Poll says Labour set for assembly election losses
Thursday, April 05, 2007

Polls aren't easy to come by in Welsh politics, so when they happen we all sit up and take note.

For geeks like me, this was the most eagerly awaited edition of ITV's Wales Tonight for a long time. And it began with the revelation that time had skipped forward 24 hours, 'Welcome to Friday's Wales Tonight' grinned the presenters.

Back in the real world where Thursday succeeds Wednesday and precedes Friday, today's poll from ITV Wales/NOP does nothing to change the general impression that Labour are going to struggle in the forthcoming assembly elections. Meanwhile, Plaid aren't seeing the boost they think their new professional operation warrants and the Lib Dems may make small gains. The Tories will be happiest this evening, as their percentage of the vote is predicted to increase quite heftily in both the constituency and regional ballot. The results in full:

Constituency %
Labour 36 (-4)
Plaid 20 (-1)
Con 23 (+3)
Lib Dem 15 (+1)
Others 6

Regional %
Labour 35 (-2)
Plaid 20 (=)
Con 24 (+5)
Lib Dem 15 (+2)
Others 5

ITV Wales optimistically translated this into seats, with Labour losing four and the Tories gaining three. This election, however, is so finely balanced that these predictions are impossible to make. Constituency seats depend on a handful of votes in a few key marginals. These in turn have an enormous impact on the distribution of the regional seats.

Conclusion: bad news for Labour but the other parties should look at these results with a huge pinch of salt.

UPDATE: With Labour keeping schtum on their manifesto until Tuesday, it was with great interest that I listened to Jane Hutt on ITV's Wales Decides earlier tonight. Given 30 seconds to sum up why people should vote for her party in May's election she said Labour would be fighting this election on its record in government: 'we will keep free prescriptions, keep free bus passes, keep free swimming pools...' Not a single policy proposal. Not a single pledge. One begins to wonder if they'll bother to publish a manifesto at all when an homage to Rhodri Morgan would happily suffice:)

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