The End
Tuesday, June 26, 2007

I had hoped to bring you news of a potentially historic step forward for Welsh politics. But as usual, the politicians have contrived to delay proceedings.

Plaid's assembly group was due to meet today to make a final decision on whether to recommend a Rainbow or a Red-Green coalition to its National Council on July 7. However, they've decided to postpone that meeting until tomorrow because Labour's Welsh Executive meets this evening.

I understand that the momentum is still with the 'Brown' deal. In the short term it may seem less ambitious, but in the long term it would deliver more powers to Wales (if they can win a referendum) and bring Plaid closer to its long-term aim of independence.

Perversely, an election campaign spent convincing people that government mattered more to Plaid Cymru than distant objectives of autonomy looks to have put Plaid in a position to push for the latter while surrendering the opportunity to take overall control of the former. It seems also that Labour's veiled threat to make life difficult for a Rainbow government in Westminster has carried some weight.

But there's also the problem of the Liberal Democrats. At the outset, they could have had a deal with Plaid or Labour. But now, a significant chunk of AMs from both parties have serious reservations whether they can be trusted. After all, they will host a leadership election in the next few months and there's no telling whether that would preempt another flip flop.

So, I won't get closure in time for my last ever post. But as this chap knows only too well, there's never a good time to bow out.

I had written a long and tortuous adieu. But I've shelved that. Instead, take a look at the archives, if you wish, and judge for yourselves.

All I will say is that I've had great fun writing this blog and watching it grow. By the end, it was almost a part-time job (albeit one that paid even less than I got on the fruit counter at Tesco). Now that I have a full-time job, I'm afraid it's not going to be possible to continue.

It's a shame, because it's been a blast. It has never ceased to amuse me that I'm hated by some for being 'anti-Plaid' and loathed by others for being 'anti-Labour'. The Tories are too jolly to care and the Liberal Democrats are just happy to be talked about. In the context of Welsh politics, that's probably just about the right mix.

This is my 600th post - time to say goodbye and hang up the briefs.

Thanks for reading.

Hwyl fawr!

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:46 pm, ,


It's not over till it's over
Monday, June 25, 2007

The Western Mail is today reporting that the 'Brown' coalition is more or less a done deal. Just a few days ago, all their correspondents were still predicting a rainbow coalition.

They've also called a Lab-Lib deal and a previous rainbow pact as a formality before now.

If there's one thing this circus of tribalism and talks has taught us, it's that there's no telling what will happen next.

Plaid have a group meeting tomorrow, and the only thing that's certain is that it will go on for bloody ages. I can think of at least five AMs who will dig in for a fight. Don't expect the Rainbowistas to simply bend over and accept their fate.

UPDATE: BBC Wales' Westminster Correspondent David Cornock has given up asking his bosses for a blog and pushed ahead with his own. It's helpfully titled notabbcblog.blogspot.com

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:00 pm, ,


The Blamers 2007 - A star-bereft award ceremony
Sunday, June 24, 2007

The more prescient among you may have come across whispers in some far-flung corner of the internet hinting that this blog will soon be following Tony Blair into retirement. These whispers have some truth, because I started them. (As Peter Black writes today, why would cheeky Wales on Sunday Journalist Matt Withers find his own stories when he can just pinch them from someone else?)

More on that later. In the meantime, I shall press on with my end of year political awards. Of course, it's not the end of the year and on current form no politician really deserves an award, but now is my last chance.

Regular readers will know that this blog has been enriched over the past eight months by references to certain characters who have very kindly allowed me to reduce their incredibly complex personalities to simple stereotypes. Either that, or they've been too stupid or lazy to notice:)

So, I would like to present The Blamers 2007. A pair of my crusty briefs will be finding its way to the lucky winners, with grateful thanks from Wales' first and only blogespondent.

Heinz Ketchup Award for Best Source: Jonathan Morgan
After taking part in my Honest John experiment, Tory golden boy Jonathan Morgan really got into blogging. So much so, in fact, that he began to email me with other feature ideas. Would I like to start an item about 'hilarious' anecdotes from the campaign trail? JM's own offering went something like this:

"Towards the end of the discussion a man stood up and introduced himself as being from Germany. As a pro European I have no problem with this although he proceeded to lecture us on the environmental damage caused by war, and how the illegal Iraq war had been a disaster... Being lectured by a German on international conflict is a bit like being lecture by King Herod on 1st century AD methods of childcare!"

Jonathan, that's why I'm the journalist and you're the politician. Let's keep it that way.

Marmite Award for Splitting the Audience: Huw Lewis
You either love him or hate him, it seems. I need only mention his name and you will split into your various tribal camps, either extolling his virtues or hoping to wipe your behinds with his political career. I do hope he becomes First Minister one day, because I suspect a medieval battle will break out on the streets of Cardiff.

Poor Huw. I reckon what he needs is a Red-Green coalition and a great big hug from Mohammad Ashgar. They have more in common than you might think.

Carol Voredman Award for Services to Spelling: Glyn Davies
This was a close one, because Alun Cairns' crap spelling has taken on an aquatic theme of late, what with Alex Salmon AND Salmon Rushdie in the news recently. But Glyn still pips it for his 'bulldozer' approach to blogging and the English language generally, which always makes for an entertaining read.

Oxfam Award for Buying the Ties Most People Wouldn't Even Use to Hang Themselves: Peter Black
Proof that there's nothing geeky about being a blogger.

British Heart Foundation Award for Buying the Scarves Most People Wouldn't Even Use to Hang Themselves: Helen Mary Jones
It took me a long time before plucking up the courage to take the piss out of HMJ for her loyalty to pashminas. I genuinely thought she had some sort of hideous neck disfigurement and therefore it would be in poor taste to make jokes at her expense.

Turns out she just happens to really like scarves, which is to be admired as scarf-wearing can sometimes be a hazardous activity.

Armitage Shanks Award for Taking all the Shit: Rhodri Glyn Thomas
Runner-up: Carl Sargeant
By April, I considered this blog to be doing reasonably well. I made absolutely no attempt to remain anonymous and for obvious reasons, most people in Plaid Cymru knew who was behind the briefs. I was shocked, therefore, to discover that in the run up to the election Rhodri Glyn Thomas had been probing the BBC's political editor to find out the identity of the 'diawl' who continually mocked him on the internet. Perhaps if he spent less time eating buffet lunches he'd have been able to work it out himself:)

Joseph Goebbels Award for Frank and Open debate: Leighton Andrews
You lot are a volatile bunch, and no matter what I write, someone usually likes to take offence. That's why I've steered clear of taking on all of you en masse. You are most dangerous when you are united (even if you do write an awful lot of rubbish in the comments sometimes!). Unfortunately, nobody told Leighton Andrews (and if they did, he pressed on anyway). The result? This little ding dong. Hopefully the blogosphere has emerged all the stronger for it. Group hug.

Just William Award for Services to Short Trousers: Alun Cairns
Runner-up: Ioan Bellin
According to his Facebook page, the Conservatives' new baby-faced Education spokesman has been out clubbing twice this week AND he's been frolicking with the rah-rahs in the annual Hunt Ball. Despite that, he still gets asked for I.D. when trying to buy bottles of Pimm's for the gymkhana and he's never been allowed onto the scariest rollercoasters at Alton Towers.

Nevertheless, Alun continues to punch above his weight in the assembly, if only because he weighs less than Eleanor Burnham's make-up bag.

And that concludes The Blamers 2007. No politicians were harmed in the making of this blog entry, though certain egos have again taken a bit of a beating:)

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posted by Blamerbell @ 6:20 pm, ,


Big fat amnesty event
Friday, June 22, 2007

Not another sausage roll and wine in a box gathering to keep Rhodri Glyn Thomas nourished and lubricated, I hear you cry.

Well, no.

Instead, it's my somewhat novel and absolutely not likely to happen suggestion to clear the air if or when the assembly gets full law-making powers and twenty extra members.

Over the last tortuous couple of months, one thing has become abundantly clear: some AMs are in the wrong political party.

Of course, they'd never own up to it, and there's something very British about that. It's like when we accidentally take the wrong turning in the car. The easiest thing to do is to turn around right away and double back. But something in us makes us persevere - 'If I just take this left and then follow that road it'll all be... ah, bollocks!'.

Some of our AMs, I fear, are lost in the Stevenage roundabout network. Their political compasses are way off track.

And so, when the assembly inevitably expands some time in the future, why not have an amnesty so that politicians can start again with a clean slate and stand on a different ticket?

We already know that Glyn Davies voted Plaid Cymru, Leighton Andrews was a Liberal and Alun Davies was a big fish in Plaid. As for Mohammad Ashgar, there's a story doing the rounds that he tried to join every other party (bar the BNP) before eventually stumbling into bed with Newport's hordes of Welsh nationalists.

More recently, it seems there are people in Labour who should be in Plaid and people in Plaid who should be with the Tories. There are people with the Tories who should be in UKIP and as for the Lib Dems, well, they could probably take their pick.

They know who they are. Perhaps we should send them the membership forms, just to give them something to think about?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:29 pm, ,


Farcembly?
Thursday, June 21, 2007

Today's twist: Labour MPs have told Rhodri to cut out his after dark soirees with Adam Price and IWJ and snuggle up to Mike German and the Lib Dems instead.

The Western Mail's Tomos Livingstone is now predicting a Rainbow coalition will rise from the ashes of the Red-Green talks, while Peter Black says everyone should get a move on.

Quite right. With more waffle than a Birdseye potato processing factory flying through the air in Cardiff Bay, little actual work has been going on. There are still no committees, for instance, so Thursdays are just used for filing fan mail and eating subsidised lunches.

Those in the Welsh political bubble think this is all just fine. These are exciting times. This is the new politics. And other such guff.

But outside, in the real world, it doesn't look quite so groundbreaking. People are simply wondering why they aren't getting on with it.

At the outset, every new twist seemed to offer endless intrigue and interest. But now, 'developments' are treading over old ground. Labour + the Lib Dems? We've been there before.

How many times, I wonder, can this cycle repeat itself before the whole thing descends into farce?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 pm, ,


What Ieuan wants
Wednesday, June 20, 2007

No decision yesterday in Plaid's group meeting, so that means the future governance of Wales is likely to hinge on next Tuesday's weekly get-together.

Some people have already been speculating about the way Plaid AMs will vote, with almost everyone agreeing that Ieuan Wyn Jones is in the Rainbow camp.

Of course, he would just say he wants whatever's best for Wales, which is a bit like that ruthless lady from the Apprentice saying she wants what's best for Alan Sugar.

His own personal political inflections (and ambitions) must inevitably be playing a huge part in his thinking. It's just that he hasn't bothered sharing them with the rest of us. The BBC reports that he'll be meeting party members across Wales shortly to "explain the choice he believes Plaid should make." I'd wager he'll be doing a lot more tergiversating (love that word) than explaining, given that the details of the Red-Green pact have yet to be revealed.

IWJ is a very shrewd politician, even if there is something Yorkshire Terrieresque about his television appearances. And you can bet that whichever way the group votes next Tuesday (if indeed it is next Tuesday), it will subsequently appear to be the option Ieuan has 'preferred' for some time. If you like, he has hard-boiled the egg before it has had a chance to splatter all over his face.

But in the meantime, he can influence that decision. In the end, whether we advance towards a Rainbow or a Red-Green government comes down to the fancy of fifteen Plaid AMs. Ieuan need only convince seven of them and history is his (although a few of them need no convincing).

There is, however, one problem: the deal the negotiating team have been working on feverishly with Labour. What if that document ends up matching the All-Wales Accord on most issues, and trumping it on the key issues of the Welsh language and a referendum on further powers? After all, Adam Price is involved again, and we all know what he wants.

If that were the case, the Rainbow might become very difficult to defend and some of its advocates may be forced to recognise that perhaps one of its attractions was getting closer to the Tories all along.

What Ieuan wants may not necessarily be what he gets. Either way, though, he won't let on.

1414 UPDATE: In one minute I will be respecting a moment of contemplation and support for BBC journalist Alan Johnston (left) who has now been missing for 100 days. You can sign the petition and read more about the BBC's campaign for his release HERE.

On an altogether different note, everyone's favourite dog-handling, vest-wearing bald guy has written his idyosyncratic take on the world of Welsh blogging, which you can read HERE.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:54 pm, ,


Assembly FC
Tuesday, June 19, 2007

From Alun Davies AM:

Dear all,

Somewhat surprisingly, and certainly unbelievably [no kidding], I have been asked to captain the Assembly's Football Team in the annual Parliamentary Shield competition supported [somewhat ironically] by McDonald's.

This year the [pissup] event takes place in London on the weekend of the 4th and 5th August, giving us the chance to play against elected representatives from Westminster, the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Scottish Parliament for the Parliamentary Shield and a [happy meal] cheque for the charity of our choice.

By taking part in the tournament we not only have the opportunity to show off our footballing skills (!) and win money for charity but we also have the chance to [get drunk with] meet many colleagues from the different Parliaments and Assemblies across the UK, talk tactics with our celebrity manager Ian Rush and watch the Community Shield match between Manchester United and Chelsea at the new Wembley stadium the following day (Sunday 5th August)! [uh oh, freebie alert]

If you don't feel you are able to join in the actual football game (but have
a husband, wife or partner who would) then you are more than welcome to join the team! [Note further gratuitous use of the exclamation mark!]

If you are interested in joining us or would like to find out more about the
tournament then please contact me and I will endeavour to answer any
questions that you may have. [!!!]

Places in the squad are limited to 15 so if I could ask that you let me know
of your interest before Thursday (21st June) so that I can ensure you are
sent all of the relevant details ASAP.

Best regards,
Alun

Alun Davies AC / AM

Llafur - Y Canolbarth a'r Gorllewin
Labour - Mid and West Wales
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Well, isn't that droll? Anyway, I'm appointing myself manager, so heregoes:

Goalkeeper: Dafydd El. Nothing gets past him, and if it did he'd glass them with a bottle of Ty Nant.

Left Back: Huw Lewis. Didn't get promoted, see.
Right Back: Where we started if Mike German does another u-turn.
Centre Back: Rosemary Butler. The James Collins of AFC.
Centre Back: Carl Sargeant. Charged with mopping up.

Left Wing: Helen Mary Jones
Right Wing: Ieuan Wyn Jones
Deputy Midfield Ball-winner with responsibility for passing sideways: Leighton Andrews
Playmaker: Alun Cairns (if he can get time off school)

Up front: Eleanor Burnham and Peter Black

Referee: Trish the Law

UPDATE: Page six of today's Western Mail - can anyone spot something funny?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:07 pm, ,


Lib Dems won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Monday, June 18, 2007

A while back, I wrote a post titled Red + Green = Brown. It seems I was being more prophetic than I had intended, since it was written on the day Gordon Brown came to town. From that moment, the Red-Green deal has had a whole lot more momentum.

Why?

Well, Gordon doesn't really fancy beginning his premiership with two rogue Celtic states gnawing at his ankles. A rainbow coalition in Wales would see the Tories back in power and would give David Cameron a huge PR boost. Worse still, Labour would look like a party of opposition again.

New Labour arguably won the last two general elections on the waning momentum of their enormous first victory in 1997. Ten years ago, Tony Blair had his cake and ate it, feeding on a Britain bloated with optimism. Now, there's barely a crumb of that good will left.

Gordon Brown is going to have to rebuild. Scotland is already lost, but he can't afford to lose too much more ground. Rhodri Morgan says he spoke to the PM in waiting about the situation in Wales. I'd imagine it was the other way around. Brown probably spoke to Rhodri and told him to sort it out.

But Rhodri being Rhodri decided he'd muddy the waters by opening the door to the Lib Dems again and the media have rushed to have a merry little walk around Mike German's well-worn garden path.

There isn't much else Mike German can say other than if Plaid and Labour agree on a document, he'll go back to his party and "look again". He's still "committed" to the All-Wales Accord and has no intention of "steering that ship up onto the rocks". Hardly the words of a man with his hands on the rainbow rug, poised to pull.

And if he did pull, he might only fall flat on his arse. By that time, a Red-Green document would already have been drawn up. Much like the All-Wales Accord, it would be released to the public and, if the election results are anything to go by, it would excite more people than any Lib-Lab alternative. But much worse than that, it was the Lib Dems who were ridiculed for steering the rainbow ship up onto the rocks; they could really suffer from sinking the Red-Green ship too.

UPDATE: Something for the Lib Dems to sing and dance about at last: Britain's Got Talent winner, Pol Pot, is a former Lib Dem councillor.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:33 pm, ,


Blamerbell en Paris
Sunday, June 17, 2007

What's happening then?

Don't expect me to tell you:)

As you may know, I've been away at the CNN European blog awards, which I'm pleased to say I won.

I went to Paris for the ceremony on Friday and it was actually rather a big deal. There was a huge media fair being held at the Porte de Versailles which, for future reference, is not really taxiable from the centre of town (unless you are willing to remortgage your maison).

The awards ceremony itself was quite a grand affair - there were a number of elaborate speeches before I was eventually called. I was given the prize by a chap called Emmanuel Chain, who is sort of the French Jeremy Paxman (for looks, think David Ginola rather than Tony Adams). I'm sure he said some nice things about my blog but it was all in French and all I can remember from GCSE is how to ask for an ice cream or report that my cello has been stolen.

And that is very much how the rest of the evening went - much French being spoken and much failing to understand on my part. Later, I went to a student party with the guy who runs the second placed blog, drank a couple of beers and asked for lots of ice creams.

Incidentally, if you want a taxi in Paris, don't automatically assume that a taxi sitting in a taxi rank with its light on and door open is necessarily willing to take you anywhere. I got in, sat down, said 'Gare du Nord', even said please (though now I wish I hadn't bothered) before I was unceremoniously ejected by an all too rude Frenchman.

So, it's good to be back in the UK. And it's great to see that Welsh politics has been as unpredictable as ever in my absence.

Hopefully, I'll catch up with all that later, though I hear Plaid are now leaning towards a deal with Labour, if only because Labour will find it almost impossible to deliver it.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:54 pm, ,


What's happening to the assembly on the telly?
Thursday, June 14, 2007

Once upon a time I went for a chat with someone in the assembly's Cathays Park building.

I had to wait a while before the meeting, so I sat in the lobby. It's quite a grand place actually - lots of marble and columns and that kind of guff.

Anyway, my most vivid memory of this little spell was sitting next to a giant screen which, after a while, began broadcasting live coverage of the latest plenary session.

The receptionist, clearly fed up with the likes of Janice Gregory and Eleanor Burnham breaching her peace, stood up and turned it off. And that was that. Even the assembly can't stand to watch the assembly.

So it's no surprise, then, that it may soon be impossible to watch proceedings live on television. S4C2 currently broadcasts those thrilling debates each Tuesday to Thursday when the assembly is in session. But it now has plans to broadcast Welsh language children's programmes instead.

This story appeared in the Western Mail at the beginning of May and Sanddef flagged it up soon afterwards. Then, a fortnight later, S4C published THIS consultation paper detailing three possible ways forward:

Option 1
• Continue to broadcast the proceedings of the National Assembly during term and fit the new programmes around it.

Option 2
• Cease broadcast of proceedings of National Assembly and broadcast an uninterrupted New Service 7 days a week.

Option 3
• Continue to broadcast National Assembly proceedings as at present and also broadcast an uninterrupted New Service 7 days a week using additional and new capacity. (unlikely)

I'm not entirely sure where we are with this at the moment, but I've heard that the service could be moved entirely online. Given the reliability of the assembly's website, this would be a real blow.

Statistically, I wouldn't be surprised if more people watch the Ironing Channel than S4C2's political coverage. So in the end, it comes down to profitability versus public service, and nothing obliges S4C2 to continue to pump out the Senedd's mostly inconsequential drones.

Nevertheless, I'd be sad to see it go - I really like the 'totty' who present it:)

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By the way, I'm now off to Paris for the CNN Blog Awards ceremony so I'm afraid there will be no posting until Sunday evening at the earliest.

That means I won't be able to react to Plaid Cymru's National Executive meeting on Saturday or any other minor political events I would normally blow out of all proportion. There are, of course, plenty of other great blogs to check out in the meantime, including THIS offering from the Western Mail's new Senedd correspondent.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 3:51 pm, ,


Plaid won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Wednesday, June 13, 2007

There's been a lot of chatter over the past few hours about Plaid re-opening talks with Labour over a formal coalition.

Some of the usual suspects, bless them, have been getting quite upset. Stomp, stomp, stomp. We want our bloody rainbow.

Well, as I said yesterday, they are still odds on to get it. So kem down.

Have any of Plaid's rainbowista AMs publicly changed their position? No.

Has Plaid's leader given any indication that he's keen on a deal with Labour? No.

Has Gordon Brown suggested that he'd whip up Labour MPs to get a referendum on further powers through parliament? No (in fact Tomos Livingstone reports Labour MPs saying quite the opposite).

Were Tory and Plaid AMs drinking together in the Eli Jenkins last night? Probably.

Do we know who the identity of the 'senior source' that broke the red-green story? No.

Worth bearing in mind, I think, that I've seen people quoted as 'senior sources' before who were fourth placed constituency candidates in the assembly election. Can this chap persuade the majority of the party's AMs, party members and national council to change their mind? You decide.

But taking all that's been said in the past few weeks, it seems Plaid's assembly group still overwhelmingly back a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. They wouldn't have dismissed the red-green option so quickly on the previous occasion if that wasn't the case.

And it is they, ultimately, who will make the decision which will go forward to the national council in July. The national exeucitve, which meets on Saturday in Aberystwyth, is merely an advisory body. So, whatever happens, there will not be another Lib Dem moment, whereby a bunch of obscure councillors and receding hairlines overrule directly elected politicians.
*****************************************
Plenary Live:

Alun Cairns has had a hair cut - makes him look even more like the work experience kid.

Eleanor Burnham just attempted to break the world speed-speaking record while asking her tabled question to the new Sustainability Minister, Jane Davidson.

According to Ms Davidson's website, incidentally, she's still the Education Minister.

Of course, to the majority of the population, all this means nothing at all, so I may stop now. They're talking about footpaths again...

Has Brynle Williams been sunbathing - or has he just done up his shirt collar too tight? He's certainly very red. Perhaps he's getting worked up about those badgers he's prattling on about.

Now, the moment we've all been waiting for: Questions to the Minister for Education, Culture, the Welsh Language, Laid-back Self-confidence, Going Grey Gracefully and Everything Else on the Universe just to make Jane Davidson feel bad.

Alun Davies quotes from Alun Cairns' blog. The little man favours academic selection. Of course, I expect Alun Cairns to retaliate with a quotation from Alun Davies' blog: 'Happy Christmas'.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:22 pm, ,


How long has Rhodders got?
Tuesday, June 12, 2007

That's the question I was asked today. And for once I didn't chafe my precious parts sitting on that well-worn pundit's fence. Instead, I leapt tentatively into the 'He'll be gone by autumn' camp.

Predictions are usually wrong in Welsh politics and there are plenty of twists and turns yet. But you'd have to say that, on current form, the rainbowistas look set to make a move, perhaps before the summer's out.

Quite simply, Ieuan Wyn Jones wants it too much. Tactically, it might be better to keep the Labour option open as long as possible to at least make it look like the rainbow was forced to make a move. But at the moment, IWJ's poker face is about as convincing as a Didier Drogba dive.

If it were to go ahead, though, I think one of the biggest changes might be in 'foreign affairs'. I know that isn't exactly part of the assembly's remit, but with a nationalist first minister in Scotland and a sympathetic ear in Northern Ireland, the rainbow would look to put pressure on Westminster as part of an alliance with the other devolved institutions.

This could be anything from stating a view on foreign policy (remember Rhodri's refusal to have a view on Iraq?) to demanding greater representation in negotiations with the European Union. I had a chat with Plaid's Adam Price MP about this yesterday before a programme on Radio Scotland, and he suggested the Celtic clout of the devolved governments would look to work as a pincer movement on Westminster to secure, for example, a better financial settlement.

Alex Salmond has already made calls for the resumption of Joint Ministerial Committees between the devolved institutions, and also 'Council of the Isles' style meetings (including the Republic of Ireland), with the UK government.

Of course, these may go ahead whether Rhodri stays or not, but I imagine a Plaid-led government would be anxious to sign-up and secure added legitimacy for the assembly as a national institution in its own right.
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The latest offering from the sparingly-used poll tool:

When will Rhodri go?
Between now and the summer recess
Just after the summer recess
The autumn budget
Christmas
Sometime in 2008
Sometime in 2009
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com


***************************************************
UPDATE: Impeccable timing as ever.

Vaughan Roderick reports that Plaid are set to agree to further talks on a deal with Labour in their meeting this evening.

Labour have apparently offered at least three cabinet positions and firm promises on a referendum on further powers, a commission to review the Barnett formula and a Welsh Language act.

To be updated...

Sources in Plaid say it'll have to be an offer they can't refuse. Could Brown sanction the passage of a referendum through the Houses of Parliament? After all, he can't be keen on the idea of starting his premiership with Labour in opposition in both Scotland and Wales.

Either that, or Ieuan Wyn Jones has finally got control of his poker face. This might just be the smokescreen that enables him to say Labour can't deliver.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 4:00 pm, ,


Wee bits and bobs
Monday, June 11, 2007

I'll be taking part in a live debate over on BBC Radio Scotland this evening (10pm) about the future of devolution.

The new Scottish government, led by Alex Salmond, isn't too pleased that Tony Blair apparently struck a deal which could lead to the Lockerbie bomber being sent back to Libya to complete his prison sentence without informing it.

Meanwhile, the Secretary of State and the First Minister in Wales are on such good terms that Rhodri Morgan is backing Harriet Harman for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour party.

You can listen to the programme, Scotland at Ten, online this evening.

I am also booked to pop up again on tomorrow's AM/PM on BBC 2 Wales - better than Big Brother every time:)

In other news, Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones has torn up Labour's olive branch, ground it into sawdust, shoved it in his mouth and sprayed it all over Rhodri Morgan's surprised face shouting "Boo hoo to you, Sir!"

He still fancies forming his own government, you see.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 7:25 pm, ,


Tories Cook up a storm

You all scoffed last week when I hinted the Conservatives might try and bring down the government over lack of movement on a new Welsh language act.

But with travel agent Thomas Cook appearing stubbornly monoglot in its unwillingness to embrace the Welsh language, the Tories made the first move.

They are calling for a review of the Welsh language act. You'll remember that Labour's legislative proposals stopped short of it, though it's a big deal in the proposed rainbow coalition programme for government.

Plaid have since chipped in with their own calls for increased Welsh language legislation. Well, they do everything together these days, don't they?

Labour's masterplan is to exclude the Conservatives from the consensus they have been seeking. They are trying to raise issues which isolate the Tories. But the men in blue are attempting quite the reverse and on today's form, seem to be having some success.

UPDATE:
Q: What's the worst thing you can do when you're embroiled in a storm about the Welsh language?

A: Put up a bi-lingual sign which butchers it.

Even Jade Goody would do a better job of public relations than that.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 3:22 pm, ,


Blamerbell on Sunday
Sunday, June 10, 2007

This week, I shall be deputising for Matt Withers while Wales' favourite only Sunday political journalist goes off to Italy to bronze his bald patch.

The column is called 'Spin Doctor' because 'Matt Withers' didn't sound sexy enough for the cesspit of sleaze and crap metaphors that is contemporary Welsh politics.

And so, I am asking you please to send me little tidbits of gossip and amusing goings-on from the Welsh political world this week. There's got to be something interesting happening. Do it for the sake of your own vanity, or to bugger your boss. Whatever, just whop it in an EMAIL to me.

It kind of defeats the point if you write it in the comments section, so let's reserve that for made-up gossip instead.

I'll make a start...

Peter Black is Swansea West Warhammer champion, 2007.

Carl Sargeant turned down the Economic Development, Health and Education portfolios before eventually settling for the 'You get to sit around the cabinet but you can't make notes' brief.

Jonathan Morgan has announced he won't be contesting Cardiff North in the next general election so he can concentrate solely on becoming Nick Bourne's biographer.

And Plaid's Gang of Four are currently in the recording studio preparing to release a single - "4 become 1". It's thought to include the lyrics, "Be a little wiser baby, put it off, put it off."

And that's as near as you'll get to a popular culture reference from me:)

Email address: blamerbell@googlemail.com

Before Thursday please.

I look forward to hearing from you soon.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 8:20 pm, ,


Rhodri's letters
Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Here's what Rhodri Morgan is offering Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems in exchange for keeping him in power. Compare and contrast...
**********************************************

Dear Ieuan,

How about some of this?

1. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determins the way the Assembly is funded.

2. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.

3. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.

4. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.

5. a joint group to be set up involving Plaid Cymru and Labour members in the assembly and Westminster to assess the pre-conditions suitable for a referendum to be triggered on Scottish-style powers and to advise on the preparations which would need to be put in place prior to a referendum being called.

6. regular meetings between the First Minister and the leader of the opposition e.g on a weekly basis.

Tories r evil 4 eva.

Rhodri. xxx
**********************************************

Dear Mike,

Fancy a ride on my aeroplane? Here's what's on board:

1. an opportunity to work with government ministers on bidding for the powers to legislate on the Welsh Language and affordable housing.

2. To take part in an "even-handed" and "seen to be independent" inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a
Liberal Democrat on the Barnett Formula - which determines the way the Assembly is funded.

3. Bilateral "early" discussions on the Assembly's Budget.

4. A moratorium on existing proposals for changes at community hospital level and that already agreed changes in District General Hospital serves are not implemented unless and until associated community services are in place.

5. to set up a cross-party team to explore and report upon the practical experience of introducing proportional representation (the single transferable vote system) in local government in Scotland.

6. to involve other parties in significant public appointments e.g. chairs of NHS trusts.

Let's do it. Yeah. Groovy.

Rhodders. X
**********************************************

So, Rhodri's taken the sting out of the health issue by giving in on hospital reconfiguration, for the time being.

But how come the Lib Dems get offered deals on the Welsh language and housing and not Plaid?

Looks like Rhodri's trying to become the prism which splits the rainbow.

The opposition parties could, of course, do most of this themselves with Labour in opposition. But without taking power "willy nilly", will they be given the opportunity to get worked up enough to justify a vote of no confidence?
**********************************************

Plaid's Adam Price MP is blogging again. Today he sets out his conditions for a deal with Labour, which he says is preferable to an arrangement with the Tories. These include a formal coalition with Plaid AMs in the cabinet, a joint programme for government and a referendum on full law-making powers within four years.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 5:07 pm, ,


Reasons to disagree on first day back at the office

Rhodri Morgan today unveils the Labour manifesto his government's legislative programme, with the emphasis on CONSENSUS.

So committed is he to this cause, he failed to take part in a televised debate with the leaders of the other parties to explain to the people of Wales what this might actually mean in practice.

If the intention was damage limitation, the effect was quite the opposite; the other leaders spent almost the entire programme reminding viewers of the first minister's absence.

Never mind, Carwyn Jones was deputising and, as ever, sounded like someone from a self-help tape. He managed to tell those agitated nurses to bugger off in really the most relaxing way.

Anyway, the point that the would-be rainbow coup leaders made repeatedly was that the assembly is today being presented with a legislative programme, and yet there was no consultation with the other parties in advance. Labour seem to be saying take it or leave it.

Mike German got as close as possible to facial expression number 3: visibly annoyed. And the others didn't seem too happy either.

I gather the front page (or thereabouts) of the Western Mail will report Ieuan Wyn Jones saying the government has six weeks to deliver or face being kicked out by him and his triple alliance lieutenants. He denied that on television. Apparently he said there would be a 50:50 chance of a putsch vote of no confidence within that time frame.

As I said right back when the Lib Dems finally got their knickers out of Alex Carlile's twist, people will expect the rainbow to move quickly if it is to move at all.

The six weeks figure is a calculated move from Plaid to give Rhodri the spooks. It's playing politics again. But this game is getting a little tiring, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any disagreement today.

Labour are expected to put forward the same bunch of policies they previewed so enthusiastically during the election campaign. For the other parties, there's not much to get worked up about except, perhaps, the issue of the Welsh language.

If Labour go with the legislation they proposed back in April, they will set in motion the process of appointing a Dyfarnydd, falling well short of the new Welsh Language Act demanded by the opposition parties and a number of lobbying organisations. Carwyn Jones tried to prepare the ground for this last week. But it went down as well as a vomit smoothie.

This could well be the first sticking point for the new consensus-building regime. And if there's no agreement - what then? Do the Tories topple Labour because there aren't enough rights for the Welsh language? Or can a government only be brought down over something a bit more life and death?

All the signs are that there'll be a lot of huffing and puffing in the next few weeks, but not much blowing the house down.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:34 am, ,


Time to talk
Tuesday, June 05, 2007

It's 'don't turn up' Tuesday.

First of all, Plaid AMs Leanne Wood and Bethan Jenkins will give the Queen's official opening of the assembly a miss, then Rhodri Morgan will be the only party leader absent from a Week in Week Out special examining what the hell is going on at the top of Welsh government.

Fresh from gaining Wales' first super-ministry, Carwyn Jones will deputise. A sign of things to come, perhaps? Nevertheless, the first minister's absence does rather undermine the point of the programme.

We want answers, and only Rhodri Morgan truly knows what cocked up went on over the past few weeks. It'll certainly be interesting to see how upfront the leaders of the other parties are willing to be about a timetable for a possible rainbow coalition coup.

What are the bottom line issues? And even then, can the government do anything to save its back?

The reality is, surely, that the opposition parties can keep upping the anti. If Labour put all their eggs in one basket, the rainbow partners can just crack them in their face. Labour may offer concessions over hospital reconfiguration, for example, but if they don't go as far as Ieuan Wyn Jones and his buddies demand, then they could have the rug pulled from beneath them at any time.

Personally, I can't see consensus politics going beyond agreeing that this afternoon's champagne is indeed a very good vintage.

Which brings me back to those dungaree-clad social workers, as some of you have so crassly described them in the comments to what was an otherwise quite interesting debate.

And that is surely the point. We had a debate.

Whether or not you agree with Bethan and Leanne, it is vital that we have the argument about the role of the monarchy from time to time. Unfortunately, there is almost no space for the type of views held by these two politicians in the mainstream media, despite the fact that they are shared by a sizable proportion of the population.

Do we elect our leaders or does the Queen appoint them? Are we subjects or citizens? Who decides whether or not we go to war? And is the Queen really the best person to open our assembly?

These are all questions of fundamental importance. They deserve to be discussed. Regrettably, opportunities to do so are all too rare.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:43 am, ,


Everyone's a winner on the Tory front bench
Monday, June 04, 2007

The Conservatives have announced their new shadow ministerial team.

Alun Cairns makes the Education portfolio a Bridgend affair. He is also just about the only assembly member who could literally squeeze into Carwyn Jones' shadow.

All the baggage that goes with that brief has been dished out to Paul Davies, who takes Welsh language, Culture and Sport. Expect this chap to be wheeled out as the Tories' token Mr Welsh over the next four years.

Elsewhere, Brynle Williams gets 'Farming', which is a bit like giving Darren Millar 'Christianity' (unfortunately he gets Environment instead) and Jonathan Morgan sticks with Health.

You can see the full list HERE.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 11:45 am, ,


Plotters snubbed as Rhodri sticks to familiar faces
Thursday, May 31, 2007

Rhodri Morgan's new cabinet:

First Minister: Rhodri Morgan

Minister for Health and Social Services: Edwina Hart

Minister for Education, Culture and the Welsh Language: Carwyn Jones

Minister for the Economy and Transport: Dr Brian Gibbons

Minister for Sustainability and Rural Development: Jane Davidson

Minister for Social Justice and Public Service Delivery: Andrew Davies

Minister for Budget and Business: Jane Hutt

In addition to the seven Cabinet posts above, the First Minister has appointed Carl Sargeant as Chief Whip and Deputy Business Minister. He will attend all Cabinet meetings. The First Minister will also announce the appointment of new Deputy Ministers shortly.

To be updated...

So, here it is at last. The cabinet which will govern Wales for at least the next fortnight.

Despite earning a reputation as an absolutely gafftastic First Minister, Rhodri Morgan ain't stupid. He's identitified three issues which might cause a flare up between the government and the opposition (thus precipitating a vote of no confidence and a rainbow coalition coup) and put Plaid's best friends in charge of each.

Edwina Hart takes control of health to try and weather the storm over hospital reconfiguration, Jane Hutt will have to negotiate the budget (if indeed we get that far) and Carwyn Jones gets a new super ministry to try and ease fears over education and the Welsh language.

All the signs are, therefore, that Rhodri will make it as difficult as he absolutely can for Ieuan Wyn Jones to overthrow his government. That's why he's left the more hostile Leighton Andrews and Huw Lewis out in the cold (though they may still get Deputy Ministerial posts).

But it's a big risk. If the nationalist wing of the Labour party can't deliver the sort of consensus politics which will keep them in power, the unionist camp would be perfectly placed to take the reins and give the rainbow a damn good kicking from the opposition benches.

This is Rhodri's last throw of the dice. But I'm not convinced Ieuan Wyn Jones is willing to miss his turn. Putting Plaid-friendly faces in the key posts is one thing - keeping them there is going to be almost impossible.

UPDATE:

Reaction from Plaid (Rhodri Glyn Thomas): "Rhodri Morgan’s latest cabinet has no change of personnel and therefore there has to be a change of policy and a new sense of urgency if this government is going to make a real difference to lives across Wales.

"We have here the same old tired faces; it is unlikely this cabinet will contain renewed ambition for Wales to go with the new powers of the Assembly."

Reaction from the Conservatives (Nick Bourne): "This has all the hallmarks of the same old Labour pantomime with the same old cast, and the same old lines we've heard for the last eight years.

"This is the cabinet of Labour's Glamorgan mafia. There is no-one west of Swansea, east of Cardiff or north of Pontypridd. So much for governing for the whole of Wales."

Reaction from the Lib Dems: "Umm, who, what, where? Why isn't Mike German in it?"

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posted by Blamerbell @ 3:30 pm, ,