Election 2007 in words and numbers
Friday, May 04, 2007
Scottish people seem to have got terribly confused between numbers and letters. Bless them. That's slowed things down up north.
Here in Wales, the picture is much clearer. And it looks something like this:
Constiuency gains
Labour:
Wrexham, from Independent
Plaid:
Aberconwy, from Labour
Llanelli, from Labour
Conservatives:
Cardiff North, from Labour
Clwyd West, from Labour
Preseli, from Labour
Carmarthen West, from Labour
Regional Vote
North Wales:
CON 2 (=), PC 1 (=), LD 1 (=)
South Wales East:
PC 2 (+1), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (=)
Mid & West Wales:
LAB 2 (+2), CON 1 (-2), PC 1 (=)
South Wales Central (probable):
PC 2 (=), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (+1)
South Wales Central (actual outcome):
PC 2 (=), CON 2 (=)
South Wales West (probable):
PC 2 (=), LD 1 (=), CON 1 (=)
Total seats:
LAB 26 (-3), PC 15 (+3), Con 12 (+1), LD 6 (=), IND 1 (-1)
* or PC 14, CON 13 depending on South Wales West regional.
Likely coalition:
Lab-Lib most likely. But the Lib Dems would have to sell this to their members. They may make demands Labour are unwilling to deliver. One possible outcome is that Jenny Randerson (Lib Dem, Cardiff Central) occupies the vacant Deputy Presiding Offcier's chair and that Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon) enters the cabinet along with the party leader Mike German. But Plaid haven't gone to all this effort for nothing. Don't rule out a move from them later today.
Labels: results, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:52 am,
30 Comments:
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At 10:36 am,
Cwlcymro said...
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" Plaid 15 (+2)"?? Surely that would be +3?
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At 10:56 am,
Deleted said...
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Shouldn't South Wales Central read:
C (-1) LD (+1) ? -
At 10:58 am,
said...
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Hmm.. off topic slightly, but the Scottish question...
Does this 'cock-up' skew the results if, purely hypothetically, Labour voters are slightly less bright than public/private/grammar school types who follow the celebrity endorsement/ 'we're strong enough for independent self government' line of the SNP ??
Could it, perish the thought, have worked in their favour ever so slightly ? Comparisons with the Florida situation should be avoided as there are fewer black people and felons in Scotland.. -
At 11:00 am,
Ian James Johnson said...
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I was under the impression at the marathon count in the Vale of Glamorgan that it would be two Plaid and two Tory on the South Wales Central list...or was I being fed some duff figures?
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At 11:00 am,
Bonheddwr said...
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Why is South Wales Central and South Wales West taking so long?
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At 11:00 am,
said...
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Have a nice kip?
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At 11:06 am,
Deleted said...
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I'm guessing the hold up in South Wales West is at the Bridgend part of the consituency, judging by how long they took to do Bridgend and Ogmore.
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At 11:08 am,
said...
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How long do they need to count those bloody votes?
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At 11:20 am,
said...
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alun pugh has lost no time taking down his blog. goodbye and good riddance.
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At 11:23 am,
Ian James Johnson said...
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South Wales Central should be ready about now.
The Vale of Glamorgan had four re-counts on the constituency ballot this morning so didn't start counting the regional ballot until about 7:30-8ish this morning (time became a blur after about 3am).
No idea how come it took them the same length of time to do one count in Bridgend..! -
At 11:37 am,
said...
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alun pugh has lost no time taking down his blog.
He had a blog? -
At 11:48 am,
Deleted said...
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A small aside (well the subject is election 2007)
have you heard about Shirley Bowes who stood in Sedgefield:
NEW TRIMDON AND TRIMDON GRANGE
Shirley Bowes (Con) 0
Amanda Marie Foster (BNP) 75
Lucy Hovvels (Lab) 441
Yep, she didn't even vote for herself! -
At 12:01 pm,
said...
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Why Jenny Randerson for DPO?
Are we taking for granted that PO will be DET?
Not so long ago there was talk that JR as PO would be a condition for coalition....
SO do not say PO MUST be an opposition AM.....so why the DPO job?
Do you think DET secured the PC/Tory/Labour vote? -
At 12:02 pm,
said...
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sorry SO as in Standing Orders
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At 12:27 pm,
Ian James Johnson said...
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BBC Wales confirms South Wales Central as being two Plaid and two Tory.
I can now sleep soundly!!! -
At 12:31 pm,
said...
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Even as someone who has been interested and watching closely the Welsh Election annd Politics my reaction to the results is so what !!
More Labour with the Lib Dems holding thier hands - Lord Save us fron Rhodri Morgan
and Mike German
I hear Australia is a nice place to live maybe i'll check it out
Ps How convenient for Labour in Scotland the systems went nuts - call me really cynical why dont't you we can't be upsetting Gordon now can we -
At 12:55 pm,
Deleted said...
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I notice Ian Titherington's blog has gone :(
Another fine candidate. -
At 1:02 pm,
said...
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Ordovicius said...
alun pugh has lost no time taking down his blog.
He had a blog?
Yes, it was his prime vehicle for slagging off Darren Millar. He obviously has no further use for it... and he may not want too many people to read it... -
At 1:49 pm,
said...
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Poor old Alan Pugh! I guess God got the last laugh!
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At 1:52 pm,
said...
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Hedd saith!
"Why is South Wales Central and South Wales West taking so long?"
Hope they don't have "hanging chads (sp)" problems? :) -
At 2:22 pm,
Deleted said...
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or hanging chavs ?
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At 2:49 pm,
Blamerbell said...
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"" Plaid 15 (+2)"?? Surely that would be +3?"
Yes.
"Shouldn't South Wales Central read:
C (-1) LD (+1)"
Yes but not anymore!
Sorry chaps, it was the end of a very long night.
"Why is South Wales Central and South Wales West taking so long?"
Dead right. Bridgen didn't start counting the regional vote properly until breakfast time apparently. Tsch!
"Even as someone who has been interested and watching closely the Welsh Election annd Politics my reaction to the results is so what !!"
Fear not, anon. That's been the reaction of almost everyone. The story of this election, as with the previous general election, may just be how the ruling party managed to corner so many seats with so few votes. -
At 3:11 pm,
Deleted said...
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You've got this thing about South Wales Central.
PC 2(=) CON 2(=) not CON 1 :-) -
At 3:14 pm,
said...
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Ok folks, not so sure what you political types think of it but I'm a bit of purist so it quite annoyed me that Alun Pugh wiped his blog, and then Ian Tetherington following suit.
It shows contempt for the conversation and even more content for the community. It's swinging my opinion on politician blogs, they really do see them as schtik and just another channel to put out their "message" probably thanks to many of the more dim witted ones thinking the BBC's engagement with blogs can be gamed. Don't Alun and the others that are sure to follow his lead realise that one day they may well be "the candidate for...." once again? Never mind Alun, there's always Google's cache that has a copy of all you've written.. So folks, help keep Alun honest and preserve his blog for posterity, if you read his posts of old go on a google hunt for their cached copy and stick t a screen shot of each on flickr. -
At 3:44 pm,
Bonheddwr said...
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Ciaran, have you got any inside info on South Wales West? I presumbe Bethan Jenkins, Alun Cairns and Peter Black will have no problems, but how close is it between Plaid and Con for the 4th?
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At 3:48 pm,
said...
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As of an hour ago they were still counting the Bridgend vote. As per last night, that authority seems inordinarily slow in gathering pieces of paper into neat piles.
I think I shall finally go to bed now, despite vowing to stay awake until every result was in. -
At 3:59 pm,
Blamerbell said...
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hedd, yes. See latest post.
Justin, I agree with you entirely.
If you write a book, you don't go and burn it straight afterwards. Those blogs provide records of a discourse between politicians and their electors which should be preserved for all to see. -
At 12:27 pm,
said...
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Is there somewhere publishing votes per each candidate plus detailed regional votes?
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At 1:35 pm,
Ian James Johnson said...
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The BBC have results for each constituency and the various regions (only the regions as a whole, not per constituency) at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/welshasssembly_english/html/region_99999.stm#C -
At 10:01 am,
said...
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personally, I would be delighted never to have to see Pugh or his vile blog ever again. however, it should be preserved, if only for future reference by the electoral commission. if they are reading this (which I bet they are), may I suggest that they download as many cached pages of it as they can.
