as the next first minister of Wales. Barring a miracle, it'll be Ieuan Wyn Jones.
This will make some Plaid supporters very very cross. Back in December I wrote that "most Plaid AMs would rather cut off their right leg, put it in a mincer and eat it between two slices of certain death than go into coalition with the Tories."
It's still true, of course, it's just that some of them now think that's a price worth paying.
But I wrote those words long before an election campaign which saw Plaid define every inch of themselves as the party that wasn't Labour. While there was hardly an ill word said about the Tories, Plaid spent an awful lot of money telling us to 'Kick Labour into touch' or that Wales was 'Going nowhere fast under Labour'.
The main issue was the health service and the mess Labour was said to be making of it. The buzzword was change. Plaid produced a manifesto full of grinning kids out of the Adams catalogue and everyone thought it was terribly professional. We're ready for government, they hollered. Only if you team up with the Tories, the media hollered tirelessly back.
It should come as no surprise, therefore, that this is exactly what looks set to happen. The people who are muttering about setting up a breakaway party or cancelling their membership must have spent the entire election campaign on another planet (or at least somewhere east of Shrewsbury). It's about as much of a shock as a Catherine Tate punchline.
The first few weeks will be critical. Plaid must present a united front and start looking like a party capable of governing. There will be a lot of scepticism at first, especially in South Wales where people will be wondering why on earth that lovely old lady who used to be on the council isn't in government anymore.
And if Plaid's own members aren't even behind them, what hope for the valleys man who hates the fact that the automated voice in the post office has to repeat everything in Welsh?
Government is for grown ups. And Plaid will need to learn fast if they aren't going to look like the lost children of Cardiff Bay.
Labels: Government, Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 am,
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101 ways to prop up a 'failed Labour administration'*
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Peter Black, newly re-elected Lib Dem AM for South Wales West, knows exactly what he is doing.
Yesterday's blog post got the ball rolling. 'It is clear that we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think,' he wrote. For 'radical re-think' read 'leadership contest,' I responded. He had opportunities to deny this both on my blog and on Radio Wales. He chose not to do so.
And today, he's at it again: 'My instincts are that the Welsh Liberal Democrats do not have to be the deal-makers in this process. We have our own issues to sort out first around where we are going as a party and what sort of image we project to the Welsh public.'
It's now acknowledged that the leaders of Lib Dem councils are not keen on a Lab-Lib pact. Their long-term strategy is based on undermining Labour, not propping it up. In addition, one third of the Lib Dem assembly group have now spoken out against a Labour coalition. OK, so that only adds Eleanor Burnham to the mix (so far), but that's the Lib Dems' fault for only getting six assembly members. When the numbers are this small the fractions are more significant.
These prominent dissenting voices make a coalition with Labour increasingly unlikely. It was also the least preferred option of people quizzed in the little-reported BBC election night poll.
So, where does that leave Welsh governance? Heading towards either a rainbow coalition or a Plaid/Labour agreement, I guess. And as I trawled through the archived articles of the election period, I came across this quotation from Plaid, time and time again: 'We would not go into coalition under a Conservative First Minister and we would not prop up a Labour Government either.'
Only once did a caveat pop up. And it popped up as Ieuan Wyn Jones and Matt Withers were licking the froth off their coffee spoons in Cardiff Bay. 'We wouldn't prop up a Labour government simply by agreeing on minor issues,' said IWJ as a spot of cappucino foam inadvertantly perched itself on the end of his nose.
I would've thought, then, that working out what constitutes a major issue would have been a priority for the new Plaid group as it met for the first time yesterday.
*-100
Labels: coalition, Government, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labour, Peter Black, Plaid Cymru, politics, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:53 pm,
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Four days to go and...
Monday, April 30, 2007
Lib Dem leader Mike German is in Aberystwyth again. He might as well buy a second home there. That'll please Elin Jones. Still, he might need somewhere to lie low on election night. Can you really see Plaid making the same mistake twice?
Labour say it's all about partnership. Peter Hain and Rhodri Morgan are going to comb each other's hair for the press sometime this afternoon. Activists will be choking on their clear red water.
Plaid Cymru have finally persuaded some chap called Eurfyl ap Gwilym to come down from London to take the flak over their finance programme. Expect Labour and the Tories to sling the mud with venom. I fear for poor Eurfyl it's going to be like trying to volley it away with a tennis racket - much of it is going to splatter over the brave little soldier's face. And why do Plaid need to 'call in' an expert anyway? Can't any of their AMs do sums?
And the Tories have brought in a notorious vote winner to help them with the final push. Unfortunately, he wasn't available so they've got Michael Howard instead.
1540 UPDATE: Just one measly sentence on the Welsh elections in the Guardian today. "Polls in Wales suggest Labour will remain the largest party but it is struggling to maintain its majority in the assembly." One measly sentence, and even that is bollocks.
Also, further proof that it's more exciting in Scotland. The Web 2.0 generation has politicised facebook by changing profile pictures to election slogans and writing political graffiti on friends' walls. More from Luke Pollard.
Labels: Elin Jones, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Peter Hain, Plaid Cymru, Rhodri Morgan, Tories, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 10:48 am,
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Wigley or won't he?
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
I can't believe I've been writing this blog for six months without asking the question, what the hell is Dafydd Wigley playing at?He is the nearest thing Wales has to a statesman. He was a consummate parliamentarian and continues to be respected across party political boundaries. And yet he is standing for election second on the North Wales regional list.
Now, at the moment Plaid have one list member in that region. To get another they'd have to do pretty poorly at constituency level. But in reality, they're in the hunt for two gains in North Wales: Aberconwy and Clwyd West. This would be great news for Plaid, but catastrophic for Dafydd Wigley who would be flung into the political wilderness (possibly accompanied by Janet Ryder).
So what's his game?
Well, apparently 'Dafydd's done his Maths', the implication being that he's got it all worked out because he is Dafydd Wigley and you absolutely have to trust that big boomy voice. I'm not convinced. Wigley is re-energised, that's for sure, but did he ever have his eyes on a political re-birth or was this always going to be a cameo appearance designed to give Plaid an election time lift? It is, perhaps, the political equivalent of taking one for the team - like the plucky midfielder who charges down a free kick only to get the ball lodged between his bollocks.
Dafydd Wigley is doing strange things to this election, not least because the list system makes psephology a whole lot of fun. Labour's Arfon candidate is reminding people to 'Vote Eaglestone Get Wigley', while the prospect of Plaid's leader losing his Ynys Mon seat to let Wigley in on the list would possibly even beat Rhodri Morgan's train journey as the most ironic moment of the campaign.
But I suspect that after all the hoo-ha on May 3rd not much will have changed. Except that Dafydd Wigley is likely to be holding his groin with some satisfaction, knowing that he hasn't let the team down.
Labels: Dafydd Wigley, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Martin Eaglestone, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:15 pm,
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Alan Johnson backs Plaid candidate
Alan Johnson (or whichever loon does his IT) has sent a letter of support to a Plaid Cymru candidate.Carolyn Edwards, who is fourth on the South Wales West regional list, was shocked when she received an email from the aspiring deputy prime minister entitled 'Good Luck in Neath & Port Talbot':
With the elections just around the corner I wanted to email and wish you well.
Just like you, I'll be spending a few extra quid on shoe leather over the next week or so and will share with you the unenviable delight of aching feet at the end of each day between now and May 3 rd. But never lose sight of why we do this. We do it because we're the ones with the ideas and policies that make a real difference to the lives of millions of people in this country.
As Secretary of State I know that we have successfully driven standards forward in education throughout every region. We could only do that with unprecedented investment and an unfaltering belief that every child should reach their full potential. More than most, that is an achievement that I'm immensely proud of.
I know the amount of hard work that goes into your campaign. Over the next couple of weeks I'll be out and about matching that effort up and down the country. If you can think of anything that I can do to help the election campaign in your area – no matter how small - then please let me know and I'll try and help.
Yesterday, rumours were rife about a possible Plaid-Labour partnership after May 3rd. Although I'd still say it was a little premature for the Education Secretary to be actively endorsing Plaid candidates! Perhaps Alan Johnson has the same sources as Vaughan Roderick?
(hat tip Bethan Jenkins)
Labels: Alan Johnson, candidate, email, gaffe, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 9:30 am,
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Deal or no deal?
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Right, that’s the day over. Time to reflect. (For background see HERE)
My initial reaction to this story was that we could nit pick our way out of it. What’s the difference between a deal and a coalition, I wondered. Isn't this just a story about semantics? Some blogs and news bulletins evidently wondered this too, because that's also the line they took.
But if we go back to Labour’s denial, what they say is that “this story is rubbish from start to finish”.
So, is it?
Is it rubbish that senior labour politicians (note that the report calls them politicians and not sources) are understood by the BBC to be “prepared to make major policy concessions in return for the party's support in votes of confidence and on issues such as the assembly budget”?
Is it rubbish that “prominent Labour figures have said they are considering a deal with Plaid”?
Is it? Is it? Eh?
If it is rubbish, then someone has made it up. Surely Labour aren’t accusing the BBC of that?
But let’s imagine it isn’t rubbish. The sound of cava/asti/lambrusco corks popping/unscrewing echoed around Ty Gwynfor today (they’re saving the good stuff for election night). Plaid think Labour are in meltdown. And they’re optimistic. This sort of ‘deal’ would see their programme of government implemented. They almost seem proud that they wouldn’t get any cabinet ministers.
But what would be the point of a deal like that? If Plaid argue that the current administration is incompetent – why keep it in power? And if Plaid value their seven election pledges so much – why trust a Labour government they so frequently decry to implement them? Why forfeit the chance to have real influence?
As far as tactics go, this is akin to political castration. Some very senior figures favour this sort of ‘agreement’ with Labour, but I’m not entirely sure that anyone is looking that far ahead. For the time being, it is serving a much more important purpose in electoral strategy: it undermines the Vote Plaid Get Tory line, it forces Labour into coalition territory (rather than talking about earning a majority) and it draws out the divides between the nationalists and unionists in the Labour party.
This may be talk best saved for May 4th. But it’s having an impact now.
UPDATE: I didn't hear Good Evening Wales (helpfully transcribed by Ted Jones), but apparently your mammoth debate in the comments section of my previous post got a mention from Labour's devilishly loyal Merthyr AM Huw Lewis:
"We have been upended in our campaign today by this individual or individuals. That combined actually with very damaging internet speculation which is going on at the moment I think has been a bad day for Labour and it needn't have been…"
I hope you're proud of yourselves!
Labels: coalition, Labour, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 7:01 pm,
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Kick Labour into touch?
Plaid Cymru are going to need some new posters.
1230 UPDATE: This is fast turning into a game of semantics. Just the sort of thing that will turn ordinary people off as much as it turns us anoraks on.
Labour rule out a coalition with Plaid, who in turn rule out 'propping up' Labour. But that doesn't rule out an 'agreement'. Which is just what Labour are accusing Plaid of patching together with the Tories. At least nobody now has the moral high ground on making amorous advances. They're all at it.
1245 UPDATE: Have talks, official or otherwise, already taken place?
1345 UPDATE: Leighton Andrews insists the source is not a senior figure: "The BBC may have found someone in the Labour Party to say what the BBC is reporting - but they are certainly not anyone with any authority to say anything about Welsh Labour strategy pre- or post-election." But the BBC's Vaughan Roderick claims it is someone 'high up in the party'. It's hardly surprising that Labour's unionist wing are issuing such strenuous denials. But what about the so-called nationalists in the Welsh Labour camp?
Labels: coalition, Labour, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:57 am,
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