Red + Green = Brown
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Hardly the most inspiring colour, is it?
And yet, whether Wales is a car or an aeroplane, there seems to be mileage in the red-green Plaid-Labour idea again. Adam Price is all for it. And Edwina Hart used her first interview since the twentieth century to put her weight behind it too.
(Quite how any assembly member has managed to dodge the Welsh press for so long is a complete mystery. After all, there are only sixty of them. There should probably be a Dragon's Eye rota, just to even it out. At least that would give Helen Mary Jones some well-earned time off to go scarf shopping.)
Plaid and Labour in a grand coalition? Lefties everywhere are getting erect nipples just thinking about it.
But they haven't had to face Ieuan Wyn Jones. Does this man really fancy playing second fiddle to Rhodri's 'same-old' septet?
No.
He'd quite like to captain the ship himself. That's why the opposition are already behaving like a government in waiting in Cardiff Bay, with joint strategies and chummy tell-all telephone conversations between the leaders.
Adam Price is evidently doing everything he can to make a deal with Labour more palatable. After all, his father was a miner don't you know.
For all it matters, Ieuan Wyn Jones' father might as well have been Aneurin Bevan. He's still pushing for the rainbow.
Six weeks, then, to make or break a government. And at the end of it, most of the parties in Wales could be faced with seismic splits.
Labour is set for an internal battle whether it teams up with Plaid Cymru or not. And if Plaid go with Labour, Ieuan Wyn Jones' position would look very shaky. But then again, a deal with the Tories would cause a massive rupture with the left of the party. Meanwhile, Mike German and Nick Bourne really need to deliver the rainbow coalition to be sure of their jobs.
My prediction: I'll go out on a limb and say that three of the parties will have different leaders by the next assembly election. Within the next few months there'll be some sort of deal between the parties. And that means losers as well as winners.
Labels: coalition, Ieuan Wyn Jones, Labout, Plaid Cymru, politics, red-green coalition, Rhodri Morgan
posted by Blamerbell @ 2:03 am,
43 Comments:
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At 7:23 am,
said...
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Those on the left in Plaid really need to make up their minds what they want to do. The basic problem is that Plaid is a coalition of contradictions. There are those who like the late Saunders Lewis see the party as the vehicle to protect and nourish Welsh language and culture. Their aim is independence. On social and economic policy they are often very right wing. There are others on the other hand who see themselves as socialists and the true heirs to the Welsh radical tradition going back to the Merthyr riots. In England many of them would be members of some fringe Trotskist party. They joined Pliad because they believed that the British Labour party would never deliver socialism. They were also motivated by a dislike of many of the personalities in Welsh Labour at both a national and local Labour. This caolition had no problem sticking togethera slong as it was in permanent opposition. But its now make your ind up time. If they decide to go withthe rainbow option it will mean supporting Tory ministers. Perhaps some of them could explain how this will advance the cause of socialism in Wales. It isn't any use boycotting the Queen and then supporting another queen as a minister in vote after vote in the assembly.
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At 9:29 am,
said...
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If Plaid decide to go with the red-green alliance with Labour - Ieuan MUST demand 40% of cabinet representation for Plaid and all the plaid policies he would have got via the Rainbow. If he gets less then I think that Blamer is right and he'll be one of the casualties.
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At 9:44 am,
said...
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The sense I get within plaid is that the Rainbow is still seen as the best way to establish Wales as a grown up Nation and to get our policies implemented. You will see this groundswell of opinion clearly at the conference in July.
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At 9:47 am,
said...
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so how does this play out?...Red-Green = German out (and unhappy nat-haters in Labour strongholds). Kirsty gets to be boss of Lib dems in 2008
and plots to form an alliance with nat-hating new leader of Labour party as soon as Rhodri goes in 2009. Labour-Plaid is not sustainable. -
At 10:17 am,
said...
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Isn't it really true to say that Wales is still a 3 party system confused, as an earlier post suggests, by Plaid who are a convenient vehicle for an opposition party only? A mix of views brought together to attack a government.
For there to be a real shake up and progress we need everyone to get off their pots and go and show their true colours. If that means "crossing the floor" then so be it.
Of course that won't happen, becaus at least now Plaid members can carry their baggage and still be selected/elected, many wouldn't be so fourtunate in the party of their true beliefs. -
At 10:19 am,
Cymro said...
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I agree with the comment on the groundswell within Plaid - most of us aren't ecstatic about working with the Tories but if the Rainbow is the only game in town, we should go for it. Ieuan Wyn Jones isn't going to be overthrown for saying just that. Brown is a preferred option if we get a deal that suits us.
Plaid will be winners either way. Brown will be a loss for the Tories. Labour lose out in either case - they won't get their wn way, And Lib Dems are and will always be losers. -
At 10:52 am,
said...
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Plaid and Adam Price are basically saying they will go into a formal coalition with labour and appear to be ruling out anything less.
Rhodri will find it impossible to get such a deal through his party. I thin Plaid know that, that's why they are offering the impossible so that when Labour can't deliver they can fall back on the rainbow coalition as the "last option". -
At 11:11 am,
said...
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Anon 7.23am. NICE! Some casual homophobia ("then supporting another queen as a minister"), ignorance (the implication that Saunders Lewis supported independence - he didn't...it's actually the party's left that has traditionally supported independence) and delusion (the implication that Labour is a socialist party - yeah right, the party that has given us Iraq, an increasing gap between rich and poor, etc.), all thrown into the mix. You wouldn't know a 'progressive alliance' if it hit you over the head. Grow up.
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At 11:37 am,
said...
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cymro said:
"Plaid will be winners either way. Brown will be a loss for the Tories. Labour lose out in either case - they won't get their wn way, And Lib Dems are and will always be losers. "
The group of four in Plaid are really offshoots of the extreme of both Labour and Liberal. I knew lots like Leanne in the liberal party in the past. They never want to be in government, they use a party as a platform for publicity. It's up to parties to decide if they allow candidates like this to stand for AMs.
Oddly, the Tories are remaining fairly quiet about the coalition. Cameron is likely to be PM in two years and this will affect Wales in a big way. Perhaps the type of coalition should be considered after having a deep look at what the Tories are offering to Wales. -
At 11:49 am,
said...
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anonymous 7:23 AM
What on earth has all that got to do with what is going on in Wales in 2007?
We've had enough of theorists, enough academics trying to 'solve' our problems, enough of the most very uninformed information about the language, the Welsh and about the real people who live in Wales right now.
They have very little in common with the Welsh on Saunders Lewis' day.
What we want is hands on government for the people even if it means a coalition. Whichever party that can deliver a better economy, better health care, better education and a better society for all. After the mistakes done to Wales with both Labour and Tories it looks like we must seriously consider a coalition now. -
At 12:46 pm,
said...
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Anon said:
I knew lots like Leanne in the liberal party in the past. They never want to be in government"
Peter Hain was one too. He decided that he wanted to get into government and joined the Labour Party. -
At 1:36 pm,
said...
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Plaid and Adam Price are basically saying they will go into a formal coalition with labour and appear to be ruling out anything less.
Er, no actually. It's just Adam. -
At 1:37 pm,
said...
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I want to be in Government just not with the Tories. Red green all the way!
This way Ieuan's power grabbing will be put to an end. THis emperor in New clothes needs to come back to reality. He is a tragically weak leader. -
At 2:25 pm,
said...
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Anonymous said...
"I want to be in Government just not with the Tories. Red green all the way!
This way Ieuan's power grabbing will be put to an end. THis emperor in New clothes needs to come back to reality. He is a tragically weak leader. "
I sniff something not quite right here. I don't think you're Plaid for a start. You might have got away with the first comment but the rest? Too mean and bitter and untrue, like Labour mud slinging. Ieuan has shown himself superb during and since the election. At least Plaid have a
*choice* of good statesmen and there is no need for competition, nor waste of energy to debate it when there are far more important issues to talk about. -
At 2:27 pm,
said...
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We've really got to be on our toes to watch out for trolls who post misinformation!
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At 4:07 pm,
said...
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Blamerbell, by the title of this post, are you suggesting that the motivation for Edwina Hart intervention is coming from 11 Downing Street?
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At 4:08 pm,
gwe said...
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Hope Blamer doesn't mind if I respond to more than one comment...
Nonnies:
7.23 "The basic problem is that Plaid is a coalition of contradictions."
Isn't every party?
"In England many of them would be members of some fringe Trotskist party."
Since 'Trotskyist' is basically NuLab speak for anyone on the Left they don't agree with, I think we might deduce that this Nonnie is the spawn of Millbank.
10.17 "Isn't it really true to say that Wales is still a 3 party system..."
Possibly, but you'll find that most Lib Dems would disagree :)
Ordovicius : "Er, no actually. It's just Adam."
Count me in as well, so that makes two :) -
At 5:07 pm,
Geraint said...
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I made a post about this on my blog. I think that Labour should try and attempt to get a Red-Green coalition, both because it could result in Wales being able to persue a more social democratic policies, with more powers to do more. It would also be tatically sound for Labour to do this, since it Labour do it openly, fairly, honestly and making as sure as possible that Plaid would find it hard to get a serious reason to reject it. This would mean that if Plaid do reject it, it would show them up for being power hungry.
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At 5:13 pm,
said...
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Wasn't there some TV detective whose catchline was "I want the facts. Gimme the facts!"?
There's a sensible consensus that the Red/Green thing is just another smokescreen to justify the Tory alliance and a fig leaf for people who want left-wing credibility if and when it happens. "We tried, comrades ..."
This isn't just one for the media village. The key question is how will voters across the political spectrum react when they see Tory ministers faces over their coffee and corn-flakes?
It's not just a left/right thing. There's a basic issue of trust. Most voters never even dreamed of a Tory/Plaid link-up. Is it too much to ask some media organisation or academic institution to ask voters before it happens?
According to some LibDems, the rainbow package is financially undeliverable. Anybody out there got the figures? -
At 9:09 pm,
said...
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"Most voters never even dreamed of a Tory/Plaid link-up."
Then obviously the Labour campaign and message was even less effectual than some allege it to be. Vote green, get blue was a perpetual refrain.
Returning to the main thrust of this thread, Labour has moved a long way in the last month to openly acknowledge the changing dynamics in Welsh politics. Things will never be quite the same again, and our politics is richer for it. -
At 9:29 pm,
said...
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daran said:
"Things will never be quite the same again, and our politics is richer for it. "
If nothing happens in the Bay then we will be very much poorer for it. We need a government of action, we cannot afford to sit back and fight party politics while Wales goes down the drain.
There will probably be a change of government in Westminster in a couple of years and ideally those making desisions in Wales and for Wales now keep this in mind. -
At 9:38 pm,
said...
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Iolo said
"According to some LibDems, the rainbow package is financially undeliverable. Anybody out there got the figures? "
"according to the Lib/Dems". It was one of their excuses why they made such a botch up after the election. Sounds clever, but they always say it.
Any package is going to seem financially impossible. Plaid has got experts working on their costings but the Lib/Dems, IIRC wanted their own package of uncosted policies included and that made all of it financially undeliverable in their eyes.
If they are part of a coalition they must learn to be more politically savvy and to work with others. -
At 9:38 pm,
said...
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Iolo said
"According to some LibDems, the rainbow package is financially undeliverable. Anybody out there got the figures? "
"according to the Lib/Dems". It was one of their excuses why they made such a botch up after the election. Sounds clever, but they always say it.
Any package is going to seem financially impossible. Plaid has got experts working on their costings but the Lib/Dems, IIRC wanted their own package of uncosted policies included and that made all of it financially undeliverable in their eyes.
If they are part of a coalition they must learn to be more politically savvy and to work with others. -
At 9:52 pm,
said...
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If you're using light rather than paint, Red + Green = Yellow.
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At 11:14 pm,
said...
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Plaid? Power hungry? Desperate more like.
Their core voters will not forget their treachery by cosying up with the Tories..
Who would have imagined these two totally incompatible parties 'getting into bed together'? (Please note, no queen references).
Their desperation is further exemplified by a suggestion that they should "demand" 40% of Cabinet seats and all of the Plaid policies in the Rainbow.
Now I can just see Rhodri agreeing to that.
I think that Adam Price has the right idea. Keeping his 'powder dry' for the moment. Seeing what's on offer.
The Rainbow is a dead duck and dead ducks do not swim in circles. They usually sink without trace. Maybe in this case it's rotten carcase will continue to pollute the Welsh Political scene for a while.
Poor Ieuan has shown his hand and it looks as if he will be the first party leader to suffer Blamer's prediction.
Cymro has summed it up quite well.
Cymro said...
"I agree with the comment on the groundswell within Plaid - most of us aren't ecstatic about working with the Tories but if the Rainbow is the only game in town, we should go for it."
That's right, stuff the principles. Let's go for it boys, it's only a game.
Power at any price.....
Your potentially predictive pal.
johnny. -
At 1:40 am,
said...
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Plaid? Power hungry? Desperate more like.
Sour grapes.
Their core voters will not forget their treachery by cosying up with the Tories..
Ah, a Labour bunny
Who would have imagined these two totally incompatible parties 'getting into bed together'?
Haven't read the manifestos then, eh
Their desperation is further exemplified by a suggestion that they should "demand" 40% of Cabinet seats and all of the Plaid policies in the Rainbow.
That's not actually desperation then, is it? Desperate people don't make demands.
I think that Adam Price has the right idea. Keeping his 'powder dry' for the moment. Seeing what's on offer.
Now THAt is desperate
The Rainbow is a dead duck
Denial now. You are quite upset then.
Poor Ieuan has shown his hand and it looks as if he will be the first party leader to suffer Blamer's prediction.
By becoming the first Plaid leader to get into government? I think not!
That's right, stuff the principles. Let's go for it boys, it's only a game.
Good ole Labour. How we shall miss them. Not. -
At 1:44 am,
said...
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Things will never be quite the same again, and our politics is richer for it.
And about time too. -
At 2:30 am,
said...
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Not me ordovicius.
No "ole labour" here.
My Ballot papers are quite clearly marked "None of these turkeys".
We really should have a facility for voting "None of the Above". That would shake 'em up.
This Assembly is largely populated with lightweight amateurs, ex local councillors and general 'committee' people. There are a few credible poiticians and no matter how you try to 'big-up' the Rainbow it just ain't gonna happen.
To give the Levers over to this rag-bag and incompatible coalition of self-serving trough-snouters would spell tragedy for Wales.
It would be like giving a 17 year old who has just passed their Driving Test a Ferrari to drive.
The only person currently in the Assembly to have any degree of leadership is our pal Rhodri. At least he has a bit of experience and retains a smidgin of his social conscience.
The rest of 'em offer little in the way of credible policy to improve life in Wales for the majority.
IMHO, too much emphasis is already given over to preservation of so-called Welsh Culture and Language at the expense of clearly necessary Health Service needs. Social Service provision needs improvement. Mental Health Services are at breaking point...and so much more which could improve our lives.
Eisteddfords do not float my boat and getting my Electricity bill in Welsh is a waste of my money.
Yet all these Rainbow people seem to be able to talk about is how they can cobble together a coalition to bring down the current administration.
The only real hope for Wales is a fresh election where the core voters of Plaid, who were misled by their AMs over ties with the Tories, can return to the fold with a somewhat chastened Labour Party, who, I am sure, will now recognise the error of their ways and amend their stand-point accordingly.
I think the current Session will be most illuminating but nonetheless irritating with all of the in-fighting.
I really don't think that much WORK is going to be done for some time.
Your partly political pal.
johnny. -
At 7:54 am,
said...
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The assembly isn't a council where you can put together any majority and then decide not to take any difficult decisions for the next four years.The only reason for any nationalist party's existence is to obtain independence which is something the SNP at least understands. Perhaps the Plaid members who support a coalition involving the Tories could explain how this will help them achieve their ultimate aim of independence. I know that many in Plaid are scared of the word even now telling us that it was only the left in the party in the 20th century that believed in freedom for little old Wales. Whatever happened to the policy adopted in the 1930s that Wales should become another Canada with a seat in The League of Nations?If independence isn't the ultimate aim of Plaid activists then it begs the question of what is the point of a nationalist party that doesn't even believe in independence? The simple fact is that Labour is the largest party in the assembly with the largest number of votes. No one on May 3rd voted for a rainbow coalition.Before this comes about there should be another election to ask the Welsh people whether they support this option. It would be interesting to see how many voters will vote Plaid when it could lead to a cabinet which contains Tories.
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At 8:41 am,
David Roberts said...
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Let me get this straight Johnny Foreigner wants another election so he can vote for none of the above again. Now that is a waste of money.
Labour are the largest pary in Wales and need to act in a mature, progressive and inclusive way for the people of Wales. -
At 10:42 am,
Unknown said...
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The best thing that Labour can do is now stand aside - either to let Plaid join them in a formal Red-Green coalition, or to let the Rainbow coalition in.
But the status quo is unsustainable -
At 11:28 am,
said...
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anonymous said:
" No one on May 3rd voted for a rainbow coalition.Before this comes about there should be another election to ask the Welsh people whether they support this option. It would be interesting to see how many voters will vote Plaid when it could lead to a cabinet which contains Tories. "
It's very doubtful that Labour wants another election now. They well me decimated as the electorate are a lot more sophisticated since May 3rd.
It's interesting how you think more about what Plaid is thinking than Plaid itself. It is like watching someone saying how an old radio works and new technology cannot be real. -
At 1:10 pm,
said...
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Daran, of course the Labour campaign - which may now turn out to be true - worked. This might explain why Plaid did worse than the SNP with their up-front 'No Tories' policy.
And of course Labour may be changing but that's because what the voters decided on 3rd May.
All this Tory guff has blocked progress towards that. Can't see voters being happy with these Cardiff Bay games. Not doing much for the Assembly's credibility. And with 3 options on the table so far, isn't it possible they will think Plaid is becoming the Silly Party? -
At 2:43 pm,
said...
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Iolo said:
"And of course Labour may be changing but that's because what the voters decided on 3rd May."
Can't see Gordon Brown changing away from New Labour. He won't care a stitch what goes on in Wales. As for the voters, doesn't the result say they WANT a change?
Maybe anything other than New Labour? The situation with Rhodri the head of a minority Lab government is untenable in anybody's eyes. The voters do not trust New Labour and the Tories. A Rainbow government including the Tories is more palatable for many. Welsh Tories have shown they are more sympathetic to Welsh issues while there is a very strong anti-Welsh group in New Labour.
There will likely be a Tory government in Westminster in a couple of years and a Rainbow government will probably be best for Wales then. -
At 4:38 pm,
said...
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That's right, stuff the principles. Let's go for it boys, it's only a game.
But isnt politics all about power -without it politicians may as well be one legged ducks -
At 5:43 pm,
Cymro said...
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That's the point, Johnny. Politics is about looking for the power to put your beliefs into action - everybody knows that. Except the minority who think protesting and opposition are better - because they have no sensible policies...
A Labour minority government is not sustainable - unless everyone finds miraculous consensus on all isses, we'll have 4 years of nothing at all going on in Cardiff. I would hope that Labour offer Plaid a good deal. If not, Plaid should go with the Raindbow if Labour won't play ball. The Rainbow offers Plaid a platform to build on our aims for social justice and nationalism.
If that seems power grabbing, welcome to reality. The world is run by people who seek the platforms on which they can be heard. -
At 5:49 pm,
said...
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I'm a core Plaid voter. You'd have to be an idiot not to know a rainbow coalition was on the cards, Labour kept saying so, even IWJ said as much.
I'd be happy to see a Rainbow coalition. Firstly because we need a change from failed labour, secondly because the Kinnockite wing of the party strike me as being obnoxious human beings. -
At 6:37 pm,
said...
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Where did this myth come from that a minority government isn't sustainable? Sombody'd better tell Alex Salmond: he's got less elected members than even Rhodri Morgan.
But then, he's an anti-Tory, anti-nuclear independista with charisma. Don't the 'small Wales nationalists' who support the Tories look to what's happening in Scotland?
With a minority Labour government, Plaid could wring much more out of Labour. Allied with the Tories, Plaid will be British Labour's best recruiting sergeant. -
At 7:15 pm,
Cymro said...
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A minority government is sustainable in the sense that it can continue in the face of opposition. It gan govern and run departments. But Labour's programme is a controversial one and they can't deliver on it alone.
One would say the same of any minority government - without some form of agreement with the opposition, you are not going to be able to get your legislation approved.
Anon 5:49 PM, what do you mean by Kinnockite, and why are they obnoxious? -
At 7:34 pm,
said...
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Another good thread with plenty of diverse opinion. We may have a debate going on here.
Nonny at 7.54 AM puts it nicely.
Plaid, a party that now, apparently, claims not to want full Independence, please correct me if I am wrong, seems to have little purpose in its present guise as the descendant of the Welsh Nationalist Party. It's not too late to change. Hey! you might even get my vote.
I have said before that I believe that Plaid has to reform and restructure itself to become a Party to represent ALL in Wales and not just those that agree with their narrow Nationalism.
dewi_o said...
Let me get this straight Johnny Foreigner wants another election so he can vote for none of the above again. Now that is a waste of money.
johnny says....
Come on Dewi. My proposal for a vote for 'None of the Above' is absolutely serious.
It may well come to pass that voting be made compulsory. If none of the candidates meet my approval what am I to do? Vote for a candidate against my will? Refuse to vote? Spoil my paper? or, vote None of the Above.
Would you deny me the choice?
If sufficient people voted thus it sends a clear message to the Parties that their policies do not meet with the approval of the Electorate.
My current option is to vote for the Parties and their policies, spoil my paper or just don't vote.
What would you suggest? Should I forfieit my vote? It's up to you.
anonymous said:
" No one on May 3rd voted for a rainbow coalition.Before this comes about there should be another election to ask the Welsh people whether they support this option. It would be interesting to see how many voters will vote Plaid when it could lead to a cabinet which contains Tories. "
My sentiments exactly.
Cymro and valleys mam said.....
Politics is about Power.
Absolutely, but, and it's BIG BUT.
When a party is prepared to shun its core principals to ally with a party that is an anathaema to its silent core voters that is shameful and deceitful.
Plaid did NOT canvass on the basis of a coalition with the Tories. End of.
Nonny at 5.49 PM....
...describes voters who did not realise that Plaid intended a coalition with the Tories as IDIOTS.
That's not very nice and furthermore is quite disrespectful to the many Plaid voters who were fooled this time and did not realise that this unholy alliance was on the agenda.
Are these cracks that I see before me? Is Plaid in division? I do hope so.
The chance for them to reform is still there.
Your potentially Plaid pal.
johnny. -
At 9:54 pm,
ganesh family said...
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I support JF and vote for none of the above.
Anon- "No one voted for a rainbow" of course not it wasn't on the ballot paper. You don't vote for a rainbow, you vote for the party or personality of your choice, the fact that the party or peronalities party did not get a majority is not the voters fault as they are not aware of the options should no one have a majority big enough to form a govt.
Rainbows form after the votes are counted.
We have to live with the fact that the number of AM's and the voting system leave us with a flawed process. -
At 9:57 pm,
said...
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Interesting how things have panned out in the past month, with Plaid being the pivot to the two future alliances being discussed.
Plaid's decision will either be for long or short-term gain...
(1) short-term gain - the Rainbow will reward a few Plaid people with titles and chauffeur-driven cars before they retire.
It will not deliver on greater powers because Labour will unite in its opposition and effectively block everything.
Plaid will also have the Tories with a powerful veto within the Rainbow alliance. Will they introduce radical measures if they think the Tories will veto them? So the Tories then hold the whip hand.
The Tories have asked for nothing from this alliance - why? Because they want to drive a wedge into Plaid and become the second party in Wales. It's a cunning strategy.
The All-Wales Accord is light on substance - even Plaid's laptop promise has been watered down to a pilot scheme.
(2) long-term gain - the Red-Green will see a referendum for more powers and drive a wedge into Labour's fractious ranks, splitting Unionists and pro-Devos.
With some bargaining between now and Plaid's NC in July, the Red-Green can deliver on substantive issues like council housing (which is slightly more important than tat like free toothbrushes). -
At 6:23 pm,
Unknown said...
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Plaid, like every other party, is an umbrella organisation, and probably Plaid is more than most. We are all entitled to our different views and opinions, but when it comes to the crunch we are united. We have to be because without that unity of purpose and solidarity as a party we will surely fall. Our common aim is independence for Cymru, let us not forget it, and the welfare of our nation, the community of Wales. Alan in Dyfed
