Auf Wiedersehen Mike
Sunday, May 06, 2007
I am no Peter Snow. But I shall now use simple statistics to demonstrate how Mike German has fared as Liberal Democrat leader since 1999. His days 1999 6 seats
2003 6 (=)
2007 6 (=)
On a graph, that performance would look something like this: -------------------------------------------------------------------
It bears more than a passing resemblance to a flat line. That's why we call it flatlining.
In general, politicians like this line to go up. That means they are making progress. If the line doesn't go up, that means they are not making progress. If they are not making progress, people start looking around for alternatives. For the Welsh Lib Dems, the search has begun.
As you can tell from the numbers above, the Lib Dems only have six assembly members. Three of them are agitating for a change of leader, one of them is keeping quiet (because she's the person they are agitating on behalf), another is staying loyal to Mike German and the last one is Mike German. If that's an endorsement, it's ringing about as loudly as a lonely castanet. The message is, as the photo suggests, that the Lib Dems under Mike German are a little bit lost.
One of the agitators, Peter Black, has admitted that he "questioned Mike German's leadership in the AM Group and the National Executive." It is his wish that these objections are now on the record in public. He has also quoted uncritically on his blog from an article which states that "after three campaigns at the helm, Mike German can’t avoid responsibility."
Indeed, in three campaigns, Mike German has tallied 666. The omens are not good. At this rate, I'd be surprised if he survives the lunchtime politics programmes.
1240 UPDATE: Peter Black has just called for a leadership contest. Speaking on the BBC's Politics Show (reinforced by a blog post on the same subject) he said that if Mike German wants to take the party forward he'd have to win a vote. He also stated that he wanted the Lib Dems to be in opposition for the next assembly term, the precise opposite of what Mike German has been saying for the past weeks and months.
Labels: leadership, Mike German, Peter Black, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:16 am,
22 Comments:
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At 2:39 am,
said...
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Ah, the (now) old six six six line from S4C's election night coverage...which no doubt we will see various times between now and Mike's departure, or possibly im the Senedd various times until 2011. But where will Mike go?
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At 7:02 am,
said...
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He could join a credit card company as a rep!
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At 8:30 am,
Dr. Mark L. Woods said...
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He's well-dressed and seems to be unfazed, from his level of on screen energy. Do these just mask good mechanisms of denial or optimism?
He occasionally reminds me of an announcer in a washing detergent commerical . . . -
At 9:17 am,
said...
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I like Kirsty, she is ever so slightly mad though.
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At 9:47 am,
said...
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Look its going to be a Lib Dem / Labour coalition for at least two years until Rhodri steps down. Then all hell will break loose.
Mike German will be forced out after forging the coalition.
Plaid and Tories will stalk each other vying to bring down the coalition.
Plaid wilhave problems with DET beignPresiding Oficer but who will be willing to supply a deputy? -
At 11:22 am,
Ian James Johnson said...
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I thought that under the new rules if the Presiding Officer was from the 'opposition' then the Deputy had to be from the 'government' to balance it out (and, therefore, vice versa as well).
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At 11:23 am,
Blamerbell said...
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Sanddef, as you know I wasn't able to watch S4C's election coverage so I can't help that, I'm afraid. Great minds, eh?
I'm sure, Mark (and anon), that if he's reading he'd be delighted to know there are options available:) I'm not sure any politician could sell 'whiter than white' with any conviction though..
As for anon 0947, don't get ahead of yourself. Need to save something to write about tomorrow:) -
At 11:23 am,
Ian James Johnson said...
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It's funny that less than a week ago everyone was saying that Mike German had been the best performing of the leaders in Sunday's tv debate.
I guess a week is a long time in politics... -
At 11:24 am,
Blamerbell said...
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You're right Ian. But hold your fire. Let's deal with this German first.
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At 11:26 am,
Blamerbell said...
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Indeed, I put him joint first on performance with IWJ. I don't think he can be criticised for that.
The problem was with the manifesto and election strategy. Also, there are noises from Lib Dem camp that activists (with the exception of Ceredigion of course) weren't given enough support.
This time around, it has to be said the national agenda was ruled by Plaid with Labour playing a frantic game of catch up. -
At 11:27 am,
said...
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has anyone written a book on former libs lib/dem leaders, and what happens to them?
the non chattering classes observers of the campaign saw german as one of the best, albeit without a decent party behind him. indeed it was said by some leading lib/dems.
it is the quality of lib/dem am's we should be looking at, not the leader! -
At 11:28 am,
said...
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has anyone written a book on former libs lib/dem leaders, and what happens to them?
the non chattering classes observers of the campaign saw german as one of the best, albeit without a decent party behind him. indeed it was said by some leading lib/dems.
it is the quality of lib/dem am's we should be looking at, not the leader! -
At 11:35 am,
ganesh family said...
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On Sunday Mike German was by miles the best, during the campaign he did not have the best from his troops I thought Kirsty was well off the radar and Lembit was certainly no help.
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At 12:17 pm,
said...
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dowlais twp said...
"On Sunday Mike German was by miles the best, during the campaign he did not have the best from his troops I thought Kirsty was well off the radar and Lembit was certainly no help. "
Yet the welsh Lib/Dems do not see this!
German is their best asset. His TV appearances during the campaign was a huge vote catcher for them.
Yet, there they go again. Making a mess of how their party is run. They never learn from mistakes, and maybe it's to late for them now as they cannot attract the right caliber of candidates.
Look at Ming? Why is he there anyway when there was the other one was brilliant apart? The other parties in Westminster are full of alcoholics,
fornicators and liars;-p yet the lib>dems jump in to make a clean sweep at the top at the first sneeze of a cold.
When they grow up to be part of the 21st century then maybe they will be taken seriously as a modern political party and not a relic from the past. -
At 1:20 pm,
Ian James Johnson said...
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Also, there are noises from Lib Dem camp that activists (with the exception of Ceredigion of course) weren't given enough support.
According to Vaughan Roderick's blog, their man in London was responsible for more than 2.2 million leaflets. Exactly how much more support does a campaign require?! -
At 1:22 pm,
Blamerbell said...
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2.2 million bits of paper saying only the Lib Dems can win here. Well, what was the point of that?
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At 1:46 pm,
Unknown said...
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But the 2.2 million leaflets were fairly distributed between Montgomeryshire, Brecon & Radnor and Cardiff Central, so they must have worked.....
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At 4:03 pm,
said...
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Has anyone forgotten German's role at the WJEC? It would pay some of German's fan club to talk some of the people who uncovered what German had been up to. Go to the archives of the Mirror and be educated.
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At 4:14 pm,
said...
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Has anyone forgotten German's role at the WJEC? It would pay some of German's fan club to talk some of the people who uncovered what German had been up to. Go to the archives of the Mirror and be educated.
Or see what was never investigated check back to the source of the complaint. I remember that only so many charges were taken up We do have freedom of access to information now -
At 4:44 pm,
said...
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mike is articulate, measured and confident, and in having a clear sense of the big picture is what being a leader is all about.
none of the pre-election media coverage ever came close to raising questions about mike's leadership. somehow, only now, after narrowly missing out on a SW central list seat are the knives out...
this furore is all happening a bit too quickly and far too knee-jerk. -
At 6:05 pm,
said...
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Will the guy that seems to want to rake up Mike German's alleged past re: WJEC please give us the link that said that he was cleared of that.
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At 6:24 am,
said...
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He wasn't cleared of anything. The CPS said that there was insufficient evidence to prosecute which is slightly different. The decision was taken in York and we all know leadng Lib Dems tie to rubbish the WJEC at the time. The police did agree with this and neither did the accountancy firm brought in by the WJEC. If he was innocent why did he repay petrol credit card receipts from trips in France to the house he owned with the pouting Randerson when the WJEC threatened to take him to county court to reclaim the money. You might also ask him why he used a company credit card to buy Indian takeaways, gas bottles and wine from Oddbins in Roath.It was also used for shopping in Naples . Does anone know what Fratelli Cimino sells?
