Not a Labour meltdown but a definite thaw

Good Morning, Bore Da! If you've been following all night, imagine I'm saying that in a Berkshire accent.

Top lines:
  • Labour get almost half the seats with less than a third of the vote.

  • There is a Cameron effect. The Tories have picked up an extra four constituencies in Wales and came very close in three others.

  • Plaid have pushed on. This was a professional campaign, with clearly defined goals. With the exception of Carmarthen West, they were achieved.

  • For the Lib Dems this was an election for consolidation. They are now well-placed for 2011.

  • BNP perform worryingly well - scoring over 5% of the vote on the North Wales regional list.

  • But, Plaid elect the first ethnic minority assembly member - Mohammad 'Oscar' Asghar in South Wales East. Good for him. He's a great dancer too.

  • No sensational returns for Dafydd Wigley and Ron Davies.

  • At the time of writing (6.30am) there's a third recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour are apparently ahead by 82 votes.

    This has been a Labour capitulation, but without the accompanying loss of seats.

    It looks like they'll end up with 26 seats. Rhodri Morgan will be picking up the phone. And Lib Dem leader Mike German will be answering it.

    Final prediction:
    Lab 26
    Plaid 14
    Con 12
    Lib Dems 7
    Ind 1

    Good night all. And thank you very much for your company. It's been a blast, even if the result has been disappointingly damp and ambivalent.

    0750 UPDATE: Mid & West Wales Regional. Lab 2, PC 1, Con 1. The PR system comes to Labour's rescue. The Tories trade two constituency seats for two regionals. Such is life.

    The Vale of Glamorgan is now being called as a Labour hold. But by just 82 votes. Jammy jammy Jane the Hutt.

    Oh, and in South Wales West, which resumes at 2pm, it's a straight fight for the fourth regional seat between Dai Lloyd (Plaid) and Chris Smart (Tories). But I'll be buggered if I'm staying awake till then. Head on the block, I'm calling this for Plaid.

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    posted by Blamerbell @ 6:29 am,


    At 6:50 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

    Well done. Im still going though.

    At 6:51 am, Blogger hedd said...

    How can you compare the Libs and Plaid?

    Plaid have won 2 extra constituencies + 1 extra.

    At 6:51 am, Blogger hedd said...

    ...on the list

    At 7:51 am, Blogger Tortoiseshell said...

    Llongyfarchiadau, Blamerbell. You did us proud!

    At 8:17 am, Blogger Marcusian said...


    i am impressed by your longevity, i have just got into work after not being to sleep, sleep when your dead and all that. The count in newport east was pretty tense although we won in the end by 700 votes, i must admit to some frayed nerves throughout the night

    At 8:18 am, Blogger sarah said...

    Diolch a longyfrachiadau!

    I gave up at 2 - smugly thinking that Carmarthen West was Plaid; ond na, bloody Tories sy'
    wedi'i cipio. :(

    At 8:25 am, Blogger Blamerbell said...

    Cheers, guys. I'm still going, though just not privy to all that exciting insider information anymore.

    Anyway, there's not much left to declare now. And I'll be buggered if I'm waiting for South Wales West to resume at two.

    It's a fight between Plaid and the Tories for fourth place. So Bethan Jenkins is elected and I think she deserves a big well done, along with Nerys Evans in Mid & West Wales. Two young women with big futures I'm sure.

    As for Carmarthen West. Well, there was always going to be one spanner wasn't there. Unfortunately, it's clunked dear old glyn smack bang on the head.

    Hedd, I've readjusted my top lines. I was being dragged out to breakfast and, as Betsan Powys is fond of saying, my brain was a mush.


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