FINAL SCORE: Winners and losers
Friday, May 04, 2007
Bugger. You just knew it was going to happen, didn't you? After all that hype about it being the most closely fought election ever, it was inevitable that the result itself would conspire to be as clear as mud (mixed up with a bit of boot polish for good measure).Lib Dems: The big losers of the night. Sure, they consolidated in certain areas and have a few second-placed platforms to build on for next time. But for this strategy to work, it had to be accompanied by list gains. It wasn't. To win no additional seats has to be seen as a failure. South Wales West AM Peter Black has already written on his blog that "it is clear we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think as to where we are going and how we sell ourselves, our policies and our philosophy to the Welsh electorate."
Sounds to me like the prelude to a leadership contest. In which case, Brecon AM Kirsty Williams would surely be favourite. Crucially, a change of hands at the top would make a Lab-Lib coalition easier to stomach for Lib Dem activists. Alternatively, Kirsty might sever the ties with what she's consistently called a 'failing Labour administration' and shake things up by entering a rainbow coalition. Either way, if they need a "fresh approach", they know they've got one ready and waiting.
1830 UPDATE: I've just spoken on Radio Wales about this very issue. Next up for interview was Peter Black. It was notable, I think, that he sounded distinctly unimpressed by the prospect of a Lab-Lib coalition and he fell way short of giving his leader, Mike German, a vote of confidence.
Labour: People keep saying this has been a bitter sweet night for Labour. Would Rhodri have resigned on 24 seats? We'll never know. What's certain is that a return of 26 seats and a loss of five consituency seats is a significant erosion of Labour's power base. Depending on the shape of our politics for the next four years, this election may have laid down the ground for further missions into Labour territory in places like Vale of Clwyd, Newport East & West, Delyn, Vale of Glamorgan, Neath and even Caerphilly.
The overall picture is more complicated than the final tally of seats will probably suggest. It's impossible to spin this as any kind of victory. For Labour to be on the ropes like this in so many parts of Wales is a wake up call. If this result it to be 'spun', perhaps it can be done in such a way that the people of Wales are under the impression that its government has learned a few lessons.
Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives: I know you're going to have a go at me for clumping these two together.
OK. I'll say it. Just this once. You've only got to look at the final figures to see that Plaid were the biggest winners in this election. They ran the most professional campaign and they had the most memorable policies (whether you agree with them or not, especially on student fee repayment apartheid:). We'll have to wait and see if Ieuan Wyn Jones will seize on this momentum to take Plaid into government in Wales for the first time in its history.
*Just spoken to a source at the count. It looks like Plaid have hung on to the second list seat putting them on 15 (+3) to the Tories' 12 (+1).
1647 UPDATE: Plaid take two seat in South West Wales, Tories 1, Lib Dems 1.
1830 UPDATE: I'm told Ieuan Wyn Jones is backtracking on what constitutes 'propping up a failed Labour administration'. In fact, I was told live on Good Evening Wales and was somewhat stumped by it. IWJ is now saying he wouldn't want a day-to-day agreement - so he's hinting at something more permanent. A coalition, then? After the campaign Plaid have fought, I'm shocked that they appear to be considering such an option so soon after the result. They need time to reflect, and time to work out what 'propping up' really means.
THE FINAL RESULT IS AS FOLLOWS:
LAB 26 (-3)
PC 15 (+3)
CON 12 (+1)
LD 6 (=)
IND 1 (-1)
Labels: results, uk-election-2007, uk-election-2007-wales, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, winners and losers
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:13 pm,
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