The End
Tuesday, June 26, 2007

I had hoped to bring you news of a potentially historic step forward for Welsh politics. But as usual, the politicians have contrived to delay proceedings.

Plaid's assembly group was due to meet today to make a final decision on whether to recommend a Rainbow or a Red-Green coalition to its National Council on July 7. However, they've decided to postpone that meeting until tomorrow because Labour's Welsh Executive meets this evening.

I understand that the momentum is still with the 'Brown' deal. In the short term it may seem less ambitious, but in the long term it would deliver more powers to Wales (if they can win a referendum) and bring Plaid closer to its long-term aim of independence.

Perversely, an election campaign spent convincing people that government mattered more to Plaid Cymru than distant objectives of autonomy looks to have put Plaid in a position to push for the latter while surrendering the opportunity to take overall control of the former. It seems also that Labour's veiled threat to make life difficult for a Rainbow government in Westminster has carried some weight.

But there's also the problem of the Liberal Democrats. At the outset, they could have had a deal with Plaid or Labour. But now, a significant chunk of AMs from both parties have serious reservations whether they can be trusted. After all, they will host a leadership election in the next few months and there's no telling whether that would preempt another flip flop.

So, I won't get closure in time for my last ever post. But as this chap knows only too well, there's never a good time to bow out.

I had written a long and tortuous adieu. But I've shelved that. Instead, take a look at the archives, if you wish, and judge for yourselves.

All I will say is that I've had great fun writing this blog and watching it grow. By the end, it was almost a part-time job (albeit one that paid even less than I got on the fruit counter at Tesco). Now that I have a full-time job, I'm afraid it's not going to be possible to continue.

It's a shame, because it's been a blast. It has never ceased to amuse me that I'm hated by some for being 'anti-Plaid' and loathed by others for being 'anti-Labour'. The Tories are too jolly to care and the Liberal Democrats are just happy to be talked about. In the context of Welsh politics, that's probably just about the right mix.

This is my 600th post - time to say goodbye and hang up the briefs.

Thanks for reading.

Hwyl fawr!

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:46 pm, ,


It's not over till it's over
Monday, June 25, 2007

The Western Mail is today reporting that the 'Brown' coalition is more or less a done deal. Just a few days ago, all their correspondents were still predicting a rainbow coalition.

They've also called a Lab-Lib deal and a previous rainbow pact as a formality before now.

If there's one thing this circus of tribalism and talks has taught us, it's that there's no telling what will happen next.

Plaid have a group meeting tomorrow, and the only thing that's certain is that it will go on for bloody ages. I can think of at least five AMs who will dig in for a fight. Don't expect the Rainbowistas to simply bend over and accept their fate.

UPDATE: BBC Wales' Westminster Correspondent David Cornock has given up asking his bosses for a blog and pushed ahead with his own. It's helpfully titled notabbcblog.blogspot.com

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:00 pm, ,


Farcembly?
Thursday, June 21, 2007

Today's twist: Labour MPs have told Rhodri to cut out his after dark soirees with Adam Price and IWJ and snuggle up to Mike German and the Lib Dems instead.

The Western Mail's Tomos Livingstone is now predicting a Rainbow coalition will rise from the ashes of the Red-Green talks, while Peter Black says everyone should get a move on.

Quite right. With more waffle than a Birdseye potato processing factory flying through the air in Cardiff Bay, little actual work has been going on. There are still no committees, for instance, so Thursdays are just used for filing fan mail and eating subsidised lunches.

Those in the Welsh political bubble think this is all just fine. These are exciting times. This is the new politics. And other such guff.

But outside, in the real world, it doesn't look quite so groundbreaking. People are simply wondering why they aren't getting on with it.

At the outset, every new twist seemed to offer endless intrigue and interest. But now, 'developments' are treading over old ground. Labour + the Lib Dems? We've been there before.

How many times, I wonder, can this cycle repeat itself before the whole thing descends into farce?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:12 pm, ,


Labour u-turn a sign of things to come
Wednesday, June 20, 2007

It is exactly two weeks since Rhodri Morgan wrote to Ieuan Wyn Jones and Mike German outlining the terms of a possible agreement to keep him in government.

Since then, Plaid have been negotiating a beefed up deal with Labour, the underlying document of which is just about finished, I understand.

Now, whaddyaknow - Business and Budget Minister Jane Hutt has announced an independent commission to review the Barnett Formula and consider tax-varying powers for the assembly.

A fortnight ago, Labour offered Plaid and the Lib Dems a "seen to be independent inquiry by the Assembly Finance Committee, possibly chaired by a Liberal Democrat." In other words, not an independent inquiry at all.

In just fourteen days, Labour have gone from stubborn refuseniks to willing co-conspirators. They are, [cough, splutter, vomit] experimenting with [shh, don't tell Tony]... compromise.

We've heard a lot about the 'new politics' which is a necessity now that power hangs in the balance between the parties in Wales. Well, here's an an example of it in operation.

And if Labour can announce this before the Red-Green agreement is even finalised, just imagine what could be coming our way if and when the deal is done.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 7:34 pm, ,


What Ieuan wants

No decision yesterday in Plaid's group meeting, so that means the future governance of Wales is likely to hinge on next Tuesday's weekly get-together.

Some people have already been speculating about the way Plaid AMs will vote, with almost everyone agreeing that Ieuan Wyn Jones is in the Rainbow camp.

Of course, he would just say he wants whatever's best for Wales, which is a bit like that ruthless lady from the Apprentice saying she wants what's best for Alan Sugar.

His own personal political inflections (and ambitions) must inevitably be playing a huge part in his thinking. It's just that he hasn't bothered sharing them with the rest of us. The BBC reports that he'll be meeting party members across Wales shortly to "explain the choice he believes Plaid should make." I'd wager he'll be doing a lot more tergiversating (love that word) than explaining, given that the details of the Red-Green pact have yet to be revealed.

IWJ is a very shrewd politician, even if there is something Yorkshire Terrieresque about his television appearances. And you can bet that whichever way the group votes next Tuesday (if indeed it is next Tuesday), it will subsequently appear to be the option Ieuan has 'preferred' for some time. If you like, he has hard-boiled the egg before it has had a chance to splatter all over his face.

But in the meantime, he can influence that decision. In the end, whether we advance towards a Rainbow or a Red-Green government comes down to the fancy of fifteen Plaid AMs. Ieuan need only convince seven of them and history is his (although a few of them need no convincing).

There is, however, one problem: the deal the negotiating team have been working on feverishly with Labour. What if that document ends up matching the All-Wales Accord on most issues, and trumping it on the key issues of the Welsh language and a referendum on further powers? After all, Adam Price is involved again, and we all know what he wants.

If that were the case, the Rainbow might become very difficult to defend and some of its advocates may be forced to recognise that perhaps one of its attractions was getting closer to the Tories all along.

What Ieuan wants may not necessarily be what he gets. Either way, though, he won't let on.

1414 UPDATE: In one minute I will be respecting a moment of contemplation and support for BBC journalist Alan Johnston (left) who has now been missing for 100 days. You can sign the petition and read more about the BBC's campaign for his release HERE.

On an altogether different note, everyone's favourite dog-handling, vest-wearing bald guy has written his idyosyncratic take on the world of Welsh blogging, which you can read HERE.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:54 pm, ,


The Gordon Brown meme

I've been tagged by Iain Dale and Matt Wardman to say two things about Gordon Brown.

Two words, of course, would be easy. Good off! Or bugger luck! Or something like that:)

Anyway, heregoes...

Two things Gordon Brown should be proud of:
His (Ed) Balls
His Cow's lick

Two things he should apologise for:
Supporting the England football team
Cardiff North (or was that Cherie's fault?)

Two things he should do immediately when he becomes PM:
Promote Peter Hain
Demote Peter Hain

Two things he should do while he is PM:
Favours for rich people
Make St David's Day a national binge drinking day holiday

I hereby tag fresh-faced newbie Seneddwr, Sanddef (because he loves everything to do with blogging), and anyone who'd like to share their wisdom with us in the comments because I am still struggling striving to be non-political and so I don't think I've really done this properly!

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:35 pm, ,


Plaid won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Wednesday, June 13, 2007

There's been a lot of chatter over the past few hours about Plaid re-opening talks with Labour over a formal coalition.

Some of the usual suspects, bless them, have been getting quite upset. Stomp, stomp, stomp. We want our bloody rainbow.

Well, as I said yesterday, they are still odds on to get it. So kem down.

Have any of Plaid's rainbowista AMs publicly changed their position? No.

Has Plaid's leader given any indication that he's keen on a deal with Labour? No.

Has Gordon Brown suggested that he'd whip up Labour MPs to get a referendum on further powers through parliament? No (in fact Tomos Livingstone reports Labour MPs saying quite the opposite).

Were Tory and Plaid AMs drinking together in the Eli Jenkins last night? Probably.

Do we know who the identity of the 'senior source' that broke the red-green story? No.

Worth bearing in mind, I think, that I've seen people quoted as 'senior sources' before who were fourth placed constituency candidates in the assembly election. Can this chap persuade the majority of the party's AMs, party members and national council to change their mind? You decide.

But taking all that's been said in the past few weeks, it seems Plaid's assembly group still overwhelmingly back a deal with the Tories and the Lib Dems. They wouldn't have dismissed the red-green option so quickly on the previous occasion if that wasn't the case.

And it is they, ultimately, who will make the decision which will go forward to the national council in July. The national exeucitve, which meets on Saturday in Aberystwyth, is merely an advisory body. So, whatever happens, there will not be another Lib Dem moment, whereby a bunch of obscure councillors and receding hairlines overrule directly elected politicians.
*****************************************
Plenary Live:

Alun Cairns has had a hair cut - makes him look even more like the work experience kid.

Eleanor Burnham just attempted to break the world speed-speaking record while asking her tabled question to the new Sustainability Minister, Jane Davidson.

According to Ms Davidson's website, incidentally, she's still the Education Minister.

Of course, to the majority of the population, all this means nothing at all, so I may stop now. They're talking about footpaths again...

Has Brynle Williams been sunbathing - or has he just done up his shirt collar too tight? He's certainly very red. Perhaps he's getting worked up about those badgers he's prattling on about.

Now, the moment we've all been waiting for: Questions to the Minister for Education, Culture, the Welsh Language, Laid-back Self-confidence, Going Grey Gracefully and Everything Else on the Universe just to make Jane Davidson feel bad.

Alun Davies quotes from Alun Cairns' blog. The little man favours academic selection. Of course, I expect Alun Cairns to retaliate with a quotation from Alun Davies' blog: 'Happy Christmas'.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 12:22 pm, ,


Red + Green = Brown
Saturday, June 09, 2007

Hardly the most inspiring colour, is it?

And yet, whether Wales is a car or an aeroplane, there seems to be mileage in the red-green Plaid-Labour idea again. Adam Price is all for it. And Edwina Hart used her first interview since the twentieth century to put her weight behind it too.

(Quite how any assembly member has managed to dodge the Welsh press for so long is a complete mystery. After all, there are only sixty of them. There should probably be a Dragon's Eye rota, just to even it out. At least that would give Helen Mary Jones some well-earned time off to go scarf shopping.)

Plaid and Labour in a grand coalition? Lefties everywhere are getting erect nipples just thinking about it.

But they haven't had to face Ieuan Wyn Jones. Does this man really fancy playing second fiddle to Rhodri's 'same-old' septet?

No.

He'd quite like to captain the ship himself. That's why the opposition are already behaving like a government in waiting in Cardiff Bay, with joint strategies and chummy tell-all telephone conversations between the leaders.

Adam Price is evidently doing everything he can to make a deal with Labour more palatable. After all, his father was a miner don't you know.

For all it matters, Ieuan Wyn Jones' father might as well have been Aneurin Bevan. He's still pushing for the rainbow.

Six weeks, then, to make or break a government. And at the end of it, most of the parties in Wales could be faced with seismic splits.

Labour is set for an internal battle whether it teams up with Plaid Cymru or not. And if Plaid go with Labour, Ieuan Wyn Jones' position would look very shaky. But then again, a deal with the Tories would cause a massive rupture with the left of the party. Meanwhile, Mike German and Nick Bourne really need to deliver the rainbow coalition to be sure of their jobs.

My prediction: I'll go out on a limb and say that three of the parties will have different leaders by the next assembly election. Within the next few months there'll be some sort of deal between the parties. And that means losers as well as winners.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 2:03 am, ,