Friday, May 04, 2007
THANK YOU: Excellent work tonight chaps. Thank you all for your contributions, especially those who commented and even more so those who blogged live for the duration. We knocked the socks off England and Scotland.
This blog received an inordinate amount of hits and a total of 188 comments up until the more reflective posts this morning. I think I read them all. On top of that I've been having some great email exchanges - one with a teenage girl who's curious to know more about politics, good for you and keep in touch; another with Kirsty Willliams' sister who is based in Australia and followed proceedings on this blog. There were many more besides. Let's hope the people we've elected tonight can deliver a more engaging brand of politics than they've managed so far. That's the only way to keep this exciting conversation going.
North Wales - CON 2, PC 1, LD 1; South Wales East - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1; South Wales Central (probable) - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1, Mid & West LAB 2, CON 1, PC 1,; South Wales West (probable) - PC 1/2, LD 1, CON 1/2.
Bridgend: Labour hold and the majority even goes up slightly. Now, what was the point of that? I've concluded the counters in Bridgend and Ogmore are inept.
Plaid's haul so far: Ten seats. But they look like getting another two in South Wales West and maybe another in Mid & West Wales.
Vale of Glamorgan: Look to be spent for the night. Counters being sent home. Resuming at 9am. South Wales West list saying another two hours. Noooo. Please. Nooo. Actually, no. South Wales West saying not until 2pm!
Other regions: No change in South Wales West, we think. Loads of results missing in South Wales Central so difficult to call, although it looks like PC2, Con1, LD1. As for Mid & West Wales, that looks like being Lab2, Con 1, and the last list seat???? possibly Plaid? Sorry, Glyn.
Bridgend: What's going on there? Why the wait? Is this the end of the 'nationalist wing' of the Labour party?
South Wales East Regional: Mohammad Ashgar becomes the first AM from an ethnic minority background. He will really liven the assembly up. When ever I need a giggle I cast my mind back to the Plaid autumn conference and Mohammad Ashgar doing a crazy dance on the stage as Ieuan Wyn Jones looked on bewildered. PC 2, LD 1, CON 1. Laura Anne Jones is a gonner. Shame, as an Oxbridge type I much prefer young Tory women to middle-aged Labour mums as a general rule.
Ogmore: At last. Almost tempted not to blog it out of spite. Labour hold.
Alun Pugh: Former Assembly Member. "Clwyd West has reverted to type." Hardly a ringing endorsement of ten years of Labour rule though, is it?
North Wales Regional: CON 2, PC 1, LD 1. BNP get 5.1% of the vote and finish fifth. No return for Dafydd Wigley. I think that's the last we'll see of him unless he fancies following Dafydd-El into the House of Lords. No change.
Cameron effect: I think it's fair to say there is one. Tories have already made three constituency gains compared to Plaid's one.
Clwyd West: Have we seen the last Alun Pugh gaffe as an elected assembly member? PC 7,162 CON 8,905 LAB 7,309. Well, yes indeed we have. Another Tory GAIN. Bet Iain Dale is gutted he's missing this.
Carmarthen West: CON 8,590 PC 8,340 LAB 8,492. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm. Big big shock. Should have been a Plaid gain, but the Tories take it from Labour.
The Great UK Blog-off: Bloggers still awake and active at 05:30. England 0ish, Scotland 2?, Wales 6. We've stormed it bois bach (even if there's one notable absentee:). Even celebrity uber-blogger Iain Dale has packed it in and gone to sleep.
Aberconwy: Dylan Jones-Evans fought long and hard, but this has all the signs of being a Plaid gain (or notional hold if you want to go in for all that jizz)... And so it is. Plaid now on seven seats overall.
Still to come: Carmarthen West (Tory gain), Bridgend (Probably Lab, but Tories are pushing), Clwyd West (Still too close to call), Aberconwy (Plaid, surely?), Ogmore (what's their game? Get a move on!), Vale of Glamorgan (we're hearing that Labour are behind, second recount underway). And then there's the small matter of the regional seats. It could be the end of the road for affable Tory Glyn Davies. But could Labour, despite polling less than a third of the popular vote, keep pulling off compensatory gains - perhaps even *three* of four in Mid & West Wales.
Pobl y Cwm set update: I've cracked. I'm now drinking it.
Carmarthen West: Tory gain, I'm told. Is this the end for Glyn Davies? Nooooo.
Clwyd South: Labour hold.
Cardiff North: Tory GAIN. And a five thousand majority gain at that. The Labour vote held up, but the Tory vote hit it with its rhythm stick and danced on its grave.
Vale of Glamorgan EXCLUSIVE: Second recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. And cabinet minister Jane Hutt could be behind. This is a loss that Labour will struggle to make up elsewhere. One to watch...
EXCLUSIVE: BNP are going to be the FIFTH placed party on the regional list. Staggering. In Wrexham they've polled over 9%. It's pulled down in other areas so they won't get an assembly member. But they are by now by far the strongest minority party.
Wrexham: So as the former Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis Thomas romps home, his sparring partner and Deputy, John Marek loses out in Wrexham. I think this is my first incorrect prediction. Bugger. Labour GAIN from Ind.
Rhondda: Leighton Andrews holds for Labour. Another leadership contender is still in there. How long before the plotting begins?
Brecon: For my readers down under. Kirsty Williams polls over 50% of the vote, increasing the Lib Dems' share. Definitely one for the future. Perhaps the not so distant future.
Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tories NEED this. And they've got it. A huge turnaround. Tory GAIN. From a 1,300 Labour majority to a 3,200 Tory majority.
Carmarthen East: Rhodri 'who the f*ck is that Blamerbell chap' Thomas holds for Plaid with a hefty majority. Turnout 55.7% and the majority effectively doubled. Wish I was at the Plaid party now. Got an invite but they're packing up at 6am. Where can I get a drink at that time of the morning?
Aberconwy update: Tory candidate Dylan J-E says result will be 5am at the earliest. It's close.
Cardiff West: Rhodri Morgan's seat... And his majority is SLICED IN HALF (By a 21 year old)! What does he have to say for himself then? He's on an athletics analogy at the moment. I thought they were Ming's speciality... "It looks as though Labour will be by far the largest party in the Assembly. It's very dangerous to tempt fate, but it looks better now than it did a few hours ago... I feel very upbeat about the state of Welsh Labour and our relationship with the Welsh people." Upbeat. But in a few hours he could be banging the funeral drum.
Gower: Labour hold. But majority is down 4496! That's huge. Holding on, says the Labour MP in the studio, but holding on to seats they should never have been in any danger of losing.
Scarf watch: I can't see any TVs other than those silly election 2007 graphics behind me. Tell me about the scarf. Is it a new one? I like to log them all in an excel spreadsheet so I need to know. Do you think she got it from Dorothy Perkins?
EH?: Recount in the Rhondda. I don't think it's because Plaid are anywhere near Leighton Andrews. But apparently a load of ballot papers ended up in the wrong pile. Plaid complained and now they're counting again.
Newport East: EXCLUSIVE! John Redwood is doing a turn as returning officer. [Pissing myself here]. Labour hold. A 3,464 majority falls to 900. Good result for the Lib Dems.
Ieuan Wyn Jones: "The electorate has voted for change. I stand ready to play my part in discussions with other parties." Don't go away. Coalition talk to come.
Monmouth: Tories hold Monmouth. As Pink Floyd would say: 'Is there anybody out there?'
BNP Alert: They're polling four figure returns in a lot of regional votes. A worrying development.
Alyn & Deeside and Torfaen are both Labour holds. I've just had a cheese croissant. They really do look after you here. Dave Rodway joins us from a Holiday Inn. I do hope he's wearing some clothes.
Ynys Mon: Plaid hold. Independent candidate Peter Rogers storms into second place. Poor show from the Tories. Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones (still in with a shout as the next First Minister?).
Newport West: The returning officer is a loon. Anyway, Tories again come close, but no cigar. As in Clwyd South and Delyn they can't get to that finishing line. Will they pull it off in Preseli?
Delyn: Labour hold. So far my predictions are going well.
Llanelli (for real this time): PLAID GAIN FROM LABOUR. And it's a hammering. A 21 vote Labour majority becomes a Plaid majority of almost 4,000!! This is the first seat that was predictably marginal. So it's all to play for from here on in.
Ceredigion: Plaid hold comfortably. Lib Dems got 3,000 more voters out but Plaid learnt the lesson from 2005.
Llanelli: DRUM ROLL. Remember, Labour have conceded this already. But never say never... 21 votes in it last time. Squeaky bums, squeaky bums. Will the scarfed seductress make it back? That's Helen Mary Jones by the way. I'm high on caffeine now. Pobl y Cwm booze is still tempting.
Cardiff Central: Lib Dem hold.
Neath: Labour hold. Gwenda 'open vowels' Thomas hangs on. Majority down by 3,000. Plaid up 18.6% from last General Election.
Whisper: Carmarthen West heading for a recount.
Dwyfor Meirionydd: Dafydd Elis Thomas popping the champers already? Yes indeedy. Plaid majority up a grand.
Caerphilly: Ron Davies to let Plaid in through the back door??? No, but it was damn close. A 4,000 majority sliced in half. Labour hold.
Scotland: Alex Salmond elected to Scottish parliament in Gordon. Game on.
Whisper: Labour to lose deposit in Ceredigion.
Aberavon: Labour hold. No kidding.
Vale of Clwyd: Labour hold by just 92 votes. Skin of the teeth. Still, if we're going to use words like 'meltdown' these are the kind of seats you'd Labour would have to lose.
Arfon: Can Martin Eaglestone pull off a miracle for Labour? No. Plaid increase their majority. Plaid hold.
Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold. Another reduced majority.
Swansea West: Labour hold. A future First Minister makes his way back to the Senedd. (He'll be watching Rhodri's movements with great interest). Lib Dems (they were right on the second placed tip), finish ahead of Plaid Cymru.
Montgomeryshrie: Lib Dem hold.
Pontypridd: Labour hold but again, majority down by around 20%
Swansea East: Labour hold. Lib Dems in second as predicted.
Merthyr Tydfil: Labour hold but majority down 23%. Plaid vote down.
Whisper: Tories ahead in Vale of Clwyd. By a whisker.
Nonsense prediction: Plaid to win Merthyr. Would require a swing of 23%. Anyone there or know anyone who is there? If it's true I'll streak through the BBC studio.
Cynon Valley: Labour hold. Just over the mountain from me. Plaid up, Labour down. No big shakes there.
Blaenau Gwent: Independent candidate Trish Law romps home with a staggering 12,722 votes, 54.1% of the vote. Hold.
In her victory speech, 'Trish' as she is affectionately known, said: "The people of Blaenau Gwent have once again sent a message to the main political parties that they really must put people before politics." The Independent culture (no not the one Plaid Cymru won't talk about) of Welsh politics lives on.
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:13 am,
- At 2:18 am, wonderful-electric.co.uk said...
Blimey. Hell hath no fury than a Welsh woman dissed by Rhodri Morgan...
- At 2:20 am, said...
She thanked 'People's voice' in her address. Sure Electoral Commission will be looking very closely at that.
- At 2:21 am, Mike said...
Good for her.
- At 2:22 am, Luke young said...
oh well... tomorrow's another day... back to the drawing board
- At 2:23 am, Justin said...
The whole Trish Law thing has enthralled me from the outset, elected to stick it to the man perhaps?
Although she wanted no mention of her late husband in her election paraphernalia I do wonder to how much influence name association and constituent sentimentality had on this result.
- At 2:28 am, Mike Cridland said...
What about Ron Davies?
Mike in sunny Kansas
- At 2:29 am, said...
the question now is: who are Labour going to blame for the worst election performance in wales ever? I think we have to look ast the peopel who designers of the Vote Plaid get Tory campaign.
Because it's negative, but also because peopel are no longer afraid of Plaid and theyve forgotten the Tories.
- At 2:30 am, Blamerbell said...
Ron Davies: the word is that his presence could let Plaid in through the back door. But I've come out in my predictions and said I don't think that will happen.
Trish Law picks up votes because, as she pointed out in her speech, people are cheesed off with politics and politicians. She is the 'none of the above' candidate most voters would die for.
- At 2:35 am, Justin said...
Is that a deliberately innuendo laden comment RE Ron Davies...lol If it was crafted as such I applaud you sir ;)
- At 2:36 am, Reactionary Snob said...
So what's the overall sketch in Wales, sir?
- At 2:37 am, Mike said...
its a shame that there aren't more real effective "none of the above" candidates for the rest of us.
She's on the screen now.....saying it was a tidy election.....bless
- At 2:38 am, Simo said...
another interview ung cynraig this time
- At 2:38 am, Mike said...
and she's a pisces!!
- At 2:41 am, Ordovicius said...
Im still awake too, Ciaran.
- At 2:42 am, Blamerbell said...
Sorry Sanddef! Come and have a chat.
- At 2:43 am, Blamerbell said...
"So what's the overall sketch in Wales, sir?"
Not looking good for Labour. But possibly worse than we've been predicting.
Labour have already conceded the tightest marginal: Llanelli.
- At 2:45 am, Daran said...
Did Trish Law really say she wanted a NEW Labour government? Not even Welsh Labour want that!
- At 2:47 am, Hogyn o Rachub said...
Nes i fyth dweud sa plaid yn ENNILL Merthyr...
- At 2:47 am, Blamerbell said...
Did she really say it was a "tidy" result?
- At 2:47 am, Ordovicius said...
Come and have a chat.
Cheers. Where was that recount? Clwyd West?
- At 2:48 am, Valleys Mam said...
still awake too had a gin and a piece of cake revived now
been talking to my daughter in merthyr she said lots of plaid presence all day but not heard or seen anyone dancing in the streets so may be hes ok
- At 2:48 am, Blamerbell said...
There was a recount on the regional ballot in Clwyd South.
- At 2:54 am, said...
Lab ahead in Voc I think. Also Lab hold Cardiff S, with Cons second
- At 2:55 am, Mike said...
Betsan's glad your not going to streak.
Think you should do it anyway
Just to show her!
- At 2:56 am, Luke young said...
I thought i was going mad! She said it, I was stunned! The majority of us in BG Lab are not even New Labour!
- At 2:56 am, Mike said...
sri....missed you comment.
honest her exact words.
"a tidy election"
- At 3:06 am, Ordovicius said...
Is Glyn back in now that Bates has held Montgomeryshire?
- At 3:13 am, Jerome said...
No posts for an hour? Blog, Ciaran, Blog. Don't stop blogging. The Blogosphere demands it.
- At 3:15 am, Blamerbell said...
jerome!!! I'm live blogging every minute and putting the results up sometimes before the Beeb! You've got to refresh your page.
- At 3:16 am, Mike said...
Its not only Huw that doesn't understand the secret world of the blogger.
- At 3:17 am, Jerome said...
Ah yes, I see now. Good result for Ron Davies, eh what? Just goes to show there's no such thing as bad publicity...
- At 3:17 am, Blamerbell said...
We've also got Preseli, Carmarthen West and Llanelli to come. To early to call. Though early signs are that Labour will lose two if not all of these.
- At 3:19 am, Mike said...
where were the badgers when you need them?
- At 3:24 am, Justin said...
I think he wants to make us lazy feed reader users work for it... ;)
- At 3:27 am, Mike said...
I know it is such a pain that there are no feeds of comments in blogger....
its a major fault..
But think of the number of hits his site will get....
- At 3:32 am, Jerome said...
Don't text-wink conspiratorially at me, justin. I'm not one of you. I'm no more likely to use a "feed reader" than I am to jab a fork into my eyeball.
- At 3:33 am, Mike said...
Helen Mary Jones rules!
- At 3:36 am, Justin said...
A faint glimmer of panic on HMJ's mug as the reporting officer said Tair mil and whafled the rest. Made me chuckle anyway.
I've never been keen on her, Always thought she was more a career politician/bureaucrat than a solid constituency representative, Best get use to it though seeing as she's now my AM.
- At 3:36 am, said...
marvellous, I'd like to thank you and Ordovicius for enabling me to share in this election from my crappy room in the London Orbital Holiday Inn.
My minibar continues to flow, and glass after glass is raised, this time to you both for what is essentially a public service..
- At 3:38 am, Mike said...
I bet he's wishing he paid for some one to translate for him!
Numbers in english for clarity!!
- At 3:48 am, Mike said...
Huw thinks he's doing breakfast tv.
He's welcoming new viewers....
"If you're just tuning in....
Blamerbell you're close to the studio, are those real flashing lights behind Huw or are they television trickery?
- At 3:51 am, Blamerbell said...
Real flashy lights. Thank God Labour won Merthyr. No need to streak.
- At 3:54 am, Mike said...
He just can't sing..
- At 3:54 am, Jerome said...
Wow, that Newport Returning Officer put in a good performance in the "most hamfisted Welsh-speaking" category.
- At 3:57 am, Mike said...
Do you suppose they suggested that an ability to speak welsh would help in the job....
But then again, he made an effort...
which should be applauded.
But why didn't he practice...
Helen Mary Jones in a lovely scarf being humble and modest..
- At 4:06 am, said...
down to my last refreshing tomato juice and brandy here at the Holiday Inn. Now the remaining drinks in the minbar are discussing coalition cocktails. The pineapple juice is lurking towards the back of the fridge.
Fully clothed and ready to serve my country.
Terrific night.. It was this or repeat Taggarts on hotel TV digital. The new SNP Taggart kicks arsse however.
- At 4:09 am, Mike said...
According to Wikipedia
"A scarf is a piece of fabric worn on or near the head or around the neck for warmth, cleanliness, fashion or for religious reasons."
This particular scarf was super, long, slim and casually draped, I didn't notice the colours, but they were lovely.
i don't think it was dorothy perkins.............possibly kate moss?
Do you suppose she wears them for religious reasons?
- At 4:12 am, said...
Cardiff West my home patch - what was the score?
- At 4:12 am, Mike said...
Betsan's blogged about the Returning Officer in Newport.
She and Huw weren't impressed.
- At 4:18 am, Daran said...
Rumours of a full recount in Carm W - any truth?
Clwyd S safe for Lab I think
Mr Marek doesn't look happy in Wrexham
Jonathan Morgan has romped it in Cardiff North
- At 4:27 am, Blamerbell said...
Carmarthen West - three-way split. Not sure about recount but they'll be counting carefully.
Re the scarf: I thought she had some sort of weird neck disformity so I refrained from blogging about it out of respect. Turns out it's a fashion statement.
- At 4:27 am, Blamerbell said...
Mr marek in wrexham. We're hearing about a 1,300 majority for Labour.
- At 4:30 am, Mike said...
There's a photo on the BBC Wales page.
I can confirm the scarf was pink, with a hint of gold edging (I think).
Truly a lovely thing, that compliments her victory smile.
- At 4:46 am, Daran said...
Anything on Bridgend? Getting radio silence...
- At 4:46 am, Alwyn ap Huw said...
Why are your mates at the Beeb ignoring the most historic result of the night?
For the first time in 100 years a party other than Labour will have the safest majority in Wales.
DET's result in Dwyfor Meirion is historic but the historic significance of his vote is being ignored
- At 4:48 am, Blamerbell said...
I'll make representations Alwyn.
And I'll also try and get the latest from Bridgend...
- At 4:51 am, Daran said...
I think the NW regional list will stay as it is
- At 4:56 am, Mike said...
Just a brief note to let you know how much I have enjoyed this election evening. Being able to interact with your blogs has rather brought the election to life. I can't wait for the next one
Without the help of a Holiday inn mini bar, or the props department of Pobyl Y Cwm, I cannot stay awake any longer.
I wonder could I have a future as a political fashion consultant?
- At 4:59 am, Blamerbell said...
If I see Helen Mary tomorrow, I'll let her know you've made representations...
Thanks for your company.
- At 4:59 am, Blamerbell said...
That's how I did my calculations, certainly, daran.
Lib Dems are now predicting two list gains rather than three.
- At 5:02 am, daran said...
And where's the Vale of Glam??? 2nd recount I here...
And what about SE Wales? Haven't all the seats counted and declared, and isn't there a list result there now?
- At 5:06 am, Blamerbell said...
Yep. that's there in the blog.
No word from the regionals yet.
- At 5:09 am, Mike said...
Cardiff North.....my patch.....
This ageing student now really going to bed.
- At 5:18 am, Daran said...
If Tories do gain Carm West (and they seem to be ahead) I reckon that will leave a regional list in mid wales of 2 Labs, 1 LD and 1 Con. I know he'll kill me if I'm wrong, but I think Glyn has gone...
- At 5:33 am, Daran said...
I hear Vale now looks Labour after most recent recount. Swings and roundabouts.
- At 5:46 am, hedd said...
Come on Blamerbell (or anyone else) give us a guess on how the regional seats will pan out!
- At 6:00 am, Ordovicius said...
Im always up this late anyway
- At 6:03 am, hedd said...
Felly 11 sedd i'r Blaid hyd yma. Sawl sedd ydych chi'n meddwl caiff y Blaid yn y 3 rhanbarth sydd yn weddill - Canol De Cymru, Gorllewin De Cymru a Canolbarth a Gorllewin Cymru? I fwrw yr 14 sedd fel sydd wedi'i ddarogan byddai rhaid i'r Blaid ennill 2 yng Nghanol De Cymru, neu Gorllewin De Cymru achos dyw e ddim yn debygol y bydd y Blaid yn cael sedd yn rhanbarth y Canolbarth a'r Gorllewin yw e?
- At 6:11 am, Ordovicius said...
Felly 11 sedd i'r Blaid hyd yma
- At 6:29 am, Jerome said...
And so it ends. That's eight hours of my life I'll never get back.
- At 6:31 am, hedd said...
Shit. Wnes i gangymeriad. 7 sydd gan y Blaid yn yr etholaethau, 1 yn rhanbarth y Gogledd a 2 yn rhanbarth Dwyrain De Cymru, felly 10 i gyd hyd yma.
Os bydd y Blaid yn cael 2 yn Canol De Cymru:
Leanne Wood + Chris Franks
a 2 yn Gorllewin De Cymru:
Bethan Jenkins + Dr Dai Lloyd
Bydd hyna'n 14 sedd.
- At 6:45 am, Ordovicius said...
O ble mae'r "10 sedd" Plaid yn dod?
- At 6:52 am, hedd said...
7 yn yr etholaethau, 1 yn rhanbarth y Gogledd a 2 yn rhanbarth Dwyrain De Cymru