The budget: who's lying?
Friday, December 15, 2006

Who do we believe? Did the budget go through because of an extra £13m or a paltry £300,000? The key distinction to be made is when the opposition parties stopped negotiating as an alliance. Plaid claim that anything agreed after that point is new money. So, here's the spin:

Plaid Cymru
- £9.6 million comes from Gordon Brown and all goes to education. In earlier talks Labour was only willing to allow £6 million of this for schools. This money came after negotiations with the Tories and Lib Dems, so it's new money. It's also a £300,000 increase on the £9.3 originally offered by the Chancellor.
- £1.7 million extra for special needs education. This offer was not on the table when the opposition parties negotiated together.
- £2 million for school heating, every year. This was initially billed as a one off payment for next year.
- "A coalition with the Tories is now virtually impossible."

Tories
- £9.3 million was always on the cards, so the only new money is £300,000.
- £2 million for heating was an earlier promise, all Plaid managed was to make it a recurring rather than one-off payment.
- The reserve £1.7 million was always there.
- "Plaid got the wobbles."

So is it a bumper investment or a reshuffling of the deck chairs? Well, it's neither.

But it is a pragmatic resolution for a nationalist party who sensed they were being damaged by the continuing talk of coalition with the Tories. Nick Bourne, for his part, probably played this one a bit too boldly. Coalition are best conducted in hushed tones with curtains drawn and pipes smoked. They're not the business of front page headlines and that, I sense, is what really irked Plaid Cymru.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 10:24 am, ,


Budget agreement but where's the beef?
Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Victory or capitulation? It's often a fine line in politics.

Anyone hoping to wake up tomorrow to a non-Labour government will be disappointed: the budget will go through this afternoon after Plaid struck a deal with the Labour administration.

Plaid will let the budget through in exchange for a promise of an extra £13.3 million for schools.

This, they claim, is "new money - meaning that no other budgets will be cut to provide the extra funds."

Hang on. New money? Where did that come from?

Rhodri Morgan said yesterday morning: "There's no more money beyond the £14.4 billion (initial budget) plus £9.3 million (that Gordon Brown made available)... It is a very very tight position to be in."

So who's right? Is it new money or not? These details - soon to be revealed I hope - will be key in determining whether Plaid and Labour emerge from this strengthened or looking desperate. After all, Labour want nothing more than to hang on to the last vestiges of power, and Plaid want nothing less than to be forced to work with the Tories.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 2:02 pm, ,


Assembly drama: No coalitions & no budgets
Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Today was the day that Plaid Cymru told the Tories where to shove it.

Plaid have emerged as the key bargaining power in the Welsh Assembly's budget negotiations, and their leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, well and truly drew a line under any coalition talk.

They'll now go it alone in discussions with Labour, though they still promise to vote against the budget tomorrow unless the government can find at least another £9 million.

It's not been a good day for the Tories. Nick Bourne looked visibly peed off that the First Minister has not made any efforts to contact him with any last minute offers. He admitted the ball is now in Rhodri Morgan's court, but it seems the First Minister doesn't want to play.

He's targeting all his energy on convincing the nationalists to come on board. And he may (eventually) get some success.

If he does and a budget scrapes through tomorrow, or perhaps more likely in the weeks to follow, expect talk of a Red-Green coalition to intensify.

One thing's for certain, that's more or less the end of any talk of rainbow coalitions and pots of gold for the Tories.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 5:44 pm, ,


Cattiest AM of the year award
Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Goes to Huw Lewis, AM for Merthyr.

It is a shame that there’s no Olympic event in backtracking because I think we’d have a nailed on gold for Ieuan Wyn Jones following the recent coalition “will they, won’t they” shenanigans. Bourne and German will have a fine battle for silver and bronze.

If push ever does come to shove, this is what a coalition of vested interests is going to look like. One step forward, two steps back, three side steps, and then all scurrying in different directions looking for cover.

More importantly, what on earth does "we’d have a nailed on gold" for Ieuan Wyn Jones mean? Sounds painful. Still, if you believe some Plaid AMs, that's the least he deserves.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 6:12 pm, ,


Assembly budget wriggle room

The Assembly have finally agreed on the budget. Well, not quite, some of them have agreed there's now some 'wriggle room' after Gordon Brown gave them an extra £9million today.

I'm not sure who came up with the phrase, but it's all over the blogs. Well, not all over the blogs, but it's in two of them, and that's good enough for me:

Peter Black:
Commenting on the Chancellor's statement, Welsh Liberal Democrat Assembly Leader, Mike German points out that the chancellor’s £9m is not enough to solve the problem, but it gives us some wriggle room.

“I hope that Labour will use this to re-open talks with all parties so we can agree a budget which ensures our teachers won’t see their jobs axed, and that students in our universities are not at a disadvantage compared with those in England. The ball is firmly in Labour’s court. Welsh Liberal Democrats remain committed to negotiating a budget which can be agreed by a majority in the National Assembly.”

Nick Bourne:
The Chancellor’s pre-budget report announces more cash for Wales over the next four years, although not a great deal in the next year only £9m. This does, however, provide some wriggle room for the First Minister and Sue Essex in terms of the budget.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 6:07 pm, ,


Budget crisis means new cars for the Tories
Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Wales briefly entertained the prospect of a non-Labour government today, before Ieuan Wyn Jones pulled the plug on it all with this statement:

'Any discussion of a coalition is unrealistic. Labour are the party in Government and they have the responsibility to deliver that budget. The issue remains whether or not Rhodri Morgan will put more money into education,' he said.

Word is that Plaid AMs forced him into a corner and poked him in the ribs until he clarified his earlier position, which hinted that he'd be prepared to go into coalition with the Tories and the Lib Dems if Labour was defeated on the budget.

The Tories, bless them, got somewhat carried away with it all. And the slightest sniff of power brought out their true colours, as they got to work on the blogs, dreaming of all the perks government would bring.

Alun Cairns:
Glyn and I had checked out the Ministerial cars to decide which one suited us best. I had visions of the chauffer picking me up in the morning, carrying my red box. I have always fancied Rhodri Morgan’s office and wondered whether I could negotiate an agreement with the others, in view of my need for a play pen for Henri. (Well, worth a try!) and wondered to where would my first overseas Ministerial visit be; New Zealand, Australia - I may even catch the Test Match...

Glyn Davies:
Bang goes my chance of being a Minister. No huge Ministerial salary. No Ministerial car. No huge staff to prepare my speeches etc. etc. etc.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 7:41 pm, ,


Crunch time for Rhodri

Followers of Welsh politics will know that the Assembly budget was rejected by opposition parties in October.

What should have followed was weeks of negotiations, eventually leading to a settlement which had something for all parties.

Today, that settlement wasn't reached.

The opposition parties held a joint press conference this afternoon outlining their continued opposition to the budget, after the latest talks faltered again last night.

Rhodri Morgan insisted he'd stick with the budget, and hinted he'd resign if defeated in the chamber next Wednesday.

The opposition said they'd form a coalition government if the Labour government were to resign over a defeated budget.

The sticking point is over public service investment. Labour finds itself in the strange position of facing a humiliating defeat because the Tories are demanding more money for public services. Surely, nothing better demonstrates the weird world of Welsh politics than that.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 6:44 pm, ,


Welsh parties can't pay for their promises
Monday, November 27, 2006

The plug's been pulled on wishful promises ahead of next year's assembly elections.

Treasury forecasts show that the Assembly's block grant will fall by at least 1% from next year. And while that may not sound like much, this is the pot of cash from which election pledges are being made.

Take Plaid's promise to double the budget for childcare provisions, which I wrote about HERE.

Plaid's leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, was asked how he intended to pay for it. He said: 'The money will be provided out of the increase there will be in the Assembly budget during [the next] four years. It doesn't come out of an individual policy area, it actually comes from the increase we expect in the budget over that period.'

But if that increase isn't as big as expected, what then?

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posted by Blamerbell @ 11:04 am, ,


Dafydd Elis Thomas - Lord of the Senedd
Monday, October 30, 2006

In the world of Dafydd Elis Thomas there's only one heavyweight politician in the Senedd: himself.

Yesterday, the Welsh Assembly's presiding officer spoke out against what he sees as the Senedd's inability to act like a 'proper parliamentary body'.

Elis Thomas took particular issue with the way in which the opposition opposed the budget rather than voting down the government in flat-out no confidence motions.

He then slung more mud in the direction of his deputy, John Marek, questioning his decision to vote against the government rather than help chair the debate.

Elis Thomas doesn't seem to grasp that the Senedd is not Westminster. And it's a jolly good thing it's not.

The opposition has every right to negotiate the budget. The government is ruling under a minority administration and shouldn't have carte blanche with the budget while there is a majority of elected representatives who don't agree with it.

The attempt to reign in Marek for the debate was infantile.

Elis Thomas is right: Wales does need grown up politics. For that it needs new presiding officers as soon as possible.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 3:02 pm, ,


How to save £1.599161 million
Thursday, October 19, 2006

£1.6 million.

That's how much the Welsh Assembly spends on... chairs!

I came across an information request on the Assembly's website in which Plaid's Owen John Thomas asks for details about the companies bidding to provide leather for the chairs in the chamber.

As you can see, the Assembly is a swanky new building and the chairs are in no way uncomfortable.

But £1.6 million to pad a politician's backside?

They could've gone to ikea and bought some sexy looking 'snille' chairs for just £13.99. The blurb says, "ideal for occasional use or shorter sitting purposes". Perfect for AMs who can't sit still for more than ten minutes.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 2:00 pm, ,