Kick Labour into touch?












Plaid Cymru are going to need some new posters.

1230 UPDATE: This is fast turning into a game of semantics. Just the sort of thing that will turn ordinary people off as much as it turns us anoraks on.

Labour rule out a coalition with Plaid, who in turn rule out 'propping up' Labour. But that doesn't rule out an 'agreement'. Which is just what Labour are accusing Plaid of patching together with the Tories. At least nobody now has the moral high ground on making amorous advances. They're all at it.

1245 UPDATE: Have talks, official or otherwise, already taken place?

1345 UPDATE: Leighton Andrews insists the source is not a senior figure: "The BBC may have found someone in the Labour Party to say what the BBC is reporting - but they are certainly not anyone with any authority to say anything about Welsh Labour strategy pre- or post-election." But the BBC's Vaughan Roderick claims it is someone 'high up in the party'. It's hardly surprising that Labour's unionist wing are issuing such strenuous denials. But what about the so-called nationalists in the Welsh Labour camp?

Labels: , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 8:57 am,

71 Comments:

At 10:09 am, Blogger Ted Jones said...

Just shows the Labour party are in a complete shambles.

 
At 10:27 am, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Someone's obviously leaked next Thursday's poll to Labour and they've collectively shat in their trousers. This is like watching a comedy version of the Titanic going down.

 
At 11:32 am, Blogger Penddu said...

Rhodri has spat the dummy out saying that he has not 'authorised' anyone to discuss 'coalition' with Plaid.

Sounds like New Labour weasel words not Welsh Labour....

 
At 11:42 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Plaid don't know what they want, just look at IWJ on dragon's eye last Thursday he had no clue.

At least Labour knows what they want to do and the people of Wales know what they will get under another Labour government, better standard of living, building a better Wales for the future, investment in education, health, transport and the people of Wales not like the opposition parties; backward we will go if there is a government with Plaid or a Tory in it.

 
At 12:00 pm, Blogger Ted Jones said...

anon...

get to grips, this is a an internal Labour story leak from a senior source. sounds to me its Labour who don't know what they are doing.

 
At 12:09 pm, Anonymous der said...

anon....you are being ironic aren't you?

 
At 12:17 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

So what is it - Vote Plaid Get Tory or Vote Plaid Get Labour?

I guess as long as Plaid say nothing the Labour party(ies) are the only people who can tell us.

 
At 12:26 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nick Bourne last week in the Western Mail said that all 3 oppositions should go into coalition to have all but labour government, Mike German will work with anyone and Ieuan Wyn Jones will talk to anyone but wont work with anyone.

Rhodri Morgan and the team of Labour AM's have deliverd to the people of Wales and also stood up to the plate when faced with difficult issues have been raised.

Lets see who this so called senior official is, or is it someone who lerks in the shadows who is not credable.

 
At 12:33 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Anon,

I agree, i think this 'leak' all sounds a bit fishy to me...

Blamie- How about vote labour get a labour-led government? No other party can promise that, although Plaid have tried to.

Like i have said all along, i hope the tories are second in the polls, not only to put an end to this rainbow coalition idea, but for future coalitions that will be based on shared values and common purpose...i shall say no more until after the election.

 
At 12:36 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...


Rhodri Morgan and the team of Labour AM's have deliverd to the people of Wales and also stood up to the plate when faced with difficult issues have been raised.


Thanks for making me laugh, I nearly dropped my chips!

 
At 12:37 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Blamie- How about vote labour get a labour-led government?

You're almost as funny as anon!

 
At 12:44 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

They have free bus travel for the elderly and disabled, free prescriptions for all, a better economy, higher standards in health and education, taking Wales forward not back as Plaid would, there are 250 of them.

But can you tell me how will plaid be able to afford a lap top for every child. How will they be able to give £5000 to each new home owner, business tax cuts.

What about the Tories well what do they want we not heard anything from them, typical Tory i say.

The Lib Dems want everything under the sun especially PR.

If anyone can show me that rainbow group can do better then please try.

 
At 12:49 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"I agree, i think this 'leak' all sounds a bit fishy to me..."

Vaughan Roderick writes on his blog that he doesn't take a single word back. I expect this is quite a reliable source.

 
At 12:53 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok lets have Vaughan Roderick name his source then if he thinks its credable

 
At 1:05 pm, Anonymous der said...

Marcusian said...

"Like i have said all along, i hope the tories are second in the polls, not only to put an end to this rainbow coalition idea, but for future coalitions that will be based on shared values and common purpose...i shall say no more until after the election."

....and how good will that be for democracy ie Wales being perpetually governed by Labour? You are not talking about what's in the best interest of Wales....but of the Labour party. For you, Wales obviously means Labour. Wales is bigger than any party.

 
At 1:17 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

They have free bus travel for the elderly and disabled, free prescriptions for all, a better economy, higher standards in health and education, taking Wales forward not back as Plaid would, there are 250 of them.


Will you stop making me laugh? I'm trying to eat here!

 
At 1:22 pm, Blogger LabourMark said...

You didn't answer the question on how the parties would fund or even produce their policies ORDOVICIUS?

 
At 1:28 pm, Blogger Left Field said...

taking Wales forward not back

My god, it's Peter Hain :)

 
At 1:30 pm, Anonymous dave Rodway said...

Anonymous is so obvioulsy a Welsh Labour plant, and his ideas so 'on message', that he's probably some AM's assistant or PA. Even Labour party members don't spout that sort of twaddle because they'd get laughed at even inconstituency meetings.
It also makes his comments utterly boring, only ever spiced up with a bit of anti-language cliche-mongering.
There's probably a computer prgramme that generates him - called 'boring on-message toady persona' - that you just download and it randomly generates pap.
Dave Rodway

 
At 1:37 pm, Blogger LabourMark said...

Well the last few posts have been very funny. Me a plant nope, just a Labour supporter.

I am not a computer I do have a mind of my own and really I have lived where plaid have been in control for GOD knows how many years and nothing has improved with their efforts, if it was not for the Labour Government of both Westminster and Cardiff Bay I think my old village would have gotten worse.

I also remember the Tory years, the strikes, the poverty, the decline in health and education, boom and bust, backward not forward ( sorry its forward not backward if you lives in the south of England).

By the sounds of half of you on here you either are plaid or tory machines anyway.

 
At 1:38 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

anon, I think it's spelled *credible*. And since when do journalists name their sources?

 
At 1:44 pm, Blogger LabourMark said...

sorry I am typing off my mobile so spelling will be off a bit lol.

Well not all times but hey it be fun.

 
At 1:51 pm, Anonymous der said...

LabourMark said...

"I also remember the Tory years, the strikes, the poverty, the decline in health and education, boom and bust, backward not forward ( sorry its forward not backward if you lives in the south of England)."

How much are Brits in debt now...a record £1.3 trillion. That's the boom part. We now wait for the bust as interest rates are rising. Talk of the south of England....where all these foreign billionaires are making their homes because Labour has provided a tax haven for them. Hardly any young people can afford homes in the UK and the situation is even worse over much of Wales. I could go on....but that's enough for now. Open your eyes.

 
At 2:02 pm, Anonymous timbuckwho said...

Labour top brass have slapped this down. So the big question is where this came from. Who benefits? Only Carwyn Jones I think. Someone acting on his behalf? Also the beeb having Rodderick and Laura thingy discussing this as independent voices is just misleading. They are both Plaid.

 
At 2:06 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

FACT: Labour are the only party in Wales who have a manifesto that is presented in its entirety to be delivered in government.

All the other parties know they will not be in a majority government, the Lib Dems can shout 100% renewables, Plaid 'no student loans', 'Laptops', 'Free money for first-time buyers' all they want because they know that any coalition will involve a party that is opposed to that. Will the tories enter a coalition accepting all Plaid's policies?

FACT: The Labour party are the biggest party in wales because they gain the most votes in elections. Apparently i read that it is democracy or something like that...

Blamerbell: I am not doubting the source, i just know that it isnt some massive secret that some in the Labour party believe that a deal with Plaid is a deal for a centre-left government...and vice versa in Plaid. I am sure Adam Price would much rather a Labour/Plaid coalition than a Tory /Plaid one. I would rather a Labour/Plaid than a Labour/Lib dems... have a look.

http://renewedlabour.blogspot.com/2007/04/can-we-all-just-get-along.html

ORDO...

You dont like answering tough questions do you?

Another one for you:
What is false about 'Vote Labour for a Labour led government'? Explain how Labour would be a minor party in any coalition? Im sure even Plaid's doorknocking polls dont show Labour not having the most seats in May...

 
At 2:09 pm, Anonymous dave rodway said...

Tell you what Anon - why don;t the other parties take a leaf of out labour's book on the funding og election promises?
i.e. - break them 'cos they can;t afford them (see disabled home care, school b-fasts etc.
I do admit Labour have that Gordian-knot slashing solution, but it's a crap one. Known in the trade as 'breaking your manifesto pledges'.
DR

 
At 2:11 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"I am not doubting the source, i just know that it isnt some massive secret that some in the Labour party believe that a deal with Plaid is a deal for a centre-left government...and vice versa in Plaid. I am sure Adam Price would much rather a Labour/Plaid coalition than a Tory /Plaid one. I would rather a Labour/Plaid than a Labour/Lib dems... have a look."

But it's never been said in public. What Labour have said today effectively reinforces what IWJ said earlier in the week. Nobody has ruled out a deal between Plaid and Labour.

The reason that this is now a big deal (excuse the tautology) is that the Vote Plaid Get Tory line is under threat, and that's the line they hoped would draw out the core Labour support.

 
At 2:19 pm, Anonymous der said...

Marcusian said...
"The Labour party are the biggest party in wales because they gain the most votes in elections. Apparently i read that it is democracy or something like that..."

Fact: You want this to remain the case permanently and will resort to scaremongering to keep it that way. This is not good for democracy. Fact!

 
At 2:22 pm, Blogger LabourMark said...

so der you are saying all the opposition parties drew up their policies in the mind set that they will break them as soon as they get into power are you

 
At 2:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What excitement over a non story. The Scotish Labour party sent Margaret Curran to NZ to see how the system worked a few months ago. A Labour minority govt supported by Plaid on certain issues is obviously one of the alternatives after the election. On the other hand if Labour does badly would any party gain by propping up a minority Labour government? The problem with all the parties is that the apathy throughout the whole of wales means that none of them are certain of what will happen. As for the press they have to find something interesting to report because this is an election with no real issues . You have to feel sorry for the media having to listen to much of the tosh that is being spouted by a bunch of really mediocre politicians for another week.

 
At 2:34 pm, Anonymous Rhondda Dai said...

Couple of things, gang.

Firstly - I will happily bet the wife I've yet to marry and the house I've yet to buy that the 'source' is Carwyn Jones. Have spoken to people at the Beeb and Western Mail who both back this up. Leadreship election, anyone?

Secondly to der and ordovicious - you guys need to lighten up a little. Really. Accusing anyone who has the temerity to disagree with you of being baby munching lunatics who invaded Iraq single-handeldly is a trifle sad.

Blammerbell - you're in danger of losing you're well-earned impartiality with yr comments on this one!

Dave Rodway - take a holiday. Long term.

 
At 2:36 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Blamerbell,

Labour is the only party who could realistically say they are campaigning for government. This is a legitmate aim for Labour and coalition talks are far less important to Labour with regards policy, Plaid have been far bolder with spending committments knowing they will not get through a tory/plaid deal, the lib dems the same with '100% renewables' and a Labour coalition. Vote Plaid- get a tory still exists because they refuse to say they will not enter any government with the tories.

The only way you will have a non-Labour led government is with Plaid and the Tories being in government together. True or False?

If you vote for Labour it is a cast iron guarantee that the Tories will not be in a Labour government or coalition. The better Plaid does, the chances of Tory ministers increase. Plaid would choose a coalition with the tories over a Lab-Lib if they had the choice. That would indicate that the only way to stop tories getting into power would be to vote Labour.

To clarify-

The more votes Labour get, the less chance the tories have of power.

The more votes Plaid get (particularly at the expense of Labour) means that the Tories will have more chance of power.

 
At 2:40 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Fact: You want this to remain the case permanently and will resort to scaremongering to keep it that way. This is not good for democracy. Fact!

What is wrong wanting a party a support and want to stand for win as many votes as possible in a democratic election? You telling me that a hundred years of Labour support in Wales is based on scaremongering? Pretty bloody good scaremongering then!

 
At 2:45 pm, Anonymous der said...

Marcusian said...

"What is wrong wanting a party a support and want to stand for win as many votes as possible in a democratic election? You telling me that a hundred years of Labour support in Wales is based on scaremongering? Pretty bloody good scaremongering then! "

Not at all. But that 100 years of supporting Labour hasn't got Wales very far has it! it's the poorest region in western Europe. The situation in Wales has now changed forever. Labour is losing control. They are now....like you are doing....resorting to scaremongering to retain power.

 
At 2:47 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

You didn't answer the question on how the parties would fund or even produce their policies ORDOVICIUS?


I think they've answered that themselves, various times, on the TV and in the press. If you can't keep abreast of these things then there's no point coming crying to me about it, I couldn't give a toss.

Oh and by the way, Im not a politician, this isn't Dragonseye, and you most definately are not Rhun ap Iorwerth.

 
At 2:49 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Labour is the only party who could realistically say they are campaigning for government.

LOL

 
At 2:51 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Secondly to der and ordovicious - you guys need to lighten up a little.

Really? Fascinating. No wait! I meant tedious!

 
At 2:52 pm, Blogger LabourMark said...

Hey ord I never said you were a politicia, you defended them and I was just curious. If you didn't give a t##s then why comment on it then.

 
At 2:52 pm, Anonymous Ordovicius' Piles said...

'Oh and by the way, Im not a politician, this isn't Dragonseye, and you most definately are not Rhun ap Iorwerth.'

Ordovicius - just 'cos Rhun's a Nat doesnlt mean he's any good at his job.

 
At 2:54 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Der,

I am not referring to Labour's record, (although ask yourself how many years in government Labour have been in those 100 years?) i am referring to the fact that Labour's prominence in Wales is down to achieving the most votes. Not scaremongering because Plaid wont be the good socialist they are and denounce the idea of going into government with Thatcherite tories.

 
At 2:55 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has Carwyn really taken a break from the pie eating and crap pledge-making to really scre the Labour campaign? Looks like! Will he ever pant his way to the top job now? Unlikely!

How about this for your a new pledge, mate? 'I will not try and brief journalists about things that I'm too fat and lazy to understand'?

 
At 2:56 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

RhonddaDai is great - a touchy angry little man! Welcome. You can ask your boss Leighton Andrews what it was changed his mind from the old LIB Dem days of thinking PR and coailitions were great to attacking PR and coalitions today.
Nothing to do with power has it? I mean one-party rule-style power? and the fear of losing it?
Surely not...
And please keep your temper. This is a civilised blog. Or get better tranquilisers - yours obviously start to wear offf around lunchtime.
dave R

 
At 2:59 pm, Anonymous der said...

Marcusian,
You have now moved the goal-post.

Thatcherite Tories! Didn't Labour stick to the same spending plans as Thatcherite Tories as you say. I won't ever vote Tory....but can I remind you, that Thatcher left office many years ago. You are scaremongering again! Anyway, it seems to me that Labour is quite willing to use the votes of these Tories when it suites them. Hyporcrites all the way.

 
At 3:11 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Labour have spent far more than Thatcher have...They may have still not altered the neo-liberal reforms of Thatcher in some ways, but tell me what Party is offering a totally clean break from Neo-Liberalism apart from the Socialists and the Communists?


Tell me what part of thatcherism are the Welsh tories opposed to? Even she spoke about climate change!

Thatcherite tories doesnt refer to the period she was in office, but the values and beliefs behind it. Much like 'Bennite', 'Bevanite', 'Blairite' socialists.

 
At 3:11 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Prominent Labour figures have said they are considering a deal with Plaid rather than the Liberal Democrats."

quote from original BBC report - there is more than one source therefore. A key point which the debate thus far seems to have missed.

 
At 3:17 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Its a debate that should have taken place but was stifled by Plaid's dogged insistence on allowing the possibility for a Plaid/Tory coalition, that is my view. Plaid have known from the start that they will have to enter a coalition to gain any power, why did they choose the tories?

Just say 'Our principled position is that we couldnt go into any sort of arrangement with the tories'. Labour did, you dont see anyone talk of a Labour/Tory coalition do you?

If that had occurred then the debate would have been about either a Lab-Lib, or Lab-Plaid coaltion realistically.

 
At 3:18 pm, Blogger Pads said...

Every government spends "record levels" on the NHS, schools etc. Even Thatcher.

Ever heard of inflation?

 
At 3:18 pm, Blogger Pads said...

If Labour rule out deals with the Tories and Plaid, that would leave the Lib Dems in a very strong barganing position. Mike German might even ask for the Pier Head building as his office.

 
At 3:19 pm, Blogger bethan said...

Leighton Andrews would want to say that it isn't a senior labour figure because he would hate the idea of going in to coalition with Plaid. I don't think the BBC would consider printing such a story if these sources were not true, or if they were minor players within the Labour party. It's clear that there are divides in Labour, and this story today only highlights that division.

 
At 3:21 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"Blammerbell - you're in danger of losing you're well-earned impartiality with yr comments on this one!"

Err, I don't quite see how. I'm not stating a preference one way or another. I'm just saying that after all the volleying back and forth the situation remains that Labour have ruled out a 'coalition' but not a deal.

Now ask yourself which Labour party figures would prefer to trumpet the anti-Plaid 'Tories are the main threat' line, and which Labour party figures would prefer to put out feelers about a possible deal with Plaid Cymru?

Marcus, you know full well that the VPGT line is now weakened, principally because the P or the T will simply say, 'well what about VPGL?'

 
At 3:26 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

It's clear that there are divides in Labour, and this story today only highlights that division.

bethan,

Thats a bit rich, tell me, how does Adam Price feel about a tory/plaid coalition?

Whats your opinion on Leanne Wood's quote about the tories?

Are you split with the leadership of your party because in your words 'it would be very difficult to see how I could share values with the tories'?

No its not a split, its a difference in opinion between different people in the party on coalition issues. Nice try though!

 
At 3:31 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Hey ord I never said you were a politicia, you defended them and I was just curious. If you didn't give a t##s then why comment on it then.


Ooh, touchy! Sorry, I thought we all had freedom of speach...or was that another thing Welsh Labour cut?

Plaid have known from the start that they will have to enter a coalition to gain any power

As will Labour. I guess that makes everyone other than Labour realists then.

Nice to see so many Labourites out today. I wonder what the special occasion could possibly be (heh heh)

 
At 3:38 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good to see Peter Vain dropping another clanger in an interview by stating that Labour is out of touch with the electorate. Is he trying to tell Rhodri something? It seems that for Vain the Labour's deputy leadership is more important than Labour's campaign in the assembly election.

 
At 3:41 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

"Marcus, you know full well that the VPGT line is now weakened, principally because the P or the T will simply say, 'well what about VPGL?'"

Cieran, i dont see how. Also the key point is that if you are voting for a socialist Plaid and increasing the chances of getting thatcherite tories into power then it is far more of a problem than if you vote Plaid and get a Labour government. Ultimately Plaid know that people will vote against them because they wont rule out the tories, so now they are trying to blame Labour because they wont commit to a Plaid/Labour coalition.


The better Plaid does, the more appetite they will have to form a rainbow coalition that is non-Labour. All their attacks have been aimed at ousting Labour, the only way to do this is to enter a non-Labour coalition. If you vote Labour, then you will get Labour and not tory.


I think people forget here, Labour will have near double the votes of any other party, i would argue that would give them the right to call a few shots after the election. They have ruled out a coalition as opposed to a deal because they will have far more of a mandate to govern than any of the other parties. If the tories come second, then what cards do Plaid have to play? SWEET FA...Labour still have the trump card of actually being able to give the lib dems or plaid some semblance of power. They have earned that card through the ballot box.

I think another thing that is missed is that many choose between Labour and Plaid, ie a vote for either one is probably a vote lost for the other. Plaid will not take enough votes off Labour to beat Labour, but Plaid may well take enough votes off Labour to get tories into power...Do you dispute that??? Essentially Plaid are talking up their centre-left credentials to appeal to disenfranchised Labour supporters, not Monmouth mono-lingual tories. Plaid's gains will be at Labour's expense, and thus decreases the chance of Labour forming a majority, which then increases coalition chances, and increases the chance of the tories being part of the coalition equation.

 
At 3:43 pm, Anonymous der said...

Marcusian,

Why you asking me all these questions about the Tories? I am not even a Tory voter.

I can tell you though that Labour have courted big money. Have you heard of the cash for peerages saga? Isn't Mittal (sp) a donor? Isn't he and similar foreign billionaires provided a tax haven in the UK. Doesn't seem very socialist to me? Maybe you can explain.....?

Labour? Tories? Doesn't seem to be much difference to me......

 
At 4:06 pm, Blogger Ted Jones said...

"Its a debate that should have taken place but was stifled by Plaid's dogged insistence on allowing the possibility for a Plaid/Tory coalition, that is my view. Plaid have known from the start that they will have to enter a coalition to gain any power, why did they choose the tories?"

hold on - it's Labour who have wanted to run this election on coalitions cause they want to fight a negative campaign as they have nothing positive to offer!

Serves them right that this has come back to bite them for trying to base the whole paramaters of the election campaign on a lie.

 
At 4:12 pm, Blogger bethan said...

marcus says-
'No its not a split, its a difference in opinion between different people in the party on coalition issues. Nice try though!'

I didn't say there was a split in the Labour party, I said division which is very different marcus.

I answered your question with regards Leanne Wood.

I am merely making the point that while Labour always try and take the moral highground on this issue by pedalling the VPGT agenda, that this today shows that it's not all rosy in Labour HQ!

 
At 5:49 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So has Vaughan Roderick mentioned that he is, or at least was, a member of the Labour party?

Puts a whole new spin on things doesnt it...

 
At 5:57 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Does it?

 
At 6:37 pm, Blogger Ian said...

This situation was bound to happen. When you go into an election campaign with your main campaign theme being, "Don't vote for them cos you'll get the Tories", you can't expect to get way with it for weeks on end without someone in the party questioning what's going on.

I made this point to the Arfon Labour candidate on his blog when he did his cheap publicity stunt at our conference, but it went straight over his head.

The journalists have sussed Labour out and the electorate are also starting to smell a rat. With little over a week to go, Labour have left it too late to turn things round and I suspect that the 'senior source' was someone desperate to avoid what's coming their way on May 3rd.

Of course, Labour could prove us all wrong and get 31 seats, but having seen their vacuous manifesto, I will weep for Wales if they do.

 
At 7:13 pm, Blogger Che Grav-ara said...

Marcusian said....
"What is false about 'Vote Labour for a Labour led government'? Explain how Labour would be a minor party in any coalition?"

Because Labour know they wont get a full government. They currently have a minority administration and are predicted to lose seats by anyone who has any political knowledge. The number could be as low as 24. As a result there will clearly be a coalition if Labour want to reatin power. Ips facto...voting Labour will not get a labour governmnet but a labour coalition government if they are to retain power. This story today only confirms that! Just because they would not be the minority coalition partner doesnt mean that they would have a Labour government. or are you suggesting that a rainbow coalition would mean a vote plaid get plaid government as plaid would be the majority party? The political naievety of your arguments are shocking. Knee jerk reactions have been coming all day from the Labour party!

 
At 7:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Explain to me how Labour would lose seats and not pick up regional list seats? Your presumption that Labour would get 24 seats is being made without taking into consideration the high likelihood of Labour picking up list seats in place of those that they’ve lost.

In Mid and West Wales, for example, if Labour were to lose one seat – then that loss would be negated with gaining a regional list seat.

Come on guys – let’s put some political intelligence to work here!

 
At 8:09 pm, Blogger Che Grav-ara said...

Fine but Labour will lose far more constituency seats than those gained regionally. They will gain a list seat by losing llanelli to plaid but will also lose Carmarthen West and Preseli Pembrokeshire but all accounts. the figures being banded about are generally the thinking of most political analysts and internal labour sources

 
At 9:43 pm, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Explain to me how Labour would lose seats and not pick up regional list seats? Your presumption that Labour would get 24 seats is being made without taking into consideration the high likelihood of Labour picking up list seats in place of those that they’ve lost.


Doesn't matter. 24 is the best total Labour can hope for.

 
At 10:08 pm, Blogger David Thomas said...

Lots of words here - let me offer a picture or at least an analogy. In a Lib-Lab coalition the Liberals would be the spare wheel to keep Labour's clapped out banger on the road. In a Plaid-Lab "coalition" Plaid would be the steering wheel, not the spare wheel, equal partners not just useful votes.

 
At 10:23 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"In a Plaid-Lab "coalition" Plaid would be the steering wheel, not the spare wheel, equal partners not just useful votes."

No you wouldn't. Based on the model we've heard suggested today you'd be the passenger seat. Up at the front but essentially being taken for a ride while the driver ignores your futile attempts to navigate.

 
At 9:08 am, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

It's a week before the election. Who cares what Labour say right now. Let's wait until the results start streaming in in the early hours of May 4th and then see what we've got, eh?

I suspect that this stuff is of far more interest to the armchair pundits on here than people actually walking the streets.

How could Labour lose 5 seats?
Easy.

North Wales Labour lose Conwy and Clwyd West, gain one on list = -1

Mid&West Wales: Labour lose Preseli Pembs, Carmarthen West and Llanelli, gain one on list = -2

SW Central: Labour lose Cdf North and Vale of Glamorgan, no gain on list = -2

Hardly rocket science.

 
At 9:48 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

(Another) Anonymous said...

"So has Vaughan Roderick mentioned that he is, or at least was, a member of the Labour party?

Puts a whole new spin on things doesnt it..."

I don't know if this true (although I'd be surprised). I do now as a cast iron fact that he used to be an active member of Plaid Cymru. I don't know what spin that puts on things but it is at least accurate.

 
At 10:21 am, Anonymous Steve Coogan said...

Vaughn Roderick has never been a Labour supporter or member, was both a Plaid candidate and member. Don't think it adds much to the story, but it's true.

 
At 11:32 am, Anonymous Vaughan Roderick said...

For the record, Steve, I have never been a candidate for Plaid or any other party and I have not been a member of any political party for over thirty years. Our story is correct. Yours isn't.

 
At 2:43 pm, Anonymous Rhian Thomas said...

Vaughn - so your not a Nationalist? And have never been a member? There are plenty of journos who, quite rightly, have political views - Labour, Lib take your pic. But you seem to suggest that you've never been a Plaid supporter - that's not true, is it?

 

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