Farcembly?
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Today's twist: Labour MPs have told Rhodri to cut out his after dark soirees with Adam Price and IWJ and snuggle up to Mike German and the Lib Dems instead.
The Western Mail's Tomos Livingstone is now predicting a Rainbow coalition will rise from the ashes of the Red-Green talks, while Peter Black says everyone should get a move on.
Quite right. With more waffle than a Birdseye potato processing factory flying through the air in Cardiff Bay, little actual work has been going on. There are still no committees, for instance, so Thursdays are just used for filing fan mail and eating subsidised lunches.
Those in the Welsh political bubble think this is all just fine. These are exciting times. This is the new politics. And other such guff.
But outside, in the real world, it doesn't look quite so groundbreaking. People are simply wondering why they aren't getting on with it.
At the outset, every new twist seemed to offer endless intrigue and interest. But now, 'developments' are treading over old ground. Labour + the Lib Dems? We've been there before.
How many times, I wonder, can this cycle repeat itself before the whole thing descends into farce?
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 pm,
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Labour u-turn a sign of things to come
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
It is exactly two weeks since Rhodri Morgan wrote to Ieuan Wyn Jones and Mike German outlining the terms of a possible agreement to keep him in government.
Since then, Plaid have been negotiating a beefed up deal with Labour, the underlying document of which is just about finished, I understand.
Now, whaddyaknow - Business and Budget Minister Jane Hutt has announced an independent commission to review the Barnett Formula and consider tax-varying powers for the assembly.
A fortnight ago, Labour offered Plaid and the Lib Dems a "seen to be independent inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat." In other words, not an independent inquiry at all.
In just fourteen days, Labour have gone from stubborn refuseniks to willing co-conspirators. They are, [cough, splutter, vomit] experimenting with [shh, don't tell Tony]... compromise.
We've heard a lot about the 'new politics' which is a necessity now that power hangs in the balance between the parties in Wales. Well, here's an an example of it in operation.
And if Labour can announce this before the Red-Green agreement is even finalised, just imagine what could be coming our way if and when the deal is done.
Labels: Barnett formula, politics, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 7:34 pm,
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What Ieuan wants
No decision yesterday in Plaid's group meeting, so that means the future governance of Wales is likely to hinge on next Tuesday's weekly get-together.
Some people have already been speculating about the way Plaid AMs will vote, with almost everyone agreeing that Ieuan Wyn Jones is in the Rainbow camp.
Of course, he would just say he wants whatever's best for Wales, which is a bit like that ruthless lady from the Apprentice saying she wants what's best for Alan Sugar.
His own personal political inflections (and ambitions) must inevitably be playing a huge part in his thinking. It's just that he hasn't bothered sharing them with the rest of us. The BBC reports that he'll be meeting party members across Wales shortly to "explain the choice he believes Plaid should make." I'd wager he'll be doing a lot more tergiversating (love that word) than explaining, given that the details of the Red-Green pact have yet to be revealed.
IWJ is a very shrewd politician, even if there is something Yorkshire Terrieresque about his television appearances. And you can bet that whichever way the group votes next Tuesday (if indeed it is next Tuesday), it will subsequently appear to be the option Ieuan has 'preferred' for some time. If you like, he has hard-boiled the egg before it has had a chance to splatter all over his face.
But in the meantime, he can influence that decision. In the end, whether we advance towards a Rainbow or a Red-Green government comes down to the fancy of fifteen Plaid AMs. Ieuan need only convince seven of them and history is his (although a few of them need no convincing).
There is, however, one problem: the deal the negotiating team have been working on feverishly with Labour. What if that document ends up matching the All-Wales Accord on most issues, and trumping it on the key issues of the Welsh language and a referendum on further powers? After all, Adam Price is involved again, and we all know what he wants.
If that were the case, the Rainbow might become very difficult to defend and some of its advocates may be forced to recognise that perhaps one of its attractions was getting closer to the Tories all along.
What Ieuan wants may not necessarily be what he gets. Either way, though, he won't let on.
1414 UPDATE: In one minute I will be respecting a moment of contemplation and support for BBC journalist Alan Johnston (left) who has now been missing for 100 days. You can sign the petition and read more about the BBC's campaign for his release HERE.
On an altogether different note, everyone's favourite dog-handling, vest-wearing bald guy has written his idyosyncratic take on the world of Welsh blogging, which you can read HERE.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:54 pm,
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The Gordon Brown meme
I've been tagged by Iain Dale and Matt Wardman to say two things about Gordon Brown.
Two words, of course, would be easy. Good off! Or bugger luck! Or something like that:)
Anyway, heregoes...
Two things Gordon Brown should be proud of:
His (Ed) Balls
His Cow's lick
Two things he should apologise for:
Supporting the England football team
Cardiff North (or was that Cherie's fault?)
Two things he should do immediately when he becomes PM:
Promote Peter Hain
Demote Peter Hain
Two things he should do while he is PM:
Favours for rich people
Make St David's Day a national
I hereby tag fresh-faced newbie Seneddwr, Sanddef (because he loves everything to do with blogging), and anyone who'd like to share their wisdom with us in the comments because I am still
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, l Assembly for Wales, meme, NationaGordon Brown, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition, two things
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:35 pm,
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Lib Dems won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Monday, June 18, 2007
A while back, I wrote a post titled Red + Green = Brown. It seems I was being more prophetic than I had intended, since it was written on the day Gordon Brown came to town. From that moment, the Red-Green deal has had a whole lot more momentum.
Why?
Well, Gordon doesn't really fancy beginning his premiership with two rogue Celtic states gnawing at his ankles. A rainbow coalition in Wales would see the Tories back in power and would give David Cameron a huge PR boost. Worse still, Labour would look like a party of opposition again.
New Labour arguably won the last two general elections on the waning momentum of their enormous first victory in 1997. Ten years ago, Tony Blair had his cake and ate it, feeding on a Britain bloated with optimism. Now, there's barely a crumb of that good will left.
Gordon Brown is going to have to rebuild. Scotland is already lost, but he can't afford to lose too much more ground. Rhodri Morgan says he spoke to the PM in waiting about the situation in Wales. I'd imagine it was the other way around. Brown probably spoke to Rhodri and told him to sort it out.
But Rhodri being Rhodri decided he'd muddy the waters by opening the door to the Lib Dems again and the media have rushed to have a merry little walk around Mike German's well-worn garden path.
There isn't much else Mike German can say other than if Plaid and Labour agree on a document, he'll go back to his party and "look again". He's still "committed" to the All-Wales Accord and has no intention of "steering that ship up onto the rocks". Hardly the words of a man with his hands on the rainbow rug, poised to pull.
And if he did pull, he might only fall flat on his arse. By that time, a Red-Green document would already have been drawn up. Much like the All-Wales Accord, it would be released to the public and, if the election results are anything to go by, it would excite more people than any Lib-Lab alternative. But much worse than that, it was the Lib Dems who were ridiculed for steering the rainbow ship up onto the rocks; they could really suffer from sinking the Red-Green ship too.
UPDATE: Something for the Lib Dems to sing and dance about at last: Britain's Got Talent winner, Pol Pot, is a former Lib Dem councillor.
Labels: Mike German, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:33 pm,
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What's happening to the assembly on the telly?
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Once upon a time I went for a chat with someone in the assembly's Cathays Park building.
I had to wait a while before the meeting, so I sat in the lobby. It's quite a grand place actually - lots of marble and columns and that kind of guff.
Anyway, my most vivid memory of this little spell was sitting next to a giant screen which, after a while, began broadcasting live coverage of the latest plenary session.
The receptionist, clearly fed up with the likes of Janice Gregory and Eleanor Burnham breaching her peace, stood up and turned it off. And that was that. Even the assembly can't stand to watch the assembly.
So it's no surprise, then, that it may soon be impossible to watch proceedings live on television. S4C2 currently broadcasts those thrilling debates each Tuesday to Thursday when the assembly is in session. But it now has plans to broadcast Welsh language children's programmes instead.
This story appeared in the Western Mail at the beginning of May and Sanddef flagged it up soon afterwards. Then, a fortnight later, S4C published THIS consultation paper detailing three possible ways forward:
Option 1
• Continue to broadcast the proceedings of the National Assembly during term and fit the new programmes around it.
Option 2
• Cease broadcast of proceedings of National Assembly and broadcast an uninterrupted New Service 7 days a week.
Option 3
• Continue to broadcast National Assembly proceedings as at present and also broadcast an uninterrupted New Service 7 days a week using additional and new capacity. (unlikely)
I'm not entirely sure where we are with this at the moment, but I've heard that the service could be moved entirely online. Given the reliability of the assembly's website, this would be a real blow.
Statistically, I wouldn't be surprised if more people watch the Ironing Channel than S4C2's political coverage. So in the end, it comes down to profitability versus public service, and nothing obliges S4C2 to continue to pump out the Senedd's mostly inconsequential drones.
Nevertheless, I'd be sad to see it go - I really like the 'totty' who present it:)
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By the way, I'm now off to Paris for the CNN Blog Awards ceremony so I'm afraid there will be no posting until Sunday evening at the earliest.
That means I won't be able to react to Plaid Cymru's National Executive meeting on Saturday or any other minor political events I would normally blow out of all proportion. There are, of course, plenty of other great blogs to check out in the meantime, including THIS offering from the Western Mail's new Senedd correspondent.
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, plenary, politics, S4C2, Sali Mali, Senedd
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:51 pm,
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Something else!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Some of you may have seen an earlier version of this post, relating to the CFJ/CNN European award for the best student news blog.
Suffice to say, though, that I am nominated for the award, where I will have to fight off tough competition from France and Serbia.
(Even that) is something of a shock really, given that I mostly specialise in strained metaphors and the kind of news most people wouldn't touch with a bargepole covered in their own faeces.
Thank you all for contributing not just to this blog but to the emerging Welsh blogosphere in general, which was virtually non-existent (with some notable and excellent exceptions) when I started back in October.
As I sit and watch assembly members coax each other into a deep and intensely boring slumber in the Senedd, it's good to know that there's a potentially unlimited space online for lively political debate. The medium has certainly proved itself in recent months and long may it continue.
On another note, Rosemary Butler is chairing her first session in the chamber. Pink jacket, red hair - is that wise?
Labels: Blamerbell, CNN blog awards, politics
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:12 pm,
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Plaid won't do a 'Lib Dem'
There's been a lot of chatter over the past few hours about Plaid re-opening talks with Labour over a formal coalition.
Some of the usual suspects, bless them, have been getting quite upset. Stomp, stomp, stomp. We want our bloody rainbow.
Well, as I said yesterday, they are still odds on to get it. So kem down.
Have any of Plaid's rainbowista AMs publicly changed their position? No.
Has Plaid's leader given any indication that he's keen on a deal with Labour? No.
Has Gordon Brown suggested that he'd whip up Labour MPs to get a referendum on further powers through parliament? No (in fact Tomos Livingstone reports Labour MPs saying quite the opposite).
Were Tory and Plaid AMs drinking together in the Eli Jenkins last night? Probably.
Do we know who the identity of the 'senior source' that broke the red-green story? No.
Worth bearing in mind, I think, that I've seen people quoted as 'senior sources' before who were fourth placed constituency candidates in the assembly election. Can this chap persuade the majority of the party's AMs, party members and national council to change their mind? You decide.
But taking all that's been said in the past few weeks, it seems Plaid's assembly group still overwhelmingly back a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. They wouldn't have dismissed the red-green option so quickly on the previous occasion if that wasn't the case.
And it is they, ultimately, who will make the decision which will go forward to the national council in July. The national exeucitve, which meets on Saturday in Aberystwyth, is merely an advisory body. So, whatever happens, there will not be another Lib Dem moment, whereby a bunch of obscure councillors and receding hairlines overrule directly elected politicians.
*****************************************
Plenary Live:
Alun Cairns has had a hair cut - makes him look even more like the work experience kid.
Eleanor Burnham just attempted to break the world speed-speaking record while asking her tabled question to the new Sustainability Minister, Jane Davidson.
According to Ms Davidson's website, incidentally, she's still the Education Minister.
Of course, to the majority of the population, all this means nothing at all, so I may stop now. They're talking about footpaths again...
Has Brynle Williams been sunbathing - or has he just done up his shirt collar too tight? He's certainly very red. Perhaps he's getting worked up about those badgers he's prattling on about.
Now, the moment we've all been waiting for: Questions to the Minister for Education, Culture, the Welsh Language, Laid-back Self-confidence, Going Grey Gracefully and Everything Else on the Universe just to make Jane Davidson feel bad.
Alun Davies quotes from Alun Cairns' blog. The little man favours academic selection. Of course, I expect Alun Cairns to retaliate with a quotation from Alun Davies' blog: 'Happy Christmas'.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:22 pm,
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How long has Rhodders got?
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
That's the question I was asked today. And for once I didn't chafe my precious parts sitting on that well-worn pundit's fence. Instead, I leapt tentatively into the 'He'll be gone by autumn' camp.
Predictions are usually wrong in Welsh politics and there are plenty of twists and turns yet. But you'd have to say that, on current form, the rainbowistas look set to make a move, perhaps before the summer's out.
Quite simply, Ieuan Wyn Jones wants it too much. Tactically, it might be better to keep the Labour option open as long as possible to at least make it look like the rainbow was forced to make a move. But at the moment, IWJ's poker face is about as convincing as a Didier Drogba dive.
If it were to go ahead, though, I think one of the biggest changes might be in 'foreign affairs'. I know that isn't exactly part of the assembly's remit, but with a nationalist first minister in Scotland and a sympathetic ear in Northern Ireland, the rainbow would look to put pressure on Westminster as part of an alliance with the other devolved institutions.
This could be anything from stating a view on foreign policy (remember Rhodri's refusal to have a view on Iraq?) to demanding greater representation in negotiations with the European Union. I had a chat with Plaid's Adam Price MP about this yesterday before a programme on Radio Scotland, and he suggested the Celtic clout of the devolved governments would look to work as a pincer movement on Westminster to secure, for example, a better financial settlement.
Alex Salmond has already made calls for the resumption of Joint Ministerial Committees between the devolved institutions, and also 'Council of the Isles' style meetings (including the Republic of Ireland), with the UK government.
Of course, these may go ahead whether Rhodri stays or not, but I imagine a Plaid-led government would be anxious to sign-up and secure added legitimacy for the assembly as a national institution in its own right.
********************************************
The latest offering from the sparingly-used poll tool:
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UPDATE: Impeccable timing as ever.
Vaughan Roderick reports that Plaid are set to agree to further talks on a deal with Labour in their meeting this evening.
Labour have apparently offered at least three cabinet positions and firm promises on a referendum on further powers, a commission to review the Barnett formula and a Welsh Language act.
To be updated...
Sources in Plaid say it'll have to be an offer they can't refuse. Could Brown sanction the passage of a referendum through the Houses of Parliament? After all, he can't be keen on the idea of starting his premiership with Labour in opposition in both Scotland and Wales.
Either that, or Ieuan Wyn Jones has finally got control of his poker face. This might just be the smokescreen that enables him to say Labour can't deliver.
Labels: Joint Ministerial Committees, Labour, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 4:00 pm,
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Wee bits and bobs
Monday, June 11, 2007
I'll be taking part in a live debate over on BBC Radio Scotland this evening (10pm) about the future of devolution.
The new Scottish government, led by Alex Salmond, isn't too pleased that Tony Blair apparently struck a deal which could lead to the Lockerbie bomber being sent back to Libya to complete his prison sentence without informing it.
Meanwhile, the Secretary of State and the First Minister in Wales are on such good terms that Rhodri Morgan is backing Harriet Harman for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour party.
You can listen to the programme, Scotland at Ten, online this evening.
I am also booked to pop up again on tomorrow's AM/PM on BBC 2 Wales - better than Big Brother every time:)
In other news, Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones has torn up Labour's olive branch, ground it into sawdust, shoved it in his mouth and sprayed it all over Rhodri Morgan's surprised face shouting "Boo hoo to you, Sir!"
He still fancies forming his own government, you see.
Labels: Colin MacKay, Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Radio Scotland, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan, Scotland at ten
posted by Blamerbell @ 7:25 pm,
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Tories Cook up a storm
You all scoffed last week when I hinted the Conservatives might try and bring down the government over lack of movement on a new Welsh language act.
But with travel agent Thomas Cook appearing stubbornly monoglot in its unwillingness to embrace the Welsh language, the Tories made the first move.
They are calling for a review of the Welsh language act. You'll remember that Labour's legislative proposals stopped short of it, though it's a big deal in the proposed rainbow coalition programme for government.
Plaid have since chipped in with their own calls for increased Welsh language legislation. Well, they do everything together these days, don't they?
Labour's masterplan is to exclude the Conservatives from the consensus they have been seeking. They are trying to raise issues which isolate the Tories. But the men in blue are attempting quite the reverse and on today's form, seem to be having some success.
UPDATE:
Q: What's the worst thing you can do when you're embroiled in a storm about the Welsh language?A: Put up a bi-lingual sign which butchers it.
Even Jade Goody would do a better job of public relations than that.
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Tories, Welsh Labour, Welsh language
posted by Blamerbell @ 3:22 pm,
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Blamerbell on Sunday
Sunday, June 10, 2007
This week, I shall be deputising for Matt Withers while Wales'
The column is called 'Spin Doctor' because 'Matt Withers' didn't sound sexy enough for the cesspit of sleaze and crap metaphors that is contemporary Welsh politics.
And so, I am asking you please to send me little tidbits of gossip and amusing goings-on from the Welsh political world this week. There's got to be something interesting happening. Do it for the sake of your own vanity, or to bugger your boss. Whatever, just whop it in an EMAIL to me.
It kind of defeats the point if you write it in the comments section, so let's reserve that for made-up gossip instead.
I'll make a start...
Peter Black is Swansea West Warhammer champion, 2007.
Carl Sargeant turned down the Economic Development, Health and Education portfolios before eventually settling for the 'You get to sit around the cabinet but you can't make notes' brief.
Jonathan Morgan has announced he won't be contesting Cardiff North in the next general election so he can concentrate solely on becoming Nick Bourne's biographer.
And Plaid's Gang of Four are currently in the recording studio preparing to release a single - "4 become 1". It's thought to include the lyrics, "Be a little wiser baby, put it off, put it off."
And that's as near as you'll get to a popular culture reference from me:)
Email address: blamerbell@googlemail.com
Before Thursday please.
I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Labels: Blamerbell, Matt Withers, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Wales on Sunday
posted by Blamerbell @ 8:20 pm,
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Red + Green = Brown
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Hardly the most inspiring colour, is it?
And yet, whether Wales is a car or an aeroplane, there seems to be mileage in the red-green Plaid-Labour idea again. Adam Price is all for it. And Edwina Hart used her first interview since the twentieth century to put her weight behind it too.
(Quite how any assembly member has managed to dodge the Welsh press for so long is a complete mystery. After all, there are only sixty of them. There should probably be a Dragon's Eye rota, just to even it out. At least that would give Helen Mary Jones some well-earned time off to go scarf shopping.)
Plaid and Labour in a grand coalition? Lefties everywhere are getting erect nipples just thinking about it.
But they haven't had to face Ieuan Wyn Jones. Does this man really fancy playing second fiddle to Rhodri's 'same-old' septet?
No.
He'd quite like to captain the ship himself. That's why the opposition are already behaving like a government in waiting in Cardiff Bay, with joint strategies and chummy tell-all telephone conversations between the leaders.
Adam Price is evidently doing everything he can to make a deal with Labour more palatable. After all, his father was a miner don't you know.
For all it matters, Ieuan Wyn Jones' father might as well have been Aneurin Bevan. He's still pushing for the rainbow.
Six weeks, then, to make or break a government. And at the end of it, most of the parties in Wales could be faced with seismic splits.
Labour is set for an internal battle whether it teams up with Plaid Cymru or not. And if Plaid go with Labour, Ieuan Wyn Jones' position would look very shaky. But then again, a deal with the Tories would cause a massive rupture with the left of the party. Meanwhile, Mike German and Nick Bourne really need to deliver the rainbow coalition to be sure of their jobs.
My prediction: I'll go out on a limb and say that three of the parties will have different leaders by the next assembly election. Within the next few months there'll be some sort of deal between the parties. And that means losers as well as winners.
Labels: coalition, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labout, Plaid Cymru, politics, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:03 am,
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Rhodri's letters
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Here's what Rhodri Morgan is offering Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems in exchange for keeping him in power. Compare and contrast...
**********************************************
Dear Ieuan,
How about some of this?
1. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determins the way the Assembly is funded.
2. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.
3. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.
4. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.
5. a joint group to be set up involving Plaid Cymru and Labour members in the assembly and Westminster to assess the pre-conditions suitable for a referendum to be triggered on Scottish-style powers and to advise on the preparations which would need to be put in place prior to a referendum being called.
6. regular meetings between the First Minister and the leader of the opposition e.g on a weekly basis.
Tories r evil 4 eva.
Rhodri. xxx
**********************************************
Dear Mike,
Fancy a ride on my aeroplane? Here's what's on board:
1. an opportunity to work with government ministers on bidding for the powers to legislate on the Welsh Language and affordable housing.
2. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a
Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determines the way the Assembly is funded.
3. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.
4. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.
5. to set up a cross-party team to explore and report upon the practical experience of introducing proportional representation (the single transferable vote system) in local government in Scotland.
6. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.
Let's do it. Yeah. Groovy.
Rhodders. X
**********************************************
So, Rhodri's taken the sting out of the health issue by giving in on hospital reconfiguration, for the time being.
But how come the Lib Dems get offered deals on the Welsh language and housing and not Plaid?
Looks like Rhodri's trying to become the prism which splits the rainbow.
The opposition parties could, of course, do most of this themselves with Labour in opposition. But without taking power "willy nilly", will they be given the opportunity to get worked up enough to justify a vote of no confidence?
**********************************************
Plaid's Adam Price MP is blogging again. Today he sets out his conditions for a deal with Labour, which he says is preferable to an arrangement with the Tories. These include a formal coalition with Plaid AMs in the cabinet, a joint programme for government and a referendum on full law-making powers within four years.
Labels: coalition, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 5:07 pm,
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Reasons to disagree on first day back at the office
Rhodri Morgan today unveils
So committed is he to this cause, he failed to take part in a televised debate with the leaders of the other parties to explain to the people of Wales what this might actually mean in practice.
If the intention was damage limitation, the effect was quite the opposite; the other leaders spent almost the entire programme reminding viewers of the first minister's absence.
Never mind, Carwyn Jones was deputising and, as ever, sounded like someone from a self-help tape. He managed to tell those agitated nurses to bugger off in really the most relaxing way.
Anyway, the point that the would-be rainbow coup leaders made repeatedly was that the assembly is today being presented with a legislative programme, and yet there was no consultation with the other parties in advance. Labour seem to be saying take it or leave it.
Mike German got as close as possible to facial expression number 3: visibly annoyed. And the others didn't seem too happy either.
I gather the front page (or thereabouts) of the Western Mail will report Ieuan Wyn Jones saying the government has six weeks to deliver or face being kicked out by him and his triple alliance lieutenants. He denied that on television. Apparently he said there would be a 50:50 chance of a
As I said right back when the Lib Dems finally got their knickers out of Alex Carlile's twist, people will expect the rainbow to move quickly if it is to move at all.
The six weeks figure is a calculated move from Plaid to give Rhodri the spooks. It's playing politics again. But this game is getting a little tiring, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any disagreement today.
Labour are expected to put forward the same bunch of policies they previewed so enthusiastically during the election campaign. For the other parties, there's not much to get worked up about except, perhaps, the issue of the Welsh language.
If Labour go with the legislation they proposed back in April, they will set in motion the process of appointing a Dyfarnydd, falling well short of the new Welsh Language Act demanded by the opposition parties and a number of lobbying organisations. Carwyn Jones tried to prepare the ground for this last week. But it went down as well as a vomit smoothie.
This could well be the first sticking point for the new consensus-building regime. And if there's no agreement - what then? Do the Tories topple Labour because there aren't enough rights for the Welsh language? Or can a government only be brought down over something a bit more life and death?
All the signs are that there'll be a lot of huffing and puffing in the next few weeks, but not much blowing the house down.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, legislation, Mike German, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:34 am,
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Time to talk
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
It's 'don't turn up' Tuesday.
First of all, Plaid AMs Leanne Wood and Bethan Jenkins will give the Queen's official opening of the assembly a miss, then Rhodri Morgan will be the only party leader absent from a Week in Week Out special examining what the hell is going on at the top of Welsh government.
Fresh from gaining Wales' first super-ministry, Carwyn Jones will deputise. A sign of things to come, perhaps? Nevertheless, the first minister's absence does rather undermine the point of the programme.
We want answers, and only Rhodri Morgan truly knows what
What are the bottom line issues? And even then, can the government do anything to save its back?
The reality is, surely, that the opposition parties can keep upping the anti. If Labour put all their eggs in one basket, the rainbow partners can just crack them in their face. Labour may offer concessions over hospital reconfiguration, for example, but if they don't go as far as Ieuan Wyn Jones and his buddies demand, then they could have the rug pulled from beneath them at any time.
Personally, I can't see consensus politics going beyond agreeing that this afternoon's champagne is indeed a very good vintage.
Which brings me back to those dungaree-clad social workers, as some of you have so crassly described them in the comments to what was an otherwise quite interesting debate.
And that is surely the point. We had a debate.
Whether or not you agree with Bethan and Leanne, it is vital that we have the argument about the role of the monarchy from time to time. Unfortunately, there is almost no space for the type of views held by these two politicians in the mainstream media, despite the fact that they are shared by a sizable proportion of the population.
Do we elect our leaders or does the Queen appoint them? Are we subjects or citizens? Who decides whether or not we go to war? And is the Queen really the best person to open our assembly?
These are all questions of fundamental importance. They deserve to be discussed. Regrettably, opportunities to do so are all too rare.
Labels: abolition of monarchy, Bethan Jenkins, Leanne Wood, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:43 am,
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Everyone's a winner on the Tory front bench
Monday, June 04, 2007
The Conservatives have announced their new shadow ministerial team.
Alun Cairns makes the Education portfolio a Bridgend affair. He is also just about the only assembly member who could literally squeeze into Carwyn Jones' shadow.
All the baggage that goes with that brief has been dished out to Paul Davies, who takes Welsh language, Culture and Sport. Expect this chap to be wheeled out as the Tories' token Mr Welsh over the next four years.
Elsewhere, Brynle Williams gets 'Farming', which is a bit like giving Darren Millar 'Christianity' (unfortunately he gets Environment instead) and Jonathan Morgan sticks with Health.
You can see the full list HERE.
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, politics, Shadow team, Welsh Conservatives
posted by Blamerbell @ 11:45 am,
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Wish you were there?
Monday, May 28, 2007
Whoppee! It's the Whistun break and our hard-working politicians are enjoying a week in the sun. All except those who've decided to holiday in Wales, that is.So what's the state of the nation? Well, it's a complete and utter shambles. Good job, bring on the Pina Coladas.
On Friday, Rhodri Morgan became first minister of a minority Labour administration. On Saturday, the Lib Dems voted to pursue a rainbow coalition with Plaid and the Tories which would necessitate his removal.
The ball is now very much in Plaid's court. But rather than smash it down the line for a winner, Ieuan Wyn Jones is hanging on to it for a game of keepie uppies.
The noises coming from the Plaid camp are that they now have time to discuss the rainbow option in earnest. I was on a panel with Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other day and he suggested they wouldn't necessarily need to make a move before the summer. Speaking on yesterday's Maniffesto programme, Ieuan Wyn Jones implied that the party's national council wouldn't even be discussing the proposals until July.
In the meantime, Rhodri Morgan will announce a cabinet and get on with the job. But he is a first minister on probation in charge of a government in paralysis. Plaid should beware, however. The longer he's in charge, the more difficult it will be to remove him.
Mathematically and constitutionally, Plaid can take as long as they like. But realistically, they will need a bloody good reason. We're not used to putsch politics here in Wales. Coups are for chickens, not for Cardiff Bay.
It may be possible for the opposition parties to engineer disquiet over hospital reconfiguration or the budget which would prompt a vote of no confidence. But they would be taking power in very different circumstances then compared to now.
At the moment, the election still isn't too far gone. A cabinet hasn't been named and the machinery of administration is still in cold storage. Moreover, the rainbow is still widely seen as an alternative to Labour rather than a calculated plot to oust the government. People may not look upon the idea so favourably in a few months time.
But while the Lib Dems and the Tories have now played their hand, let's not forget that Plaid have emerged strengthened. For the next couple of weeks, at least, they have the threat of the rainbow to keep Labour on its toes. A red-green deal is not out of the question.
And yet there's still that glint in Ieuan Wyn Jones' eyes which suggests he's keen to govern. If that's so, there's nothing to stop him moving fast. Otherwise, there's every danger the assembly will be a national joke by the time he finally makes his move. This comedy of errors has gone on quite long enough.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:32 am,
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Shafted!
Thursday, May 24, 2007
It's no secret that the Lib Dems' six AMs don't get on. Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.
This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.
The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way politics is conducted in Wales has been scuppered by just one unelected officer on an internal Lib Dem council.
The consequences are enormous. Not only is Mike German's leadership now under severe threat but people will be left wondering, a la Simon Jenkins, what on earth are the Lib Dems for?
They've turned their noses up at the offer of PR in local government, which is the one big thing that set them apart. Now, it seems, they'd rather snipe from the sidelines than implement their own policies. No doubt we'll be hearing very soon what was lined up in the coalition document. It is certain, however, to make their election promise of maximum votes for maximum Lib Dem policies completely redundant.
On hospital reconfiguration, reducing class sizes and making the green switch they've turned down the chance to have it their own way.
Peter Black tells me that "in the end the party did not have the stomach for coalition." The rationale is that they can reinvent in opposition. But it is going to be stupendously difficult.
Because whatever government eventually takes power in Cardiff Bay, the Lib Dems will be coalition partners by proxy. By bailing out, they've left few alternatives and very little time. The government's mistakes will be the Lib Dems' mistakes because they engineered the circumstances which put them there.
They are, quite frankly, knee deep in it. To be an effective opposition, you must be free to criticise the government. But every time the Lib Dems open their mouths, the other parties will be quick to remind them that they had their chance and blew it.
Yesterday afternoon, the rainbow coalition document came back from its civil service going over - as if a sign was needed about how advanced the process had become.
The Plaid-Labour document, by contrast, never made it out of Helen Mary Jones' handbag. By committing to the rainbow route, Ieuan was obviously keen to shed his wobble. But had he adopted the more cautious approach of the 'feisty foursome' the next few hours might not be such a scramble.
It seems pretty clear that a Plaid-Tory deal is a non-starter. I put this to Nick Bourne on Tuesday and he laughed it off.
So, Plaid and Labour are left with barely 48 hours to cobble together a programme of government for Wales. And thanks to Labour, there's a 28-page document sitting there ready to go. Who knows, the politicians might finally find something to agree about.
Labels: Conservatives, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:51 am,
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The deal Plaid left behind
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
More details are emerging of the deal Plaid turned down to concentrate solely on forming a rainbow coalition. It is thought Labour were offering a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, a review of the Barnett formula AND a new Welsh Language Act (in some form).
I also understand that at the time Plaid voted to sever talks with Labour, Rhodri Morgan's team were perusing the very same document on health reconfiguration which had been submitted to the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even though Labour had earlier rejected the idea of a moratorium on the reconfiguration programme, the four AMs who voted against suspending negotiations clearly thought there was still hope of reaching an agreement on this and other key issues.
Nevertheless, the other Plaid AMs decided that talks were not progressing at a sufficient pace. And yet, had this offer been on the table on May 4th, surely they would have snapped it up?
UPDATE: It seems others within Plaid are contesting this version of events. They say that a Welsh Language Act wasn't on the table, only the watered-down promise of a 'Dyfarnydd' which appeared in Labour's manifesto. They also say that Rhodri Morgan was prepared to offer an assembly vote on a referendum, but stopped short of guaranteeing his members would support it.
Labels: deal, Labour, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 9:49 am,
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