It's not over till it's over

The Western Mail is today reporting that the 'Brown' coalition is more or less a done deal. Just a few days ago, all their correspondents were still predicting a rainbow coalition.

They've also called a Lab-Lib deal and a previous rainbow pact as a formality before now.

If there's one thing this circus of tribalism and talks has taught us, it's that there's no telling what will happen next.

Plaid have a group meeting tomorrow, and the only thing that's certain is that it will go on for bloody ages. I can think of at least five AMs who will dig in for a fight. Don't expect the Rainbowistas to simply bend over and accept their fate.

UPDATE: BBC Wales' Westminster Correspondent David Cornock has given up asking his bosses for a blog and pushed ahead with his own. It's helpfully titled notabbcblog.blogspot.com

Labels: , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 12:00 pm,

37 Comments:

At 12:50 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blamer, your five.

Are you thinking:

Gareth Jones
Elin Jones
Alun Ffred Jones
Janet Ryder
and... Ieuan?? or is there someone else.

I guess Ashgar and that new chap could be floaters who will probably go whichever way IWJ tells them.

 
At 1:30 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's the detals of any coalition that matter. I do not want Rhodri as FM. Any coalition with him will last just two years.

What is going to happen to all the Welsh political problems in the meantime? Will Labour get *more* support to close our hospitals? We have almost forgotten the terrible legacy of the last Labour administration.

The only beneficiaries of a Lab/Plaid pact would be Labour. Those in Plaid who can't see further than their noses and vote for Red/Green will be signing the death sentence for any Plaid adminstration of the future.

There will not be another chance on this one. They will make history for letting a wonderful opportunity slip through because they had chips on their shoulders. Let's make sure we choose candidates of quality next time.

 
At 1:53 pm, Blogger Glyn Davies said...

Its looking a bit bleak for we 'rainbowistas' today - but the clouds may pass tomorrow. I would have thought that Dai Lloyd was one of us as well. Then it comes down to whether Ieuan has it in him to show a bit of leadership.

 
At 2:03 pm, Blogger Guto said...

Anon 12:50 - I think you'd get a 60% score for your guess

 
At 2:03 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is the problem of "closet" Labour in Plaid, those who stood to get the temporary disaffected Labour votes. It does seem very unfair that the genuine Plaid voters get penalised because of the "middle class" element who are not suffering from the effects of Labour mismanagement are content to join with them.
They will ensure our hospitals are closed, social care in the community will result in a lot more of vulnerable suffering and schools remain underfunded. What a deal! And for what?

 
At 2:20 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ICM telephone Poll today backs Rainbow 41%.
Red/Green 28%.

Plaid will ignore this at their peril. People want to get away from a Labour administration in Wales.

 
At 2:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"ICM telephone Poll today backs Rainbow 41%.
Red/Green 28%.

Plaid will ignore this at their peril. People want to get away from a Labour administration in Wales."

That's statistically untrue. More people in that poll said they wanted a Labour-led admninistration than a non-Labour government. This has been conveniently overlooked by those who desperately want a Plaid/Tory/LibDem deal.

 
At 2:45 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"That's statistically untrue. More people in that poll said they wanted a Labour-led admninistration than a non-Labour government. This has been conveniently overlooked by those who desperately want a Plaid/Tory/LibDem deal. "

I don't know which Poll you're referring to. 34% said they would prefer Rhodri as *coalition* leader so that's the best labour come out in the Poll.

Lab/Lib Dems had 21% backing and 10% don't know.

57% said they preferred a coalition administration, and again 34% would like RM to lead it.

Still, 41% WANT A RAINBOW.

 
At 2:45 pm, Anonymous rhymneyrocks said...

"This has been conveniently overlooked by those who desperately want a Plaid/Tory/LibDem deal."

The BBC and the Western Mail for two.

 
At 3:02 pm, Anonymous really off colour said...

34% would like RM to lead it.

that means 66% didnt want him to lead
Statistics eh
Wales wants a new way not what we have had before
The best from each would be good, but I guess thats not on
Selling to Plaid what about selling the deal to labour ,I guess Rhodri and his cabinet have a job there

 
At 3:10 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

really off colour said...
"34% would like RM to lead it."

That was a mistake. Of the two leaders 48% would like Rhodri to lead and 34% preferred Ieuan. 18% undecided.

Does not mean 48% want a Labour adminstration!

57% said they preferred a coalition government.

 
At 3:21 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has everyone forgotten that if Plaid leads the rainbow IWJ will be the new First Minister? Is it not better to lead from the front than take on the roll of a yes man to RM and Labour?

If they sign up with Labour, Plaid will never see power as they will be seen as followers not leaders and lose all their support in the country. We need leaders in Wales not another dose of RM and the incompetent Labour lot!

 
At 3:25 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's all over. Plaid haven't got the balls to lead a government. If they jump into bed with Labour it will be electoral suicide.

 
At 3:27 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"Has everyone forgotten that if Plaid leads the rainbow IWJ will be the new First Minister? Is it not better to lead from the front than take on the roll of a yes man to RM and Labour?
If they sign up with Labour, Plaid will never see power as they will be seen as followers not leaders and lose all their support in the country. We need leaders in Wales not another dose of RM and the incompetent Labour lot! "

That is exactly why a Red/Green would be disastrous for Plaid.

We cannot sell the future of Wales down the drain to appease a few lefties in Plaid who are worried about keeping their seats. IWJ need to take the lead and everyone else will follow.

Wales deserves better, a better future, a coalition of parties with great talent leading it.

Plaid said vote Plaid "to make a difference"

Let's remind Ieuan of that now.

 
At 3:34 pm, Anonymous Joe Public said...

Blamer! you are right! Lets leave it in God's hands.

Just remember whatever happens (Red-Green,Yellow,Green,Blue, Yellow and Red) If they bollocks it up. Joe Public will punish at the next election!

REMEMBER!

 
At 3:53 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I don't know which Poll you're referring to. 34% said they would prefer Rhodri as coalition leader so that's the best labour come out in the Poll."

Firstly, that's wrong, it was 48%. Secondly, see the results of the survey below. 21% want Lab-Lib and 28% Lab-Plaid, which equals 49%, which is more than the 41% total for the non-Labour option. Therefore more people wanted a labour-led govt than a non-Labour one. Basic maths.

"Which one of the following combinations of parties would you most prefer to see working together?

Labour & Welsh Liberal Democrats 21%
Labour & Plaid Cymru 28%
Plaid Cymru, Welsh Conservatives & Welsh Liberal Democrats 41%
Other/Don't know 10%"

 
At 4:45 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, how does the Plaid group split?

N.Evans - L
G.Jones - R
J.Davies - L
M.Ashgar - R (weak)
L.Wood - L
C.Franks - R (weak)
B.Jenkins - L
D.Lloyd - R
H.M.Jones - L
R.G.Thomas - L
E.Jones - R
J.Ryder - R
A.F.Jones - R
D.E.Thomas - ?
I.W.Jones - R

That makes 6 Labourites, 6 Rainbowistas, two newbies weak on the rainbow, and I don't really know about Dafydd El. Is that what other people are thinking?

 
At 4:59 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It gives me no pleasure to say it, but I really think Anonymous 3.25 hit the nail bang on the head. How on earth did Plaid get themselves into the position of not having the leadership of Dafydd Wigley in the Assembly group when he is so desperately needed?

 
At 5:08 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you know that apparently, only 2 Labour MPs were firmly in support of the red/green coalition?

Do you really want to put your trust in such people to deliver a Parliament?

 
At 5:14 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IWJ RED/GREEN
RGT
AFJ
HMJ
LW
NE
BJ
JD

DET ?

DL Rainbow
CF
JR
EJ
MA
GJ

What happens if their National Council does not share their support for the red/green option?

 
At 5:22 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

/What happens if their National Council does not share their support for the red/green option? /


They should keep their promise to the electorate to Make a Difference.

 
At 5:26 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Therefore more people wanted a labour-led govt than a non-Labour one. Basic maths. "

Wrong.

More people backed Rhodri to be FM.

The two are not the same.

They did not ask that question.

 
At 6:27 pm, Blogger hafod said...

Is there just a hint of desperation in these pro-Rainbow messages... even reviving the old "get rid of Janet Ryder for Wigley" line?!

I'm afraid the Rainbow is a non-starter... Bourne will have a veto over any radical move IWJ wants to introduce. If he says No, IWJ will have to accept or collapse the coalition. He will be neutered by the Tories.

Red-Green is far from acceptable (in an ideal world, I'd want a Plaid govt) but does anyone think that the Tories would have done anything different to Labour on the NHS had they been in power?

Labour in Wales has made a mess of reconfiguration but thankfully has not gone down the PFI/PPP route as in England, which has seen trusts go into massive deficit and sack thousands of nurses.
Likewise with the city academies and semi-privatised schools that are popping up in England.
Or perhaps the non-socialist elements in Plaid would like these things to happen - perhaps they want the Rainbow to implement right-wing policies?

 
At 8:04 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"What is going to happen to all the Welsh political problems in the meantime? Will Labour get *more* support to close our hospitals? We have almost forgotten the terrible legacy of the last Labour administration.

The only beneficiaries of a Lab/Plaid pact would be Labour. Those in Plaid who can't see further than their noses and vote for Red/Green will be signing the death sentence for any Plaid adminstration of the future.

There will not be another chance on this one. They will make history for letting a wonderful opportunity slip through because they had chips on their shoulders. Let's make sure we choose candidates of quality next time."

I'm afraid that those who's mind is made up and set in stone do not help others to make up their minds. The truth is that there are strong reasons to accept and reject all options. There are also future imponderabls that is impossible to forcast with any certainty.

Please, let's try at least reason the arguments through

 
At 8:35 pm, Anonymous Iolo said...

It's the old Chinese curse: "Be careful what you wish for in case you get it" (or words to that effect).

The macho men in Plaid wanted to be 'in government now' as they say and they will, only it's likely to be the wrong one!

Whichever 'government' they choose will needlessly cost Plaid votes. A bit of nous and they could have done a Salmond in 2011. They were warned, but they don't listen to girls. No wonder men start so many
wars.

 
At 8:50 pm, Anonymous der said...

Iolo....can you get me some? It looks like it's pretty good shit....

 
At 9:06 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iolo,

Don't underestimate the effects of the British electoral cycle on welsh electoral results. Gordon Brown will win an election in 2008 or 2009 but will inevitably become increasingly unpopular. The biggest beneficiaries of this will be the tories (in the UK and unfortunately in Wales).

In 2011 Labour could potentially fall as low as 21 AMs - but the Tories will unfortunately ride the national wave and probably do better than Plaid becoming the second largest party.

Leading the nation is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Plaid I'm afraid.

National Leadership is important for Plaid not just for the additional policy influence but also because of the symbolic change from shouting at the back to leading from the front.

It's not macho it's just an understanding of the psychology that people treat you differently after you have shown that you can lead.

 
At 9:06 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

iolo said:
"Whichever 'government' they choose will needlessly cost Plaid votes. A bit of nous and they could have done a Salmond in 2011. They were warned, but they don't listen to girls. No wonder men start so many
wars. "

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Things are changing fast in politics now. By 2011 we are likely to have a different PM in Westminster, we can see already that there are going to be changes in the way the whole of Britain is going to be governed. So why should we sell out to being part of England at this stage? Brown has already said he wants to control from the centre (Westminster)
Votes are not like money. You csannot save them or expect them to be there when you need them. You have to deserve them. And to deserve them you have to show courage, honesty and determination to carry out what is good for the people you represent.

 
At 9:39 pm, Blogger Lenin Cymru said...

Can we just all agree that there are known unknowns and if we stick all the unknown unknowns together with the known unknowns, we will all know?

By the way, I think that some of these guesses about the Plaid Cymru Assembly group maths might be close. But imagine if someone added the option of staying in opposition? Don't you think that there would be a vast majority in favour in the Plaid group?

http://welshramblings.blogspot.com/

 
At 10:18 pm, Anonymous Tony said...

"Therefore more people wanted a labour-led govt than a non-Labour one. Basic maths. "

Wrong.

More people backed Rhodri to be FM.

The two are not the same.

They did not ask that question."

Yes they did, you turd sandwich. They asked the question 'Which one of the following combinations of parties would you most prefer to see working together?' as well as who do you want to be FM. Get your facts right.

 
At 11:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

gentleman tony said:

"Yes they did, you turd sandwich. They asked the question 'Which one of the following combinations of parties would you most prefer to see working together?' as well as who do you want to be FM. Get your facts right. "

Read that again. There are a few questions in what you quote. Maybe the result was not quite what you wanted but , hey, just twist it as bit to left and, presto, you get a positive backing for Labour.

Wrong (and I won't be as rude cos I'm a Lady)

So, the Poll was asking WHO they prefered as FM. 48% said Rhodri, but that does not mean that they support an all Labour administration.

 
At 12:01 am, Anonymous Iolo said...

There they go, coming over all messianic again. Let's look at some examples of succesful, long-term leaders for comparison:

"Leading the nation" - Benito Mussolini?

"Once in a generation" - Clive Sinclair?

"People treat you differently when you lead" - the Pied Piper of Hamelin?

"Courage, honesty, determination" - John Major?

This historic guff just hides a lack of sound analysis and realistic policies. I don't think it goes down well with pobl y cwm.

 
At 8:01 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The winners in all of this are the Tories. For them the Assembly is a sideshow. Their real aim is to win a UK election and to do that they need seats in Wales such as the Vale and Cardiff North. On a good day with a half decent candidate they could also do well in seats such as Bridgend where there is an anti Labour majority but it is split. A Labour Plaid coalition will allow them to have a field day as the inevitable difficult choices that government brings have to be made. The real losers in the long run which ever way it goes is Plaid who have been forced to make decisions because of the Lib Dems earlier decision not to go in with Labour.If it goes in with Labour it will alienate those voters who see it as an anti Labour alternative. If it leads a coalition with the Tories it will alienate many of its socialist supporters. Plaid would have been better off playing the long game and waiting until 2011. The Western Mail poll showed how dificult it will be to win a 'yes' vote in a referendum and many Labour anti devolutionists know this.

 
At 9:10 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The opposition for Plaid option is certainly one that might suit the party's future electoral ambitions, but only if it forced upon them and not chosen. For Plaid to choose opposition when there are realisitic governing options would be political suicide. They would effectively be neutered as an opposition party and lose all credibility-not just from one side or the other.

If they were forced into this position then that would be a different scenario but to talk of 'choosing principled opposition' is no position at all and frankly, would probably force more Plaid resignations than any other choice, including mine.

 
At 9:47 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Best analysis on the whole sorry saga here:

http://www.seneddwr.com/2007/06/week-that-will-define-them.html

 
At 11:40 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iolo said...
"Leading the nation" - Benito Mussolini?

"Once in a generation" - Clive Sinclair?

"People treat you differently when you lead" - the Pied Piper of Hamelin?

"Courage, honesty, determination" - John Major?

This historic guff just hides a lack of sound analysis and realistic policies. I don't think it goes down well with pobl y cwm. "

When you've shot all the birds in the valleys don't complain there is no song anymore.
The Welsh were famous for put downs and discouraging enterprize. We see such an example here in Iolo's comment.
yeuch.

 
At 5:06 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"So, the Poll was asking WHO they prefered as FM. 48% said Rhodri, but that does not mean that they support an all Labour administration."

Tony was right.

It asked both questions - they asked who people wanted to be FM and, in a seperate question, what govt combo people wanted. And Labour was involved in 49% of responses to this second question: 21% said Lab/Lib + 28% said Lab/Plaid, compared to 41% for a 'rainbow' coalition. He never claimed people supported an 'all Labour' administration.

The 48% wanting Rhodri as FM was a resoponse to a different question in the poll.

 

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