The End
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
I had hoped to bring you news of a potentially historic step forward for Welsh politics. But as usual, the politicians have contrived to delay proceedings.
Plaid's assembly group was due to meet today to make a final decision on whether to recommend a Rainbow or a Red-Green coalition to its National Council on July 7. However, they've decided to postpone that meeting until tomorrow because Labour's Welsh Executive meets this evening.
I understand that the momentum is still with the 'Brown' deal. In the short term it may seem less ambitious, but in the long term it would deliver more powers to Wales (if they can win a referendum) and bring Plaid closer to its long-term aim of independence.
Perversely, an election campaign spent convincing people that government mattered more to Plaid Cymru than distant objectives of autonomy looks to have put Plaid in a position to push for the latter while surrendering the opportunity to take overall control of the former. It seems also that Labour's veiled threat to make life difficult for a Rainbow government in Westminster has carried some weight.
But there's also the problem of the Liberal Democrats. At the outset, they could have had a deal with Plaid or Labour. But now, a significant chunk of AMs from both parties have serious reservations whether they can be trusted. After all, they will host a leadership election in the next few months and there's no telling whether that would preempt another flip flop.
So, I won't get closure in time for my last ever post. But as this chap knows only too well, there's never a good time to bow out.
I had written a long and tortuous adieu. But I've shelved that. Instead, take a look at the archives, if you wish, and judge for yourselves.
All I will say is that I've had great fun writing this blog and watching it grow. By the end, it was almost a part-time job (albeit one that paid even less than I got on the fruit counter at Tesco). Now that I have a full-time job, I'm afraid it's not going to be possible to continue.
It's a shame, because it's been a blast. It has never ceased to amuse me that I'm hated by some for being 'anti-Plaid' and loathed by others for being 'anti-Labour'. The Tories are too jolly to care and the Liberal Democrats are just happy to be talked about. In the context of Welsh politics, that's probably just about the right mix.
This is my 600th post - time to say goodbye and hang up the briefs.
Thanks for reading.
Hwyl fawr!
Labels: Blamerbell, Goodbye, National Assembly for Wales, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:46 pm,
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It's not over till it's over
Monday, June 25, 2007
The Western Mail is today reporting that the 'Brown' coalition is more or less a done deal. Just a few days ago, all their correspondents were still predicting a rainbow coalition.
They've also called a Lab-Lib deal and a previous rainbow pact as a formality before now.
If there's one thing this circus of tribalism and talks has taught us, it's that there's no telling what will happen next.
Plaid have a group meeting tomorrow, and the only thing that's certain is that it will go on for bloody ages. I can think of at least five AMs who will dig in for a fight. Don't expect the Rainbowistas to simply bend over and accept their fate.
UPDATE: BBC Wales' Westminster Correspondent David Cornock has given up asking his bosses for a blog and pushed ahead with his own. It's helpfully titled notabbcblog.blogspot.com
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:00 pm,
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Farcembly?
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Today's twist: Labour MPs have told Rhodri to cut out his after dark soirees with Adam Price and IWJ and snuggle up to Mike German and the Lib Dems instead.
The Western Mail's Tomos Livingstone is now predicting a Rainbow coalition will rise from the ashes of the Red-Green talks, while Peter Black says everyone should get a move on.
Quite right. With more waffle than a Birdseye potato processing factory flying through the air in Cardiff Bay, little actual work has been going on. There are still no committees, for instance, so Thursdays are just used for filing fan mail and eating subsidised lunches.
Those in the Welsh political bubble think this is all just fine. These are exciting times. This is the new politics. And other such guff.
But outside, in the real world, it doesn't look quite so groundbreaking. People are simply wondering why they aren't getting on with it.
At the outset, every new twist seemed to offer endless intrigue and interest. But now, 'developments' are treading over old ground. Labour + the Lib Dems? We've been there before.
How many times, I wonder, can this cycle repeat itself before the whole thing descends into farce?
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 pm,
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What Ieuan wants
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
No decision yesterday in Plaid's group meeting, so that means the future governance of Wales is likely to hinge on next Tuesday's weekly get-together.
Some people have already been speculating about the way Plaid AMs will vote, with almost everyone agreeing that Ieuan Wyn Jones is in the Rainbow camp.
Of course, he would just say he wants whatever's best for Wales, which is a bit like that ruthless lady from the Apprentice saying she wants what's best for Alan Sugar.
His own personal political inflections (and ambitions) must inevitably be playing a huge part in his thinking. It's just that he hasn't bothered sharing them with the rest of us. The BBC reports that he'll be meeting party members across Wales shortly to "explain the choice he believes Plaid should make." I'd wager he'll be doing a lot more tergiversating (love that word) than explaining, given that the details of the Red-Green pact have yet to be revealed.
IWJ is a very shrewd politician, even if there is something Yorkshire Terrieresque about his television appearances. And you can bet that whichever way the group votes next Tuesday (if indeed it is next Tuesday), it will subsequently appear to be the option Ieuan has 'preferred' for some time. If you like, he has hard-boiled the egg before it has had a chance to splatter all over his face.
But in the meantime, he can influence that decision. In the end, whether we advance towards a Rainbow or a Red-Green government comes down to the fancy of fifteen Plaid AMs. Ieuan need only convince seven of them and history is his (although a few of them need no convincing).
There is, however, one problem: the deal the negotiating team have been working on feverishly with Labour. What if that document ends up matching the All-Wales Accord on most issues, and trumping it on the key issues of the Welsh language and a referendum on further powers? After all, Adam Price is involved again, and we all know what he wants.
If that were the case, the Rainbow might become very difficult to defend and some of its advocates may be forced to recognise that perhaps one of its attractions was getting closer to the Tories all along.
What Ieuan wants may not necessarily be what he gets. Either way, though, he won't let on.
1414 UPDATE: In one minute I will be respecting a moment of contemplation and support for BBC journalist Alan Johnston (left) who has now been missing for 100 days. You can sign the petition and read more about the BBC's campaign for his release HERE.
On an altogether different note, everyone's favourite dog-handling, vest-wearing bald guy has written his idyosyncratic take on the world of Welsh blogging, which you can read HERE.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:54 pm,
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The Gordon Brown meme
I've been tagged by Iain Dale and Matt Wardman to say two things about Gordon Brown.
Two words, of course, would be easy. Good off! Or bugger luck! Or something like that:)
Anyway, heregoes...
Two things Gordon Brown should be proud of:
His (Ed) Balls
His Cow's lick
Two things he should apologise for:
Supporting the England football team
Cardiff North (or was that Cherie's fault?)
Two things he should do immediately when he becomes PM:
Promote Peter Hain
Demote Peter Hain
Two things he should do while he is PM:
Favours for rich people
Make St David's Day a national
I hereby tag fresh-faced newbie Seneddwr, Sanddef (because he loves everything to do with blogging), and anyone who'd like to share their wisdom with us in the comments because I am still
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, l Assembly for Wales, meme, NationaGordon Brown, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition, two things
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:35 pm,
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Lib Dems won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Monday, June 18, 2007
A while back, I wrote a post titled Red + Green = Brown. It seems I was being more prophetic than I had intended, since it was written on the day Gordon Brown came to town. From that moment, the Red-Green deal has had a whole lot more momentum.
Why?
Well, Gordon doesn't really fancy beginning his premiership with two rogue Celtic states gnawing at his ankles. A rainbow coalition in Wales would see the Tories back in power and would give David Cameron a huge PR boost. Worse still, Labour would look like a party of opposition again.
New Labour arguably won the last two general elections on the waning momentum of their enormous first victory in 1997. Ten years ago, Tony Blair had his cake and ate it, feeding on a Britain bloated with optimism. Now, there's barely a crumb of that good will left.
Gordon Brown is going to have to rebuild. Scotland is already lost, but he can't afford to lose too much more ground. Rhodri Morgan says he spoke to the PM in waiting about the situation in Wales. I'd imagine it was the other way around. Brown probably spoke to Rhodri and told him to sort it out.
But Rhodri being Rhodri decided he'd muddy the waters by opening the door to the Lib Dems again and the media have rushed to have a merry little walk around Mike German's well-worn garden path.
There isn't much else Mike German can say other than if Plaid and Labour agree on a document, he'll go back to his party and "look again". He's still "committed" to the All-Wales Accord and has no intention of "steering that ship up onto the rocks". Hardly the words of a man with his hands on the rainbow rug, poised to pull.
And if he did pull, he might only fall flat on his arse. By that time, a Red-Green document would already have been drawn up. Much like the All-Wales Accord, it would be released to the public and, if the election results are anything to go by, it would excite more people than any Lib-Lab alternative. But much worse than that, it was the Lib Dems who were ridiculed for steering the rainbow ship up onto the rocks; they could really suffer from sinking the Red-Green ship too.
UPDATE: Something for the Lib Dems to sing and dance about at last: Britain's Got Talent winner, Pol Pot, is a former Lib Dem councillor.
Labels: Mike German, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 1:33 pm,
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Blamerbell en Paris
Sunday, June 17, 2007
What's happening then?
Don't expect me to tell you:)
As you may know, I've been away at the CNN European blog awards, which I'm pleased to say I won.
I went to Paris for the ceremony on Friday and it was actually rather a big deal. There was a huge media fair being held at the Porte de Versailles which, for future reference, is not really taxiable from the centre of town (unless you are willing to remortgage your maison).
The awards ceremony itself was quite a grand affair - there were a number of elaborate speeches before I was eventually called. I was given the prize by a chap called Emmanuel Chain, who is sort of the French Jeremy Paxman (for looks, think David Ginola rather than Tony Adams). I'm sure he said some nice things about my blog but it was all in French and all I can remember from GCSE is how to ask for an ice cream or report that my cello has been stolen.
And that is very much how the rest of the evening went - much French being spoken and much failing to understand on my part. Later, I went to a student party with the guy who runs the second placed blog, drank a couple of beers and asked for lots of ice creams.
Incidentally, if you want a taxi in Paris, don't automatically assume that a taxi sitting in a taxi rank with its light on and door open is necessarily willing to take you anywhere. I got in, sat down, said 'Gare du Nord', even said please (though now I wish I hadn't bothered) before I was unceremoniously ejected by an all too rude Frenchman.
So, it's good to be back in the UK. And it's great to see that Welsh politics has been as unpredictable as ever in my absence.
Hopefully, I'll catch up with all that later, though I hear Plaid are now leaning towards a deal with Labour, if only because Labour will find it almost impossible to deliver it.
Labels: Blamerbell, CNN blog awards, National Assembly for Wales, Rainbow Coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:54 pm,
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Plaid won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
There's been a lot of chatter over the past few hours about Plaid re-opening talks with Labour over a formal coalition.
Some of the usual suspects, bless them, have been getting quite upset. Stomp, stomp, stomp. We want our bloody rainbow.
Well, as I said yesterday, they are still odds on to get it. So kem down.
Have any of Plaid's rainbowista AMs publicly changed their position? No.
Has Plaid's leader given any indication that he's keen on a deal with Labour? No.
Has Gordon Brown suggested that he'd whip up Labour MPs to get a referendum on further powers through parliament? No (in fact Tomos Livingstone reports Labour MPs saying quite the opposite).
Were Tory and Plaid AMs drinking together in the Eli Jenkins last night? Probably.
Do we know who the identity of the 'senior source' that broke the red-green story? No.
Worth bearing in mind, I think, that I've seen people quoted as 'senior sources' before who were fourth placed constituency candidates in the assembly election. Can this chap persuade the majority of the party's AMs, party members and national council to change their mind? You decide.
But taking all that's been said in the past few weeks, it seems Plaid's assembly group still overwhelmingly back a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. They wouldn't have dismissed the red-green option so quickly on the previous occasion if that wasn't the case.
And it is they, ultimately, who will make the decision which will go forward to the national council in July. The national exeucitve, which meets on Saturday in Aberystwyth, is merely an advisory body. So, whatever happens, there will not be another Lib Dem moment, whereby a bunch of obscure councillors and receding hairlines overrule directly elected politicians.
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Plenary Live:
Alun Cairns has had a hair cut - makes him look even more like the work experience kid.
Eleanor Burnham just attempted to break the world speed-speaking record while asking her tabled question to the new Sustainability Minister, Jane Davidson.
According to Ms Davidson's website, incidentally, she's still the Education Minister.
Of course, to the majority of the population, all this means nothing at all, so I may stop now. They're talking about footpaths again...
Has Brynle Williams been sunbathing - or has he just done up his shirt collar too tight? He's certainly very red. Perhaps he's getting worked up about those badgers he's prattling on about.
Now, the moment we've all been waiting for: Questions to the Minister for Education, Culture, the Welsh Language, Laid-back Self-confidence, Going Grey Gracefully and Everything Else on the Universe just to make Jane Davidson feel bad.
Alun Davies quotes from Alun Cairns' blog. The little man favours academic selection. Of course, I expect Alun Cairns to retaliate with a quotation from Alun Davies' blog: 'Happy Christmas'.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, red-green coalition
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:22 pm,
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How long has Rhodders got?
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
That's the question I was asked today. And for once I didn't chafe my precious parts sitting on that well-worn pundit's fence. Instead, I leapt tentatively into the 'He'll be gone by autumn' camp.
Predictions are usually wrong in Welsh politics and there are plenty of twists and turns yet. But you'd have to say that, on current form, the rainbowistas look set to make a move, perhaps before the summer's out.
Quite simply, Ieuan Wyn Jones wants it too much. Tactically, it might be better to keep the Labour option open as long as possible to at least make it look like the rainbow was forced to make a move. But at the moment, IWJ's poker face is about as convincing as a Didier Drogba dive.
If it were to go ahead, though, I think one of the biggest changes might be in 'foreign affairs'. I know that isn't exactly part of the assembly's remit, but with a nationalist first minister in Scotland and a sympathetic ear in Northern Ireland, the rainbow would look to put pressure on Westminster as part of an alliance with the other devolved institutions.
This could be anything from stating a view on foreign policy (remember Rhodri's refusal to have a view on Iraq?) to demanding greater representation in negotiations with the European Union. I had a chat with Plaid's Adam Price MP about this yesterday before a programme on Radio Scotland, and he suggested the Celtic clout of the devolved governments would look to work as a pincer movement on Westminster to secure, for example, a better financial settlement.
Alex Salmond has already made calls for the resumption of Joint Ministerial Committees between the devolved institutions, and also 'Council of the Isles' style meetings (including the Republic of Ireland), with the UK government.
Of course, these may go ahead whether Rhodri stays or not, but I imagine a Plaid-led government would be anxious to sign-up and secure added legitimacy for the assembly as a national institution in its own right.
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The latest offering from the sparingly-used poll tool:
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UPDATE: Impeccable timing as ever.
Vaughan Roderick reports that Plaid are set to agree to further talks on a deal with Labour in their meeting this evening.
Labour have apparently offered at least three cabinet positions and firm promises on a referendum on further powers, a commission to review the Barnett formula and a Welsh Language act.
To be updated...
Sources in Plaid say it'll have to be an offer they can't refuse. Could Brown sanction the passage of a referendum through the Houses of Parliament? After all, he can't be keen on the idea of starting his premiership with Labour in opposition in both Scotland and Wales.
Either that, or Ieuan Wyn Jones has finally got control of his poker face. This might just be the smokescreen that enables him to say Labour can't deliver.
Labels: Joint Ministerial Committees, Labour, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 4:00 pm,
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Wee bits and bobs
Monday, June 11, 2007
I'll be taking part in a live debate over on BBC Radio Scotland this evening (10pm) about the future of devolution.
The new Scottish government, led by Alex Salmond, isn't too pleased that Tony Blair apparently struck a deal which could lead to the Lockerbie bomber being sent back to Libya to complete his prison sentence without informing it.
Meanwhile, the Secretary of State and the First Minister in Wales are on such good terms that Rhodri Morgan is backing Harriet Harman for the Deputy Leadership of the Labour party.
You can listen to the programme, Scotland at Ten, online this evening.
I am also booked to pop up again on tomorrow's AM/PM on BBC 2 Wales - better than Big Brother every time:)
In other news, Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones has torn up Labour's olive branch, ground it into sawdust, shoved it in his mouth and sprayed it all over Rhodri Morgan's surprised face shouting "Boo hoo to you, Sir!"
He still fancies forming his own government, you see.
Labels: Colin MacKay, Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Radio Scotland, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan, Scotland at ten
posted by Blamerbell @ 7:25 pm,
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Reasons to disagree on first day back at the office
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Rhodri Morgan today unveils
So committed is he to this cause, he failed to take part in a televised debate with the leaders of the other parties to explain to the people of Wales what this might actually mean in practice.
If the intention was damage limitation, the effect was quite the opposite; the other leaders spent almost the entire programme reminding viewers of the first minister's absence.
Never mind, Carwyn Jones was deputising and, as ever, sounded like someone from a self-help tape. He managed to tell those agitated nurses to bugger off in really the most relaxing way.
Anyway, the point that the would-be rainbow coup leaders made repeatedly was that the assembly is today being presented with a legislative programme, and yet there was no consultation with the other parties in advance. Labour seem to be saying take it or leave it.
Mike German got as close as possible to facial expression number 3: visibly annoyed. And the others didn't seem too happy either.
I gather the front page (or thereabouts) of the Western Mail will report Ieuan Wyn Jones saying the government has six weeks to deliver or face being kicked out by him and his triple alliance lieutenants. He denied that on television. Apparently he said there would be a 50:50 chance of a
As I said right back when the Lib Dems finally got their knickers out of Alex Carlile's twist, people will expect the rainbow to move quickly if it is to move at all.
The six weeks figure is a calculated move from Plaid to give Rhodri the spooks. It's playing politics again. But this game is getting a little tiring, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any disagreement today.
Labour are expected to put forward the same bunch of policies they previewed so enthusiastically during the election campaign. For the other parties, there's not much to get worked up about except, perhaps, the issue of the Welsh language.
If Labour go with the legislation they proposed back in April, they will set in motion the process of appointing a Dyfarnydd, falling well short of the new Welsh Language Act demanded by the opposition parties and a number of lobbying organisations. Carwyn Jones tried to prepare the ground for this last week. But it went down as well as a vomit smoothie.
This could well be the first sticking point for the new consensus-building regime. And if there's no agreement - what then? Do the Tories topple Labour because there aren't enough rights for the Welsh language? Or can a government only be brought down over something a bit more life and death?
All the signs are that there'll be a lot of huffing and puffing in the next few weeks, but not much blowing the house down.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, legislation, Mike German, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:34 am,
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Time to talk
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
It's 'don't turn up' Tuesday.
First of all, Plaid AMs Leanne Wood and Bethan Jenkins will give the Queen's official opening of the assembly a miss, then Rhodri Morgan will be the only party leader absent from a Week in Week Out special examining what the hell is going on at the top of Welsh government.
Fresh from gaining Wales' first super-ministry, Carwyn Jones will deputise. A sign of things to come, perhaps? Nevertheless, the first minister's absence does rather undermine the point of the programme.
We want answers, and only Rhodri Morgan truly knows what
What are the bottom line issues? And even then, can the government do anything to save its back?
The reality is, surely, that the opposition parties can keep upping the anti. If Labour put all their eggs in one basket, the rainbow partners can just crack them in their face. Labour may offer concessions over hospital reconfiguration, for example, but if they don't go as far as Ieuan Wyn Jones and his buddies demand, then they could have the rug pulled from beneath them at any time.
Personally, I can't see consensus politics going beyond agreeing that this afternoon's champagne is indeed a very good vintage.
Which brings me back to those dungaree-clad social workers, as some of you have so crassly described them in the comments to what was an otherwise quite interesting debate.
And that is surely the point. We had a debate.
Whether or not you agree with Bethan and Leanne, it is vital that we have the argument about the role of the monarchy from time to time. Unfortunately, there is almost no space for the type of views held by these two politicians in the mainstream media, despite the fact that they are shared by a sizable proportion of the population.
Do we elect our leaders or does the Queen appoint them? Are we subjects or citizens? Who decides whether or not we go to war? And is the Queen really the best person to open our assembly?
These are all questions of fundamental importance. They deserve to be discussed. Regrettably, opportunities to do so are all too rare.
Labels: abolition of monarchy, Bethan Jenkins, Leanne Wood, National Assembly for Wales, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:43 am,
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M4 Ministers
Saturday, June 02, 2007
Much has been made of Rhodri's so-called 'Glamorganshire Cabinet' (see below for Mumph's take on it). It is certainly odd that the only people deemed to have any ministerial talent hark from a narrow corridor in South Wales.
This plays right into the hands of Ieuan Wyn Jones, of course. He still wants to form an all-Wales government, albeit one with barely a constituency seat to show for itself in and around the capital.
But as far as valleys dwellers are concerned, the man is from a different planet. He may bang on about supporting the Newport Gwent Dragons, but most people in these parts put on 888 even when he's speaking in English.
And so, if and when a rainbow coalition makes its move, they'll have the very opposite problem. How can a bunch of North and West Walian nationalists propped up by dickie bow wearing Tories possibly earn the trust of South Wales' industrial heartlands?
Answer: the gang of four won't just have to get behind a rainbow coalition if that's what their party decides - they'll have to be its chief cheerleaders. This will be (a) hilarious and (b) very unlikely. I can't see Helen Mary Jones polishing off her pom poms to extoll the virtues of Toryism just yet.
At the moment, the assembly seems to be split along regional lines, with Labour ruling from the centre and the fringes poised to give the capital a kick up the backside. I think it's true to say, therefore, that if there were such a thing as a a genuine all-Wales agreement it would have to involve a Plaid-Labour pact rather than a rainbow coalition deal. Glamorganshire sausages with some country spice, if you like.
The problem is Rhodri's M4 cabinet doesn't appear to feature in Ieuan's roadmap to power. For the time being, at least, all roads lead to Anglesey.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan, Welsh Labour cabinet
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:47 am,
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Wish you were there?
Monday, May 28, 2007
Whoppee! It's the Whistun break and our hard-working politicians are enjoying a week in the sun. All except those who've decided to holiday in Wales, that is.So what's the state of the nation? Well, it's a complete and utter shambles. Good job, bring on the Pina Coladas.
On Friday, Rhodri Morgan became first minister of a minority Labour administration. On Saturday, the Lib Dems voted to pursue a rainbow coalition with Plaid and the Tories which would necessitate his removal.
The ball is now very much in Plaid's court. But rather than smash it down the line for a winner, Ieuan Wyn Jones is hanging on to it for a game of keepie uppies.
The noises coming from the Plaid camp are that they now have time to discuss the rainbow option in earnest. I was on a panel with Rhodri Glyn Thomas the other day and he suggested they wouldn't necessarily need to make a move before the summer. Speaking on yesterday's Maniffesto programme, Ieuan Wyn Jones implied that the party's national council wouldn't even be discussing the proposals until July.
In the meantime, Rhodri Morgan will announce a cabinet and get on with the job. But he is a first minister on probation in charge of a government in paralysis. Plaid should beware, however. The longer he's in charge, the more difficult it will be to remove him.
Mathematically and constitutionally, Plaid can take as long as they like. But realistically, they will need a bloody good reason. We're not used to putsch politics here in Wales. Coups are for chickens, not for Cardiff Bay.
It may be possible for the opposition parties to engineer disquiet over hospital reconfiguration or the budget which would prompt a vote of no confidence. But they would be taking power in very different circumstances then compared to now.
At the moment, the election still isn't too far gone. A cabinet hasn't been named and the machinery of administration is still in cold storage. Moreover, the rainbow is still widely seen as an alternative to Labour rather than a calculated plot to oust the government. People may not look upon the idea so favourably in a few months time.
But while the Lib Dems and the Tories have now played their hand, let's not forget that Plaid have emerged strengthened. For the next couple of weeks, at least, they have the threat of the rainbow to keep Labour on its toes. A red-green deal is not out of the question.
And yet there's still that glint in Ieuan Wyn Jones' eyes which suggests he's keen to govern. If that's so, there's nothing to stop him moving fast. Otherwise, there's every danger the assembly will be a national joke by the time he finally makes his move. This comedy of errors has gone on quite long enough.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Glyn Thomas, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:32 am,
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Who are you?
Saturday, May 26, 2007
It's Saturday. Everyone's resigned to the fact that we've got a new first minister. And yet the Liberal Democrats are still plugging away.
After ruining both the prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition and a Rainbow Coalition they are now focusing on tearing themsevlves apart. Today, they meet for a special conference. And yet the only remaining chance of a rainbow is in one of Peter Black's increasingly repulsive ties. How many Lib Dem activists, I wonder, would like to tighten that particular knot?
But amidst the recriminations, don't you think we have a right to know who voted against the triple alliance on Wednesday night? I'm told there were 18 people eligible to vote in the national executive ballot which sent the rainbow coalition crashing back to earth. But Lib Dem members never got a chance to have their say. Instead, they were shafted by a bunch of councillors and party stooges.
Here's a list of the Lib Dem national executive:
Alastair Baker
Treasurer, Welsh Liberal Democrats National Executive Committee
David Bourne
National Executive Committee
Eleanor Burnham
National Executive Committee Policy Committe
Nick Burree
National Executive Committee
Jon Burree
Secretary, Welsh Liberal Democrats National Executive Committee
Michael German
Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the National Assembly National Executive Committee
Alison Goldsworthy
Vice Chair, National Executive Committee
Dominic Hannigan
Campaigns & Candidates Committee MIDR Cymru National Executive
Rob Humphreys
President, Welsh Liberal Democrats Chair, National Executive Committee
Jim Kelleher
National Executive Committee
John Last
Chair, Campaigns & Candidates Committee National Executive Committee
Ben Lloyd
National Executive Committee
Elgan Morgan
Policy Committee
Chair, Conference Committee
National Executive Committee
Aled Morris Jones
National Executive Committee
Lembit Öpik
Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
Federal Vice President
National Executive Committee
Veronica Watkins
National Executive Committee
Kirsty Williams
National Executive Committee
AC
Michael Woods
Chair, Policy Committee
Campaigns & Candidates Committee
National Executive Committee
One of these people cast the vote which changed the course of Welsh politics for years to come. Shouldn't we be told who it was and why?
By the way, as I now feel compelled to share every aspect of my life with you, I should tell you I met Labour's David Taylor for the first time last night. He's adamant he wasn't behind that short-lived Arsembly effort. And in the flesh, he's quite an amiable chap. He even lets Leighton Andrews write his own blog sometimes...
UPDATE: The Lib Dem special conference has voted 125-77 in favour of reviving the coalition project they spectacularly shelved on Wednesday night. But Wales has now got a first minister and there doesn't seem to be much appetite from Plaid Cymru to resurrect the rainbow in the short term.
Today was billed as Super Saturday. But the triple alliance now has about as much momentum as Rhodri's static caravan in Mwnt.
It's time, then, to put the feet up, watch the footy and take a break. I don't think there'll be a revolution this weekend after all.
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:05 am,
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Shafted!
Thursday, May 24, 2007
It's no secret that the Lib Dems' six AMs don't get on. Now, they've got no friends in any of the other parties either. A week after resoundingly turning their back on Labour, they have dealt a similar blow to the prospect of a Plaid-led rainbow coalition.
This is, quite simply, bizarre. The very same personnel that voted last week to end negotiations with Labour have now chosen opposition over government. This is despite the fact that none of the three groups which made up last night's meeting actually voted against a rainbow coalition.
The negotiating team and the AMs both voted in favour, but the national executive was a dead heat. Without a majority in all three groups, the Lib Dems could not authorise a special conference. In the end, the deal which promised to revolutionise the way politics is conducted in Wales has been scuppered by just one unelected officer on an internal Lib Dem council.
The consequences are enormous. Not only is Mike German's leadership now under severe threat but people will be left wondering, a la Simon Jenkins, what on earth are the Lib Dems for?
They've turned their noses up at the offer of PR in local government, which is the one big thing that set them apart. Now, it seems, they'd rather snipe from the sidelines than implement their own policies. No doubt we'll be hearing very soon what was lined up in the coalition document. It is certain, however, to make their election promise of maximum votes for maximum Lib Dem policies completely redundant.
On hospital reconfiguration, reducing class sizes and making the green switch they've turned down the chance to have it their own way.
Peter Black tells me that "in the end the party did not have the stomach for coalition." The rationale is that they can reinvent in opposition. But it is going to be stupendously difficult.
Because whatever government eventually takes power in Cardiff Bay, the Lib Dems will be coalition partners by proxy. By bailing out, they've left few alternatives and very little time. The government's mistakes will be the Lib Dems' mistakes because they engineered the circumstances which put them there.
They are, quite frankly, knee deep in it. To be an effective opposition, you must be free to criticise the government. But every time the Lib Dems open their mouths, the other parties will be quick to remind them that they had their chance and blew it.
Yesterday afternoon, the rainbow coalition document came back from its civil service going over - as if a sign was needed about how advanced the process had become.
The Plaid-Labour document, by contrast, never made it out of Helen Mary Jones' handbag. By committing to the rainbow route, Ieuan was obviously keen to shed his wobble. But had he adopted the more cautious approach of the 'feisty foursome' the next few hours might not be such a scramble.
It seems pretty clear that a Plaid-Tory deal is a non-starter. I put this to Nick Bourne on Tuesday and he laughed it off.
So, Plaid and Labour are left with barely 48 hours to cobble together a programme of government for Wales. And thanks to Labour, there's a 28-page document sitting there ready to go. Who knows, the politicians might finally find something to agree about.
Labels: Conservatives, National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007, Welsh Labour, Welsh Liberal Democrats
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:51 am,
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Will Black spoil the rainbow? UPDATE: Yes!
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Two key meetings tonight, both in Llandrindod. The Conservatives' management board are meeting in the
This is much more difficult to call. Even though they voted by 9-3 to suspend talks with Labour last week, a number of Lib Dem legends and Peter Black are thought to be against teaming up with Plaid and the Tories. Activists were out in numbers - thought to be at least 12 - to make their opposition known.
"What do we want?"
"Constitutional reform and the introduction of a single transferable voting system in local government," they shouted.
"When do we want it?"
"After a majority vote in the national executive, a special conference in an unspecified location and even then not really," they cried.
To be updated.
UPDATE: The Lib Dems have voted to halt all talks. That means the end of the rainbow.
Lib Dem leader (for the moment) Mike German said: "We had a very throughtful discussion... it was clear that there was a deep division on this matter and the party decided that it would not be possible to move forward and to recommend this to a special party conference.
"There will be no vote from our party to support a first minister next week."
Whatever happened to more votes, more seats, more power, more influence?
They'd won the PR argument (a huge coup for such a small party). No doubt there were other Lib Dem policies in there too. Perhaps it came down to the toothbrushes...
Labels: Liberal Democrats, Peter Black, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 10:02 pm,
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The deal Plaid left behind
More details are emerging of the deal Plaid turned down to concentrate solely on forming a rainbow coalition. It is thought Labour were offering a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, a review of the Barnett formula AND a new Welsh Language Act (in some form).
I also understand that at the time Plaid voted to sever talks with Labour, Rhodri Morgan's team were perusing the very same document on health reconfiguration which had been submitted to the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even though Labour had earlier rejected the idea of a moratorium on the reconfiguration programme, the four AMs who voted against suspending negotiations clearly thought there was still hope of reaching an agreement on this and other key issues.
Nevertheless, the other Plaid AMs decided that talks were not progressing at a sufficient pace. And yet, had this offer been on the table on May 4th, surely they would have snapped it up?
UPDATE: It seems others within Plaid are contesting this version of events. They say that a Welsh Language Act wasn't on the table, only the watered-down promise of a 'Dyfarnydd' which appeared in Labour's manifesto. They also say that Rhodri Morgan was prepared to offer an assembly vote on a referendum, but stopped short of guaranteeing his members would support it.
Labels: deal, Labour, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, Welsh Assembly Election 2007
posted by Blamerbell @ 9:49 am,
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The return of two party politics
Problem is, they're both Plaid Cymru.
The decision, yesterday, of the party's assembly group to stop negotiating with Labour and take Wales within touching distance of a rainbow coalition government was far from unanimous. After hours of debate, four women remained unconvinced. They will now make the case for rejecting a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems in the run up to Saturday's key vote of the National Council, which must authorise any potential alliance.
Helen Mary Jones, Leanne Wood, Bethan Jenkins and Nerys Evans form a feisty female quartet, intent on spilling what they consider to be a rapidly diminishing pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There are two major sticking points.
Firstly, they say: "We fought this election on a platform to deliver a proper Parliament for our nation. A deal with the Conservatives would undermine the chance of delivering that goal."
There's no reference here to Tories actively blocking plans for further devolution. I don't believe they are. Rather, the obstacle to delivering a proper Parliament is the Labour party. They are the ones with the ability to block such a move in Wales and in Westminster. Only a deal with Labour could have made sure that a vote on further powers would make it past the first hurdle.
And yet, we've been led to believe that Labour fell short of offering such a guarantee. Why, then, do the dissenting foursome consider this just cause to vote against a rainbow coalition? Did they wonder if Rhodri was ever pushed far enough? And did they believe there was still time to push him further?
Secondly, they say: "There is a clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives. That is why we believe an arrangement between us would be unsustainable in the long-run and not deliver the stable government for which we all strive."
It can't be the language issue. It can't be the devolution issue. It can't even be PR in local government. The Tories are already much closer to Plaid than Labour in all these areas. It must, therefore, come down to ideology - tantamount to saying Plaid and the Tories could never work together.
And that's perfectly understandable. After all, it's what almost everyone thought just six months ago. But that wasn't the message of the election campaign. Plaid won 15 seats by saying 'Kick Labour into touch and we'll rustle up something better'.
So which of the much-promoted 7 4 07 is causing such an almighty 'clash of values and principles between Plaid and the Conservatives'?
I'd be surprised if the Tories would veto any of them (except free laptops for journalists - that was ridiculous). Because this isn't an argument about policies - at least the ones put forward in the manifesto. It is, rather, an argument about the social fabric of the people in the constituencies these dissenting AMs represent. The people who vote for Leanne Wood don't teeter pensively above the Conservative box before casting their vote in favour of socialism. If they have to think twice, they'll think about what Labour's done for them recently.
Both the rainbowistas and the rebels want to see Plaid gain a foothold in the valleys to truly challenge Labour as the party of Wales. The former want to do it from government with the help of the Tories. The latter believe Plaid could deliver a winning lottery ticket to every door and still be tarnished by such an association.
So, those four brave women will now attempt in earnest to convince the National Council. They are, in effect, campaigning for a minority Labour government. And if the vote goes their way, Labour would be in the driving seat again. Can Welsh politics really get any weirder?
Labels: National Assembly for Wales, Plaid Cymru, politics, Rainbow Coalition, rebels
posted by Blamerbell @ 12:46 am,
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Happy Birthday Ieuan
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
"It's just what I've always wanted. Thanks Dafydd."
"No problem," said Mr Wigley. "It's a lovely Welsh frame, though that photo of me is quite old now. I'll even sign it if you want, Ieuan."
"That won't be necessary, Dafydd.
"And what's this Helen - a scarf?"
Today, Ieuan Wyn Jones celebrates his birthday. It looks set to be one he'll never forget.
At 3pm, Plaid have their group meeting. They'll be discussing the document that looks set to make him First Minister.
This morning, I had a chat with Nick Bourne - Deputy First Minister elect. He was in good spirits. Mike German will have to settle for Assistant Deputy First Minister or Deputy Deputy First Minister. Whichever makes him sound less desperate:)
But he will, at least, have something to sell to his members at the Lib Dems' special conference on Saturday. While Peter Black remains "fundamentally opposed" to any kind of coalition, Mike German will be on the verge of delivering the closest thing the party has to a raison d'etre - PR in local government. They may have to settle for local referendums on the issue rather than seeing it rolled out with immediate effect, but at least it's something to shout about.
Labour AMs were in scarce supply today. Their world has been turned upside down. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems (all six of them) were still frantically negotiating and the Tories were practising their swagger.
Plaid are now in a huddle, but they are unlikely to spring any birthday surprises on Ieuan Wyn Jones. Rhodri, meanwhile, is having his cake and eating it.
UPDATE: Face to face talks between Plaid Cymru and Labour. It would have to be an absolutely incredible deal. Even then it's doubtful whether Labour's assembly members would sanction it. After all, when Rhodri is gone, they'll have to live with the consequences.
UPDATE: BBC are reporting that the triple alliance document has been sent to civil servants to take a look at. Are the Plaid-Labour talks an elaborate bluff? If Plaid go ahead with a rainbow coalition, they'll want to make it look like the last resort. That seems to be what they're engineering at the moment.
UPDATE: First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones. You'd better start getting used to the sound of that. Plaid have suspended talks with Labour.
Labels: Ieuan Wyn Jones, National Assembly for Wales, Nick Bourne, Plaid Cymru, Rainbow Coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:45 pm,
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