Campaign killers and May the Fourthcasts
Friday, May 04, 2007

This campaign has taken the political manifesto to new levels. We've seen manifestos for absolutely everything: old people, young people, North Wales, South Wales, green stuff, sports stuff... you name it. Any excuse for a photo opportunity.

The four main manifestos were, in all honesty, boring enough. The 20+ supplementary ones were a complete waste of paper. They said absolutely nothing new.

Plaid were churning out manifestos quicker than an East Asian sweatshop churns our Burberry polo shirts. But they were all to blame so I'm not going to take points off any one party in particular.

As for the rest of the campaigns, here's my assessment:

Labour: Talked a lot about what they've already done and even more about who they don't want in power after the election. They didn't talk much about what they'd still like to do if the good people of Wales were to allow them.
Defining moments: 'saving' hospitals only the government could have been in a position to put under threat; imploding after that infamous leak.
Derek says: dark clouds overhead, competing weather fronts could lead to a turbulent period ahead.

Plaid Cymru: Slicker than ever before. Unfortunately, this meant we heard a lot about free laptops, a policy which still screams election gimmick no matter how hard they try and put a socialist-redistributive spin on it. Ahead in the debate on health, undoubtedly the number one issue in this election.
Defining moments: Ieuan Wyn Jones winning over the audience in both leaders debates even though he's as easy on the ear as a four year old's first violin lesson; weathering the storm on finances in the final few days.
Derek says: if the sun doesn't break through the clouds, expect sudden showers and a stark wet wake up call.

Conservatives: Made good use of their leader David Cameron. Whether or not that will have the desired 'effect' remains to be seen. Policy-lite, but sounding conciliatory enough to do the unthinkable and team up with Plaid in a rainbow coalition.
Defining moments: free lightbulbs - whose bright idea was that?; the gay thing - may actually earn them more votes.
Derek says: mild weather will continue, with possibly a few sunny spells in the North and West.

Lib Dems: Manifesto was late. When it finally arrived it was repetitive and verging on impenetrable. Used the same old tricks on their leaflets and devoted a lot of time and effort to Ceredigion, even though they've no chance of winning it.
Defining moments: the manifesto arriving; tackling hard on Labour's controversial and extraordinarily convenient last minute health pledge.
Derek says: no earthquakes forecast here, but if they team up again with Labour they could really rain on Plaid's parade.

What do you think? Do tell. And feel free to give up on the crappy weather analogies.

Labels: , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 12:07 am, ,


Only in my backyard
Friday, April 20, 2007

I blogged recently on the fact that for the first time in well over decade, Plaid Cymru currently have no policy on nuclear energy.

But there are two things we know for certain. One is that Plaid's leader Ieuan Wyn Jones backs a new nuclear power station in his own backyard, the other is that Plaid's pre-manifesto (released in March this year) categorically states: "Plaid Cymru does not support nuclear power."

There's an obvious tension between these two positions. You can't be for and against something at the same time. The solution? Pretend you were never against it.

At a local level, at least, Ieuan Wyn Jones now appears to be using the absence of a policy on nuclear energy in Plaid's manifesto to justify his support for the replacement of the Wylfa plant in Ynys Mon.

The Bangor & Anglesey Mail reports that during a recent hustings on the island, Conservative candidate James Roach accused Plaid Cymru of double standards. He said: "It's interesting that within their manifesto Plaid Cymru disagree with nuclear power apart from on Anglesey and although I do congratulate Mr Jones' dedication to the island, I think that's plain hypocrisy."

To which Ieuan Wyn responded: "There's no mention of this in our manifeto." Adding, "I support Wylfa B on certain conditions."

It is an odd tactic, I must confess. Plaid clearly hope that they can be vague and non-comittal on the national stage while allowing their leader free rein at a local level. But this is just the sort of thing Plaid accuse the other parties of doing.

Of course, politics in Wales is such that anti-nuclear voters in the Valleys neither know nor care what's being said in a hustings in Ynys Mon. Politicians and their bods are all too aware of this. And as long as they can get away with it they'll continue to fight this election campaign on multiple fronts. After all, as one insider told me recently, "there's nothing wrong with telling people what they want to hear."

Labels: , , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 4:39 pm, ,


Manifestos for dummies
Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Manifestos are to politics what play-acting is to football: manipulatory.

Before publishing manifestos, politicians can say 'I'm sorry, but you'll have to wait and see what's in our manifesto'. This means that they can get headlines out of all sorts of tosh that would never have made it in there in the first place.

After publishing manifestos, politicians can say 'I think you'll find it's in there somewhere'. And by the time even the most nimble-fingered journalist gets to the relevant part, they're confronted with some ambiguous sounding 'aspiration' and the moment has passed. Plaid's 2007 offering is an exception, but that's because it's been written by brainwashed seven year-olds (see picture).

Manifestos are always costed but then given out for free anyway. This time around, the four main parties have a whopping 17 manifestos between them. That's the equivalent of five table football pitches.

Politicians have special manifesto thesaurses, with an enormous section under vague implementing stuff type verbs. Consequently, manifestos are full of phrases like 'We will support the development of X' or 'We will develop the support of Y'.

And even though whole parties stand on the basis of their manifestos, they are often written by just one person. So if we do get a Tory government after May 3rd, it will be the nearest thing ever to a dictatorship under David Melding.

Or perhaps not, because most manifestos are forgotten until a week before the next election, when the government has to frantically try and deliver some of its promises. But that's OK, because nobody remembers them anyway. Much like medieval battle re-enactments, manifestos aren't meant for normal people.

Labels: , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 8:22 am, ,


Welsh Labour Manifesto in 12 Words
Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Ban stuff.

Children.

Free stuff.

Pensioners.

Mobile Mammas (??).

More of the same.

Labels: , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 9:28 am, ,


The facts about the Tories and devolution

Conservative Mid & West Wales candidate Glyn Davies has had an epiphany. You can be a Tory and pro-devolution. Moreover, you can be a Tory and an advocate of even more devolution.

Glyn wants full law-making powers for the national assembly. But while considered something of a maverick, he is still standing on a Conservative Party ticket in the forthcoming elections. So where does the Tory party stand on devolution?

Well, they led the No campaign in 1997 and their 1999 assembly election manifesto was laced with bitterness and pessimism. Smack bang at the top of the document, then leader Rod Richards wrote this: "The transfer of further powers from Westminster to the Assembly would lead to the fragmentation of Britain making European federalism easier for the government to achieve."

Eight years on, the Tories still aren't sure. And it's difficult to find the hype surrounding the big Welsh strides they might make this time around reflected in the manifesto. True, the Tories call for more powers, but they call for more powers in order to:

• seek to establish St. David’s Day as a national holiday;
• introduce a Welsh symbol on car number plates;
• ensure that a separate Welsh option appears on census forms together with a question on the use of Welsh;
• petition the Queen to establish a Welsh order of chivalry.

Not quite a nationalist's wet dream:)

This debate must surely have come up during the manifesto negotiations. I can only presume that the other Tory AMs don't share Glyn's enthusiasm while there are still ultra-Unionists in the ranks.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 12:36 am, ,


Vote for the Wilsh Liberol Demoncrats
Sunday, April 08, 2007

The pirty must lakely to be in guvernmunt after May 3rd are heving dificulty with they're spilling. Duznt exacly inspire confidens...

On another note, (everyone else has blogged about it so I suppose I should mention it too)... further proof today that Lembit 'it's always sunny in Transylvania' Opik is an electoral liability, according to the Wales on Sunday. If I could intervene here: as a moderately young person I've heard nothing but praise for the under-fire Welsh Lib Dem leader emanating from the lager-splashed lips of my peers. What's the big deal? Last I heard the Lib Dems were branding themselves as a party for the yoof. So, as my mates would say, 'fair play innit'.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 7:07 pm, ,


The evolution of Plaid's nuclear policy
Friday, April 06, 2007

1997 General Election Manifesto
"Nuclear energy is now a broken dream. The only safe way forward is to reduce the demand for energy and develop the use of renewables."

1999 Assembly Election Manifesto
"We will operate on the basis of a presumption against further open cast mining and nuclear power stations."

2001 General Election Manifesto
"As our dependence on fossil fuels must be reduced and since nuclear energy is not an acceptable option, we shall press for very substantial growth in renewable energy."

2003 Assembly Election Manifesto
"We will call for the devolution of responsibility for large-scale energy projects to the Assembly. This will enable us to block any new nuclear energy stations."

2005 General Election Manifesto
"Plaid Cymru the Party of Wales does not support new nuclear power stations."

2007 Pre-manifesto, Change for the Better
"Plaid Cymru does not support nuclear power."

2007 Assembly Election Manifesto
Zilch. Rien. Nothing. 何にも. Dim byd.

Why the glaring omission?

Labels: , , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 1:48 pm, ,


Liberal Democrat jokes
Thursday, April 05, 2007

On the day the Welsh Lib Dems launched their manifesto (it's 60 pages long so I'll come back to that), here's something I pinched from BBC Scotland Political Editor's new blog:

There’s an old Liberal Democrat joke. (No, not PR for Westminster - they’re serious about that.) It tells the tale of Lib Dems on a protest march - beards fluttering and sandals in synch, tramping proudly.

“What do we want?”, their leader yells. “The single transferable vote in multi member constituencies”, they chorus back.

“When do we want it?, bellows the boss. “In due course!”, they trill.

Made me chuckle:)

Anyone know of any other Lib Dem jokes?

Labels: , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 12:17 pm, ,


Who to vote for if you hate the assembly
Wednesday, April 04, 2007

UKIP continue their assembly election campaign today under the banner 'Abolish the Assembly and Leave The EU'. With a manifesto that looks like it's been knocked up by someone taking their first tentative steps into the world of Microsoft Office, UKIP may not appear to be much of the threat. But don't rule out a protetst vote having some impact.

That's because it's not all rosy in the squiggly tree meadows of the Tory heartlands. Remember, this is the first election the Conservatives will fight as an entirely pro-devolution party. They are in unchartertered territory and there are still die-hard Tories who think the whole idea stinks.

Last time round the Conservatives did well despite remaining unconvinced about devolution, so UKIP will be hoping that it can soak up the votes of Tory discontents. Ironically, the beneficiaries of such a scenario could be Plaid Cymru, a party whose aims are inimical to almost everything UKIP stands for.

Labels: , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 8:45 am, ,


Five issues Labour can't duck
Wednesday, February 21, 2007

The countdown to the Welsh assembly elections begins in earnest today as Labour meet in Llandudno for their spring conference. Here are five issues they'll have to address if those elections and their aftermath aren't to be an unmitigated disaster:

1. Worst case scenario

Will Rhodri Morgan resign if Labour net only 24 seats? And who will replace him?

2. National Health Shambles

Already committed to a controversial long-term plan and with little new money, how can Labour rescue the health service?

3. Enemy No.1

Election strategy: this week they've been painting it as a straight race with the Tories. But is it wise to overlook Plaid? Attacking the Tories might serve only to motivate their vote, while voters on the left float over to Plaid.

4. "Noises off" getting louder

Rhodri Morgan would rather Tony Blair kept his nose out of the Welsh assembly campaign. But guess who's making an appearance at the conference on Friday? Can Welsh Labour avoid being affected by the scandal and fatigue of the Westminster administration?

5. Said and not done

How can Labour convince people to believe their election promises after the debacle over the 2003 pledge to provide free personal care?

Please feel free to add your own Labour conundrums in the comments section.

Labels: , , , , , ,

posted by Blamerbell @ 3:53 pm, ,