When a defeat feels like a defeat
Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Remember back before the election, when Rhodri Morgan said he'd "leave the stage" if he thought Labour had suffered a defeat? Then, like spoons to a chocolate fudge cake in fat camp, we all leapt in with wild estimations about what that might constitute.

Most people settled on 24 seats. Yeah, that would be a bad enough result all right.

But.

He didn't say anything about number of seats.

Instead, what he talked about was translating votes into a Labour government: "If they want Labour to continue, then Labour voters have got to come out and vote Labour - that's the key message."

So, could it still be a 'defeat' if the other three parties come together to form a rainbow coalition?

Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can't persuade one of the other parties to join a formal coalition?

Could it still be a 'defeat' if he can only secure 'general support' and not the 'confidence and supply' arrangement which would put the government in a more secure position?

Who knows (apart from Rhodri), 26 seats could be a 'defeat' after all...

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posted by Blamerbell @ 9:49 pm,

13 Comments:

At 10:34 pm, Blogger Cymro said...

A coalition with th Lib Dems would also be defeat for Labour. Just because hanging around Mike German generally show that you're a loser.

 
At 10:39 pm, Blogger Cymro said...

I take that back. Mike German is an excellent person with many fine qualities. And he is extraordinarily witty and generally brilliant in every way.

But anything is a defeat for Labour now unless they strike a deal with Plaid. It's equally certain that nobody will admit that, and Rhodri will soldier on until global warming puts him out of his misery.

 
At 11:20 pm, Blogger Ted Jones said...

If getting Labour's worst share of the vote since the First World War isn't a defeat what is?

Rhodri basically has two choices now. 1, he goes with the Lib Dems and his legacy will be free swimming for OAPs or 2, he goes with Plaid and helps deliver a proper Parliament.

option 2 is obviously high risk for all concerned, but what has he got to lose? He can give Leighton Andrews the man that has destroyed his reputation as a vote winner, by coming up with the most stupid election strategy in living memory, a kick in the teeth by really pissing off the unionist wing of his party.

fortune favours the brave as they say

 
At 11:28 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Shame on you, Ted.

I went to all the effort of translating Maori proverbs and that cliche is the best you can come up with??

 
At 11:34 pm, Blogger bethan said...

at this time of night that's all he can come up with, yes Blamberbell! Can you or any other blogger do better I say?

 
At 11:36 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

At this time of night I've just written a whole bloody blog entry!

Live, eat and drink it and then spit it out and wash my face in it before going to bed.

 
At 11:37 pm, Blogger hafod said...

Carpe diem, as Delboy Trotter would say, Carpe Diem.

Seize the day, Rhodney.

 
At 11:59 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If getting Labour's worst share of the vote since the First World War

Lowest in a Welsh Assembly Election, yes, lower than in any Westminster Election for ages (but wasn't that also the case in 1999?), but not the lowest all-Wales share of the vote since 1918; Labour polled a slightly lower percentage in the 1999 European Elections (closest Plaid has ever come to coming first in Wales IIRC) and about the same percentage in the 2004 European Elections. And turnouts in European Elections are generally closer to those seen in Assembly Elections than those seen in Westminster elections.
Not that it really matters much.

isn't a defeat what is?

Electorally, it would have to be not winning the most seats, wouldn't it?
Not sure about *politically* though.

-=-
"N.C.M.B.R."

 
At 12:38 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Rhodri does not form a government, it would make it a lot easier for a leadership challenge to be mounted by someone, then if he was First Minister.

He might have very little choice if their is a Rainbow coalition

 
At 9:09 am, Blogger Che Grav-ara said...

I would argue that not getting a majority is a defeat. Rhodri said if the people of Wales don't want him thats their choice. Surely by reducing the number of Labour seats to 26 they have sent a clear message that they dont want him.

I wouldnt say resignation is necessary for failing to get a majority, but only 26 seats and their worst election result in Wales in recent memory is definatly reason to step aside.

 
At 11:45 am, Blogger Glyn Davies said...

Rhodri Morgan is finished as First Minister - and the only question remaining is whether he is put out of his misery next week - or dies by a thousand cuts in the autumn.

It is possible (even likely that Ieuan Wyn Jones will be First Minister by the end of next week, and Rhodri Morgan will have resigned as Leader of the Labour Group.

 
At 1:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

People should remember that no party can or ever has gotten a majority in the Assembly, its a Propotional System

 
At 1:38 pm, Blogger Marcusian said...

Its so very difficult to speculate on what i think should be done when i dont know what is being offered...

I think the Lib Dems cant deliver on any deal to be honest, i think the only way it could deliver is if it got PR in local government to take back to its members (lets be honest that isnt going to happen).

If Plaid want a referendum on scottish style parliament powers and a welsh language act then i would agree on that. I mean the government of Wales act offers that anyway in a roundabout way.

The rainbow coalition is a redundant idea to me, because the only way and agreement can be reached is by ditching key cornerstone promises.

Does anyone honestly (and i dont mean they thought about it while reading golwg) have an idea what the deal breakers are? or whats been offered?

 

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