German Retriever
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
On Saturday afternoon Mike German pulled the Lib Dems back from the brink as they voted overwhelmingly in favour of sharing power with Plaid and the Conservatives. But will he be the Golden Shepherd of this mongrel coalition project? Or will his party kick him out before he gets his hands on that ministerial Mondeo?
The Lib Dem
What's certain is that there are now only eleven months left before there must be a leadership election. If Plaid green light the rainbow coalition, there may be a case for holding the contest before they enter government. After all, they'd be voting for Deputy First Minister as well as party leader.
With that in mind, here's a bit of half-term hwyl. The very first Blamerbell Briefs opinion poll.
RESULT:
It's a resounding victory for Wil Cwac Cwac's mute little brother, Won't. Unusually for a Lib Dem, he won't duck the issue. Oh dear.
First of the serious contenders, though, was Kirsty Williams. Despite the somewhat unscientific nature of this poll it seems she still has her supporters after last week's debacle. Mike German would push her all the way, however, while Jenny Randerson would be in with a shout. Mick Bates is out of it and Peter Black voted for himself 9 times.
Labels: leadership, Mike German, opinion poll, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:10 pm,
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The final twist?
Thursday, May 24, 2007
You never quite know what you're going to get with Lib Dem activists.
Yesterday, their national executive turned its back on a coalition document which would have given them PR in local government and the free toothbrushes they so desperately craved. You can now see that document HERE or you can download your own copy HERE.
But it seems some of them haven't give up the fight. They're hoping to call a special conference on Saturday after all. I'm told activists are collecting signatures to force a meeting.
So could there be a final twist in this post-election political farce?
Maybe. But it will most likely be a twist of the knife in their leader's back - a public stage upon which to to complete the extraordinary self-destruction of the Liberal Democrats over the past three weeks.
UPDATE: Plaid confirm plenary will go ahead tomorrow as planned. Rhodri Morgan will become first minister and the inquest will begin.
UPDATE: Believe it or not I actually have things to do today. But I can't resist dipping into the document now and again to have a peep at what might have been.
The first little gem: "xii. We will keep adult neuro-surgery services in Swansea."
Oh dear. Wasn't that Peter Black's personal crusade during the election campaign?
UPDATE: Conference is on. This from the Lib Dems:
Elgan Morgan, Chair of Conference Committee, said:
"The Chief Executive has today received requests from 20 conference representatives to go ahead with a special conference to discuss the document negotiated with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives in the Assembly. Under the party's rules, it is now up to conference committee to arrange such a conference. Given that Saturday is already in diaries, I have decided that special conference will go ahead this Saturday at the Metropole Hotel, Llandrindod Wells. Starting at 10.30am."
So, as things stand: Rhodri Morgan will become first minister tomorrow. He will lead a minority Labour administration - there is no deal with Plaid Cymru. The Lib Dems will have a special conference on Saturday regardless. But it seems the only thing they've got to discuss is themselves.
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Peter Black, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:31 pm,
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Shafted!
It's no secret that the Lib Dems' six AMs don't get on. Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.
This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.
The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way politics is conducted in Wales has been scuppered by just one unelected officer on an internal Lib Dem council.
The consequences are enormous. Not only is Mike German's leadership now under severe threat but people will be left wondering, a la Simon Jenkins, what on earth are the Lib Dems for?
They've turned their noses up at the offer of PR in local government, which is the one big thing that set them apart. Now, it seems, they'd rather snipe from the sidelines than implement their own policies. No doubt we'll be hearing very soon what was lined up in the coalition document. It is certain, however, to make their election promise of maximum votes for maximum Lib Dem policies completely redundant.
On hospital reconfiguration, reducing class sizes and making the green switch they've turned down the chance to have it their own way.
Peter Black tells me that "in the end the party did not have the stomach for coalition." The rationale is that they can reinvent in opposition. But it is going to be stupendously difficult.
Because whatever government eventually takes power in Cardiff Bay, the Lib Dems will be coalition partners by proxy. By bailing out, they've left few alternatives and very little time. The government's mistakes will be the Lib Dems' mistakes because they engineered the circumstances which put them there.
They are, quite frankly, knee deep in it. To be an effective opposition, you must be free to criticise the government. But every time the Lib Dems open their mouths, the other parties will be quick to remind them that they had their chance and blew it.
Yesterday afternoon, the rainbow coalition document came back from its civil service going over - as if a sign was needed about how advanced the process had become.
The Plaid-Labour document, by contrast, never made it out of Helen Mary Jones' handbag. By committing to the rainbow route, Ieuan was obviously keen to shed his wobble. But had he adopted the more cautious approach of the 'feisty foursome' the next few hours might not be such a scramble.
It seems pretty clear that a Plaid-Tory deal is a non-starter. I put this to Nick Bourne on Tuesday and he laughed it off.
So, Plaid and Labour are left with barely 48 hours to cobble together a programme of government for Wales. And thanks to Labour, there's a 28-page document sitting there ready to go. Who knows, the politicians might finally find something to agree about.
Labels: Conservatives, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:51 am,
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Auf Wiedersehen Mike
Sunday, May 06, 2007
I am no Peter Snow. But I shall now use simple statistics to demonstrate how Mike German has fared as Liberal Democrat leader since 1999. His days 1999 6 seats
2003 6 (=)
2007 6 (=)
On a graph, that performance would look something like this: -------------------------------------------------------------------
It bears more than a passing resemblance to a flat line. That's why we call it flatlining.
In general, politicians like this line to go up. That means they are making progress. If the line doesn't go up, that means they are not making progress. If they are not making progress, people start looking around for alternatives. For the Welsh Lib Dems, the search has begun.
As you can tell from the numbers above, the Lib Dems only have six assembly members. Three of them are agitating for a change of leader, one of them is keeping quiet (because she's the person they are agitating on behalf), another is staying loyal to Mike German and the last one is Mike German. If that's an endorsement, it's ringing about as loudly as a lonely castanet. The message is, as the photo suggests, that the Lib Dems under Mike German are a little bit lost.
One of the agitators, Peter Black, has admitted that he "questioned Mike German's leadership in the AM Group and the National Executive." It is his wish that these objections are now on the record in public. He has also quoted uncritically on his blog from an article which states that "after three campaigns at the helm, Mike German can’t avoid responsibility."
Indeed, in three campaigns, Mike German has tallied 666. The omens are not good. At this rate, I'd be surprised if he survives the lunchtime politics programmes.
1240 UPDATE: Peter Black has just called for a leadership contest. Speaking on the BBC's Politics Show (reinforced by a blog post on the same subject) he said that if Mike German wants to take the party forward he'd have to win a vote. He also stated that he wanted the Lib Dems to be in opposition for the next assembly term, the precise opposite of what Mike German has been saying for the past weeks and months.
Labels: leadership, Mike German, Peter Black, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:16 am,
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101 ways to prop up a 'failed Labour administration'*
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Peter Black, newly re-elected Lib Dem AM for South Wales West, knows exactly what he is doing.
Yesterday's blog post got the ball rolling. 'It is clear that we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think,' he wrote. For 'radical re-think' read 'leadership contest,' I responded. He had opportunities to deny this both on my blog and on Radio Wales. He chose not to do so.
And today, he's at it again: 'My instincts are that the Welsh Liberal Democrats do not have to be the deal-makers in this process. We have our own issues to sort out first around where we are going as a party and what sort of image we project to the Welsh public.'
It's now acknowledged that the leaders of Lib Dem councils are not keen on a Lab-Lib pact. Their long-term strategy is based on undermining Labour, not propping it up. In addition, one third of the Lib Dem assembly group have now spoken out against a Labour coalition. OK, so that only adds Eleanor Burnham to the mix (so far), but that's the Lib Dems' fault for only getting six assembly members. When the numbers are this small the fractions are more significant.
These prominent dissenting voices make a coalition with Labour increasingly unlikely. It was also the least preferred option of people quizzed in the little-reported BBC election night poll.
So, where does that leave Welsh governance? Heading towards either a rainbow coalition or a Plaid/Labour agreement, I guess. And as I trawled through the archived articles of the election period, I came across this quotation from Plaid, time and time again: 'We would not go into coalition under a Conservative First Minister and we would not prop up a Labour Government either.'
Only once did a caveat pop up. And it popped up as Ieuan Wyn Jones and Matt Withers were licking the froth off their coffee spoons in Cardiff Bay. 'We wouldn't prop up a Labour government simply by agreeing on minor issues,' said IWJ as a spot of cappucino foam inadvertantly perched itself on the end of his nose.
I would've thought, then, that working out what constitutes a major issue would have been a priority for the new Plaid group as it met for the first time yesterday.
*-100
Labels: coalition, Government, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labour, Peter Black, Plaid Cymru, politics, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:53 pm,
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Honest John: Bates passes clear yellow water
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
The second politician to rise to Blamerbell's Honest John challenge is the Lib Dems' Mick Bates. The bar has been set relatively high after the performance of the Conservatives' Jonathan Morgan.'Chwarae teg (Fair play) to JM for a pretty clear set of answers' said Aran, while Plaid-supporting Sanddef said he'd even consider voting for him under the right conditions. Valleys Mam was less impressed, arguing that people would always remember the way the Tories treated the miners.
Today's
But Mick is evidently campaigning hard to hang on. That's the only explanation I can come up with for the monosyllabic replies he has given to your questions. So rather than present this one in a Q+A style I'll just tell you what he thinks as concisely as possible...
Mick believes 31 seats would be a success for the Lib Dems in this election. He thinks alcoholism and drug dependency are illnesses to be cured and not offences. He works very closely with the Lib Dems at Westminster, but he won't tell us if there's any clear yellow water between them. Some people drink their own clear yellow water, apparently it's good for your health.
Also good for your health is laughter. So it's just as well Mick thinks his old rival Glyn Davies' attempt to smear his name is 'funny'. (I told you the answers were monosyllabic).
Mick talks to young people 'all the time'. This is to get them more interested in politics. He doesn't tell us if it's working or not but I met a young Lib Dem activist in the street the other day and there was real fatigue in his eyes. I think he'd been got at.
When Mick isn't talking to young people (which of course is never) he's listening to his favourite album, Dark Side of the Moon, or plotting a revolution of the Welsh political media. He will achieve this by 'sending out more Focuses'. Because the world needs more Focuses.
Mick's political hero is Lloyd George. Mick subtitles this answer 'Visionary for Wales', which sounds like a second-draft of the Lib Dem manifesto. In which you will read, incidentally, that Lib Dems think that the Welsh language should have official status. Mick agrees and also believes that people should have the right to services in and the right to work through the Welsh language.
Finally, Mick would like to see the assembly develop in future by having 'less strategies and more action'. The word 'strategy' appears 36 times in the Liberal Democrat manifesto.
So, there we are. Are you satisfied or have you lost control of your saliva glands with rage? Tomorrow: Labour's Huw Lewis.
Labels: honest john, Mick Bates, Montgomeryshire, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:08 pm,
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German's scummy feet and Black's naughty blindfold
Sunday, April 15, 2007
The BBC reliably inform us that Welsh Lib Dem leader Mike German is not recognised by 94% of the electorate. And his cause is certainly not helped by apparent anonymity in the online world, particulary in a Google image search. While the other party chiefs appear as the very first result, Mike German is usurped by this picture of a pair of manky feet.
It seems, if Google searches are anything to go by, the Lib Dems literally have an image problem. South Wales West AM Peter Black only just scrapes it into the top 20 results for his name. Confusingly, a blindfolded chap wearing Lib Dem gold and bearing more than a passing resemblance to the blogging Mr Black scores higher in the search.Worse still, when Peter finally makes an appearance, his eyes are half-closed and he's got his hands shoved up a stuffed animal.
Labels: Google, image, Mike German, Peter Black, Welsh Assembly, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:35 am,
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Vote for the Wilsh Liberol Demoncrats
Sunday, April 08, 2007
The pirty must lakely to be in guvernmunt after May 3rd are heving dificulty with they're spilling. Duznt exacly inspire confidens...On another note, (everyone else has blogged about it so I suppose I should mention it too)... further proof today that Lembit 'it's always sunny in Transylvania' Opik is an electoral liability, according to the Wales on Sunday. If I could intervene here: as a moderately young person I've heard nothing but praise for the under-fire Welsh Lib Dem leader emanating from the lager-splashed lips of my peers. What's the big deal? Last I heard the Lib Dems were branding themselves as a party for the yoof. So, as my mates would say, 'fair play innit'.
Labels: Cheeky Girls, Gabriela Irimia, Lembit Opik, manifesto, Matt Withers, spelling, Wales on Sunday, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 7:07 pm,
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Poll says Labour set for assembly election losses
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Polls aren't easy to come by in Welsh politics, so when they happen we all sit up and take note.
For geeks like me, this was the most eagerly awaited edition of ITV's Wales Tonight for a long time. And it began with the revelation that time had skipped forward 24 hours, 'Welcome to Friday's Wales Tonight' grinned the presenters.
Back in the real world where Thursday succeeds Wednesday and precedes Friday, today's poll from ITV Wales/NOP does nothing to change the general impression that Labour are going to struggle in the forthcoming assembly elections. Meanwhile, Plaid aren't seeing the boost they think their new professional operation warrants and the Lib Dems may make small gains. The Tories will be happiest this evening, as their percentage of the vote is predicted to increase quite heftily in both the constituency and regional ballot. The results in full:
Constituency %
Labour 36 (-4)
Plaid 20 (-1)
Con 23 (+3)
Lib Dem 15 (+1)
Others 6
Regional %
Labour 35 (-2)
Plaid 20 (=)
Con 24 (+5)
Lib Dem 15 (+2)
Others 5
ITV Wales optimistically translated this into seats, with Labour losing four and the Tories gaining three. This election, however, is so finely balanced that these predictions are impossible to make. Constituency seats depend on a handful of votes in a few key marginals. These in turn have an enormous impact on the distribution of the regional seats.
Conclusion: bad news for Labour but the other parties should look at these results with a huge pinch of salt.
UPDATE: With Labour keeping schtum on their manifesto until Tuesday, it was with great interest that I listened to Jane Hutt on ITV's Wales Decides earlier tonight. Given 30 seconds to sum up why people should vote for her party in May's election she said Labour would be fighting this election on its record in government: 'we will keep free prescriptions, keep free bus passes, keep free swimming pools...' Not a single policy proposal. Not a single pledge. One begins to wonder if they'll bother to publish a manifesto at all when an homage to Rhodri Morgan would happily suffice:)
Labels: ITV Wales, Plaid Cymru, poll, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 6:12 pm,
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Liberal Democrat jokes
On the day the Welsh Lib Dems launched their manifesto (it's 60 pages long so I'll come back to that), here's something I pinched from BBC Scotland Political Editor's new blog:
There’s an old Liberal Democrat joke. (No, not PR for Westminster - they’re serious about that.) It tells the tale of Lib Dems on a protest march - beards fluttering and sandals in synch, tramping proudly.
“What do we want?”, their leader yells. “The single transferable vote in multi member constituencies”, they chorus back.
“When do we want it?, bellows the boss. “In due course!”, they trill.
Made me chuckle:)
Anyone know of any other Lib Dem jokes?
Labels: jokes, manifesto, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:17 pm,
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Thanks, it's just what I've always wanted
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
With the Lib Dem manifesto appearing tomorrow - and Labour due to release theirs not long after that - the key battlegrounds for the assembly elections are starting to emerge. Top of the list is the Santa clause: who can steal your vote with the most enticing candy?
The choice so far is between a laptop, a light bulb and a toothbrush.
I wonder what Labour has up its sleeve - pack of fags, bag of crisps?
Labels: Labour, laptop, light bulbs, Plaid Cymru, toothbrush, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:48 pm,
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A policy a day keeps the bloggers away
Monday, April 02, 2007
Unless I've made a muck of my maths, today should be Lib Dem policy of the day number 93. And yet as far as I can tell, the last known outing for this gimmick/vote winner was on the 9th of March. Ideas seem to have run out at number 50.
What will happen to the backlog? Will we be treated to 74 in a row on May 3rd? Perhaps Mike German will deliver them all in a sort of Ulysses style monologue?
Meanwhile, Plaid candidates seem unable to even remember seven policies, never mind 100+. Still, if Mike German can do them all by memory I'll give him my vote. Full stop. But he has to tell us what they are first.
Labels: Mike German, policy a day, politics, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 5:10 pm,
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It's a landslide for Plaid Cymru
Saturday, March 31, 2007
If elections were won and lost on takeup of the social networking website Facebook, then Plaid would be the clear leaders. There are so far 144 members in the Plaid Cymru group and 38 members in its unofficial sister club. The Welsh Liberal Democrats muster only 28 members. But that's still 28 members more than Labour and the Conservatives, who don't seem to have joined the revolution yet.
And it's probably a good thing too. Facebook is for writing crap banter on your mates' walls. It's for stalking attractive women in American colleges. And it's for posting embarrassing photos of drunken misdemeanours.
Why is it that politicians have to come along with their fake hobbies and youth oriented soundbites to spoil it all?
Labels: facebook, Plaid Cymru, Welsh, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 9:50 am,
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Somebody save the Lib Dems!
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Concern is mounting for the well-being of the Welsh Liberal Democrat Party, missing for almost nine days.
They were last seen at the Richard Ley Development Centre in Swansea for their Spring Conference a week last Sunday. Police are said to be puzzled by a note left on their website, claiming that the conference is still the Lib Dems' 'top story'. They were alerted after a link to 'today's conference update' brought up information over a week old.
UK party leader, Sir Menzies Campbell, has issued an impassioned plea for information. He said: "Conferences are only supposed to last two or three days. Either the Welsh Lib Dems are still in Swansea, frantically finalising plans for a policy a second between now and the election, or something terrible has happened."
Conspiracy theories have already started to emerge, among them the suggestion that they've already teamed up with another party two months ahead of schedule.
Labels: Conference, Sir Menzies Campbell, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:42 am,
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Who's dreaming of more devolution?
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
It's 2011. Thanks to a campaign boosted by the internet and the huge popularity of his blog, Huw Lewis is First Minister of Wales.
Helen Mary Jones has bought a new scarf each day for the past decade and now has enough to be able to tie a double ribbon around the axis of the earth. She's also in charge of Plaid after Ieuan Wyn Jones started a sponsored walk without knowing where he was going. Somewhere, out there, he's still walking.
Kirsty Williams leads the Lib Dem team in the assembly and Lembit Opik is a judge on X-Factor.
Nick Bourne retired a millionaire after his shares in an energy efficient light bulb factory paid huge dividends and the Tories are resurgent under the direction of that chubby young councillor chap.
And Wales is preparing for a referendum on giving the assembly law-making powers. That's (sort of) the view of John Osmond, director of the Institute of Welsh Affairs.
But is it the view of the politicians? Plaid would be up for it, the Tories have hinted they'd go that way and Labour and the Lib Dems... well, who knows? Surely, though, this is a matter to clear up right now? If the parties are even contemplating a referendum on further devolution sometime before the next next election, they must say so. After all, 2011 might be some time away, but a vote now may very much determine what happens then.
Labels: Assembly Election 2007, devolution, Labour, Plaid Cymru, politics, referendum, Welsh John Osmond, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 10:53 am,
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Welsh Lib Dems go by car
Friday, March 09, 2007
Liberal Democrats like to tell us that when they dream, they dream in green: no to nuclear, yes to renewables and recycling, give us your potato peelings and we'll compost it etc.So, it's surprising that they should organise their Welsh conference at a venue that's only reachable by car. There's not a single bus stop or railway station on the handy map they've provided to conference goers. Instead, it's a tangle of road instructions that are sure to confuse anyone crazy enough to cycle there. That rules out an appearance from David Cameron then:)
Labels: David Cameron, Ipswich 1-0 Swansea, Liberal Democrats, nuclear, Party conference, recycling, renewable energy, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:32 am,
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Lost property: 123 Lib Dem policies
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
So, what is today's Lib Dem policy? Any ideas? No, me neither.
Back in January, the Welsh Lib Dems said they'd be announcing a policy a day in the run up to the Welsh Assembly Election on May 3rd. That's something in the region of 123 policies.
But what are they? And just as importantly, where are they?
Take a peep at the Welsh Lib Dem home page and there's no mention of it. Strange, most parties find it hard enough to promote one or two key policies, let alone pledges in excess of one hundred.
In fact, just about all that's memorable about the Lib Dem campaign so far is Mike German's suggestion that PR in local government might no longer be a deal-breaker for any coalition agreement.
The only way the Lib Dems could hope to get even a fraction of these policies recognised is by asking Eleanor Burnham to organise a military coup and taking control of state television. Perhaps, at their conference this weekend, they'll be a little less ambitious.
Labels: Adam Price, Conference, Eleanor Burnham, Mike German, policy a day, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:59 am,
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