FINAL SCORE: Winners and losers
Friday, May 04, 2007
Bugger. You just knew it was going to happen, didn't you? After all that hype about it being the most closely fought election ever, it was inevitable that the result itself would conspire to be as clear as mud (mixed up with a bit of boot polish for good measure).Lib Dems: The big losers of the night. Sure, they consolidated in certain areas and have a few second-placed platforms to build on for next time. But for this strategy to work, it had to be accompanied by list gains. It wasn't. To win no additional seats has to be seen as a failure. South Wales West AM Peter Black has already written on his blog that "it is clear we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think as to where we are going and how we sell ourselves, our policies and our philosophy to the Welsh electorate."
Sounds to me like the prelude to a leadership contest. In which case, Brecon AM Kirsty Williams would surely be favourite. Crucially, a change of hands at the top would make a Lab-Lib coalition easier to stomach for Lib Dem activists. Alternatively, Kirsty might sever the ties with what she's consistently called a 'failing Labour administration' and shake things up by entering a rainbow coalition. Either way, if they need a "fresh approach", they know they've got one ready and waiting.
1830 UPDATE: I've just spoken on Radio Wales about this very issue. Next up for interview was Peter Black. It was notable, I think, that he sounded distinctly unimpressed by the prospect of a Lab-Lib coalition and he fell way short of giving his leader, Mike German, a vote of confidence.
Labour: People keep saying this has been a bitter sweet night for Labour. Would Rhodri have resigned on 24 seats? We'll never know. What's certain is that a return of 26 seats and a loss of five consituency seats is a significant erosion of Labour's power base. Depending on the shape of our politics for the next four years, this election may have laid down the ground for further missions into Labour territory in places like Vale of Clwyd, Newport East & West, Delyn, Vale of Glamorgan, Neath and even Caerphilly.
The overall picture is more complicated than the final tally of seats will probably suggest. It's impossible to spin this as any kind of victory. For Labour to be on the ropes like this in so many parts of Wales is a wake up call. If this result it to be 'spun', perhaps it can be done in such a way that the people of Wales are under the impression that its government has learned a few lessons.
Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives: I know you're going to have a go at me for clumping these two together.
OK. I'll say it. Just this once. You've only got to look at the final figures to see that Plaid were the biggest winners in this election. They ran the most professional campaign and they had the most memorable policies (whether you agree with them or not, especially on student fee repayment apartheid:). We'll have to wait and see if Ieuan Wyn Jones will seize on this momentum to take Plaid into government in Wales for the first time in its history.
*Just spoken to a source at the count. It looks like Plaid have hung on to the second list seat putting them on 15 (+3) to the Tories' 12 (+1).
1647 UPDATE: Plaid take two seat in South West Wales, Tories 1, Lib Dems 1.
1830 UPDATE: I'm told Ieuan Wyn Jones is backtracking on what constitutes 'propping up a failed Labour administration'. In fact, I was told live on Good Evening Wales and was somewhat stumped by it. IWJ is now saying he wouldn't want a day-to-day agreement - so he's hinting at something more permanent. A coalition, then? After the campaign Plaid have fought, I'm shocked that they appear to be considering such an option so soon after the result. They need time to reflect, and time to work out what 'propping up' really means.
THE FINAL RESULT IS AS FOLLOWS:
LAB 26 (-3)
PC 15 (+3)
CON 12 (+1)
LD 6 (=)
IND 1 (-1)
Labels: results, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, winners and losers
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:13 pm,
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Election 2007 in words and numbers
Scottish people seem to have got terribly confused between numbers and letters. Bless them. That's slowed things down up north.
Here in Wales, the picture is much clearer. And it looks something like this:
Constiuency gains
Labour:
Wrexham, from Independent
Plaid:
Aberconwy, from Labour
Llanelli, from Labour
Conservatives:
Cardiff North, from Labour
Clwyd West, from Labour
Preseli, from Labour
Carmarthen West, from Labour
Regional Vote
North Wales:
CON 2 (=), PC 1 (=), LD 1 (=)
South Wales East:
PC 2 (+1), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (=)
Mid & West Wales:
LAB 2 (+2), CON 1 (-2), PC 1 (=)
South Wales Central (probable):
PC 2 (=), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (+1)
South Wales Central (actual outcome):
PC 2 (=), CON 2 (=)
South Wales West (probable):
PC 2 (=), LD 1 (=), CON 1 (=)
Total seats:
LAB 26 (-3), PC 15 (+3), Con 12 (+1), LD 6 (=), IND 1 (-1)
* or PC 14, CON 13 depending on South Wales West regional.
Likely coalition:
Lab-Lib most likely. But the Lib Dems would have to sell this to their members. They may make demands Labour are unwilling to deliver. One possible outcome is that Jenny Randerson (Lib Dem, Cardiff Central) occupies the vacant Deputy Presiding Offcier's chair and that Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon) enters the cabinet along with the party leader Mike German. But Plaid haven't gone to all this effort for nothing. Don't rule out a move from them later today.
Labels: results, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:52 am,
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Not a Labour meltdown but a definite thaw
Good Morning, Bore Da! If you've been following all night, imagine I'm saying that in a Berkshire accent.
Top lines:
At the time of writing (6.30am) there's a third recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour are apparently ahead by 82 votes.
This has been a Labour capitulation, but without the accompanying loss of seats.
It looks like they'll end up with 26 seats. Rhodri Morgan will be picking up the phone. And Lib Dem leader Mike German will be answering it.
Final prediction:
Lab 26
Plaid 14
Con 12
Lib Dems 7
Ind 1
Good night all. And thank you very much for your company. It's been a blast, even if the result has been disappointingly damp and ambivalent.
0750 UPDATE: Mid & West Wales Regional. Lab 2, PC 1, Con 1. The PR system comes to Labour's rescue. The Tories trade two constituency seats for two regionals. Such is life.
The Vale of Glamorgan is now being called as a Labour hold. But by just 82 votes. Jammy jammy Jane the Hutt.
Oh, and in South Wales West, which resumes at 2pm, it's a straight fight for the fourth regional seat between Dai Lloyd (Plaid) and Chris Smart (Tories). But I'll be buggered if I'm staying awake till then. Head on the block, I'm calling this for Plaid.
Labels: uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 6:29 am,
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RESULTS THREAD
THANK YOU: Excellent work tonight chaps. Thank you all for your contributions, especially those who commented and even more so those who blogged live for the duration. We knocked the socks off England and Scotland.
This blog received an inordinate amount of hits and a total of 188 comments up until the more reflective posts this morning. I think I read them all. On top of that I've been having some great email exchanges - one with a teenage girl who's curious to know more about politics, good for you and keep in touch; another with Kirsty Willliams' sister who is based in Australia and followed proceedings on this blog. There were many more besides. Let's hope the people we've elected tonight can deliver a more engaging brand of politics than they've managed so far. That's the only way to keep this exciting conversation going.
Regional roundup:
North Wales - CON 2, PC 1, LD 1; South Wales East - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1; South Wales Central (probable) - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1, Mid & West LAB 2, CON 1, PC 1,; South Wales West (probable) - PC 1/2, LD 1, CON 1/2.
Bridgend: Labour hold and the majority even goes up slightly. Now, what was the point of that? I've concluded the counters in Bridgend and Ogmore are inept.
Plaid's haul so far: Ten seats. But they look like getting another two in South Wales West and maybe another in Mid & West Wales.
Vale of Glamorgan: Look to be spent for the night. Counters being sent home. Resuming at 9am. South Wales West list saying another two hours. Noooo. Please. Nooo. Actually, no. South Wales West saying not until 2pm!
Other regions: No change in South Wales West, we think. Loads of results missing in South Wales Central so difficult to call, although it looks like PC2, Con1, LD1. As for Mid & West Wales, that looks like being Lab2, Con 1, and the last list seat???? possibly Plaid? Sorry, Glyn.
Bridgend: What's going on there? Why the wait? Is this the end of the 'nationalist wing' of the Labour party?
South Wales East Regional: Mohammad Ashgar becomes the first AM from an ethnic minority background. He will really liven the assembly up. When ever I need a giggle I cast my mind back to the Plaid autumn conference and Mohammad Ashgar doing a crazy dance on the stage as Ieuan Wyn Jones looked on bewildered. PC 2, LD 1, CON 1. Laura Anne Jones is a gonner. Shame, as an Oxbridge type I much prefer young Tory women to middle-aged Labour mums as a general rule.
Ogmore: At last. Almost tempted not to blog it out of spite. Labour hold.
Alun Pugh: Former Assembly Member. "Clwyd West has reverted to type." Hardly a ringing endorsement of ten years of Labour rule though, is it?
North Wales Regional: CON 2, PC 1, LD 1. BNP get 5.1% of the vote and finish fifth. No return for Dafydd Wigley. I think that's the last we'll see of him unless he fancies following Dafydd-El into the House of Lords. No change.
Cameron effect: I think it's fair to say there is one. Tories have already made three constituency gains compared to Plaid's one.
Clwyd West: Have we seen the last Alun Pugh gaffe as an elected assembly member? PC 7,162 CON 8,905 LAB 7,309. Well, yes indeed we have. Another Tory GAIN. Bet Iain Dale is gutted he's missing this.
Carmarthen West: CON 8,590 PC 8,340 LAB 8,492. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm. Big big shock. Should have been a Plaid gain, but the Tories take it from Labour.
The Great UK Blog-off: Bloggers still awake and active at 05:30. England 0ish, Scotland 2?, Wales 6. We've stormed it bois bach (even if there's one notable absentee:). Even celebrity uber-blogger Iain Dale has packed it in and gone to sleep.
Aberconwy: Dylan Jones-Evans fought long and hard, but this has all the signs of being a Plaid gain (or notional hold if you want to go in for all that jizz)... And so it is. Plaid now on seven seats overall.
Still to come: Carmarthen West (Tory gain), Bridgend (Probably Lab, but Tories are pushing), Clwyd West (Still too close to call), Aberconwy (Plaid, surely?), Ogmore (what's their game? Get a move on!), Vale of Glamorgan (we're hearing that Labour are behind, second recount underway). And then there's the small matter of the regional seats. It could be the end of the road for affable Tory Glyn Davies. But could Labour, despite polling less than a third of the popular vote, keep pulling off compensatory gains - perhaps even *three* of four in Mid & West Wales.
Pobl y Cwm set update: I've cracked. I'm now drinking it.
Carmarthen West: Tory gain, I'm told. Is this the end for Glyn Davies? Nooooo.
Clwyd South: Labour hold.
Cardiff North: Tory GAIN. And a five thousand majority gain at that. The Labour vote held up, but the Tory vote hit it with its rhythm stick and danced on its grave.
Vale of Glamorgan EXCLUSIVE: Second recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. And cabinet minister Jane Hutt could be behind. This is a loss that Labour will struggle to make up elsewhere. One to watch...
EXCLUSIVE: BNP are going to be the FIFTH placed party on the regional list. Staggering. In Wrexham they've polled over 9%. It's pulled down in other areas so they won't get an assembly member. But they are by now by far the strongest minority party.
Wrexham: So as the former Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis Thomas romps home, his sparring partner and Deputy, John Marek loses out in Wrexham. I think this is my first incorrect prediction. Bugger. Labour GAIN from Ind.
Rhondda: Leighton Andrews holds for Labour. Another leadership contender is still in there. How long before the plotting begins?
Brecon: For my readers down under. Kirsty Williams polls over 50% of the vote, increasing the Lib Dems' share. Definitely one for the future. Perhaps the not so distant future.
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tories NEED this. And they've got it. A huge turnaround. Tory GAIN. From a 1,300 Labour majority to a 3,200 Tory majority.
Carmarthen East: Rhodri 'who the f*ck is that Blamerbell chap' Thomas holds for Plaid with a hefty majority. Turnout 55.7% and the majority effectively doubled. Wish I was at the Plaid party now. Got an invite but they're packing up at 6am. Where can I get a drink at that time of the morning?
Aberconwy update: Tory candidate Dylan J-E says result will be 5am at the earliest. It's close.
Cardiff West: Rhodri Morgan's seat... And his majority is SLICED IN HALF (By a 21 year old)! What does he have to say for himself then? He's on an athletics analogy at the moment. I thought they were Ming's speciality... "It looks as though Labour will be by far the largest party in the Assembly. It's very dangerous to tempt fate, but it looks better now than it did a few hours ago... I feel very upbeat about the state of Welsh Labour and our relationship with the Welsh people." Upbeat. But in a few hours he could be banging the funeral drum.
Gower: Labour hold. But majority is down 4496! That's huge. Holding on, says the Labour MP in the studio, but holding on to seats they should never have been in any danger of losing.
Scarf watch: I can't see any TVs other than those silly election 2007 graphics behind me. Tell me about the scarf. Is it a new one? I like to log them all in an excel spreadsheet so I need to know. Do you think she got it from Dorothy Perkins?
EH?: Recount in the Rhondda. I don't think it's because Plaid are anywhere near Leighton Andrews. But apparently a load of ballot papers ended up in the wrong pile. Plaid complained and now they're counting again.
Newport East: EXCLUSIVE! John Redwood is doing a turn as returning officer. [Pissing myself here]. Labour hold. A 3,464 majority falls to 900. Good result for the Lib Dems.
Ieuan Wyn Jones: "The electorate has voted for change. I stand ready to play my part in discussions with other parties." Don't go away. Coalition talk to come.
Monmouth: Tories hold Monmouth. As Pink Floyd would say: 'Is there anybody out there?'
BNP Alert: They're polling four figure returns in a lot of regional votes. A worrying development.
Alyn & Deeside and Torfaen are both Labour holds. I've just had a cheese croissant. They really do look after you here. Dave Rodway joins us from a Holiday Inn. I do hope he's wearing some clothes.
Ynys Mon: Plaid hold. Independent candidate Peter Rogers storms into second place. Poor show from the Tories. Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones (still in with a shout as the next First Minister?).
Newport West: The returning officer is a loon. Anyway, Tories again come close, but no cigar. As in Clwyd South and Delyn they can't get to that finishing line. Will they pull it off in Preseli?
Delyn: Labour hold. So far my predictions are going well.
Llanelli (for real this time): PLAID GAIN FROM LABOUR. And it's a hammering. A 21 vote Labour majority becomes a Plaid majority of almost 4,000!! This is the first seat that was predictably marginal. So it's all to play for from here on in.
Ceredigion: Plaid hold comfortably. Lib Dems got 3,000 more voters out but Plaid learnt the lesson from 2005.
Llanelli: DRUM ROLL. Remember, Labour have conceded this already. But never say never... 21 votes in it last time. Squeaky bums, squeaky bums. Will the scarfed seductress make it back? That's Helen Mary Jones by the way. I'm high on caffeine now. Pobl y Cwm booze is still tempting.
Cardiff Central: Lib Dem hold.
Neath: Labour hold. Gwenda 'open vowels' Thomas hangs on. Majority down by 3,000. Plaid up 18.6% from last General Election.
Whisper: Carmarthen West heading for a recount.
Dwyfor Meirionydd: Dafydd Elis Thomas popping the champers already? Yes indeedy. Plaid majority up a grand.
Caerphilly: Ron Davies to let Plaid in through the back door??? No, but it was damn close. A 4,000 majority sliced in half. Labour hold.
Scotland: Alex Salmond elected to Scottish parliament in Gordon. Game on.
Whisper: Labour to lose deposit in Ceredigion.
Aberavon: Labour hold. No kidding.
Vale of Clwyd: Labour hold by just 92 votes. Skin of the teeth. Still, if we're going to use words like 'meltdown' these are the kind of seats you'd Labour would have to lose.
Arfon: Can Martin Eaglestone pull off a miracle for Labour? No. Plaid increase their majority. Plaid hold.
Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold. Another reduced majority.
Swansea West: Labour hold. A future First Minister makes his way back to the Senedd. (He'll be watching Rhodri's movements with great interest). Lib Dems (they were right on the second placed tip), finish ahead of Plaid Cymru.
Montgomeryshrie: Lib Dem hold.
Pontypridd: Labour hold but again, majority down by around 20%
Swansea East: Labour hold. Lib Dems in second as predicted.
Merthyr Tydfil: Labour hold but majority down 23%. Plaid vote down.
Whisper: Tories ahead in Vale of Clwyd. By a whisker.
Nonsense prediction: Plaid to win Merthyr. Would require a swing of 23%. Anyone there or know anyone who is there? If it's true I'll streak through the BBC studio.
Cynon Valley: Labour hold. Just over the mountain from me. Plaid up, Labour down. No big shakes there.
Blaenau Gwent: Independent candidate Trish Law romps home with a staggering 12,722 votes, 54.1% of the vote. Hold.
In her victory speech, 'Trish' as she is affectionately known, said: "The people of Blaenau Gwent have once again sent a message to the main political parties that they really must put people before politics." The Independent culture (no not the one Plaid Cymru won't talk about) of Welsh politics lives on.
Labels: blaenau gwent, result, trish law, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:13 am,
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Lib Dem update: 'we're set for second place'
After all that fuss about Newport East, Lib Dems are now saying they are set for second in Newport East, Monmouth, Swansea East and West. And despite a huge effort, second in Ceredigion too.
We got all excited about the prospect of a Lib Dem constituency gain. Doesn't look like it's going to happen. Still, they're in with a shout for a couple of regionals.
Labels: Lib Dems, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:06 am,
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ISLWYN: FIRST RESULT
Kevin Etheridge (IND) 6,665
Irene James (LAB) 8,883
Mark McGuire (LD) 1,135
Alan Pritchard (PC) 5,084
Paul Williams (CON) 1,797
Tame start to proceedings. You'll note that we predicted this one a long time ago.
BUT. Last time this was a majority of around 8,000. Now it's just over 2,000. That's a drop of 18% (or 27% since the General Election).
Unfortunately, I don't think Islwyn is a seat we can realistically take as a microcosm of the way Wales will vote. More to come...
Labels: Islwyn, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:00 am,
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The very latest predictions
- S4C are apparently calling NEATH the possible surprise story of the night. You won't be surprised to hear that Plaid insiders have been telling me this for ages. They even persuaded Dafydd Wigley to have a walk around in the town centre. Plaid are saying they've probably won the election day vote. But the postal votes should still see Labour through.
- Bridgend update. Tories say it's "very close".
- ABERCONWY UPDATE: From Tory candidate Dylan Jones-Evans. He says he still has no idea which way it will go. Labour looks to be out of it and the Lib Dems (as expected) are non-existent. Still all to play for then, but I hear Plaid are very optimistic.
- Some of you are asking about the Rhondda. Expert analysis from the Beeb's Guto Thomas is that after Burberry only God could beat Leighton. Well, he didn't actually say that. I made it more dramatic. But still, you get the gist.
- Bridgend looking dodgy. Who'll be the next leader of the Labour party if Carwyn Jones doesn't make it through the nigh?
- Tories set to take Delyn.
- Newport East, Newport East, Newport East. But could it finish off Lib Dem leader Mike German? Kirsty Williams (safe in Brecon) is poised.
Labels: uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:26 am,
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Berkshire????
Doesn't Huw Edwards know I hark from the rolling hills of Merthyr?
Nuff said.
*An email tells me that it may not be clear in the studio that I am simply relaying comments and emails from visitors to my blog. Apparently it seems like I'm accusing Huw Edwards of accent fraud. No way, I think it's lovely.
Labels: Huw Edwards, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 am,
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Five minute first past the post quiz
Hmm. Quizzes are notoriously difficult to pull off on blogs because you just end up copying each other's answers.
So, here's the deal. It's called a five minute first past the post quiz, because you have to wait until five minutes after the post time to publish your answers. Then, it's a free for all and the first commenter with a complete set of answers is the winner. Unless it goes on for ages. In which case I'll penalise you for every five minutes you delay. There, it's simple!
Prize: something I can steal from the BBC without them noticing.
Remember, you can't post your answers for five minutes or you're disqualified.
1. In which constituency will you find the village of Penisarwain?
2. What do Felipe Calderon, Benjamin Netanyahu and Rhodri Morgan have in common?
3. If Welsh Lib Dem leader Mike German wasn't a politician, what would he be?
4. Before this year, how many people popular Welsh surname 'Jenkins' have stood for election to the national assembly?
5. Which candidate had the following conversation with an irrate constituent?
X: Good afternoon
Constituent: Did you vote for that smoking ban?
X: Yes I did
Con: (angrily) Then I will never vote for you ever again!
X: Sorry to hear that.
Con: (accusingly) Youv'e been listening to Doctors haven't you?
X: Err....yes.
Con: Thought so. They told me to give up too!
X: The scientists are pretty clear too - passive smoking kills about 400 people every year in Wales.
(Constituent's husband (silent till now) joins in...
Husband: People in this Country fought in two World Wars.....
X: Sorry?
Hubby: People died for freedom
X: I don't want anyone dying
Con: Us smokers are being treated as if we are coloureds
X: (visibly flinching) Would you like a leaflet?
Con: No.
G'luck!
Come on chaps. It's not that hard, is it?
UPDATE: Never mind five minutes, it's Friday morning and I'm still waiting. You're all useless. Though I suppose I can see why you might have been just a little bit brain dead.
Labels: quiz, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:59 am,
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Labour concede Llanelli!
Whispers are that Labour knew the writing was on the wall as early as this afternoon. Plaid were reluctant to make capital in case it dissuaded some of their core vote. Vaughan Roderick is reporting that Labour have now conceded it.
Start of a meltdown or just one of those we always thought would go?
I wouldn't get too carried away. Yet.
But if what we are hearing about Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Clwyd West, Delyn, Preseli, Aberconwy... if that's all true. Well, then. Squeaky bums.
Labels: uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:47 am,
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Campaign killers and May the Fourthcasts
This campaign has taken the political manifesto to new levels. We've seen manifestos for absolutely everything: old people, young people, North Wales, South Wales, green stuff, sports stuff... you name it. Any excuse for a photo opportunity.The four main manifestos were, in all honesty, boring enough. The 20+ supplementary ones were a complete waste of paper. They said absolutely nothing new.
Plaid were churning out manifestos quicker than an East Asian sweatshop churns our Burberry polo shirts. But they were all to blame so I'm not going to take points off any one party in particular.
As for the rest of the campaigns, here's my assessment:
Labour: Talked a lot about what they've already done and even more about who they don't want in power after the election. They didn't talk much about what they'd still like to do if the good people of Wales were to allow them.
Defining moments: 'saving' hospitals only the government could have been in a position to put under threat; imploding after that infamous leak.
Derek says: dark clouds overhead, competing weather fronts could lead to a turbulent period ahead.
Plaid Cymru: Slicker than ever before. Unfortunately, this meant we heard a lot about free laptops, a policy which still screams election gimmick no matter how hard they try and put a socialist-redistributive spin on it. Ahead in the debate on health, undoubtedly the number one issue in this election.
Defining moments: Ieuan Wyn Jones winning over the audience in both leaders debates even though he's as easy on the ear as a four year old's first violin lesson; weathering the storm on finances in the final few days.
Derek says: if the sun doesn't break through the clouds, expect sudden showers and a stark wet wake up call.
Conservatives: Made good use of their leader David Cameron. Whether or not that will have the desired 'effect' remains to be seen. Policy-lite, but sounding conciliatory enough to do the unthinkable and team up with Plaid in a rainbow coalition.
Defining moments: free lightbulbs - whose bright idea was that?; the gay thing - may actually earn them more votes.
Derek says: mild weather will continue, with possibly a few sunny spells in the North and West.
Lib Dems: Manifesto was late. When it finally arrived it was repetitive and verging on impenetrable. Used the same old tricks on their leaflets and devoted a lot of time and effort to Ceredigion, even though they've no chance of winning it.
Defining moments: the manifesto arriving; tackling hard on Labour's controversial and extraordinarily convenient last minute health pledge.
Derek says: no earthquakes forecast here, but if they team up again with Labour they could really rain on Plaid's parade.
What do you think? Do tell. And feel free to give up on the crappy weather analogies.
Labels: campaigning, manifesto, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:07 am,
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Rumours, Whispers, Gossip
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Plonk them in the comments or an email and I shall, in turn, plonk them in here...
- Another plug from Huw Edwards. Something about blogs being written by incontinent saddos. Definition of incontinent: 'lacking in moderation or self-control, esp. of sexual desire.' Oh dear, good job my mum isn't watching.
- Plug from Huw Edwards. He obviously doesn't know what a blog is:) Thanks anyway.
- Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East!!
- Islwyn safe. Upset in 1999, not in 2007.
- Lib Dems talking up Newport East. For them to win they'd need a staggering 14.3% swing. Apparently the Tories are predicting this as a Lib Dem gain - unconfirmed at present.
- Rhodri Morgan and Sue Essex spotted outside Tesco next to Whitchurch library at 8.40 urging people to vote. Also, I'm told in M&S. Rhodri could be buying some slippers for his retirement. Last minute desperation?
- Tories talking up Newport West.
- Turnout LOW in Ynys Mon. Plaid jittery?
- Labour vote collapsed in Aberconwy but holding up in Neath/Aberavon.
- Elfyn Llwyd says Plaid close but not close enough in Clwyd West. Another 12 activists and another week of campaigning might have swung it for them, he says. Looks like a straight race between Labour and Tory.
- More postal votes have been returned in Bristol than the council actually sent out!!!
Labels: uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 11:02 pm,
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Predicitions: make them now coz postdicting is cheating
It's already late. And it's just going to get later. So, I'll keep this concise. Unlike other commentators I'm not going to dilly dally and play it safe. Daran from Positif Politics wanted a mention so here it is: people are paying you for political advice and you still don't have the balls to call Llanelli!:) Humph. I'd rather have egg on my face than no eggs at all. You can't have an election without eggs (blimey, that's bollocks isn't it? Caffeine kicking in...)
Marginals:
Aberconwy: Plaid gain from Labour (though notionally a hold due to boundary changes). Sorry Dylan.
Caerphilly: Labour Hold. Ron Davies has badgered the incumbent Labour AM with all his will. But unless Caerphilly has a collective moment of madness, this seat is safe.
Cardiff North: Tory gain from Labour. Cherie and Gordon some Howe fail.
Carmarthen West: Plaid gain from Labour. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm.
Clwyd West: Tory gain form Labour. Being Christian and a little bit iffy on homosexuality didn't stop George W. Bush.
Delyn: Labour hold. Tory candidate Antoinette Sandbach goes back to being a character from a period novel.
Llanelli: Plaid gain from Labour. Helen Mary Jones buys herself a new scarf to celebrate.
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tory gain from Labour. It's a close one. Tamsin Dun-goody, but not goody enough.
Overall:
Labour 25
Plaid 15
Tories 11
Lib Dem 7
Others 2
Done. And if any of you are still chaffing in the groin area - jump off that bloody fence. NOW!
WHISPERS, GOSSIP, RUMOURS. IF YOU'RE AT A COUNT OR PARTY HQ GIVE ME A CALL OR DROP ME AN EMAIL: blamerbell@googlemail.com
Let's throw a few spanners in the works...
Labels: election predictions, live blog, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 10:31 pm,
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