Internal polling predicts dark days for Labour

The BBC's Vaughan Roderick has seen private polling from two of the political parties which, he claims, say much the same thing: it looks very bad for Labour while there's much for Plaid and the Tories to be cheerful about ahead of May's Assembly elections.

There's no mention of the Lib Dems - I presume we all expect them to plateau on six seats.

Roderick made the remarks in his latest blog entry, but stops short of going into detail. Perhaps he could share with us whose polls he has seen and what exactly was predicted. Otherwise, it's a bit like lending someone a book having torn out half the pages.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 5:12 pm,

3 Comments:

At 9:14 pm, Anonymous Joe said...

Obviously all leaked polling should be handled with care but I have also heard things about one of these internal polls and it suggested that Labour seats with 1,500-2,500 majorities were in trouble.

 
At 11:52 pm, Blogger ianjamesjohnson said...

While I don't believe that scenario for a minute...

Labour majorities less than 1,500 (and main challenger):

Llanelli - Plaid (21)
(old) Conwy - Plaid (72)
Clwyd West - Conservative (436)
Carms. West & Pembs - Plaid (515)
Cardiff North - Conservative (540)
Preseli Pembs. - Conservative (1326)

Between 1,500 and 2,500:

Delyn - Conservative (1624)
Bridgend - Conservative (2421)

Between 2,500 and 3,000:

Swansea West - Plaid (2562)
Vale of Glam - Conservative (2653)
Vale of Clwyd - Conservative (2769)
Clwyd South - Plaid (2891)

While some of those outliers might look tasty, the new election rules mean that instead of some of the bigger names standing in their hometown seats, Labour will (probably) be given an easier ride by relatively inexperienced candidates, e.g. Alun Cairns not standing in Bridgend, Dai Lloyd not standing in Swansea West etc.

 
At 9:57 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem for Labour is that most of their traditional voters will probaly not bother to vote in May. To make matters worse Labour's organisation is a shell. The nightmare scenario will be if anti Labour voters go behind the candidate which they believe is most likely to defest the sitting labour AM. Today in the Times there is an opinion poll which shows that Labour has already lost the 16-19 generation in the UK.

 

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