RESULTS THREAD
Friday, May 04, 2007

THANK YOU: Excellent work tonight chaps. Thank you all for your contributions, especially those who commented and even more so those who blogged live for the duration. We knocked the socks off England and Scotland.

This blog received an inordinate amount of hits and a total of 188 comments up until the more reflective posts this morning. I think I read them all. On top of that I've been having some great email exchanges - one with a teenage girl who's curious to know more about politics, good for you and keep in touch; another with Kirsty Willliams' sister who is based in Australia and followed proceedings on this blog. There were many more besides. Let's hope the people we've elected tonight can deliver a more engaging brand of politics than they've managed so far. That's the only way to keep this exciting conversation going.

Regional roundup:
 North Wales - CON 2, PC 1, LD 1; South Wales East - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1; South Wales Central (probable) - PC 2, CON 1, LD 1, Mid & West LAB 2, CON 1, PC 1,; South Wales West (probable) - PC 1/2, LD 1, CON 1/2.

Bridgend: Labour hold and the majority even goes up slightly. Now, what was the point of that? I've concluded the counters in Bridgend and Ogmore are inept.

Plaid's haul so far: Ten seats. But they look like getting another two in South Wales West and maybe another in Mid & West Wales.

Vale of Glamorgan: Look to be spent for the night. Counters being sent home. Resuming at 9am. South Wales West list saying another two hours. Noooo. Please. Nooo. Actually, no. South Wales West saying not until 2pm!

Other regions: No change in South Wales West, we think. Loads of results missing in South Wales Central so difficult to call, although it looks like PC2, Con1, LD1. As for Mid & West Wales, that looks like being Lab2, Con 1, and the last list seat???? possibly Plaid? Sorry, Glyn.

Bridgend: What's going on there? Why the wait? Is this the end of the 'nationalist wing' of the Labour party?

South Wales East Regional: Mohammad Ashgar becomes the first AM from an ethnic minority background. He will really liven the assembly up. When ever I need a giggle I cast my mind back to the Plaid autumn conference and Mohammad Ashgar doing a crazy dance on the stage as Ieuan Wyn Jones looked on bewildered. PC 2, LD 1, CON 1. Laura Anne Jones is a gonner. Shame, as an Oxbridge type I much prefer young Tory women to middle-aged Labour mums as a general rule.

Ogmore: At last. Almost tempted not to blog it out of spite. Labour hold.

Alun Pugh: Former Assembly Member. "Clwyd West has reverted to type." Hardly a ringing endorsement of ten years of Labour rule though, is it?

North Wales Regional: CON 2, PC 1, LD 1. BNP get 5.1% of the vote and finish fifth. No return for Dafydd Wigley. I think that's the last we'll see of him unless he fancies following Dafydd-El into the House of Lords. No change.

Cameron effect: I think it's fair to say there is one. Tories have already made three constituency gains compared to Plaid's one.

Clwyd West: Have we seen the last Alun Pugh gaffe as an elected assembly member? PC 7,162 CON 8,905 LAB 7,309. Well, yes indeed we have. Another Tory GAIN. Bet Iain Dale is gutted he's missing this.

Carmarthen West: CON 8,590 PC 8,340 LAB 8,492. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm. Big big shock. Should have been a Plaid gain, but the Tories take it from Labour.

The Great UK Blog-off: Bloggers still awake and active at 05:30. England 0ish, Scotland 2?, Wales 6. We've stormed it bois bach (even if there's one notable absentee:). Even celebrity uber-blogger Iain Dale has packed it in and gone to sleep.

Aberconwy: Dylan Jones-Evans fought long and hard, but this has all the signs of being a Plaid gain (or notional hold if you want to go in for all that jizz)... And so it is. Plaid now on seven seats overall.

Still to come: Carmarthen West (Tory gain), Bridgend (Probably Lab, but Tories are pushing), Clwyd West (Still too close to call), Aberconwy (Plaid, surely?), Ogmore (what's their game? Get a move on!), Vale of Glamorgan (we're hearing that Labour are behind, second recount underway). And then there's the small matter of the regional seats. It could be the end of the road for affable Tory Glyn Davies. But could Labour, despite polling less than a third of the popular vote, keep pulling off compensatory gains - perhaps even *three* of four in Mid & West Wales.

Pobl y Cwm set update: I've cracked. I'm now drinking it.

Carmarthen West: Tory gain, I'm told. Is this the end for Glyn Davies? Nooooo.

Clwyd South: Labour hold.

Cardiff North: Tory GAIN. And a five thousand majority gain at that. The Labour vote held up, but the Tory vote hit it with its rhythm stick and danced on its grave.

Vale of Glamorgan EXCLUSIVE: Second recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. And cabinet minister Jane Hutt could be behind. This is a loss that Labour will struggle to make up elsewhere. One to watch...

EXCLUSIVE: BNP are going to be the FIFTH placed party on the regional list. Staggering. In Wrexham they've polled over 9%. It's pulled down in other areas so they won't get an assembly member. But they are by now by far the strongest minority party.

Wrexham: So as the former Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis Thomas romps home, his sparring partner and Deputy, John Marek loses out in Wrexham. I think this is my first incorrect prediction. Bugger. Labour GAIN from Ind.

Rhondda: Leighton Andrews holds for Labour. Another leadership contender is still in there. How long before the plotting begins?

Brecon: For my readers down under. Kirsty Williams polls over 50% of the vote, increasing the Lib Dems' share. Definitely one for the future. Perhaps the not so distant future.

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tories NEED this. And they've got it. A huge turnaround. Tory GAIN. From a 1,300 Labour majority to a 3,200 Tory majority.

Carmarthen East: Rhodri 'who the f*ck is that Blamerbell chap' Thomas holds for Plaid with a hefty majority. Turnout 55.7% and the majority effectively doubled. Wish I was at the Plaid party now. Got an invite but they're packing up at 6am. Where can I get a drink at that time of the morning?

Aberconwy update: Tory candidate Dylan J-E says result will be 5am at the earliest. It's close.

Cardiff West: Rhodri Morgan's seat... And his majority is SLICED IN HALF (By a 21 year old)! What does he have to say for himself then? He's on an athletics analogy at the moment. I thought they were Ming's speciality... "It looks as though Labour will be by far the largest party in the Assembly. It's very dangerous to tempt fate, but it looks better now than it did a few hours ago... I feel very upbeat about the state of Welsh Labour and our relationship with the Welsh people." Upbeat. But in a few hours he could be banging the funeral drum.

Gower: Labour hold. But majority is down 4496! That's huge. Holding on, says the Labour MP in the studio, but holding on to seats they should never have been in any danger of losing.

Scarf watch: I can't see any TVs other than those silly election 2007 graphics behind me. Tell me about the scarf. Is it a new one? I like to log them all in an excel spreadsheet so I need to know. Do you think she got it from Dorothy Perkins?

EH?: Recount in the Rhondda. I don't think it's because Plaid are anywhere near Leighton Andrews. But apparently a load of ballot papers ended up in the wrong pile. Plaid complained and now they're counting again.

Newport East: EXCLUSIVE! John Redwood is doing a turn as returning officer. [Pissing myself here]. Labour hold. A 3,464 majority falls to 900. Good result for the Lib Dems.

Ieuan Wyn Jones: "The electorate has voted for change. I stand ready to play my part in discussions with other parties." Don't go away. Coalition talk to come.

Monmouth: Tories hold Monmouth. As Pink Floyd would say: 'Is there anybody out there?'

BNP Alert: They're polling four figure returns in a lot of regional votes. A worrying development.

Alyn & Deeside and Torfaen are both Labour holds. I've just had a cheese croissant. They really do look after you here. Dave Rodway joins us from a Holiday Inn. I do hope he's wearing some clothes.

Ynys Mon: Plaid hold. Independent candidate Peter Rogers storms into second place. Poor show from the Tories. Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones (still in with a shout as the next First Minister?).

Newport West: The returning officer is a loon. Anyway, Tories again come close, but no cigar. As in Clwyd South and Delyn they can't get to that finishing line. Will they pull it off in Preseli?

Delyn: Labour hold. So far my predictions are going well.

Llanelli (for real this time): PLAID GAIN FROM LABOUR. And it's a hammering. A 21 vote Labour majority becomes a Plaid majority of almost 4,000!! This is the first seat that was predictably marginal. So it's all to play for from here on in.

Ceredigion: Plaid hold comfortably. Lib Dems got 3,000 more voters out but Plaid learnt the lesson from 2005.

Llanelli: DRUM ROLL. Remember, Labour have conceded this already. But never say never... 21 votes in it last time. Squeaky bums, squeaky bums. Will the scarfed seductress make it back? That's Helen Mary Jones by the way. I'm high on caffeine now. Pobl y Cwm booze is still tempting.

Cardiff Central: Lib Dem hold.

Neath: Labour hold. Gwenda 'open vowels' Thomas hangs on. Majority down by 3,000. Plaid up 18.6% from last General Election.

Whisper: Carmarthen West heading for a recount.

Dwyfor Meirionydd: Dafydd Elis Thomas popping the champers already? Yes indeedy. Plaid majority up a grand.

Caerphilly: Ron Davies to let Plaid in through the back door??? No, but it was damn close. A 4,000 majority sliced in half. Labour hold.

Scotland: Alex Salmond elected to Scottish parliament in Gordon. Game on.

Whisper: Labour to lose deposit in Ceredigion.

Aberavon: Labour hold. No kidding.

Vale of Clwyd: Labour hold by just 92 votes. Skin of the teeth. Still, if we're going to use words like 'meltdown' these are the kind of seats you'd Labour would have to lose.

Arfon: Can Martin Eaglestone pull off a miracle for Labour? No. Plaid increase their majority. Plaid hold.

Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold. Another reduced majority.

Swansea West: Labour hold. A future First Minister makes his way back to the Senedd. (He'll be watching Rhodri's movements with great interest). Lib Dems (they were right on the second placed tip), finish ahead of Plaid Cymru.

Montgomeryshrie: Lib Dem hold.

Pontypridd: Labour hold but again, majority down by around 20%

Swansea East: Labour hold. Lib Dems in second as predicted.

Merthyr Tydfil: Labour hold but majority down 23%. Plaid vote down.

Whisper: Tories ahead in Vale of Clwyd. By a whisker.

Nonsense prediction: Plaid to win Merthyr. Would require a swing of 23%. Anyone there or know anyone who is there? If it's true I'll streak through the BBC studio.

Cynon Valley: Labour hold. Just over the mountain from me. Plaid up, Labour down. No big shakes there.

Blaenau Gwent: Independent candidate Trish Law romps home with a staggering 12,722 votes, 54.1% of the vote. Hold.
In her victory speech, 'Trish' as she is affectionately known, said: "The people of Blaenau Gwent have once again sent a message to the main political parties that they really must put people before politics." The Independent culture (no not the one Plaid Cymru won't talk about) of Welsh politics lives on.

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