Election 2007 in words and numbers

Scottish people seem to have got terribly confused between numbers and letters. Bless them. That's slowed things down up north.

Here in Wales, the picture is much clearer. And it looks something like this:

Constiuency gains
Labour:
Wrexham, from Independent

Plaid:
Aberconwy, from Labour
Llanelli, from Labour

Conservatives:

Cardiff North, from Labour
Clwyd West, from Labour
Preseli, from Labour
Carmarthen West, from Labour

Regional Vote
North Wales:
CON 2 (=), PC 1 (=), LD 1 (=)

South Wales East:
PC 2 (+1), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (=)

Mid & West Wales:
LAB 2 (+2), CON 1 (-2), PC 1 (=)

South Wales Central (probable):

PC 2 (=), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (+1)


South Wales Central (actual outcome):
PC 2 (=), CON 2 (=)

South Wales West (probable):

PC 2 (=), LD 1 (=), CON 1 (=)

Total seats:
LAB 26 (-3), PC 15 (+3), Con 12 (+1), LD 6 (=), IND 1 (-1)
* or PC 14, CON 13 depending on South Wales West regional.

Likely coalition:
Lab-Lib most likely. But the Lib Dems would have to sell this to their members. They may make demands Labour are unwilling to deliver. One possible outcome is that Jenny Randerson (Lib Dem, Cardiff Central) occupies the vacant Deputy Presiding Offcier's chair and that Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon) enters the cabinet along with the party leader Mike German. But Plaid haven't gone to all this effort for nothing. Don't rule out a move from them later today.

Labels: , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 8:52 am,

30 Comments:

At 10:36 am, Blogger Guto said...

" Plaid 15 (+2)"?? Surely that would be +3?

 
At 10:56 am, Blogger Left Field said...

Shouldn't South Wales Central read:
C (-1) LD (+1) ?

 
At 10:58 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmm.. off topic slightly, but the Scottish question...

Does this 'cock-up' skew the results if, purely hypothetically, Labour voters are slightly less bright than public/private/grammar school types who follow the celebrity endorsement/ 'we're strong enough for independent self government' line of the SNP ??

Could it, perish the thought, have worked in their favour ever so slightly ? Comparisons with the Florida situation should be avoided as there are fewer black people and felons in Scotland..

 
At 11:00 am, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

I was under the impression at the marathon count in the Vale of Glamorgan that it would be two Plaid and two Tory on the South Wales Central list...or was I being fed some duff figures?

 
At 11:00 am, Blogger hedd said...

Why is South Wales Central and South Wales West taking so long?

 
At 11:00 am, Blogger Ordovicius said...

Have a nice kip?

 
At 11:06 am, Blogger Left Field said...

I'm guessing the hold up in South Wales West is at the Bridgend part of the consituency, judging by how long they took to do Bridgend and Ogmore.

 
At 11:08 am, Blogger Ordovicius said...

How long do they need to count those bloody votes?

 
At 11:20 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

alun pugh has lost no time taking down his blog. goodbye and good riddance.

 
At 11:23 am, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

South Wales Central should be ready about now.

The Vale of Glamorgan had four re-counts on the constituency ballot this morning so didn't start counting the regional ballot until about 7:30-8ish this morning (time became a blur after about 3am).

No idea how come it took them the same length of time to do one count in Bridgend..!

 
At 11:37 am, Blogger Ordovicius said...

alun pugh has lost no time taking down his blog.

He had a blog?

 
At 11:48 am, Blogger Left Field said...

A small aside (well the subject is election 2007)

have you heard about Shirley Bowes who stood in Sedgefield:

NEW TRIMDON AND TRIMDON GRANGE

Shirley Bowes (Con) 0
Amanda Marie Foster (BNP) 75
Lucy Hovvels (Lab) 441

Yep, she didn't even vote for herself!

 
At 12:01 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why Jenny Randerson for DPO?
Are we taking for granted that PO will be DET?

Not so long ago there was talk that JR as PO would be a condition for coalition....

SO do not say PO MUST be an opposition AM.....so why the DPO job?

Do you think DET secured the PC/Tory/Labour vote?

 
At 12:02 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

sorry SO as in Standing Orders

 
At 12:27 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

BBC Wales confirms South Wales Central as being two Plaid and two Tory.

I can now sleep soundly!!!

 
At 12:31 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Even as someone who has been interested and watching closely the Welsh Election annd Politics my reaction to the results is so what !!

More Labour with the Lib Dems holding thier hands - Lord Save us fron Rhodri Morgan
and Mike German

I hear Australia is a nice place to live maybe i'll check it out

Ps How convenient for Labour in Scotland the systems went nuts - call me really cynical why dont't you we can't be upsetting Gordon now can we

 
At 12:55 pm, Blogger Left Field said...

I notice Ian Titherington's blog has gone :(

Another fine candidate.

 
At 1:02 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ordovicius said...
alun pugh has lost no time taking down his blog.

He had a blog?

Yes, it was his prime vehicle for slagging off Darren Millar. He obviously has no further use for it... and he may not want too many people to read it...

 
At 1:49 pm, Blogger Mike Cridland said...

Poor old Alan Pugh! I guess God got the last laugh!

 
At 1:52 pm, Blogger Mike Cridland said...

Hedd saith!

"Why is South Wales Central and South Wales West taking so long?"

Hope they don't have "hanging chads (sp)" problems? :)

 
At 2:22 pm, Blogger Left Field said...

or hanging chavs ?

 
At 2:49 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"" Plaid 15 (+2)"?? Surely that would be +3?"

Yes.

"Shouldn't South Wales Central read:
C (-1) LD (+1)"
Yes but not anymore!

Sorry chaps, it was the end of a very long night.

"Why is South Wales Central and South Wales West taking so long?"

Dead right. Bridgen didn't start counting the regional vote properly until breakfast time apparently. Tsch!

"Even as someone who has been interested and watching closely the Welsh Election annd Politics my reaction to the results is so what !!"

Fear not, anon. That's been the reaction of almost everyone. The story of this election, as with the previous general election, may just be how the ruling party managed to corner so many seats with so few votes.

 
At 3:11 pm, Blogger Left Field said...

You've got this thing about South Wales Central.

PC 2(=) CON 2(=) not CON 1 :-)

 
At 3:14 pm, Anonymous Justin said...

Ok folks, not so sure what you political types think of it but I'm a bit of purist so it quite annoyed me that Alun Pugh wiped his blog, and then Ian Tetherington following suit.

It shows contempt for the conversation and even more content for the community. It's swinging my opinion on politician blogs, they really do see them as schtik and just another channel to put out their "message" probably thanks to many of the more dim witted ones thinking the BBC's engagement with blogs can be gamed. Don't Alun and the others that are sure to follow his lead realise that one day they may well be "the candidate for...." once again? Never mind Alun, there's always Google's cache that has a copy of all you've written.. So folks, help keep Alun honest and preserve his blog for posterity, if you read his posts of old go on a google hunt for their cached copy and stick t a screen shot of each on flickr.

 
At 3:44 pm, Blogger hedd said...

Ciaran, have you got any inside info on South Wales West? I presumbe Bethan Jenkins, Alun Cairns and Peter Black will have no problems, but how close is it between Plaid and Con for the 4th?

 
At 3:48 pm, Anonymous Daran said...

As of an hour ago they were still counting the Bridgend vote. As per last night, that authority seems inordinarily slow in gathering pieces of paper into neat piles.

I think I shall finally go to bed now, despite vowing to stay awake until every result was in.

 
At 3:59 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

hedd, yes. See latest post.

Justin, I agree with you entirely.
If you write a book, you don't go and burn it straight afterwards. Those blogs provide records of a discourse between politicians and their electors which should be preserved for all to see.

 
At 12:27 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is there somewhere publishing votes per each candidate plus detailed regional votes?

 
At 1:35 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

The BBC have results for each constituency and the various regions (only the regions as a whole, not per constituency) at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/welshasssembly_english/html/region_99999.stm#C

 
At 10:01 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

personally, I would be delighted never to have to see Pugh or his vile blog ever again. however, it should be preserved, if only for future reference by the electoral commission. if they are reading this (which I bet they are), may I suggest that they download as many cached pages of it as they can.

 

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