Lib Dems won't do a 'Lib Dem'
Monday, June 18, 2007

A while back, I wrote a post titled Red + Green = Brown. It seems I was being more prophetic than I had intended, since it was written on the day Gordon Brown came to town. From that moment, the Red-Green deal has had a whole lot more momentum.

Why?

Well, Gordon doesn't really fancy beginning his premiership with two rogue Celtic states gnawing at his ankles. A rainbow coalition in Wales would see the Tories back in power and would give David Cameron a huge PR boost. Worse still, Labour would look like a party of opposition again.

New Labour arguably won the last two general elections on the waning momentum of their enormous first victory in 1997. Ten years ago, Tony Blair had his cake and ate it, feeding on a Britain bloated with optimism. Now, there's barely a crumb of that good will left.

Gordon Brown is going to have to rebuild. Scotland is already lost, but he can't afford to lose too much more ground. Rhodri Morgan says he spoke to the PM in waiting about the situation in Wales. I'd imagine it was the other way around. Brown probably spoke to Rhodri and told him to sort it out.

But Rhodri being Rhodri decided he'd muddy the waters by opening the door to the Lib Dems again and the media have rushed to have a merry little walk around Mike German's well-worn garden path.

There isn't much else Mike German can say other than if Plaid and Labour agree on a document, he'll go back to his party and "look again". He's still "committed" to the All-Wales Accord and has no intention of "steering that ship up onto the rocks". Hardly the words of a man with his hands on the rainbow rug, poised to pull.

And if he did pull, he might only fall flat on his arse. By that time, a Red-Green document would already have been drawn up. Much like the All-Wales Accord, it would be released to the public and, if the election results are anything to go by, it would excite more people than any Lib-Lab alternative. But much worse than that, it was the Lib Dems who were ridiculed for steering the rainbow ship up onto the rocks; they could really suffer from sinking the Red-Green ship too.

UPDATE: Something for the Lib Dems to sing and dance about at last: Britain's Got Talent winner, Pol Pot, is a former Lib Dem councillor.

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posted by Blamerbell @ 1:33 pm,

36 Comments:

At 2:08 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm having a change of heart after all that's been in the news about the conservatives. We really do not know what drives them, they're already gunning out for Cameron. We know what spooks the Lib Dems have in their back room, indeed they bring them out often, but we do not know what ogres the conservatives have behind all that smooth exterior.

Could Plaid cope better with the valley terriers?

 
At 3:26 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's not the terriers that are the problem for Plaid, but the Labour MPs with a taste for the London life.

A red/green coalition could actually give the left in English Labour a real lift, pushing policies through that offer real hope to those who despair every time a New Labour Minister appears on the news.

 
At 3:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It's not the terriers that are the problem for Plaid, but the Labour MPs with a taste for the London life."

Yeah, that same london life *cough* Adam Price likes.

 
At 3:30 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is a party that will say and do almost anything for a vote. They have more faces than a book of mugshots and are more than capable to turning things upside down once more.

You underestimate their shallowness Blamerbell.

 
At 3:35 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It's not the terriers that are the problem for Plaid, but the Labour MPs with a taste for the London life."

Yeah, that same london life *cough* Adam Price likes.



When it comes to MPs getting elected and then disappearing for 4 years rarely stepping outside the M25, Labour in Wales have plenty of skeletons in their closet. They always have a dig at Adam Price because he practices in his politics what so many so called socialist MPs can only preach.

Jealousy is a terrible thing.

 
At 3:41 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

"It's not the terriers that are the problem for Plaid, but the Labour MPs with a taste for the London life."

Quite. But I doubt Brown will tolerate petulence if he throws his weight behind keeping Labour in power in Wales.

Wayne David will have to take it out on his oboe.

 
At 3:44 pm, Blogger Clear Red Water said...

"Jealousy is a terrible thing."

Tell me one policy or change to life in Wales Adam Price has made?

 
At 4:00 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't remember him brown-nosing to Blair and supporting the Iraq war, like Mr Bryant?

In a party of 3 MPs in London, he is hardly in a position to drive the political agenda but his constituents don't seem to mind as however much money Labour and the unions throw at his consituency to get him out, his majority keeps going up.

The personal smears put around by Labour are a sure sign that his local representation and political campaigning is hurting the two-faced pseudo Tories running the modern Labour party.

You just can't accept that Plaid have politicians more socialist and inspiring than Labour, can you?
You used to have some, but their replacements are mostly weeded out at candidate selection time.

 
At 4:06 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why does no-one realise that Plaid and the LDs have been picked off by Labour and are being played against each other to wreck any chance of the rainbow? Labour would clearly prefer to deal with the LDs and if they feel that the rainbow is being sunk (by Plaid foolishly taking Labour at their word) then surely the LDs will scupper that Red/Green pact and go in with Labour and Plaid will have lost out on leading the WAG. Plaid really need to take a moment and think this through - if they forget the rainbow they will end up with egg on their face and in opposition.

 
At 4:12 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree that Plaid should keep both options open, but both are not closed until their National Council has decided. I am told that if the recommendation from their NEC is not accepted by their Council, then the discarded option could be re-considered.

Please someone confirm if this is the case.

 
At 4:14 pm, Blogger Clear Red Water said...

"You just can't accept that Plaid have politicians more socialist and inspiring than Labour, can you?
You used to have some, but their replacements are mostly weeded out at candidate selection time."

But then Plaid havent won a constituency seat out of their heartlands. It is very easy to fall back into the 'left' comfort zone when very little other than local politics is at stake isnt it?

Nuclear power? Plaid are against it unless it involved jobs in the leaders constituency being lost.

My point is that government office is very difficult, it is not merely about writing a manifesto and letting the rest take care of itself. Events, geo political pressures and markets have a big impact on governments, Plaid have yet to grasp this because they havent run anything bigger than a Gywnedd farmers Dance!

It is telling that Plaid's demands with regards a red/green coaltion dont include- 3% targets on CO2, no mention on the hospital reconfiguration, no 5 grand housing grants, no nurses pay deal, no pr in local government and no laptops.

I wonder why that is?

Because Labour are offering independence by stealth to Plaid. Which trumps any supposed commitment to the 'forward looking' platfrom that the rainbow was meant to be. Nationalism trumps socialism wouldnt you agree?

 
At 4:14 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

Plaid's assembly group will make the recommendation, which will be greenlighted by the NEC and put to the National Council.

 
At 4:33 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

But then Plaid havent won a constituency seat out of their heartlands.

I'm not sure that I'd qualify Llanelli as being in Plaid's "Heartland".

 
At 4:35 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

'It is telling that Plaid's demands with regards a red/green coaltion dont include- 3% targets on CO2, no mention on the hospital reconfiguration, no 5 grand housing grants, no nurses pay deal, no pr in local government and no laptops.'


How come you are party to the negotiations? I have certainly not seen what is on offer but there is a lot more than just the constitutional question. In your response, I think you attempted to defend Labour's support for the Iraq war under some 'geopolitical' stance. Please explain more as I am keen to understand what most of the western world also failed to understand.

On the point of nurses pay, I note that the nationalists of Scotland have agreed to the pay deal, agianst the will of your 'socialist' colleagues in England.

As a socialist, I see the main difference between Plaid and Labour as not one of political positioning but of priorities. Plaid's priority is Wales and its 3 million citizens and Labour's is power, over Wales' 3 million subjects.

Having said all that, I'll still work with you if it means Wales gains and by having law making powers, we will have the ability to bypass a right wing New Labour government and have more ability to take on poverty, injustice and promote equality. It's not just about itentity, you know.

 
At 4:39 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blamerbell said:-

"Plaid's assembly group will make the recommendation, which will be greenlighted by the NEC and put to the National Council."



I'm sorry to be awkward but what happens if their Council declines the option offered and states a preference for the other? Can they do this?

 
At 4:45 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Freddy said...
" then surely the LDs will scupper that Red/Green pact and go in with Labour and Plaid will have lost out on leading the WAG. "

All six of them Freddy against the whole of Plaid?
They're too busy watching each other.

 
At 4:46 pm, Blogger Clear Red Water said...

"I think you attempted to defend Labour's support for the Iraq war under some 'geopolitical' stance. Please explain more as I am keen to understand what most of the western world also failed to understand."

i did nothing of the sort, Iraq was a huge mistake not matter what the political pressures. But you must be very naive to not believe that much of our economic power involves America's support? Now that doesnt excuse Blair's mistake with regard Iraq. Our financial dependence on America will always mean we will be leant on when they want our support- rightly or wrongly that is the case. In Blair's case he was hugely wrong and has tainted the Labour Party. However it is something that was opposed by many within the Labour Party at all stages.




I was merely saying that geopolitical pressures have a huge bearing on things like government spending, job creation and environmental targets. Such pressures have nothing to do with manifestos or even the welsh assembly.

 
At 4:47 pm, Blogger Blamerbell said...

They will only be able to "declare a preference" for the option in front of them, which will be chosen by the group.

They could always reject it.

 
At 4:51 pm, Blogger Clear Red Water said...

"I'm not sure that I'd qualify Llanelli as being in Plaid's "Heartland"."

It still involves a welsh speaking area in the west of the country. And a seat that was subject to a very localised campaign- ie the hospital issue.

 
At 4:55 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Clear Red Water said...
"'left' comfort zone when very little other than local politics is at stake isnt it?"

The Assembly isn't local politics.

" Events, geo political pressures and markets have a big impact on governments,"

That's undisputed, but it can also be an excuse for economical neglect.

"Plaid have yet to grasp this because they havent run anything bigger than a Gywnedd farmers Dance!"

Cheeky.


"no mention on the hospital reconfiguration, no 5 grand housing grants, no nurses pay deal, no pr in local government and no laptops."

Well I read a Plaid manifesto during the election and ALL those were Plaid policies. Are you sure you are not siding with the wrong party Clear Red Water?

"I wonder why that is?"

Someone is confused. I have an odd feeling you should be in Plaid.

 
At 5:04 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I accept the international role that any nation has in terms of its economy, the environment and human rights etc. Yet the UK relationship with the US under Blair has been slavish to the point of embarrassment, as their former President Carter stated recently.

I hope that this is not also an excuse for spending billions on Trident (something that might come the way of West Wales if it's booted out of Scotland-Devonport being a bit built up for such facilities). Please tell me that you are against this.

When Labour got back in, one of their main policy promises was to change the UK attitude to the arms trade yet they have stooped to levels that even the Tories feared to tread. It hasn't all been bad in foreign policy. Blair has been sincere about Africa and N Ireland (the Rebublic next door being the foreign bit) has been a triumph, with a hat tip to Major and all the Irish party leaders.

New Labour was created to beat the Tories, but there is no reason why Wales has to accept the right wing compromises to win over a generally more Conservative English electorate. A Parliament offers so much more than the present model, even with the new powers and that is why the Plaid demand for a Parliament should be welcomed by genuine socialists in Wales and not scorned. We have no hidden agenda. This is afterall Wales and nothing stays hidden for long. We have a long term goal of Wales as a self-governing nation state but this can never happen without the will of Wales, through a further referendum. Also, it's fair to say that our economy, health, infrastructure and education need radical improvement before we can even consider such a move.

 
At 5:04 pm, Blogger Clear Red Water said...

"no mention on the hospital reconfiguration, no 5 grand housing grants, no nurses pay deal, no pr in local government and no laptops."

Well I read a Plaid manifesto during the election and ALL those were Plaid policies. Are you sure you are not siding with the wrong party Clear Red Water?"

YOU MISS MY POINT!!

My point is that Plaid before this potential deal made it clear that such policies were so forward looking compared to Labour. They now have ditched all them to get independence by stealth. I am not agreeing with Plaid's manifesto- i am questioning if they were so important and so much better than Labour why have they ditched them?

Any Labour/Plaid will involve Labour's manifesto plus three things- barnett, referendum and welsh language act. Three things that many in Labour dont really oppose in principle anyway.

 
At 5:05 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

clear red water said:


"Our financial dependence on America will always mean we will be leant on when they want our support- "

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that paid off a year or so ago?

 
At 5:06 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

clear red water said:


"Our financial dependence on America will always mean we will be leant on when they want our support- "

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that paid off a year or so ago?

 
At 5:15 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Our biggest export partners are Germany and not the US, I believe?

Also, why are Labour in Wales against reviewing the Barnett block if such a review could reveal that we are being shortchanged up to £800 million a year?

 
At 5:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Blamerbell said:-

"Plaid's assembly group will make the recommendation, which will be greenlighted by the NEC and put to the National Council."

That's 15 key people - and a surprising lack of speculation on the blogs as to how they are splitting / will split.

Their group is certainly leaking less than some others - and that's helping their negotiating hand.

 
At 5:17 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Mr Clear Red Water,

I believe that there is a little more to the red/green deal than you have read in the press. Basing your argument on the facts may pay more dividends.

 
At 5:20 pm, Blogger View from the Glen said...

Clear red water wrote But you must be very naive to not believe that much of our economic power involves America's support?

Now correct me if i am wrong. america was our banker thanks to Labour and conservative governments!

Wilson would not critisise Vietnam beecause we were over our heads in debt to them.

 
At 5:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Clear Red Water said...

"YOU MISS MY POINT!!"

Don't shout at me!

"Any Labour/Plaid will involve Labour's manifesto plus three things- barnett, referendum and welsh language act. Three things that many in Labour dont really oppose in principle anyway. "


Now I'm totally confused. Can we bet here? I bet that Plaid have asked for a hxll of a lot more.

 
At 5:56 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's 15 key people - and a surprising lack of speculation on the blogs as to how they are splitting / will split.



5-6 for a deal with Labour
9-10 for a rainbow

Which is why the red-green debate, though stimulating, is largely irrelevent, unless of course Rhodri can offer something better than a rainbow.

As Labour bloggers such as Normal Mouth have pointed out, Rhodri can NOT guarantee a referendum coupled with a 100% commitment on the part of the Labour Party to a 'Yes' campaign. So despite Plaid's lefties airing their wet dreams about some kind of red-green Utopia, the rainbow still remains the most likely outcome as things currently stand.

 
At 7:01 pm, Blogger Seneddwr said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At 7:02 pm, Blogger Seneddwr said...

Ordovicius - had an interesting chat with a Plaid colleague today, who reeled off similar figures - but flipped, with a majority in favour of a brave new era of 'brown' Government in Wales. Should be interesting either way. Sure there will be fireworks at the Labour Group meeting tomorrow...

 
At 11:43 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did anyone see the letter in the Western Mail on Monday from Labour's former leader in South Glamorgan.

I only know one Robert Morgan of St David's, Pembrokeshire! and that is good ol Bob (The Rev. Bob Morgan)
He had some pearls of wisdom concerning Ieuan Wynn Jones impending election as FM!!

 
At 8:44 am, Blogger Clear Red Water said...

"Dear Mr Clear Red Water,

I believe that there is a little more to the red/green deal than you have read in the press. Basing your argument on the facts may pay more dividends."

Without wanting to divulge too much, i havent read it in the press i can assure you. Those are the three things on the table at the moment. Labour's manifesto and barnett, welsh lang act and referendum.

 
At 9:05 am, Blogger gwe said...

CWR - I doubt very much if this is the case, but if it is true, it is no basis for any serious coalition deal which must be a programme hammered out by both parties and not simply one party's maifesto with three sweeties added on.

 
At 12:58 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Read Cleckanndra.blogspot.com

 

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